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A Person- and Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model to Capture Interactive Infant-Mother Head Movement Dynamics

MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH 2021年第5期56卷 739-767页

作者： Chen, Meng Chow, Sy-Miin Hammal, Zakia Messinger, Daniel S. Cohn, Jeffrey F. Penn State Univ Human Dev & Family Studies 420 Biobehav Hlth BldgUniv Pk State Coll PA 16802 USA Carnegie Mellon Univ Inst Robot Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA Univ Miami Dept Psychol Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Pediat Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Mus Engn Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Elect Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Miami Dept Comp Engn Coral Gables FL 33124 USA Univ Pittsburgh Dept Psychol Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA Univ Pittsburgh Dept Psychiat Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA Univ Pittsburgh Dept Intelligent Syst Pittsburgh PA 15260 USA

Head movement is an important but often overlooked component of emotion and social interaction. Examination of regularity and differences in head movements of infant-mother dyads over time and across dyads can shed light on whether and how mothers and infants alter their dynamics over the course of an interaction to adapt to each others. One way to study these emergent differences in dynamics is to allow parameters that govern the patterns of interactions to change over time, and according to person- and dyad-specific characteristics. Using two estimation approaches to implement variations of a vector-autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients, we investigated the dynamics of automatically-tracked head movements in mothers and infants during the Face-Face/Still-Face Procedure (SFP) with 24 infant-mother dyads. The first approach requires specification of a confirmatory model for the time-varying parameters as part of a state-space model, whereas the second approach handles the time-varying parameters in a semi-parametric ("mostly" model-free) fashion within a generalized additive modeling framework. Results suggested that infant-mother head movement dynamics varied in time both within and across episodes of the SFP, and varied based on infants' subsequently-assessed attachment security. Code for implementing the time-varying vector-autoregressive model using two R packages,dynrandmgcv, is provided.

关键词： Time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models state-space models generalized additive models parent-infant interactions head movements still-face paradigm

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Long-term automatic trap data reveal factors affecting diurnal flight patterns of the Mediterranean Fruit fly

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JOURNAL OF APPLIED ENTOMOLOGY 2021年第5期145卷 427-439页

作者： Goldshtein, Eitan Gazit, Yoav Hetzroni, Amots Timar, Doron Rosenfeld, Lavi Grinshpon, Yossef Cohen, Yafit Agr Res Org ARO Inst Agr Engn Volcani Ctr POB 15159 IL-7505101 Rishon Leziyyon Israel Israel Cohen Inst Biol Control Plants Prod & Mkt Board Yehud Monosson Israel

Mediterranean Fruit Fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), is considered to be one of the most destructive fruit insect pests throughout the world. In recent years, the temporal dynamics of the medfly have been extensively studied by season, and, to a lesser extent, on a daily basis. We exploited, for the first time, a sequential automatic medfly male trapping system, in combination with climate data, to characterize diel flight patterns of male medflies trapped. The process was carried out in four commercial citrus fields over three growing seasons. Results showed that throughout the year, medfly flight activity began 4-6 hr after sunrise and peaked up to 2 to 3 hr before sunset. generalized additive models (GAM) of the 934 days sampled revealed that in the fall, the diurnal flight activity was unimodal, that is, it began increasing at noon, peaking in the afternoon. By contrast, in the spring and summer, the diurnal flight activity exhibited a bimodal pattern, decreasing at midday. GAMs also revealed that hour after sunrise and temperature influenced medfly captures, with the former the more dominant factor. Thus, photophase significantly impacted the medfly's diurnal flight activity in each season. This study demonstrated that automatic traps that timestamp each capture are a primary research tool in insect flight activity studies that contributes to understanding diurnal insect activity within the growing season.

关键词： big data Ceratitis capitata data science generalized additive models insect behaviour pest control

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A general semiparametric Bayesian discrete-time recurrent events model

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BIOSTATISTICS 2021年第2期22卷 266-282页

作者： King, Adam J. Weiss, Robert E. Calif State Polytech Univ Pomona Dept Math & Stat 3801 West Temple Ave Pomona CA 91768 USA Univ Calif Los Angeles Fielding Sch Publ Hlth Dept Biostat 650 Charles E Young Dr South Los Angeles CA 90095 USA

Event time variables are often recorded in a discrete fashion, especially in the case of patient-reported outcomes. This work is motivated by a study of illicit drug users, in which time to drug use cessation has been recorded as a number of whole months. Existing approaches for handling such discrete data include treating the survival times as continuous (with adjustments for inevitable tied outcomes), or using discrete models that omit important features like random effects. We provide a general Bayesian discrete-time proportional hazards model, incorporating a number of features popular in continuous-time models such as competing risks and frailties. Our model also provides flexible baseline hazards for time effects, as well as generalized additive models style semiparametric incorporation of other time-varying covariates. Our specific modeling choices enable efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo inference algorithms, which we provide to the user in the form of a freely available R package called brea. We demonstrate that our model performs better on our motivating substance abuse application than existing approaches. We also present a reproducible application of the brea software to a freely available data set from a clinical trial of anesthesia administration methods.

关键词： Competing risks Cox model Discrete time generalized additive models Recurrent events Semiparametric models Software Substance abuse

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The nocturnal distribution of deep-pelagic fish on the continental slope of the Bay of Biscay

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PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY 2023年 216卷

作者： Loutrage, Liz Spitz, Jerome Iglesias, Samuel P. Brind'Amour, Anik Rochelle Univ Observ Pelagis CNRS UAR 3462 La Rochelle France INRAE Inst Agrocampus Ecosyst Dynam & Sustainabil UMR DECOD IFREMER Nantes France Rochelle Univ Ctr Etud Biol Chize CEBC CNRS UMR 7372 Villiers En Bois France Sorbonne Univ Univ Antilles Inst Systemat Evolut Biodiversite ISYEB Stn Marine ConcarneauMuseum Natl Hist NaturelleC Concarneau France Rochelle Univ Observ Pelagis CNRS UAR 3462 5 Allees Ocean La Rochelle France

The biomass of deep-sea pelagic fishes could represent more than 90% of the total fish biomass on earth, which represents an important potential for exploitation. However, this community plays multiple key ecological roles in biogeochemical cycles and food webs. Information on their ecology and function is needed to plan effective sustainable conservation measures. In particular, the distribution of deep-sea pelagic fish biomass and the environmental factors that control it remain poorly understood on slope areas at the interface of coastal and oceanic habitats. The combined use of biological data collected by pelagic trawling between 20 and 2000 m depth at night and 16 environmental variables allowed us to study the distribution of this community on the continental slope of the Bay of Biscay, NE Atlantic. Multivariate regression tree analysis suggested that immersion depth was the most important variable structuring this community by night, defining four depth assemblages with different indicator species (i.e. organisms whose presence, absence, or biomass reflects specific environmental conditions): the epipelagic (20-175 m), the upper mesopelagic (175-700 m), the lower mesopelagic (700-1000 m) and the bathypelagic assemblage (1000-2000 m). The use of generalized additive models indicated a positive relationship between bottom proximity and biomass for three of the four assemblages. This contrasts with the paradigm in open ocean areas where the biomass of mesoand bathypelagic fishes decreases with depth. The echograms also showed low acoustic detection at the surface at night, which differs from the open ocean models where nocturnal migration results in a high density of mesopelagic organisms in the epipelagic layer. Different mechanisms could explain this relationship, such as the concentration of food resources in the benthic boundary layer, an ontogenetic change of some species, active horizontal migration, or a demersal spawning behavior. This specific distribu

关键词： Mesopelagic Bathypelagic Vertical distribution Benthic boundary layer generalized additive models Biomass

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Environmental Drivers of Gross Primary Production and Evapotranspiration at a Robinia pseudoacacia L. Restoration Plantation

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FORESTS 2023年第5期14卷

作者： Markos, Nikos Radoglou, Kalliopi Fotelli, Mariangela N. Democritus Univ Thrace Dept Forestry & Management Environm & Nat Resource Orestiada 68200 Greece Hellenic Agr Org Dimitra Forest Res Inst Thessaloniki 57006 Greece

Black locust is the second-most-often planted tree worldwide, particularly for restoration plantations, but drought dieback and growth declines are being reported. Currently, we lack information on these ecosystems' water and carbon fluxes, in relation to climatic variability. Here, we employed eddy covariance to determine the gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) of a black locust post-mining restoration plantation in NW Greece over c. 2.5 years. Additionally, we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) to study the effects of key environmental drivers (vapour pressure deficit-VPD, soil water content-SWC, solar radiation-Rg and enhanced vegetation index-EVI) on GPP and ET during summer months. Both diurnally and seasonally, GPP increased with increasing Rg, SWC and EVI, but was saturated after certain thresholds (Rg: 400 W m(-2), SWC: 25%, EVI: 0.65). In contrast, GPP declined strongly with increasing VPD. Overall, GPP was maintained at a high level, at the cost of ET, which constantly raised with increasing solar radiation and SWC and was not responsive to enhanced VPD, indicating a non-conservative water use. At present, these black locust plantations exhibit favourable productivity and no drought stress, but increasing VPD in the context of climate change may, ultimately, negatively impact these ecosystems.

关键词： black locust eddy covariance evapotranspiration gross primary production vapour pressure deficit solar radiation soil water content EVI generalized additive models

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The Effects of Metronomic and Maximum-Tolerated Dose Chemotherapy in Colorectal Cancer Angiogenesis: A Combined Approach Using Endoscopic Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy and mRNA Expression

The Effects of Metronomic and Maximum-Tolerated Dose Chemoth...

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作者： Mundo Ortiz, Ariel Isaac University of Arkansas

学位级别：Ph.D., Doctor of Philosophy

Colorectal cancer (CRC) continues to be one of the most incident and deadliest types of cancer worldwide. Chemotherapy has proven effective to reduce tumor burden for CRC patients, but there are several disadvantages associated with the use of mainstay maximtolerated dose (MTD) chemotherapeutic strategies. Metronomic chemotherapy (MET) has been developed as an alternative that addresses the shortcomings of maximum-tolerated dose chemotherapy but so far its effectiveness as a neoadjuvant strategy for CRC has not been *** dissertation uses a combined optics and molecular biology approach (using diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and mRNA expression) to study the changes in angiogenesis and metabolism in primary colorectal tumors receiving MTD and MET. In Chapter 2, we first developed and validated a miniaturized spectroscopy probe that enabled the longitudinal investigation of changes in perfusion in primary tumors. Our results showed that an increase in oxygenation occurs in MET and MTD-treated tumors. In Chapter 3, we presented generalized additive models as an appropriate methodology to analyze the non-linear trends in longitudinal data that are commonly found in biomedical research. In Chapter 4, we sought to provide molecular context to the observed changes in perfusion from Chapter 2 by quantifying relative changes the expression of genes associated with angiogenesis. We found that despite eliciting a similar response, the molecular mechanisms behind increases in perfusion in MET and MTD-treated tumors are different. Specifically, tumors treated with MET presented higher Hif-1a, Aldoa and Pgk1 expression, indicating increased glycolytic activity. Taken together, this work highlights that the opportunities and challenges of MET to treat CRC can be better understood by using combined modalities that complement the information of changes caused by chemotherapy.

关键词： 5-fluorouracil Azoxymethane Colorectal cancer Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy generalized additive models Metronomic chemotherapy

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PREDICTIVE CLAIM SCORES FOR DYNAMIC MULTI-PRODUCT RISK CLASSIFICATION IN INSURANCE

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ASTIN BULLETIN-THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ACTUARIAL ASSOCIATION 2021年第1期51卷 1-25页

作者： Verschuren, Robert Matthijs Univ Amsterdam Amsterdam Sch Econ Roetersstr 11 NL-1018 WB Amsterdam Netherlands

It has become standard practice in the non-life insurance industry to employ generalized linear models (GLMs) for insurance pricing. However, these GLMs traditionally work only with a priori characteristics of policyholders, while nowadays we increasingly have a posteriori information of individual customers available across multiple product categories. In this paper, we therefore develop a framework to capture this a posteriori information over several product lines using a dynamic claim score. More specifically, we extend the bonus-malus-panel model of Boucher and Inoussa (2014) and Boucher and Pigeon (2018) to include claim scores from other product categories and to allow for nonlinear effects of these scores. The application of the proposed multi-product framework to a Dutch property and casualty insurance portfolio shows that customers' individual claims experience can have a significant impact on the risk classification. Moreover, it indicates that considerably more profits can be gained by accounting for their multi-product claims experience.

关键词： Multi-product risk profiles dynamic claim score bonus-malus systems generalized additive models cross-selling potential insurance pricing

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Blue shark (Prionace glauca) occurrence and relative abundance in the western South Atlantic Ocean influenced by spatiotemporal variability, environmental variables, and oceanographic processes

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MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023年 183卷 105842页

作者： Rondon-Medicci, Maria Cardoso, Luis G. Mourato, Bruno Dalla Rosa, L. Univ Fed Rio Grande FURG Lab Ecol & Conservacao Megafauna Marinha Inst Oceanog Av Italia km 8 s-n Campus Carreiros BR-96203000 Rio Grande RS Brazil Univ Fed Rio Grande FURG Programa Posgrad Oceanog Biol Inst Oceanog Rio Grande RS Brazil Univ Fed Rio Grande FURG Lab Recursos Pesqueiros Demersais & Cefalopodes Inst Oceanog Rio Grande RS Brazil Univ Fed Sao Paulo UNIFESP Inst Mar Santos SP Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns in the distribution and relative abundance of blue sharks and their relationship with environmental variables and oceanographic processes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We modeled data on catch records from the Brazilian pelagic tuna longline fleet using generalized additive models (GAMs). The distribution of Prionace glauca was influenced by salinity, chlorophyll-a and temperature. Our models showed that both the catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE) and the probability of presence increased mainly between March and August. The CPUE was also influenced by ocean depth and sea surface height, and the probability of occurrence by ocean fronts and slope. The highest CPUE values and probability of occurrence of blue sharks tended to occur mainly in parts of the continental slope off Brazil and at the Rio Grande Rise, characterized by the presence of seamounts. Such hotspots for P. glauca could potentially be considered in fisheries management plans.

关键词： Prionace glauca Pelagic longline fisheries CPUE Occurrence generalized additive models Hotspots

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Association of the components of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and chronic kidney disease prevalence in China

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JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023年 339卷

作者： Zhang, Xingyuan Tao, Jiayi Lei, Fang Sun, Tao Lin, Lijin Huang, Xuewei Zhang, Peng Ji, Yan-Xiao Cai, Jingjing Zhang, Xiao-Jing Li, Hongliang Wuhan Univ Sch Basic Med Sci 115 Donghu Rd Wuhan 430060 Peoples R China Wuhan Univ Renmin Hosp Dept Cardiol 99 Zhangzhidong Rd Wuhan 430060 Peoples R China Yangtze Univ Dept Urol Huanggang Cent Hosp Huanggang Peoples R China Huanggang Inst Translat Med Huanggang Peoples R China Wuhan Univ Inst Model Anim Wuhan Peoples R China Cent South Univ Dept Cardiol Xiangya Hosp 3 Changsha Peoples R China

Previous research has implicated PM2.5 as a potential environmental risk factor for CKD, but little is known about the associations between its components and CKD. We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional study using the updated air pollution data in the nationwide population (N = 2,938,653). Using generalized additive models, we assessed the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its components (i.e., black carbon [BC], organic matter [OM], nitrate [NO3-], ammonium [NH4+], sulfate [SO42-]), and CKD prevalence. The air pollution data was estimated using high-resolution and high-quality spatiotemporal datasets of ground-level air pollutants in China. Besides, we adopted a novel quantile-based g-computation approach to assess the effect of a mixture of PM2.5 constituents on CKD prevalence. The average concentration of PM2.5 was 78.67 +/- 22.5 mu g/m(3), which far exceeded WHO AQG. In the fully adjusted generalized additive model, at a 10 km x 10 km spatial resolution, the ORs per IQR increase in previous 1-year average PM2.5 exposures was 1.380 (95%CI: 1.345-1.415), for NH4+ was 1.094 (95%CI: 1.062-1.126), for BC was 1.604 (95%CI: 1.563-1.646), for NO3- was 1.094 (95%CI: 1.060-1.130), for SO42- was 1.239 (95%CI: 1.208-1.272), and for the OM was 1.387 (95%CI: 1.354-1.421), respectively. Subgroup analysis showed females, younger, and healthier were more vulnerable to this effect. In the further exploration of the joint effect of PM2.5 compositions (OR 1.234 [95%CI 1.222-1.246]) per quartile increase in all 5 PM2.5 components, we found that PM2.5SO42- contributed the most. These findings provide important evidence for the positive relationship between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its chemical constituents and CKD prevalence in a Chinese health check-up population, and identified PM2.5SO42- has the highest contribution to this relationship. This study provides clinical and public health guidance for reducing specific air particle exposure for those at ris

关键词： PM2.5 constituents Chronic kidney disease generalized additive models Quantile-based g-computation

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Hourly Valley Concentration of Air Pollutants Associated with Increased Acute Myocardial Infarction Hospital Admissions in Beijing, China

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ATMOSPHERE 2023年第1期14卷

作者： Fu, Jia Liu, Yanbo Zhao, Yakun Tang, Siqi Chen, Yuxiong Liu, Yijie Han, Yitao Fan, Zhongjie Peking Union Med Coll & Chinese Acad Med Sci Peking Union Med Coll Hosp Beijing 100730 Peoples R China

(1) Background: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) imposes a great burden on global health. Few studies have demonstrated the effects of valley concentration of air pollutants on AMI hospital admissions. (2) Methods: Hospitalizations for AMI from 1 May 2014 to 31 December 2019 were analyzed. generalized additive models (GAM) were used to quantify the exposure-response association between the hourly peak, mean, and valley concentration of six air pollutants and AMI hospital admissions. Stratification analyses were conducted to identify the susceptible population. (3) Results: Hourly peak, mean, and valley concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO were significantly associated with AMI hospital admissions. Each 10-unit increase in the hourly valley concentration of them led to 0.50% (0.35-0.66%), 0.44 % (0.32-0.56%), 0.84% (0.47-1.22%), 1.86% (0.73-3.01%), and 44.6% (28.99-62.10%) excess risk in AMI hospital admissions, respectively. In addition, the effects of hourly valley concentration were larger than mean and peak concentrations. The effects in the female or older than 65 groups were larger than that in the male or younger than 65 groups. (4) Conclusions: PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO exposure contributed to increased AMI hospital admissions. Hourly valley concentration might be a more potent indicator of adverse cardiovascular events. Females and individuals older than 65 were more susceptible to ambient air pollutant exposure.

关键词： acute myocardial infarction air pollutants China hospital admission generalized additive models

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