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Transboundary air pollution and environmental justice: Vancouver and Seattle compared

GEOJOURNAL 2010年第6期75卷 595-608页

作者： Su, Jason Larson, Timothy Gould, Timothy Cohen, Martin Buzzelli, Michael Univ Calif Berkeley Sch Publ Hlth Dept Environm Hlth Sci Berkeley CA 94720 USA Univ Washington Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Western Ontario London ON Canada

This paper comparatively analyzes the association between urban neighborhood socioeconomic markers and ambient air pollution in Vancouver and Seattle, the two largest urban regions in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound (GB-PS) international airshed. Given their similarities and common airshed, Vancouver and Seattle are useful comparators addressing not only whether socioeconomic gradients exist in urban environmental quality but also identifying clues to differences in these gradients between Canadian and American cities. Large air quality sampling campaigns and pollution regression mapping provide the pollution data, in this case nitrogen dioxide-a marker of traffic emissions considered the most important air pollutant for human health in the typical North American city. Pollution data are combined with neighborhood census data for regression and spatial analyses. Median household income is the most consistent correlate of air pollution in both cities, including their most polluted neighborhoods, although neighborhoods marked by immigrant populations do not correlate with high pollution levels in Vancouver as they do in Seattle.

关键词： Transboundary Environmental justice Land use regression Spatial dependency Lagrange multiplier generalized additive model

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Alien invaders and reptile traders: what drives the live animal trade in South Africa?

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ANIMAL CONSERVATION 2010年第Sup1期13卷 24-32页

作者： van Wilgen, N. J. Wilson, J. R. U. Elith, J. Wintle, B. A. Richardson, D. M. Univ Stellenbosch Ctr Invas Biol Dept Bot & Zool ZA-7602 Matieland South Africa Univ Melbourne Sch Bot Melbourne Vic 3010 Australia

The global trade in reptiles for pets has grown rapidly in recent decades. Some species introduced by the pet trade have established and become invasive, for example the Burmese python in Florida. Although there are currently no invasive alien reptiles in South Africa, the last 30 years has seen an exponential increase in the number of introductions of an increasing number of species from an increasing number of countries. We determine and analyse the presence and abundance of species in the South African reptile trade. This serves as a background to efforts to overhaul the management and regulation of this trade, particularly given the need for increasingly objective risk-assessment protocols. We show that introduced species tend to come from specific families including Boidae, Chameleonidae, Elapidae, Pythonidae, Testudinidae and Viperidae. Moreover, within specific families (e.g. chameleons), species of larger body size are more likely to be introduced. As the risk of a species becoming invasive may be increased by higher propagule pressure, it is also important to characterize the volume of trade. Here we analyse data on the abundance of reptiles in South Africa using generalized, additive models and show that venomous and expensive species are traded in low numbers, whereas species that are easy to breed and handle or are large, colourful or patterned are preferred. These human imposed preferences have the potential to cause significant taxonomic changes to the reptile fauna of South Africa, which still largely reflects natural biogeographic and evolutionary processes. Elucidation of import and trade patterns enables us to estimate the probable propagule pressure of any particular species. Because the dispersal pathway defined by trade influences the likelihood of invasion, this information is important for informing policy development and directing management efforts.

关键词： biological invasions body size CITES generalized additive model pet trade propagule pressure risk assessment

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A sign based loss approach to model selection in nonparametric regression

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STATISTICS AND COMPUTING 2010年第4期20卷 485-498页

作者： Nott, David J. Li Jialiang Natl Univ Singapore Dept Stat & Appl Probabil Singapore 117546 Singapore

In parametric regression models the sign of a coefficient often plays an important role in its interpretation. One possible approach to model selection in these situations is to consider a loss function that formulates prediction of the sign of a coefficient as a decision problem. Taking a Bayesian approach, we extend this idea of a sign based loss for selection to more complex situations. In generalized additive models we consider prediction of the sign of the derivative of an additive term at a set of predictors. Being able to predict the sign of the derivative at some point (that is, whether a term is increasing or decreasing) is one approach to selection of terms in additive modelling when interpretation is the main goal. For models with interactions, prediction of the sign of a higher order derivative can be used similarly. There are many advantages to our sign-based strategy for selection: one can work in a full or encompassing model without the need to specify priors on a model space and without needing to specify priors on parameters in submodels. Also, avoiding a search over a large model space can simplify computation. We consider shrinkage prior specifications on smoothing parameters that allow for good predictive performance in models with large numbers of terms without the need for selection, and a frequentist calibration of the parameter in our sign-based loss function when it is desired to control a false selection rate for interpretation.

关键词： Bayesian nonparametric regression Bayesian variable selection False selection rate generalized additive model

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Combining time trends in multiple metrics for identifying persistent changes in population processes or environmental stressors

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JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY 2010年第4期47卷 751-758页

作者： Trenkel, Verena M. Rochet, Marie-Joelle IFREMER F-44311 Nantes 03 France

P>1. Metrics have become a standard way for summarizing environmental monitoring results. Different metrics react differently to natural variations and human-induced stressors. We suggest that combined analysis of time trends in selected biological metrics allows identification of biological processes (e.g. individual growth, mortality or recruitment) that have changed (increased or decreased) persistently. Alternatively, time trends in the abundance of sensitive species could indicate changes in environmental stressors. 2. We calculate the joint likelihood of time trends in three metrics and use it to evaluate the evidence in the data for different combinations of metric time trends. A simulation study provides guidelines for interpreting log-likelihood differences. 3. We illustrate the approach for identifying biological process changes for three North Sea fish stocks (cod Gadus morhua, lesser-spotted dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula and whiting Merlangius merlangius) using metrics derived from international bottom-trawl survey data for the period 1997-2008. Over the period, a decrease in recruitment and several simultaneous process changes were most likely for cod, while a recruitment increase, mortality decrease and several process changes were most likely for lesser-spotted dogfish. No significant persistent process changes were found for whiting. 4. Synthesis and applications. The likelihood approach offers a way of combining monotonic time trends in multiple metrics for identifying persistent changes in exploited populations or environmental stressors, given suitable metric time series and tables for interpreting joint time trends. For data rich fish populations, the proposed method can supplement analytical stock assessments. For many other populations with no fisheries-dependent data, it offers a way to identify population changes, which will be crucial for implementing the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and the European marine strategy framework d

关键词： generalized additive model indicators likelihood principle quadratic programming survey data

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Impact of Air Pollution on Daily Respiratory Hospitalization in Lanzhou, China

Impact of Air Pollution on Daily Respiratory Hospitalization...

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4th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering (iCBBE)

作者： Wang Zhenquan Yan Jun Wang Shigong Hu Zenan Lanzhou Univ Sch Publ Hlth Lanzhou Peoples R China Lanzhou Univ Coll Atmospher Sci Lanzhou Peoples R China Lanzhou Univ Sch Clin Med 1 Lanzhou Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9781424447138

The objective of the research was to explore the impact of air pollution on the health of human respiratory system. The method of the study was to collect data of Air Pollution Index (API), meteorology and the hospitalization of respiratory from 2004 to 2007 in urban of Lanzhou, China. The impact of the air pollution on the health of respiratory was investigated generalized additive Poisson models after controlling long-term time trend, week and meteorology, and stratified by gender, age and respiratory disease type. The result of the study is that every one of IQR (48 units) rising in daily API, there was a 5.50 (95% CI: 4.03%, 6.99%) increase in respiratory hospitalizations, and this influence was delayed effects. Males are more susceptible than females to air pollution and air pollution is more likely to affect under 15-years-old and over 65-years-old. As well as the delayed effects of API rising to pneumonia patients is higher than upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). The conclusion of the study is that air pollution considerably affects urban residents' respiratory morbidity, and gender, age and respiratory disease type had different effects.

关键词： pollution respiratory diseases daily hospitalization generalized additive model

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Policing the homeless An evaluation of efforts to reduce homeless-related crime

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CRIMINOLOGY & PUBLIC POLICY 2010年第4期9卷 813-840页

作者： Berk, Richard MacDonald, John Univ Penn Dept Criminol Philadelphia PA 19104 USA

Police officials across the United States are increasingly relying on place-based approaches for crime prevention. In this article, we examine the Safer Cities Initiative, a widely publicized place-based policing intervention implemented in Los Angeles's "Skid Row" that focused on crime and disorder associated with homeless encampments. Crime reduction was the goal. The police division in which the program was undertaken provides 8 years of time-series data serving as the observations for the treatment condition. Four adjacent police divisions in which the program was not undertaken provide 8 years of time-series data serving as the observations for the comparison condition. The data are analyzed using a generalized additive model. On balance, we find that this place-based intervention is associated with meaningful reductions in violent, property, and nuisance street crimes. There is no evidence of crime displacement. Policy Implications This study provides further evidence that geographically targeted police interventions can lead to significant crime prevention benefits, with no evidence that crime is simply displaced to other areas. Criminologists and the media have given the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) little credit for major reductions in crime that have occurred during the past 5 years following a number of major policy reforms. We suggest that researchers should look more closely at the targeted interventions the LAPD has undertaken for evidence-based examples of effective policing. Importantly, this work suggests that crime associated with homeless encampments can be meaningfully reduced with targeted police actions. However, law enforcement actions do not address the roots of homelessness nor most of its consequences. Getting tough on the homeless should not be confused with policies or programs that respond fundamentally to the social and personal problems that homelessness presents.

关键词： police place-based policing homelessness generalized additive model

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Semiparametric penalized generalized additive models for environmental research and epidemiology

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ENVIRONMETRICS 2009年第6期20卷 699-717页

作者： Schimek, Michael G. Med Univ Graz Inst Med Informat Stat & Documentat A-8036 Graz Austria

For more than a decade generalized additive models (GAMs) have been successfully applied in various environmental studies, for instance to evaluate the impact of air pollution on health. The air pollution measure is usually connected with the health indicator in a parametric fashion whilst the effects of other covariates are modelled through nonparametric smooth functions. This is the motivation for the widely used semiparametric GAMs. The backfitting-GAM methodology, and its Popular implementation in S-Plus, constitutes the standard approach. Here we consider its limitations and offer an alternative penalized likelihood concept. The primary limitations are the lack of tools for Multiple data-driven smoothing parameter choice, slow convergence of the iterative backfitting algorithm when concurvity is present, and unstable biased estimates of the regression coefficients and their standard errors in the semiparametric case, even more pronounced under concurvity. The penalized likelihood methodology when combined with cubic spline smoothers allows for a computationally efficient and complete parametric representation of a GAM, either nonparametric or semi parametric. It helps circumvent most of the mentioned GAM flaws in environmental research and epidemiology (e.g. in studies of human exposure to particulate matter). Finally, we discuss various evidence from simulation experiments in the literature, concerning the proper use of the GAM methodology. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： backfitting generalized additive model multiple smoothing parameter choice particulate matter penalized likelihood semiparametric regression spline smoothing

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A Study on the Effect of Temperature on Non-accidental Deaths

A Study on the Effect of Temperature on Non-accidental Death...

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2010 the 5th International Academic Conference on Environmental and Occupational Medicine

作者： ZHU Yong,CHEN Xiao-dong Jiangsu Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China

[Objective]To explore the effect of temperature on non-accidental deaths.[Methods]When long-term trend, seasonal trend as well as compounding factors of weekly average dew-point temperature,weekly average air pressure and weekly air pollution index were controlled,with the applied time series approach of Poisson generalized additive model(GAM),the effect of weekly average temperature on non-accidental deaths was researched associated with the stratified analysis by gender. [Results]The dangerous temperature range for the whole population was<46.1℉ and>76.9℉,while for the male residents was<48.2℉ and>75.9℉ and for the female residents was<44.3℉ and>80.7℉.[Conclusions]Low temperature and high temperature are both the risk factors to non-accidental deaths,however the dangerous temperature range of non-accidental deaths for the female residents are narrower than that of the male residents.

关键词： temperature mortality time series generalized additive model

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Stochastic Approximation Boosting for Incomplete Data Problems

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BIOMETRICS 2009年第4期65卷 1156-1163页

作者： Sexton, Joseph Laake, Petter Univ Oslo Inst Basic Med Sci Dept Biostat N-0317 Oslo Norway

P>Boosting is a powerful approach to fitting regression models. This article describes a boosting algorithm for likelihood-based estimation with incomplete data. The algorithm combines boosting with a variant of stochastic approximation that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to deal with the missing data. Applications to fitting generalized linear and additive models with missing covariates are given. The method is applied to the Pima Indians Diabetes Data where over half of the cases contain missing values.

关键词： Boosting generalized additive model generalized linear model Incomplete data Markov chain Monte Carlo Stochastic approximation

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Understanding and addressing seabird bycatch in Alaska demersal longline fisheries

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BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION 2009年第11期142卷 2642-2656页

作者： Dietrich, Kimberly S. Parrish, Julia K. Melvin, Edward F. Univ Washington Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci Washington Sea Grant Seattle WA 98105 USA Univ Washington Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci Seattle WA 98195 USA

The incidental catch of seabirds in longline fisheries is a global conservation concern. In Alaska, annual seabird bycatch in demersal longline fisheries ranged between 10,300 and 26,300 birds (1995-2001). We explore the relationship between four categories of potential forcing factors (temporal, spatial, environmental, and fisheries-related) and seabird bycatch rates in Alaska demersal longline fisheries to provide practical management alternatives that could significantly reduce seabird bycatch. Separate generalized linear or additive models (GLM or GAM, respectively) were created for several combinations of seabird group, fishery and large geographic region. Across nearly all models, "vessel" was the most influential factor explaining seabird bycatch rate variation. Rather than a single variable, vessel is an amalgam of unmeasured forcing factors many of which could not be separated out in this data set (e.g., longline sink rate, vessel setting speed, line deployment location relative to propeller direction). A separate vessel-specific analysis also supported the multivariate results that performance of an individual vessel is overwhelmingly important (i.e., some vessels have consistently high or low bycatch rates from year to year). Therefore, vessel-specific performance is a critical management option. The effects of temporal (annual, month, and breeding phenology) and spatial variables were also moderately influential on seabird bycatch rates. Our results suggest that seasonal adjustments in the Alaska longline fishery have potential for overall bycatch reductions, but vague seabird management objectives could have huge unintended and undesirable consequences when implementing temporal adjustments. Other variables (environmental and other fishing-related factors) were frequently significant but contributed a small amount to overall explained deviance. Based on this study, we conclude that a vessel-specific management approach would be the most effective and ef

关键词： Incidental catch Seabird-fishery interaction generalized linear model generalized additive model

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