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Assessing spatial heterogeneous response of ecosystem service relationships to land use intensification

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 2023年第1期154卷

作者： Qiu, Mingli Liu, Dianfeng Wuhan Univ Sch Resources & Environm Sci Wuhan 430079 Peoples R China Minist Nat Resources Key Lab Digital Cartog & Land Informat Applicat En Wuhan 430079 Peoples R China Wuhan Univ Hubei Luojia Lab Wuhan 430079 Peoples R China 129 Luoyu Rd Wuhan 430079 Peoples R China

Sustainable land use should balance the competing needs for development and protection. Land-use intensification facilitates material benefits from ecosystem, while potentially undermining the capacity of regulate the life-support environment and thus altering trade-offs between ecosystem services (ES). However, there remains a limited understanding of how land-use intensity (LUI) affects the spatial heterogeneity of ES relationships. To address this issue, we first propose an ES synergies (ESS) index, to clarify site-specific ES relationships, based on a combination of the production possibility frontier (PPF) and the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). Then, we assess the nonlinear impacts of LUI on ESS, using the generalized additive models (GAMs). A case study was conducted in the Three Gorges region of central China, due to the dilemma between intensive development for poverty alleviation and water-soil retention for ecological protection. The results showed that an increase in LUI caused different rates of decline in ESS. Land-use intensification increased resource inputs and anthropogenic disturbances within entire land parcels, thus disrupting the synergistic relationships between several ES. Specifically, the synergies between water retention and carbon sequestration or biodiversity conservation decreased by more than three times as much as those between water retention and food production. Excessive LUI will reduce the provision of carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation compared to that of food production for the same level of water retention. However, moderate LUI can promote the synergistic provision of multiple services. For example, an LUI threshold of 2.5, which maximized the synergies of water-soil retention with other ES, showed the optimal balance of diverse ecological benefits at the highest level of intensity. Our study is expected to extend existing knowledge on the spatial heterogeneity of ES

关键词： Land use intensification Ecosystem service relationships Production possibility frontier generalized additive models

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Prediction of daily PM2.5 and ozone based on high-density weather stations in China: Nonlinear effects of meteorology, human and ecosystem health risks

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ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 2023年第1期293卷

作者： Wang, Lili Liu, Boya Li, Rong Chen, Xingfeng Liu, Lili Tang, Xiao Liu, Jingda Liao, Zhiheng Xin, Jinyuan Wang, Yuesi Hu, Bo Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atmo Beijing 100029 Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci Coll Earth Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China Tianjin Inst Meteorol Sci Tianjin 300074 Peoples R China Hubei Univ Fac Resources & Environm Sci Wuhan 430062 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Aerosp Informat Res Inst Beijing 100094 Peoples R China China Meteorol Adm Inst Urban Meteorol Beijing 100089 Peoples R China Wuxi Cas Photon Co Wuxi 214135 Peoples R China Zhejiang Ecol & Environm Monitoring Ctr Zhejiang Key Lab Ecol & Environm Big Data 2022P100 Hangzhou 310012 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atmo Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

In recent decade, despite the implementation of strict emission reductions, PM2.5 and surface ozone (O-3) in China are still at high pollution level. In this study, based on observations at air quality stations (similar to 1500 mainly in urban region), daily PM2.5 and MDA8 (the daily maximum 8 h average) O-3 concentrations in high-density and uniform meteorological sites (similar to 2000) over China during 2017-2019 were retrieved using generalized additive models (GAMs) for different regions on a seasonal scale, in order to establish 0.1 degrees gridded datasets and inves-tigate their spatiotemporal characteristics, nonlinear effects of meteorology, and ambient air pollution-attributable health risks on a regional scale. This model can provide high accuracy in the estimation of daily PM2.5 (O-3) in 2018 with overall cross-validation R-2 and RMSE of 0.81 (0.80) and 12.73 (17.63) & mu;g/m3 and predictive capability in 2017 and 2019 with R2 of 0.67 (0.70) for PM2.5 (O-3). Temperature, relative humidity and visibility are three main meteorological factors driving PM2.5 (O-3) response. PM2.5 generally exhibits an expo-nential decrease with increasing visibility and an increase with increasing relative humidity, while is suppressed at the thresholds of 60% and 70%. For O-3, in northern China, positive response of temperature is more important and O-3 suppression exists at 36 degrees C similar to 41.5 degrees C, whereas negative response of relative humidity is dominating in southern China. Overall, annual averaged PM2.5 (O-3) values across China reduced (increased) by 18.7% (11.2%) between 2017 and 2019, with the highest concentrations and variation in North China. These variations contributed to a 14.9% reduction in PM2.5 attributed premature deaths, but a 10.4% increase in O-3 exposure related deaths. Generally, central-eastern China still exists greater health risk with per capita premature mortality ranging from 0.80%o to 1.19%o for PM2.5 and 1.91%o to 2.60%o for O-3

关键词： Surface ozone PM2.5 generalized additive models Human health exposure O-3 vegetable damage China

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Environmental Drivers of Gross Primary Production and Evapotranspiration at a Robinia pseudoacacia L. Restoration Plantation

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FORESTS 2023年第5期14卷 916页

作者： Markos, Nikos Radoglou, Kalliopi Fotelli, Mariangela N. Democritus Univ Thrace Dept Forestry & Management Environm & Nat Resource Orestiada 68200 Greece Hellenic Agr Org Dimitra Forest Res Inst Thessaloniki 57006 Greece

Black locust is the second-most-often planted tree worldwide, particularly for restoration plantations, but drought dieback and growth declines are being reported. Currently, we lack information on these ecosystems' water and carbon fluxes, in relation to climatic variability. Here, we employed eddy covariance to determine the gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) of a black locust post-mining restoration plantation in NW Greece over c. 2.5 years. Additionally, we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to study the effects of key environmental drivers (vapour pressure deficit-VPD, soil water content-SWC, solar radiation-Rg and enhanced vegetation index-EVI) on GPP and ET during summer months. Both diurnally and seasonally, GPP increased with increasing Rg, SWC and EVI, but was saturated after certain thresholds (Rg: 400 W m(-2), SWC: 25%, EVI: 0.65). In contrast, GPP declined strongly with increasing VPD. Overall, GPP was maintained at a high level, at the cost of ET, which constantly raised with increasing solar radiation and SWC and was not responsive to enhanced VPD, indicating a non-conservative water use. At present, these black locust plantations exhibit favourable productivity and no drought stress, but increasing VPD in the context of climate change may, ultimately, negatively impact these ecosystems.

关键词： black locust eddy covariance evapotranspiration gross primary production vapour pressure deficit solar radiation soil water content EVI generalized additive models

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Sediment core records and impact factors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Chinese lakes

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ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023年第1期235卷 116690页

作者： Xia, Yubao Zhang, Yanxia Ji, Qingsong Cheng, Xinying Wang, Xinkai Sabel, Clive E. He, Huan Nanjing Normal Univ Sch Environm Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China Aarhus Univ Aarhus Inst Adv Studies Aarhus 8000 Denmark Aarhus Univ Big Data Ctr Environm & Hlth BERTHA Dept Publ Hlth DK-8000 Aarhus Denmark Chinese Acad Sci Inst Soil Sci Key Lab Soil Environm & Pollut Remediat Nanjing 210008 Peoples R China Aarhus Univ Dept Publ Hlth DK-8000 Aarhus Denmark Wuyi Univ Coll Ecol & Resource Engn Fujian Prov Key Lab Ecoind Green Technol Wuyishan 354300 Peoples R China

Lake sediment is a natural sink for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAH sedimentation characteristics and their impact factors of Chinese lakes have mainly been qualitative assessed. However, quantitative impacts of PAH sedimentation from different factors have not been well analyzed. To fill this gap, we screened PAH sedimentation records from the literature, for 51 lakes in China and other regions of the world, to identify historical concentration variation and the impact factors of PAHs in different regions, in lake sediment. The results show that PAH concentrations in the sediment core in the selected Chinese lakes (478 & PLUSMN;812 ng/g dry weight (dw)) were significantly lower than those in North America (5518 & PLUSMN;6572 ng/g dw) and Europe (3817 & PLUSMN;4033 ng/g dw). From 1900 to 2015, most of the lakes in China showed an increasing trend of PAH sedimentation concentrations, with the lakes in Southeastern China showed a decreasing trend of PAH concentration in the period of 2001-2015, which was later than the peak times shown in Western countries (1941-1970). The 2-3ring PAHs were the main components in the sediment core of Chinese lakes, but the proportion to the total PAHs decreased from 72% in 1900-1940 to 55% in 2001-2015. generalized additive modeling (GAM) was adopted to simulate the associations between PAH sedimentation records and the impact factors. There are large regional variations of economic and industrial development in China. The impact factors of PAH accumulation in the lake sediments differ in different regions. However, population and the consumption of coal, pesticides, and fertilizer were identified to be the most important impact factors influencing PAH sedimentation. The Chinese government needs to strengthen control measures on pollutant discharge to reduce the anthropogenic impact of PAH sedimentation in lakes.

关键词： Sediment cores PAHs Lakes Key factors generalized additive models

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Predicting vulnerability through hybrid modeling combining GAM and XGBoost - A case of affected population vulnerability to tropical cyclone in Hainan Province

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 2024年 111卷

作者： Meng, Chenna Xu, Wei Qiao, Yu Qin, Lianjie Su, Peng Liao, Xinli Beijing Normal Univ Minist Educ Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Minist Emergency Management Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Minist Educ Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Beijing Normal Univ Fac Geog Sci Beijing Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ Sch Safety Sci Beijing 100084 Peoples R China

Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive natural disasters, frequently occurring in the southeastern coastal areas of China, causing huge losses. Accurate characterization and prediction of negative impacts are necessary to minimize impact on coastal cities. However, a complex interaction between hazard intensity and other drivers is involved in the impact of some extreme tropical cyclones, which are often worthy of attention. In this study, a quantitative vulnerability assessment model of tropical cyclones considering the mutual relation between hazard intensity and environmental drivers was developed using the generalized additive model (GAM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) for the case of Hainan Province, China. In the testing dataset, the root mean squared error of the optimal model was 0.1393, and the mean absolute percentage error of the optimal model was 35.2 % for spikes in the affected population rate. The spikes in the affected population rate were predicted well by the hybrid model jointly considering nonlinear multivariable regression models and undersampling machine learning methods.

关键词： Multiple hazards Tropical cyclones generalized additive models Random forest Extreme gradient boosting China

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Variance Propagation for Density Surface models

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JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS 2021年第2期26卷 306-323页

作者： Bravington, Mark V. Miller, David L. Hedley, Sharon L. Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org Marine Lab Hobart Tas Australia Univ St Andrews Ctr Res Ecol & Environm Modelling St Andrews Fife Scotland Univ St Andrews Sch Math & Stat St Andrews Fife Scotland

Spatially explicit estimates of population density, together with appropriate estimates of uncertainty, are required in many management contexts. Density surface models (DSMs) are a two-stage approach for estimating spatially varying density from distance sampling data. First, detection probabilities-perhaps depending on covariates-are estimated based on details of individual encounters;next, local densities are estimated using a GAM, by fitting local encounter rates to location and/or spatially varying covariates while allowing for the estimated detectabilities. One criticism of DSMs has been that uncertainty from the two stages is not usually propagated correctly into the final variance estimates. We show how to reformulate a DSM so that the uncertainty in detection probability from the distance sampling stage (regardless of its complexity) is captured as an extra random effect in the GAM stage. In effect, we refit an approximation to the detection function model at the same time as fitting the spatial model. This allows straightforward computation of the overall variance via exactly the same software already needed to fit the GAM. A further extension allows for spatial variation in group size, which can be an important covariate for detectability as well as directly affecting abundance. We illustrate these models using point transect survey data of Island Scrub-Jays on Santa Cruz Island, CA, and harbour porpoise from the SCANS-II line transect survey of European waters. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

关键词： Abundance estimation Distance sampling generalized additive models Line transect sampling Point transect sampling Spatial modelling

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Climate sensitivity of understory trees differs from overstory trees in temperate mesic forests

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ECOLOGY 2021年第3期102卷 e03264-e03264页

作者： Rollinson, Christine R. Alexander, M. Ross Dye, Alex W. Moore, David J. P. Pederson, Neil Trouet, Valerie Ctr Tree Sci Morton Arboretum Lisle IL 60532 USA Midwest Dendro LLC Naperville IL 60565 USA Oregon State Univ Dept Forest Ecosyst & Soc Corvallis OR 97333 USA Univ Arizona Sch Nat Resources & Environm Tucson AZ 85721 USA Harvard Univ Petersham MA 01366 USA Univ Arizona Lab Tree Ring Res Tucson AZ 85721 USA

The response of understory trees to climate variability is key to understanding current and future forest dynamics. However, analyses of climatic effects on tree growth have primarily focused on the upper canopy, leaving understory dynamics unresolved. We analyzed differences in climate sensitivity based on canopy position of four common tree species (Acer rubrum, Fagus grandifolia, Quercus rubra, and Tsuga canadensis) using growth information from 1,084 trees across eight sites in the northeastern United States. Effects of canopy position on climate response varied, but were significant and often nonlinear, for all four species. Compared to overstory trees, understory trees showed stronger reductions in growth at high temperatures and varied shifts in precipitation response. This contradicts the prevailing assumption that climate responses, particularly to temperature, of understory trees are buffered by the overstory. Forest growth trajectories are uncertain in compositionally and structurally complex forests, and future demography and regeneration dynamics may be misinferred if not all canopy levels are represented in future forecasts.

关键词： canopy position climate-growth relationship forest structure generalized additive models tree rings

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A Person- and Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model to Capture Interactive Infant-Mother Head Movement Dynamics

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MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH 2021年第5期56卷 739-767页

作者： Chen, Meng Chow, Sy-Miin Hammal, Zakia Messinger, Daniel S. Cohn, Jeffrey F. Penn State Univ Human Dev & Family Studies 420 Biobehav Hlth BldgUniv Pk State Coll PA 16802 USA Carnegie Mellon Univ Inst Robot Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA Univ Miami Dept Psychol Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Pediat Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Mus Engn Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Elect Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Comp Engn Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Pittsburgh Dept Psychol Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA Univ Pittsburgh Dept Psychiat Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA Univ Pittsburgh Dept Intelligent Syst Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA

Head movement is an important but often overlooked component of emotion and social interaction. Examination of regularity and differences in head movements of infant-mother dyads over time and across dyads can shed light on whether and how mothers and infants alter their dynamics over the course of an interaction to adapt to each others. One way to study these emergent differences in dynamics is to allow parameters that govern the patterns of interactions to change over time, and according to person- and dyad-specific characteristics. Using two estimation approaches to implement variations of a vector-autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients, we investigated the dynamics of automatically-tracked head movements in mothers and infants during the Face-Face/Still-Face Procedure (SFP) with 24 infant-mother dyads. The first approach requires specification of a confirmatory model for the time-varying parameters as part of a state-space model, whereas the second approach handles the time-varying parameters in a semi-parametric ("mostly" model-free) fashion within a generalized additive modeling framework. Results suggested that infant-mother head movement dynamics varied in time both within and across episodes of the SFP, and varied based on infants' subsequently-assessed attachment security. Code for implementing the time-varying vector-autoregressive model using two R packages,dynrandmgcv, is provided.

关键词： Time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models state-space models generalized additive models parent-infant interactions head movements still-face paradigm

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A general semiparametric Bayesian discrete-time recurrent events model

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BIOSTATISTICS 2021年第2期22卷 266-282页

作者： King, Adam J. Weiss, Robert E. Calif State Polytech Univ Pomona Dept Math & Stat 3801 West Temple Ave Pomona CA 91768 USA Univ Calif Los Angeles Fielding Sch Publ Hlth Dept Biostat 650 Charles E Young Dr South Los Angeles CA 90095 USA

Event time variables are often recorded in a discrete fashion, especially in the case of patient-reported outcomes. This work is motivated by a study of illicit drug users, in which time to drug use cessation has been recorded as a number of whole months. Existing approaches for handling such discrete data include treating the survival times as continuous (with adjustments for inevitable tied outcomes), or using discrete models that omit important features like random effects. We provide a general Bayesian discrete-time proportional hazards model, incorporating a number of features popular in continuous-time models such as competing risks and frailties. Our model also provides flexible baseline hazards for time effects, as well as generalized additive models style semiparametric incorporation of other time-varying covariates. Our specific modeling choices enable efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo inference algorithms, which we provide to the user in the form of a freely available R package called brea. We demonstrate that our model performs better on our motivating substance abuse application than existing approaches. We also present a reproducible application of the brea software to a freely available data set from a clinical trial of anesthesia administration methods.

关键词： Competing risks Cox model Discrete time generalized additive models Recurrent events Semiparametric models Software Substance abuse

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Long-term automatic trap data reveal factors affecting diurnal flight patterns of the Mediterranean Fruit fly

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JOURNAL OF APPLIED ENTOMOLOGY 2021年第5期145卷 427-439页

作者： Goldshtein, Eitan Gazit, Yoav Hetzroni, Amots Timar, Doron Rosenfeld, Lavi Grinshpon, Yossef Cohen, Yafit Agr Res Org ARO Inst Agr Engn Volcani Ctr POB 15159 IL-7505101 Rishon Leziyyon Israel Israel Cohen Inst Biol Control Plants Prod & Mkt Board Yehud Monosson Israel

Mediterranean Fruit Fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), is considered to be one of the most destructive fruit insect pests throughout the world. In recent years, the temporal dynamics of the medfly have been extensively studied by season, and, to a lesser extent, on a daily basis. We exploited, for the first time, a sequential automatic medfly male trapping system, in combination with climate data, to characterize diel flight patterns of male medflies trapped. The process was carried out in four commercial citrus fields over three growing seasons. Results showed that throughout the year, medfly flight activity began 4-6 hr after sunrise and peaked up to 2 to 3 hr before sunset. generalized additive models (GAM) of the 934 days sampled revealed that in the fall, the diurnal flight activity was unimodal, that is, it began increasing at noon, peaking in the afternoon. By contrast, in the spring and summer, the diurnal flight activity exhibited a bimodal pattern, decreasing at midday. GAMs also revealed that hour after sunrise and temperature influenced medfly captures, with the former the more dominant factor. Thus, photophase significantly impacted the medfly's diurnal flight activity in each season. This study demonstrated that automatic traps that timestamp each capture are a primary research tool in insect flight activity studies that contributes to understanding diurnal insect activity within the growing season.

关键词： big data Ceratitis capitata data science generalized additive models insect behaviour pest control

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