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modeling and comparison of count data containing zero values: a case study of Setipinna taty in the south inshore of Zhejiang, China

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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2021年第34期28卷 46827-46837页

作者： Liu, Xiaoxue Gao, Chunxia Zhao, Jing Tian, Siquan Ye, Shen Ma, Jin Shanghai Ocean Univ Coll Marine Sci Shanghai 201306 Peoples R China Shanghai Ocean Univ Natl Engn Res Ctr Ocean Fisheries Shanghai 201306 Peoples R China Shanghai Ocean Univ Key Lab Sustainable Exploitat Ocean Fisheries Res Shanghai 201306 Peoples R China Zhejiang Mariculture Res Inst Wenzhou 325005 Peoples R China

To effectively use the fishery count data containing zero values, Setipinna taty in the coastal waters of south inshore of Zhejiang in China from 2017 to 2019 was used in this study. Environmental factors, such as water temperature, water depth, and salinity, were selected to establish models and compare based on the generalized additive model (GAM) of the Tweedie distribution (Tweedie-GAM) and two-stage GAM, Ad hoc method, and generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). The results showed that each station accounted for a higher proportion of zero values and the two-stage GAM model had a higher deviation interpretation rate, and GAM I and GAM II had 19.6% and 60.4% deviation interpretation rates. The cross-validation results showed that the performance evaluation of the two-stage GAM model was the best and showed the highest R-2 value, the lowest average absolute error, and the relatively small root mean square error. This study found that the abundance of S. taty in the south inshore of Zhejiang was highest at around 21 degrees C and 18 degrees C in spring and autumn, and the abundance reached the highest at a water depth of about 20 m. In spatial distribution, the high value of the abundance of S. taty was mostly distributed in the coastal waters in the south of 28 degrees N. In future research, models should be fitted and compared for different sampling zero-value ratios, and more environmental factors should be included to accurately find an optimal model and provide references for the conservation of fishery resources.

关键词： Count data Zero values generalized additive model Optimal model Two-stage GAM Setipinna taty

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Significance between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and COVID-19 infections: probable evidences in India

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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2021年第30期28卷 40474-40495页

作者： Sahoo, Mrunmayee Manjari Lovely Profess Univ Domain Environm & Water Resources Engn SCE Phagwara 144411 India

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease represents the causative agent with a potentially fatal risk which is having great global human health concern. Earlier studies suggested that air pollutants and meteorological factors were considered as the risk factors for acute respiratory infection, which carries harmful pathogens and affects the immunity. The study intended to explore the correlation between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and the daily reported infected cases caused by novel coronavirus in India. The daily positive infected cases, concentrations of air pollutants, and meteorological factors in 288 districts were collected from January 30, 2020, to April 23, 2020, in India. Spearman's correlation and generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to investigate the correlations of four air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2) and eight meteorological factors (Temp, DTR, RH, AH, AP, RF, WS, and WD) with COVID-19-infected cases. The study indicated that a 10 mu g/m(3) increase during (Lag0-14) in PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 resulted in 2.21% (95%CI: 1.13 to 3.29), 2.67% (95% CI: 0.33 to 5.01), and 4.56 (95% CI: 2.22 to 6.90) increase in daily counts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID 19)-infected cases respectively. However, only 1 unit increase in meteorological factor levels in case of daily mean temperature and DTR during (Lag0-14) associated with 3.78% (95%CI: 1.81 to 5.75) and 1.82% (95% CI: -1.74 to 5.38) rise of COVID-19-infected cases respectively. In addition, SO2 and relative humidity were negatively associated with COVID-19-infected cases at Lag0-14 with decrease of 7.23% (95% CI: -10.99 to -3.47) and 1.11% (95% CI: -3.45 to 1.23) for SO2 and for relative humidity respectively. The study recommended that there are significant correlations between air pollutants and meteorological factors with COVID-19-infected cases, which substantially explain the effect of national lockdown and suggested positive implications for

关键词： Air pollution Meteorological factors COVID-19 Spearman's correlation generalized additive model

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Use of generalized additive model to investigate key abiotic factors affecting microcystin cellular quotas in heavy bloom areas of Lake Taihu

Use of generalized additive model to investigate key abiotic...

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中国南方渔业论坛暨第二十九次学术会议

作者： Min Tao Ping Xie Jun Chen Boqiang Qin Dawen Zhang Yuan Niu Meng Zhang Qing Wang Laiyan Wu Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotec Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of SciencesNanjing 210008P.R.China

Lake Taihu is the third largest freshwater lake in China and is suffering from serious cyanobacterial blooms with the associated drinking water contamination by microcystin (MC) for millions of *** far, most studies on MCs have been limited to two small bays, while systematic research on the whole-lake is *** explain the variations in MC concentrations during cyanobacterial bloom, a large-scale survey at 30 sites across the lake was conducted monthly in *** health risks of MC exposure were high, especially in the northern *** Microcystis abundance and MC cellular quotas presented positive correlations with MC concentration in the bloom seasons, suggesting that the toxic risks during Microcystis proliferations were affected by variations in both Microcystis density and MC production per Microcystis *** of powerful predictive modeling tool named generalized additive model (GAM) helped visualize significant effects of abiotic factors related to carbon fixation and proliferation of Microcystis (conductivity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) , water temperature and pH) on MC cellular quotas from recruitment period of Microcystis to the bloom seasons, suggesting the possible use of these factors, in addition to Microcystis abundance, as warning signs to predict toxic events in the *** interesting relationship between macrophytes and MC cellular quotas of Microcystis (i.e., high MC cellular quotas in the presence of macrophytes) needs further investigation.

关键词： Microcystins MC cellular quotas generalized additive model Environmental factors Carbon fixation Health risks Lake Taihu

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Interactions in statistical models: Three things to know

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METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 2021年第12期12卷 2287-2297页

作者： Duncan, Richard P. Kefford, Ben J. Univ Canberra Inst Appl Ecol Ctr Conservat Ecol & Genom Canberra ACT Australia Univ Canberra Inst Appl Ecol Ctr Appl Water Sci Canberra ACT Australia

In ecological studies, the magnitude and direction of interactions among two continuous explanatory variables x(1) and x(2) are commonly evaluated by fitting a statistical model of the form y=beta 0+beta 1x1+beta 2x2+beta 3x1x2, where x(1)x(2) is an interaction term that measures departure from additivity of effects. Here, we highlight three issues associated with evaluating interactions in statistical models of this form that appear underappreciated in the ecological literature, but which have important implications for how we fit models and correctly identify interactions. First, the scale (additive or multiplicative) on which the outcome variable y is modelled matters. Transformations that change the scale of analysis alter the interpretation of interaction terms and can hide interactions of ecological importance. Second, spurious interactions can arise when explanatory variables are correlated and there are unmodeled nonlinear relationships, a situation likely to arise when fitting statistical models to non-experimental data. Third, interactions can be nonlinear such that the interaction term x(1)x(2) will not capture all interactions of ecological interest. We illustrate how each of these issues can result in potentially misleading outcomes using examples linked to the impacts of multiple stressors on biodiversity. We provide recommendations aimed at correctly identifying interaction effects from statistical models.

关键词： antagonistic dominance ecological interactions generalized additive model multiple stressors statistical interaction stress synergistic

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Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) presence is reduced during tidal turbine operation

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AQUATIC CONSERVATION-MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS 2021年第12期31卷 3543-3553页

作者： Palmer, Laura Gillespie, Douglas MacAulay, Jamie D. J. Sparling, Carol E. Russell, Debbie J. F. Hastie, Gordon D. Univ St Andrews Scottish Oceans Inst Sea Mammal Res Unit St Andrews Fife Scotland Univ St Andrews Scottish Oceans Inst SMRU Consulting St Andrews Fife Scotland

Uptake of tidal turbine technology to generate renewable energy has been partly limited by poor understanding of ecological impacts, including the potential for collisions between cetaceans and rotating turbine blades. To address this concern, it is necessary to identify whether cetaceans behaviourally respond to operating turbines. A turbine in Scotland was instrumented with hydrophones to detect cetacean vocalizations. A generalized additive model was used to investigate temporal variability in harbour porpoise presence close to the turbine. As there were incidentally periods when the turbine was not operating, it was possible to determine the effect of blade rotation, whilst accounting for the potentially confounding effect of tidal flow. Harbour porpoise presence varied intra-annually, diurnally and with tidal state. Peak presence occurred during winter (September-February), at night and at high flow speeds on the flood tide. Porpoises exhibited significant avoidance of the tidal turbine when it was operating;avoidance increased with flow speed, whereby mean porpoise presence was reduced by up to 78% (95% CIs, 51%, 91%) on the flood tide and up to 64% (95% CI, 3%, 91%) on the ebb tide. The temporal variability in encounter rate in the present study highlights that collision risk assessments assuming static densities probably fail to capture the temporal variability of collision risk. Future studies should conduct long-term baseline monitoring to derive encounter rates at larger spatio-temporal scales and as a reference from which to measure change in habitat use. It is also critical that the generality of the avoidance rates presented here is assessed for other sites, turbine types, array sizes and cetacean species. As the tidal industry expands, it will be important to reconcile the benefits of avoidance responses from a collision risk perspective with potential chronic effects of displacement from, or barriers between, important habitats.

关键词： avoidance rate collision risk generalized additive model marine renewable energy passive acoustics porpoise tidal turbines

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Statistical Analysis and modeling of Suspended Sediment Yield Dependence on Environmental Conditions

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WATER 2023年第14期15卷 2639-2639页

作者： Yermolaev, Oleg Mukharamova, Svetlana Kazan Fed Univ Inst Environm Sci 5 Tovarisheskaya St Kazan 420097 Russia

This paper describes the modelling of suspended sediment yield in a plains region in the European part of Russia (EPR) and its prediction for ungauged catchments. The studied plains area, excluding the Caucasus and Ural Mountains, covers 3.5 x 10(6) km(2) of the total area of about 3.8 x 10(6) km(2). Multiple regression methods, such as a generalized linear model (GLM) and a generalized additive model (GAM), are used to construct the models. The research methodology is based on a catchment approach. There are 49,516 river basins with an average area of about 75 km(2) in the plain regions. The suspended sediment yield geodatabase contains data from 385 gauging stations. The linear GLM model of suspended sediment yield explains about 50% and the GAM model about 65% of the data variability (R-squared adjusted). The models include mean slope steepness, percentage of arable land, runoff per unit area, catchment area, soil rank and catchment soil erodibility as significant predictors. They also include a zonal-sectoral gradient (the sum of active temperatures and the standard deviation of air temperature, or directly by geographic coordinates). A GAM model is trained to predict suspended sediment yields for unexplored areas of the area. The paper presents the results of extrapolating suspended sediment yield values to ungauged river basins in a plains region of the EPR. For the first time for such a large area, the models built and the use of the basin approach made it possible to predict runoff values for hydrologically unexplored river basins.

关键词： suspended sediment yield basin approach GIS generalized linear model generalized additive model

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Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy

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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2021年第35期28卷 48459-48470页

作者： Khursheed, Ambreen Mustafa, Faisal Akhtar, Ayesha Univ Cent Punjab UCP Business Sch Lahore Pakistan Univ Cent Punjab Lahore Pakistan

The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions;however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way.

关键词： COVID-19 Temperature generalized additive model Humidity Air quality

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Estimation of economic costs of air pollution caused by motor vehicles in Iran (Isfahan)

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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2021年第47期28卷 66535-66555页

作者： Soleimani, Mozhgan Akbari, Nematollah Saffari, Babak Haghshenas, Hosein Univ Isfahan Dept Econ Esfahan Iran Isfahan Univ Technol Dept Transportat Engn Esfahan Iran

Since mobile sources are one of the most important sources of air pollution, this paper tries to estimate the health effects and economic burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations from motor vehicles. In this regard, we calculate the economic costs of air pollution emitted by vehicles in Isfahan over the period from March 2018 to March 2020. The concentration of urban traffic pollution based on the generalized additive model (GAM) as well as spatial distribution of pollution is estimated. Health effects are evaluated using AirQ(+) updated by the WHO European Centre for Environment and Health. Economic burden of mortality attributable air pollution from traffic is calculated using value of a statistical life (VOSL), and the value of life years (VOLY) approach. The results indicated that the number of deaths attributable to PM2.5 from motor vehicles in these two consecutive years was 136 (95%CI: 89-179), and 147 cases (95%CI: 96-194), respectively. The number of years of life lost due to premature death from air pollution was 2079 years annually. The economic costs imposed under VOSL approach were on average USD 51.7 (95%CI: 43-75) million per year, and according to VOLY approach USD 11.5 (95%CI: 9-13) million per year. These results help to analyze the cost-benefit and prioritize control measures to reduce air pollution. In addition, combination of these results with other externality cost of road traffic can take account for urban transportation planning.

关键词： Economic valuation generalized additive model AirQ(+) Value of a statistical life Fine particulate matter Urban transportation

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Detecting the Feeding Habitat Zone of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus Alalunga) in the Southern Indian Ocean using Multisatellite Remote Sensing Data

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JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY-TAIWAN 2021年第6期29卷 795-809页

作者： Mondal, Sandipan Lan, Yang-Chi Lee, Ming-An Wang, Yi-Chen Semedi, Bambang Su, Wan-Ya Natl Taiwan Ocean Univ Dept Environm Biol & Fisheries Sci Keelung Taiwan Taiwan Fisheries Res Inst Coastal & Offshore Resources Res Ctr Kaohsiung Taiwan Natl Taiwan Ocean Univ Ctr Excellence Ocean Engn Keelung Taiwan Brawijaya Univ Fisheries & Marine Sci Fac Malang East Java Indonesia

Remote sensing is an effective method for identifying potential feeding habitat zones. Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of albacore (ALB) tuna were studied using Taiwan longline fisheries data from 2009 to 2014. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to compile a fishery database and statistically explore the relationship between distribution and environmental factors. Sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration (SSC), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), mixed layer depth (MLD), and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) were examined. The results indicated SST as the largest contributor on ALB distribution, followed by SSS and SSC. Catches per unit effort (CPUE) values indicated that ALB tuna were primarily distributed at 20 degrees E-110 degrees E and 25 degrees S-40 degrees S. The SST and SSS ranges for higher ALB abundance were 17-19 degrees C and 35.1-35.5 psu, respectively. SSC was positively related to CPUE as a result of ALB tuna habits in the current location during the study period (0.1-0.25 mg m(-3)). The predicted CPUE indicated that the potential feeding habitat zones were 35 degrees S-40 degrees S and 25 degrees S-30 degrees S during March and April-August, respectively. These findings provide preliminary insight into the key environmental features affecting the ALB distribution in the southern Indian Ocean.

关键词： Albacore Sea surface temperature Sea color generalized additive model Long-line

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An Alternative Method for Estimation of Stand-Level Biomass for Three Conifer Species in Northeast China

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FORESTS 2023年第6期14卷 1274-1274页

作者： Xin, Shidong Shahzad, Muhammad Khurram Mahardika, Surya Bagus Wang, Weifang Jiang, Lichun Northeast Forestry Univ Sch Forestry Dept Forest Management Harbin 150040 Peoples R China Punjab Forestry Wildlife & Fisheries Dept Multan 60000 Pakistan Northeast Forestry Univ Sch Forestry Key Lab Sustainable Forest Ecosyst Management Minist Educ Harbin 150040 Peoples R China

Accurate large-scale biomass prediction is crucial for assessing forest carbon storage and dynamics. It can also inform sustainable forest management practices and climate change mitigation efforts. However, stand-level biomass models are still scarce worldwide. Our study aims to introduce the generalized additive model (GAM) as a convenient and efficient approach for forest biomass estimation. Data from 311 sample plots of three conifer species in northeastern China were used to evaluate the performance of the GAM model and compare it with traditional nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR) models in predicting stand biomass, including total, aboveground, and component biomass. The results indicated that the goodness of fit of GAM was better than that of NSUR in two model systems. In the majority of cases, the scatter plots and prediction performance revealed that the stand total and component biomass models utilizing GAM outperformed those based on NSUR. Disregarding heteroscedasticity and requiring fewer statistical assumptions provide additional support for the replacement of NSUR-based models with GAM-based models. This study implies that the GAM approach has greater potential for developing a system of stand biomass models.

关键词： conifer species generalized additive model nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression stand-level biomass

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