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A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2009年第3期44卷 590-607页

作者： van Wilgen, Nicola J. Roura-Pascual, Nuria Richardson, David M. Univ Stellenbosch Dept Bot & Zool CIB ZA-7602 Stellenbosch Western Cape South Africa

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

关键词： Bioclimatic envelope modeling Biological invasions California Florida generalized additive model GBIF Invasive alien species Herpetofauna NatureServe Species distribution modeling WildFinder

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Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

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RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 2009年第7期94卷 1194-1204页

作者： Iooss, Bertrand Ribatet, Mathieu CEA DEN DER SESI LCFR F-13108 St Paul Les Durance France Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne Chair Stat STAT IMA FSB EPFL Stn 8 CH-1015 Lausanne Switzerland

Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The "mean model" allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the "dispersion model" allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Sobol's indices Joint modeling generalized additive model Metamodel Stochastic process Uncertainty

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Standardizing CPUE of Ommastrephes bartramii for Chinese squid-jigging fishery in Northwest Pacific Ocean

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2009年第4期27卷 729-739页

作者：田思泉陈新军陈勇许柳雄戴小杰 College of Marine Sciences Shanghai Ocean University Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Shanghai Education Commission for Oceanic Fisheries Resources Exploitation School of Marine Sciences University of Maine

generalized linear models （GLM） and generalized additive models （GAM） were used to standardize catch per unit fishing effort （CPUE） of Ommastrephes bartramii for Chinese squid-jigging fishery in Northwest Pacific Ocean. Three groups of variables were considered in the standardization： spatial variables （longitude and latitude）, temporal variables （year and month） and environmental variables, including sea surface temperature （SST）, sea surface salinity （SSS） and sea level height （SLH）. CPUE was treated as the dependent variable and its error distribution was assumed to be log-normal in each model. The model selections of GLM and GAM were based on the finite sample-corrected Akaike information criterion （AICC） and pseudo-coefficient （Pcf） combined P-value, respectively. Both GAM and GLM analysis showed that the month was the most important variable affecting CPUE and could explain 21.3% of variability in CPUE while other variables only explained 8.66%. The interaction of spatial and temporal variables weakly influenced the CPUE. Moreover, spatio-temporal factors may be more important in influencing the CPUE of this squid than environmental variables. The standardized and nominal CPUEs were similar and had the same trends in spatio-temporal distribution, but the standardized CPUE values tended to be smaller than the nominal CPUE. The CPUE tended to have much higher monthly variation than annual variations and their values increased with month. The CPUE became higher with increasing latitude-high CPUE usually occurred in 145°E-148°E and 149°E-162°E. The CPUE was higher when SST was 14-21℃ and the SLH from -22 cm to -18 cm. In this study, GAM tended to be more suitable than GLM in analysis of CPUE.

关键词： Ommastrephes bartramii CPUE standardization generalized additive model generalizedlinear model Northwestern Pacific Ocean Chinese squid-jigging fishery

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Logging Concessions Can Extend the Conservation Estate for Central African Tropical Forests

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CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2009年第5期23卷 1281-1293页

作者： Clark, C. J. Poulsen, J. R. Malonga, R. Elkan, P. W., Jr. Univ Florida Dept Zool POB 11852 Gainesville FL 32611 USA Wildlife Conservat Soc Brazzaville Rep Congo

The management of tropical forest in timber concessions has been proposed as a solution to prevent further biodiversity loss. The effectiveness of this strategy will likely depend on species-specific, population-level responses to logging. We conducted a survey (749 line transects over 3450 km) in logging concessions (1.2 million ha) in the northern Republic of Congo to examine the impact of logging on large mammal populations, including endangered species such as the elephant (Loxodonta africana), gorilla (Gorilla gorilla), chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), and bongo (Tragelaphus eurycerus). When we estimated species abundance without consideration of transect characteristics, species abundances in logged and unlogged forests were not different for most species. When we modeled the data with a hurdle model approach, however, analyzing species presence and conditional abundance separately with generalized additive models and then combining them to calculate the mean species abundance, species abundance varied strongly depending on transect characteristics. The mean species abundance was often related to the distance to unlogged forest, which suggests that intact forest serves as source habitat for several species. The mean species abundance responded nonlinearly to logging history, changing over 30 years as the forest recovered from logging. Finally the distance away from roads, natural forest clearings, and villages also determined the abundance of mammals. Our results suggest that logged forest can extend the conservation estate for many of Central Africa's most threatened species if managed appropriately. In addition to limiting hunting, logging concessions must be large, contain patches of unlogged forest, and include forest with different logging histories.

关键词： chimpanzee elephant generalized additive model gorilla logging concession Republic of Congo tropical forest

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Analysis of logbook accuracy for blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) in the Hawaii-based longline fishery with a generalized additive model and commercial sales data

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FISHERIES RESEARCH 2005年第1-3期75卷 175-192页

作者： Walsh, WA Ito, RY Kawamoto, KE McCracken, M Univ Hawaii Joint Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Honolulu HI 96822 USA NOAA Fisheries Pacific Isl Fisheries Sci Ctr Honolulu HI 96822 USA

Blue marlin, Makaira nigricans, catch (number per set) in the Hawaii-based longline fishery from March 1994 through June 2002 was analyzed by integrated use of observer reports, commercial logbooks, and auction sales records. The objective was to provide a corrected catch history for this species in this fishery during this period. The study was conducted because official statistics compiled from the logbooks are known to be biased by billfish (Istiophoridae) misidentifications. The initial step entailed fitting a generalized additive model (GAM) of blue marlin catch to environmental and operational data gathered by fishery observers during 8397 longline sets deployed by commercial vessels. The GAM included nine significant predictors and explained 41.1% of the deviance of observed blue marlin catches. The GAM coefficients were then applied to the corresponding predictors in the logbook reports from unobserved sets to estimate catches in evaluations of the accuracy of data from unobserved sets (N=87 277 longline sets on 8437 trips;95.4% of unobserved effort). This was done by regressing the logbook catch data on the predictions, using the residuals to identify trips with systematic misidentifications, and then checking their logbooks against sales records from the public fish auction in Honolulu. The large majority of the misidentifications consisted of striped marlin, Tetrapturus audax, reported as blue marlin, with lesser numbers of shortbill spearfish, T angustirostris, logged as blue marlin, and blue marlin logged as either striped marlin or black marlin, M. indica. An estimate obtained by use of the GAM and observer data indicated that the nominal catch of blue marlin was inflated by 29.4%. The 95% prediction limits about the GAM-generated estimate (34201-41507 blue marlin) did not include the catch total from the logbooks (48 911 blue marlin). The corrections also refined understanding of the distribution of blue marlin by reducing the impression that large nu

关键词： blue marlin generalized additive model corrected catch history fishery observer data fish auction data logbook accuracy

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JOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY 2009年第3期277卷 214-220页

作者： Scroggie, M. P. Clemann, N. Arthur Rylah Inst Environm Res Dept Sustainabil & Environm Heidelberg Vic 3084 Australia

Caudal autotomy (tail loss) during capture and handling is widely reported among several families of lizards. Autotomy causes elevated stress levels in lizards, and imposes a significant fitness cost on autotomized individuals. Despite these detrimental impacts, conservation and ethical issues associated with handling-related tail loss have received little attention. We assessed the incidence and correlates of tail autotomy during capture and handling in an endangered skink, the alpine she-oak skink Cyclodomorphus praealtus. A significant proportion (9.3%) of lizards autotomized their tails during capture and handling. Medium-sized lizards were more likely to lose their tails during handling, and this effect was exacerbated at intermediate body temperatures. Probability of autotomy had a complex relationship with cumulative observer experience, independent of other risk factors. Based on the modelled relationship of autotomy with body temperature, we propose that alpine she-oak skinks be cooled immediately after capture to reduce rates of autotomy during subsequent handling.

关键词： animal welfare caudal autotomy Cyclodomorphus praealtus generalized additive model skink

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Effect of damming on distribution of rainbow trout in Hokkaido, Japan

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ENVIRONMENTAL BIOLOGY OF FISHES 2009年第2期84卷 175-181页

作者： Han, Mideok Fukushima, Takehiko Fukushima, Michio Univ Tsukuba Grad Sch Life & Environm Sci Lab Adv Res A501 Tsukuba Ibaraki 3058572 Japan Natl Inst Environm Studies Tsukuba Ibaraki 3058506 Japan

Rainbow trout introduced into Hokkaido in 1920 have become widely distributed due to extensive release into many reservoirs and lakes for sport-fishing;their presence often results in reductions of native fish populations. We analyzed and predicted the relationship between the probability of occurrence of rainbow trout and the proximity of dams (or attributed reservoirs), using a database of the presence or absence of rainbow trout collected during 1960-2004 in Hokkaido to clarify the spread patterns of exotic species (e.g., rainbow trout) due to large-scale damming over a long period. Rainbow trout were abundant in streams within approximately 10 km of dams in recent years, regardless of whether the stream was up- or down-stream from the dam and after accounting for the effects of other environmental variables (e.g. elevation, population density, and survey year). A delayed increase in trout occurrence below dams as compared with above dams suggests that the occurrence below dams may be largely due to escapement of stocked populations and a continuously increasing abundance since 1970. The management of dams and reservoirs is necessary to prevent further spread of rainbow trout because they can threaten habitats of native Japanese salmonids through various mechanisms.

关键词： Damming Exotic fish generalized additive model Hokkaido Rainbow trout

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modelling the non-linear effects on loan-level prepayment rates: evidence from adjustable-rate equity loans

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JOURNAL OF INTERDISCIPLINARY MATHEMATICS 2009年第3期12卷 345-366页

作者： Yang, Hsien-Chueh Peter Liu, Chun-Te Natl Kaohsiung First Univ Sci & Technol 2 Jhuoyue Rd Kaohsiung 811 Taiwan

This paper presents a generalized additive model to describe the non-linear effects of both the factors, the curtailment and the interest, on prepayment through retrieving the payment history of each adjustable-rate home equity loan (ARHEL). Unlike previous studies, we define the curtaihnent factor to be the accumulated amount of curtailment since loan origination and the interest factor to be the ratio of the loaned rate to the one-year deposit rate which precedes the former by three months. The sample consists of 1,246 ARHELs which were followed up between January 1999 to December 2000. Several research questions were addressed in this study, and the principal findings suggested that (1) the conditional probabilities of full prepayment would increase rapidly when the age of the loan reaches 10 years;(2) the full prepayment probabilities would decrease with the curtailment when the accumulated rate of curtaihnent stays below 60% of the scheduled principal and would increase rapidly when it reaches 85% of the scheduled principal;(3) the prepayment probability would increase with the amount of the loan and achieves its highest at about the amount of NT$ four millions;(4) the prepayment probability would increase with the ratio of contract rate to the lag three-month one-year deposit rate, and achieves the highest at the ratio of 4 and declines after that.

关键词： Prepayment adjustable-rate home equity loans curtailment generalized additive model B-splines

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Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

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PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 2009年第sup2期106卷 19723-19728页

作者： Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Yoccoz, Nigel G. Edwards, Thomas C., Jr. Meier, Eliane S. Thuiller, Wilfried Guisan, Antoine Schmatz, Dirk R. Pearman, Peter B. Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland Univ Tromso Fac Sci Dept Biol N-9037 Tromso Norway Utah State Univ Utah Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit US Geol Survey Logan UT 84322 USA Univ Grenoble 1 CNRS UMR 5553 Lab Ecol Alpine F-38041 Grenoble 9 France Univ Lausanne Dept Ecol & Evolut CH-1015 Lausanne Switzerland

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D-2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

关键词： climate change ecological niche generalized additive model geographic range species distribution models

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Smoothing splines for trend estimation and prediction in time series

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ENVIRONMETRICS 2009年第3期20卷 249-259页

作者： Morton, Richard Kang, Emily L. Henderson, Brent L. CSIRO Math & Informat Sci Canberra ACT Australia Ohio State Univ Dept Stat Columbus OH 43210 USA

We consider the use of generalized additive models with correlated errors for analysing trends in time series. The trend is represented as a smoothing spline so that it can be extrapolated. A method is proposed for choosing the smoothing parameter. It is based oil the ability to predict a short term into the future. The choice not only addresses the purpose in hand, but also performs very well, and avoids the tendency to Under-smooth or to interpolate the data that can occur with other data-driven methods used to choose the smoothing parameter. The method is applied to data from a chemical process and to stream salinity measurements. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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