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Short-term effect of fine particulate matter and ozone on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality in Lishui district, China

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BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 2021年第1期21卷 1661-1661页

作者： Chen, Yuqi Jiao, Zhigang Chen, Ping Fan, Lijun Zhou, Xudan Pu, Yuepu Du, Wei Yin, Lihong Southeast Univ Sch Publ Hlth Key Lab Environm Med Engn Minist Educ Nanjing 210009 Peoples R China Lishui Smart City Operating Command Ctr Lishui 211200 Peoples R China

Background In recent years, air pollution has become an imminent problem in China. Few studies have investigated the impact of air pollution on the mortality of the middle-aged and elderly people. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the impact of PM2.5 (fine particulate matter) and O-3 (ozone) on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality of the middle-aged and elderly people in Lishui District of Nanjing and provide the evidence for potential prevention and control measures of air pollution. Method Using daily mortality and atmospheric monitoring data from 2015 to 2019, we applied a generalized additive model with time-series analysis to evaluate the association of PM2.5 and O-3 exposure with daily non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality in Lishui District. Using the population attributable fractions to estimate the death burden caused by short-term exposure to O-3 and PM2.5?. Result For every 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5, non-accidental mortality increased 0.94% with 95% confidence interval (CI) between 0.05 and 1.83%, and PM2.5 had a more profound impact on females than males. For every 10 mu g/m(3) increase in O-3, respiratory mortality increased 1.35% (95% CI: 0.05, 2.66%) and O-3 had a more profound impact on males than females. Compared with the single pollutant model, impact of the two-pollutant model on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality slightly decreased. In summer and winter as opposed to the other seasons, O-3 had a more obvious impact on non-accidental mortality. The population attributable fractions of non-accidental mortality were 0.84% (95% CI:0.00, 1.63%) for PM2.5 and respiratory mortality were 0.14% (95% CI:0.01, 0.26%) for O-3. For every 10 mu g/m(3) decrease in PM2.5, 122 (95% CI: 6, 237) non-accidental deaths could be avoided. For every 10 mu g/m(3) decrease in O-3, 10 (95% CI: 1, 38) respiratory deaths could be avoided. Conclusion PM2.5 and O-3 could significantly increase the risk of non-accidental and

关键词： Air pollution O-3 PM2.5 generalized additive model Mortality

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Estimating model-based nonnegative population marginal means in application to medical expenditures covered by different health care policies - A study on Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

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STATISTICAL METHODS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH 2021年第1期30卷 299-315页

作者： Tian, Mingmei Yu, Jihnhee SUNY Buffalo Dept Biostat Buffalo NY USA

The medical care expenditure is historically an important public health issue, which greatly impacts the government's health policies as well as patients' financial and medical decisions. In population health research, we commonly discretize a numeric attribute to a few ordinal groups to examine population characteristics. Oftentimes, the population marginal mean estimation by the ANOVA approach is inflexible since it uses pre-defined grouping of the covariate. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the population marginal mean using the B-spline-based regression in a manner of a generalized additive model as an alternative for the ANOVA. Since the medical expenditure is always nonnegative, a Bayesian approach is also implemented for the nonnegative constraint on the marginal mean estimates. The proposed method is flexible to estimate marginal means for user-specified grouping after model fitting in a post-hoc manner, a clear advantage over the ANOVA approach. We show that this method is inferentially superior to the ANOVA through theoretical investigations and an extensive Monte Carlo study. The real data analysis using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data assisted by some visualization tools demonstrates an applicability of the proposed approach and leads us some interesting observations that may be relevant to public health discussions.

关键词： B-spline generalized additive model nonnegative constraints Bayesian method Medical Expenditure Panel Survey population marginal mean survey design

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Non-linear relationships and interactions of meteorological factors on mumps in Jinan, China

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021年第4期65卷 555-563页

作者： Lin, Shaoqian Ruan, Shiman Geng, Xingyi Song, Kaijun Cui, Liangliang Liu, Xiaoxue Zhang, Yingjian Cao, Meng Zhang, Ying Jinan Municipal Ctr Dis Control & Prevent 2 Weiliu Rd Jinan 250021 Peoples R China Univ Sydney Sch Publ Hlth Fac Med & Hlth Camperdown NSW 2006 Australia

Although vaccination is available, mumps remains a public health concern in many countries including China. Previous studies have indicated the impact of meteorological factors and mumps, but findings vary across different regions with limited evidence to inform local public health responses. We aim to examine the impacts of meteorological variables on mumps in Jinan, a temperate city of China, and explore the interactions of temperature with humidity or wind speed. Weekly meteorological data and notified cases of mumps in Jinan were collected for 2014-2018. Regression analyses using the generalized additive model were performed with considerations of multicollinearity, lag effects, school holidays, long-term trend, and seasonality. A stratification model was applied to investigate the interaction. We found a non-linear relationship between weekly mean temperature and the number of cases. Between 1.2 and 24.5 degrees C, the excess risk (ER) of mumps for a 1 degrees C increase in weekly mean temperature was 3.08% (95% CI 1.32 to 4.87%) at 0-week lag. The lagged effects could last for 3 weeks. There were interactions between mean temperature and relative humidity or wind speed. The effect of mean temperature was enhanced in days with low relative humidity or high wind speed. This study suggests that temperature is positively associated with mumps cases with thresholds in the temperate city of China, and the effect can be modified by relative humidity and wind speed and is independent of vaccine coverage. Findings could be integrated into current early warning systems of mumps in order to protect people's health from the risk of changing climate.

关键词： Meteorological factors Mumps generalized additive model Time series analysis

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Accurate estimation of lake levels by the spatio-temporal modeling of satellite altimetry data

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REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT 2023年第1期295卷

作者： Hu, Yuanlin Zhou, Qi Li, Tao Wang, Hansheng Jiang, Liming Shen, Xiang Chinese Acad Sci Innovat Acad Precis Measurement Sci & Technol State Key Lab Geodesy & Earths Dynam Wuhan 430077 Hubei Peoples R China China Univ Geosci Sch Geog & Informat Engn Wuhan 430074 Hubei Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China

Satellite altimetry is currently one of the most widely used techniques for monitoring lake water levels. Raw altimetry measurements are generally delivered in an ellipsoid height system, while lake heights are finally required in a local level height system to ensure the lake surface being strictly flat under the physical constraints of both gravity and non-gravity factors. Therefore, there is always a need for height system transformation of altimetry data. Many of the previous studies have used orthometric heights in an approximate manner in the altimetric data processing. The geoid errors, together with other error sources, can introduce significant biases into water level estimations. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal regression method to calculate orthometric height to level height (O2L) differences, which can be used to yield accurate lake levels from satellite altimetry data. In the experiments conducted in this study, we chose ICESat-2 data to train the O2L bias correction model, and evaluated the algorithm performance on two large lakes in central Asian (Issyk-Kul and Baikal lakes) and one lake in North America (Lake Michigan). The experimental results indicate that the spatiotemporal modeling method performs better than the traditional spatial modeling method in terms of regression accuracy, and the water levels derived from the new method are much closer to in-situ gauging measurements. Influenced by O2L bias, there is often a jitter phenomenon in the time series of lake levels, and the results of different satellites are, accordingly, not mutually consistent. A visual analysis reveals that the spatio-temporal modeling method can greatly reduce the high-frequency bias.

关键词： Altimetry ICESat-2 Geoid Water level generalized additive model

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Direct and Carry-Over Effects of Temperature Drive Height Increment of Scots Pine in the North-Eastern Baltic Sea Region

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FORESTS 2023年第4期14卷 791页

作者： Matisons, Roberts Metslaid, Sandra Hordo, Maris Kask, Regino Kangur, Ahto Salminen, Hannu Jansons, Aris Latvian State Forest Res Inst Silava 111 Rigas Str LV-2169 Salaspils Latvia Estonian Univ Life Sci Inst Forestry & Engn Kreutzwaldi 5 EE-51006 Tartu Estonia Finnish Inst Nat Resources LUKE Ounasjoentie 6 Rovaniemi 96200 Finland

In the eastern Baltic region, the abundance of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has been predicted to shift due to changes in height growth and competitiveness. Under such conditions, the relationships between tree growth and meteorological/climatic conditions can provide valuable information on the ecological plasticity and adaptability of local populations. Regarding the climatic dependence of productivity and competitiveness, height increment is an informative proxy, although data gathering is laborious. In this study, meteorological sensitivity of the height increment of Scots pine across the climatic gradient of north-eastern Baltic region was assessed by the means of timeseries deconstruction and generalized additive regression. Previously published time series from sites in Latvia, Estonia, and Finland were reanalysed. The local linear weather-growth relationships showed gradual changes in sensitivity to low summer temperature to conditions related to water availability in summer in Finland and the Baltics, respectively. The regional generalization of responses indicated the prevalence of temporary and spatially stationary effects of temperature in winter and summer, which had a complex influence (direct and carry-over effects). The prevailing linearity of the regional responses suggested that, regarding height growth, the studied populations appeared adapted to a wider climatic gradient than the studied one.

关键词： nonlinear response generalized additive model climatic gradient time series analysis regional analysis inter-annual variation

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Dimensionality reduction for regional flood frequency analysis: Linear versus nonlinear methods

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HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 2023年第4期37卷 e14864-e14864页

作者： Haddad, K. Rahman, A. Western Sydney Univ Sch Engn Design & Built Environm Bldg XBRoom 3-43Locked Bag 1797 Penrith NSW 2751 Australia

Regional flood frequency analysis is still an important area of hydrology research as there are many ungauged catchments. The majority of hydrological methods in regional flood frequency analysis involve complex non-linear relationships between predictor variables and flood characteristics. In the past, dimensionality reduction techniques based on linear methods such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA) were used in regional flood frequency analysis to delineate hydrological clusters. Non-linear dimensionality reduction techniques, such as KCCA and multidimensional scaling (MDS), have been used in several fields of science, but not explicitly in regional flood frequency analysis. To determine hydrologically similar clusters, the approaches considered in this article use CCA, KCCA, and MDS as dimensionality reduction techniques in conjunction with Gaussian mixture models (GMM). Log-linear regression and generalized additive models are then applied to the hydrological clusters to evaluate regional flood frequency analysis. A comparison of linear and non-linear (NL) methods is performed using data from Victoria, Australia, to demonstrate the benefit of these methods. It has been found that the non-linear frameworks of multi-dimensional scaling with Gaussian mixture model-non-linear (MDSGMM-NL) and KCCA with Gaussian mixture model-non-linear (KCCAGMM-NL), as well as the mixed frameworks (i.e. KCCA and Gaussian mixture model-non-linear [CCAGMM-NL]), can be used to represent the non-linear complexities of hydrological processes in regional flood frequency analysis.

关键词： Australia dimensionality reduction generalized additive model kernel canonical correlation analysis multidimensional scaling regional flood frequency analysis ungauged basins

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Improving the Efficiency of Hedge Trading Using Higher-Order Standardized Weather Derivatives for Wind Power

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ENERGIES 2023年第7期16卷 3112页

作者： Matsumoto, Takuji Yamada, Yuji Kanazawa Univ Fac Transdisciplinary Sci Innovat Kanazawa 9201192 Japan Univ Tsukuba Fac Business Sci Tokyo 1120012 Japan

Since the future output of wind power generation is uncertain due to weather conditions, there is an increasing need to manage the risks associated with wind power businesses, which have been increasingly implemented in recent years. This study introduces multiple weather derivatives of wind speed and temperature and examines their effectiveness in reducing (hedging) the fluctuation risk of future cash flows attributed to wind power generation. Given the diversification of hedgers and hedging needs, we propose new standardized derivatives with higher-order monomial payoff functions, such as "wind speed cubic derivatives" and "wind speed and temperature cross-derivatives," to minimize the cash flow variance and develop a market-trading scheme to practically use these derivatives in wind power businesses. In particular, while demonstrating the importance of standardizing weather derivatives regarding market liquidity and efficiency, we propose a strategy to narrow down the required number (or volume) of traded instruments and improve trading efficiency by utilizing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Empirical analysis reveals that higher-order, multivariate standardized derivatives can not only enhance the out-of-sample hedge effect but also help reduce trading volume. The results suggest that diversification of hedging instruments increases transaction flexibility and helps wind power generators find more efficient portfolios, which can be generalized to risk management practices in other businesses.

关键词： efficient frontier generalized additive model LASSO regression optimal hedging weather derivatives wind power

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Short-term effect of NO2 on outpatient visits for dermatologic diseases in Xinxiang, China: a time-series study

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ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH 2021年第9期43卷 3429-3439页

作者： Chao, Ling Lu, Mengxue An, Zhen Li, Juan Li, Yuchun Zhao, Qian Wang, Yinbiao Liu, Yue Wu, Weidong Song, Jie Xinxiang Med Univ Sch Publ Hlth Henan Int Collaborat Lab Hlth Effects & Intervent Xinxiang 453003 Henan Peoples R China Natl Inst Environm Hlth Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent Beijing 100021 Peoples R China

Objectives As the largest organ of the human body, the skin is the major exposure route of NO2. However, the evidence for a relationship between NO2 exposure and dermatologic diseases (DMs) is limited. This time-series study was conducted to assess the short-term effect of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure on DMs outpatient visits in Xinxiang, China. Methods Daily recordings of NO2 concentrations, meteorological data, and the outpatient visits data for DMs were collected in Xinxiang from January 1st, 2015, to December 31st, 2018. The analysis method used was based on the generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson regression to investigate the relationship between NO2 exposure and DMs outpatient visits. Several covariates, such as long-term trends, seasonality, and weather conditions were controlled. Results A total of 164,270 DMs outpatients were recorded. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in NO2 concentrations during the period was associated with a 1.86% increase in DMs outpatient visits (95% confidence intervals [Cl]: 1.06-2.66%). The effect was stronger (around 6 times) in the cool seasons than in warmer seasons and younger patients (< 15 years of age) appeared to be more vulnerable. Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that short-term exposure to NO2 increases the risk of DMs in Xinxiang, China, especially in the cool seasons. Policymakers should implement more stringent air quality standards to improve air quality.

关键词： Skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases NO2 Acute effect generalized additive model Hospital outpatients

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The multiscale response of global cropland cropping intensity to urban expansion

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AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 2024年 221卷

作者： Ma, Chen Li, Manchun Jiang, Penghui Nanjing Univ Sch Geog & Ocean Sci Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Geog Informat Sci & Technol Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Minist Nat Resources Key Lab Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applicat Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Collaborat Innovat Ctr South Sea Studies Nanjing 210023 Peoples R China Nanjing Agr Univ Coll Publ Adm Nanjing 210095 Peoples R China MNR Observat Res Stn Land Ecol & Land Use Yangtze Rive Nanjing 210017 Peoples R China Nanjing Agr Univ China Resources & Environm & Dev Acad REDA Nanjing 210095 Peoples R China

CONTEXT: Urban expansion(UE) and multiple cropping(MC) are key factors in anthropogenic impacts on global environmental change. However, the multi-scale response patterns of UE and MC have not yet been revealed, and how urbanization affects cropland intensification is still not deeply explored. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the spatial and temporal trends in global UE and MC and analyses the multi- scale response patterns of both. METHODS: The GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform was used to count global cropland cropping intensity (CCI) and impervious surface rasters on an image-by-image basis, while GIS was employed for spatial analyses, and the generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to inscribe variable response trajectories. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The global multiple cropping index(MCI) increased significantly (by 4.1 %) over the period 2001-2019, with growth in double- and triple-cropped cropland dominating this change. Double cropping, as a widespread global farming strategy, has led to a shift towards the intensification of agriculture, with countries in the northern hemisphere contributing more. Global UE significantly expands to twice the baseline level at an average annual growth rate of 2.42 x 10(4) km(2) over the period 2001-2019, with the expansion of world-class urban agglomerations in China, the United States and Europe dominates this trend. The spatial clustering of MC and UE has continued to intensify, with high-intensity cropping strategies progressively clustering towards areas of significant UE, and this tendency has a clear decreasing urban-rural gradient effect. The global CCI grows significantly and non-linearly with UE, but an important inflection point in the growth trajectory has occurred under the influence of threshold effects. Developed countries tend to be more flexible in their cropping intensity strategies as they move forward with urbanization. There is a clear increasing effect of the urban-rural gradient in the degree of non-

关键词： Multiple cropping Urban expansion Changing trends Spatiotemporal coupling generalized additive model

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Post-settlement growth and sexual dimorphism in the size and proportion of the body of the varunid crab Gaetice depressus (De Haan, 1833) (Decapoda: Brachyura: Varunidae) based on laboratory-reared material

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JOURNAL OF CRUSTACEAN BIOLOGY 2024年第2期44卷 ruae033-ruae033页

作者： Hamasaki, Katsuyuki Takeda, Yuji Dan, Shigeki Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol Dept Marine Biosci Minato Tokyo 1088477 Japan

We investigated post-settlement growth patterns and sexual dimorphism in the carapace, pelon, and cheliped dimensions of the varunid crab Gaetice depressus (De Haan, 1833). We reared crabs in the laboratory from hatching through megalopae to the first to tenth instars, and measurements were made of exuviae or specimens of crabs that successively molted. The males were larger than the females in all instars. The molt increments of carapace width (CW) and carapace length (CL) did not differ between the sexes;the former decreased with growth, especially up to similar to 3-4 mm, whereas the latter did not change with growth. This may be due to the rapid growth in CW compared to CL during early ontogeny. The proportion of CW to CL was larger in the females than in the males, and the rate of increase in pleon width accelerated greatly after growth to similar to 4 mm CW. Cheliped dimensions were larger in males than in females, probably as a consequence of sexual selection. Cheliped propodus length and width increased with growth in both sexes, but the rates of increase tended to decelerate after similar to 7 mm CW in females. This indicates that females may allocate more energy to pleon growth while limiting cheliped growth.

关键词： carapace cheliped Crustacea generalized additive model intermolt period molt increment pleon sexual selection

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