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Introducing intense rainfall and snowmelt variables to implement a process-related non-stationary shallow landslide susceptibility analysis

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021年 786卷 147360页

作者： Camera, Corrado A. S. Bajni, Greta Corno, Irene Raffa, Mattia Stevenazzi, Stefania Apuani, Tiziana Univ Milan Dipartimento Sci Terra A Desio Milan Italy

The study objective was to derive a susceptibility model for shallow landslides that could include process-related non-stationary variables, to be adaptable to climate changes. We selected the territory of the Mont-Emilius and Mont-Cervin Mountain Communities (northern Italy) as the study area. To define summary variables related to landslide predisposing and triggering processes, we investigated the relationships between landslide occurrences and intense rainfall and snowmelt events (period 1991-2020). For landslide susceptibility mapping, we set up a generalized additive Model. We defined a reference model through variable penalization (relief, NDVI, land cover and geology predictors). Similarly, we optimized a model including the climate variables, checking their smooth functions to ensure physical plausibility. Finally, we validated the optimized model through a k-fold cross-validation and performed an evaluation based on contingency tables, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and variable importance (decrease in explained variance). The climate variables that resulted as being statistically and physically significant are the effective annual number of rainfall events with intensity-duration characteristics above a defined threshold (EAT(ean)) and the average number of melting events occurring in a hydrological year (MEn). In the optimized model, EAT(ean) and MEn accounted for 5% of the explained deviance. Compared to the reference model, their introduction led to an increase in true positive rate and AUROC of 2.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Also, their inclusion caused a transition of the vulnerability class in 11.0% of the study area. The k-fold validation confirmed the statistical significance and physical plausibility of the meteorological variables in 74% (EAT(ean)) and 93% (MEn) of the fitted models. Our results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach to introduce process-related, non-stationary, physically-plausible clima

关键词： Climate variables Slides in soil Flowslides generalized additive models Snow Water Equivalent Aosta Valley

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Responses of phytoplankton community structure and association to variability in environmental drivers in a tropical coastal lagoon

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021年 783卷 146873页

作者： Tarafdar, Lipika Kim, Ji Yoon Srichandan, Suchismita Mohapatra, Madhusmita Muduli, Pradipta R. Kumar, Abhishek Mishra, Deepak R. Rastogi, Gurdeep Chilika Dev Author Wetland Res & Training Ctr Balugaon 752030 Odisha India Natl Inst Environm Studies Ctr Climate Change Adaptat Tsukuba Ibaraki 3058506 Japan Univ Georgia Ctr Geospaticd Res Dept Geog Athens GA 30602 USA

Spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in phytoplankton communities are governed by many biotic and abiotic drivers. However, the identification of long-term spatial and temporal trends in abiotic drivers, and their interdependencies with the phytoplankton communities' structure is understudied in tropical brackish coastal lagoons. We examined phytoplankton communities' spatiotemporal dynamics from a 5-year dataset (n = 780) collected from 13 sampling stations in Chilika Lagoon, India, where the salinity gradient defined the spatial patterns in environmental variables. generalized additive models showed a declining trend in phytoplankton biomass, pH, and dissolved PO4 in the lagoon. Hierarchical modelling of species communities revealed that salinity (44.48 +/- 28.19%), water temperature (4.37 +/- 5.65%), and season (4.27 +/- 0.96%) accounted for maximum variation in the phytoplankton composition. Bacillariophyta (Indicator Value (IV): 0.74) and Dinophyta (IV: 0.72) emerged as top indicators for polyhaline regime whereas, Cyanophyta (IV: 0.81), Euglenophyta (IV: 0.79), and Chlorophyta (IV: 0.75) were strong indicators for oligohaline regime. The responses of Dinophyta and Chrysophyta to environmental drivers were much more complex as random effects accounted for similar to 70-75% variation in their abundances. Prorocentrum minimum (IV: 0.52), Gonyaulux sp. (IV: 052), and Alexundrium sp. (IV: 0.51) were potential indicators of P-limitation. Diploneis weissflogii (IV: 0.43), a marine diatom, emerged as a potential indicator of N-limitation. Hierarchical modelling revealed the positive association between Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Euglenophyta whereas, Dinophyta and Chrysophyta showed a negative association with Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Euglenophyta. Landsat 8-Operational Land Imager satellite models predicted the highest and lowest Cyanophyta abundances in northern and southern sectors, respectively, which were in accordance with the near-coincident field-based mea

关键词： Chilika Lagoon generalized additive models Joint species distribution modelling Salinity Cyanophyta modelling Remote sensing

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Global patterns for the spatial distribution of floating microfibers: Arctic Ocean as a potential accumulation zone

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JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 2021年 403卷 123796页

作者： Lima, Andre R. A. Ferreira, Guilherme V. B. Barrows, Abigail P. W. Christiansen, Katie S. Treinish, Gregg Toshack, Michelle C. ISPA Univ Inst Dept Biosci Marine & Environm Sci Ctr P-1149041 Lisbon Portugal Univ Fed Rural Pernambuco Dept Fishing & Aquaculture Recife PE Brazil Coll Atlantic Dept Biol 105 Eden St Bar Harbor ME 04609 USA Adventure Scientists POB 1834 Bozeman MT 59771 USA

Despite their representativeness, most studies to date have underestimated the amount of microfibers (MFs) in the marine environment. Therefore, further research is still necessary to identify key processes governing MF distribution. Here, the interaction among surface water temperature, salinity, currents and winds explained the patterns of MF accumulation. The estimated density of floating MFs is similar to 5900 +/- 6800 items m3 in the global ocean;and three patterns of accumulation were predicted by the proposed model: (i) intermediate densities in ocean gyres, Seas of Japan and of Okhotsk, Mediterranean and around the Antarctic Ocean;(ii) high densities in the Arctic Ocean;and (iii) point zones of highest densities inside the Arctic Seas. Coastal areas and upwelling systems have low accumulation potential. At the same time, zones of divergences between westerlies and trade winds, located above the tropical oceanic gyres, are predicted to accumulate MFs. In addition, it is likely that the warm branch of the thermohaline circulation has an important role in the transport of MFs towards the Arctic Ocean, emphasizing that surface water masses are important predictors. This study highlights that the Arctic Ocean is a dead end for floating MFs.

关键词： Synthetic fibers Hazardous waste Global microplastic distribution generalized additive models Spatial modelling

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A toolbox for visualizing trends in large-scale environmental data

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ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 2021年 136卷

作者： Bromssen, Claudia von Betner, Staffan Folster, Jens Eklof, Karin Swedish Univ Agr Sci Dept Energy & Technol Div Appl Stat & Math POB 7032 SE-75007 Uppsala Sweden Swedish Univ Agr Sci Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment Sect Geochem & Hydrol POB 7050 SE-75007 Uppsala Sweden

generalized additive models are increasingly used to identify and describe environmental trends. A major advantage of these models, as compared to simpler statistical tools such as linear regression or Mann-Kendall tests, is that they provide estimates of prevailing levels and trend magnitudes at any given point in time instead of an overall measure. For multiple time series, this versatility has to be followed by flexible visualization methods that can summarize and visualize trend analysis results for many series simultaneously. Here, we propose several types of visualizations and illustrate the methods by showing trends in variables related to the recovery from acidification in Swedish riverine data over the period 1988-2017. By this, we show that generalized additive models, together with a small number of selected plots, can comprehensively illustrate prevailing trends and summarize complex information from multiple series.

关键词： generalized additive models Visualization of trends Surface waters Acidification Chemical recovery

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Developing policy thresholds for objectively measured environmental features to support active travel

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT 2021年 90卷

作者： Wali, Behram Frank, Lawrence D. Chapman, Jim E. Fox, Eric H. Urban Design 4 Hlth Inc 24 Jackie Circle East Rochester NY 14612 USA MIT Senseable City Lab Cambridge MA 02139 USA

A novel evidence-based methodology is presented for determining place-based thresholds of objectively measured built environment features' relationships with active travel. Using an innovative machine-learning based generalized additive Modeling framework, systematic heterogeneity fundamental to the development of well-justified and objective environmental thresholds is accounted for. The methodology is employed to model an individual's likelihood of transport walking as a function of environmental factors using California Household Travel Survey linked with comprehensive built environment data. The results reveal strong and complex non-linear dependencies of likelihood of transport walking on environmental features that cannot be quantified using standard threshold detection methods. Thresholds for key environmental features to enhance active travel vary significantly across different socioeconomic groups. Accounting for strong income-based differences in development of environmental benchmarks is emphasized. The thresholds can serve as a useful guiding tool for policymakers, planners, engineers, and public health officials to track existing environmental conditions and healthy behaviors.

关键词： Walking for transport Objectively measured built environment Built-environment thresholds generalized additive models Thin plate regression splines Systematic heterogeneity

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Conditionally Independent Dyads (CID) network models: A latent variable approach to statistical social network analysis

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Social Networks 2020年 63卷 122-133页

作者： Dabbs, Beau Adhikari, Samrachana Sweet, Tracy Department of Statistics Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA United States Department of Population Health New York University School of Medicine New York NY United States Department of Human Development and Quantitative Methodology University of Maryland College Park MD United States

Latent variable network models that accommodate edge correlations implicitly, by assuming an underlying latent factor, are increasing in popularity. Although, these models are examples of what is a growing body of research, much of the research is focused on proposing new models or extending others. There has been very little work on unifying the models in a single framework. In this paper, we present a complete framework that organizes existing latent variable network models within an integrative generalized additive model. Our framework is called Conditionally Independent Dyad (CID) models, and includes existing network models that assume dyad (or edge) independence conditional on latent variables and other components in the model. We further discuss practical aspects of model fitting such as posterior parameter estimation via MCMC, identifiability of parameters, approaches to handle missing data and model selection via cross-validation, for the proposed additive CID models. Finally, by presenting several data examples, we illustrate the utility of the proposed framework and provide advice on selecting components for building new CID models. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.

关键词： Bayesian analysis generalized additive models Latent variable network models

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Delineating the relative contribution of climate related variables to chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton biomass in lakes using the ERAS-Land climate reanalysis data

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WATER RESEARCH 2021年 196卷 117053页

作者： Stefanidis, Konstantinos Varlas, George Vourka, Aikaterini Papadopoulos, Anastasios Dimitriou, Elias Hellen Ctr Marine Res Inst Marine Biol Resources & Inland Waters 46-7 Km Athens Sounio Ave Anavyssos 19013 Attica Greece

Understanding the climatic drivers of eutrophication is critical for lake management under the prism of the global change. Yet the complex interplay between climatic variables and lake processes makes prediction of phytoplankton biomass a rather difficult task. Quantifying the relative influence of climate-related variables on the regulation of phytoplankton biomass requires modelling approaches that use extensive field measurements paired with accurate meteorological observations. In this study we used climate and lake related variables obtained from the ERAS-Land reanalysis dataset combined with a large dataset of in-situ measurements of chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton biomass from 50 water bodies to develop models of phytoplankton related responses as functions of the climate reanalysis data. We used chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton biomass as response metrics of phytoplankton growth and we employed two different modelling techniques, boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS). According to our results, the fitted models had a relatively high explanatory power and predictive performance. Boosted regression trees had a high pseudo R-2 with the type of the lake, the total layer temperature, and the mix-layer depth being the three predictors with the higher relative influence. The best GAMLSS model retained mix-layer depth, mix-layer temperature, total layer temperature, total runoff and 10-m wind speed as significant predictors (p<0.001). Regarding the phytoplankton biomass both modelling approaches had less explanatory power than those for chlorophyll-a. Concerning the predictive performance of the models both the BRT and GAMLSS models for chlorophyll-a outperformed those for phytoplankton biomass. Overall, we consider these findings promising for future limnological studies as they bring forth new perspectives in modelling ecosystem responses to a wide range of climate and lake variables. As a concluding re

关键词： Lakes eutrophication chlorophyll-a boosted regression trees generalized additive models climate reanalysis

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Spatial segregation by size of billfishes bycaught by the tuna purse-seine fishery in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

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FISHERIES RESEARCH 2021年 241卷

作者： Crespo-Neto, Osman Diaz-Delgado, Eric Acosta-Pachon, Tatiana A. Martinez-Rincon, Raul O. Univ Ghent Dept Biol Marine Biol Res Grp Krijgslaan 281-S8 B-9000 Ghent Belgium Univ Autonoma Baja California Sur Dept Acad Ciencias Marinas & Costeras La Paz Baja California Mexico CONACYT Ctr Invest Biol Noroeste La Paz Baja California Mexico Univ Azores Okeanos R&D Ctr Horta Portugal Fano Marine Ctr Stn Zool Anton Dohrn Dept Integrat Marine Ecol Viale Adriatico 1-N I-61032 Fano Italy

Billfishes are large highly migratory fish species found in all the world's oceans. Several studies have been developed to understand how oceanographic and environmental variables influence marine species distribution, but little information exists about the size distribution of these important species. The main goal of this research was to describe the environmental conditions driving segregation by size of six billfish species on the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to describe the effect of environmental factors on the size of billfish species bycaught by the tuna purse-seine fishery in the EPO. Results suggest some or high degree of segregation of the billfishes related to its size and driven by environmental preferences. For striped marlin, black marlin, and blue marlin larger individuals are present at the south of 5 degrees N, where colder and highly productive waters are present while, smaller sailfish were present in warmer and productive areas located at north of 5 degrees N. These results may be useful to conduct further studies to detect nursery, reproduction or feeding areas of billfishes in both coastal and oceanic waters.

关键词： generalized additive models Environmental forcing Habitat preferences

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Modeling nearshore fish habitats using Alaska as a regional case study

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FISHERIES RESEARCH 2021年 238卷

作者： Gruss, Arnaud Pirtle, Jodi L. Thorson, James T. Lindeberg, Mandy R. Neff, A. Darcie Lewis, Steve G. Essington, Timothy E. Univ Washington Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci Box 355020 Seattle WA 98105 USA Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res 301 Evans Bay Parade Wellington 6021 New Zealand NOAA Habitat Conservat Div Natl Marine Fisheries Serv Juneau Fed BldgPOB 21668 Juneau AK USA NOAA Habitat & Ecol Proc Res Program Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr Natl Marine Fisheries Serv 7600 Sand Point Way NE Seattle WA 98115 USA NOAA Auke Bay Labs Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr Natl Marine Fisheries Serv 17109 Pt Lena Loop Rd Juneau AK 99801 USA Alaska BioMap POB 210696 Auke Bay AK 99821 USA NOAA Sustainable Fisheries Div Natl Marine Fisheries Serv Juneau Fed BldgPOB 21668 Juneau AK 99802 USA

Nearshore areas represent important habitats for many species, at least for part of their life cycle. Therefore, modeling and mapping nearshore habitats is essential for natural resource management and conservation, such as determining potential impacts to marine populations and their habitats from human activities and identifying conservation measures. Although fish survey and habitat data are uncommon for nearshore areas, two regional databases, the Nearshore Fish Atlas of Alaska (NFA) and ShoreZone, provide a rare opportunity to evaluate nearshore habitats for Alaska's shallow, nearshore fish assemblages. In the present study, we used the NFA and ShoreZone databases in a practical approach to model and map Alaska nearshore fish habitats. Specifically, we fitted generalized additive models (GAMs) to NFA and ShoreZone data to map the spatial patterns of probability of encounter and density of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) early juveniles in the northern southeastern Alaska (NSEA) area and walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) early juveniles in Prince William Sound (PWS). The density of Pacific cod early juveniles was found to be high in all of the western part of the NSEA area, particularly around Port Alexander. The density hotspots of walleye pollock early juveniles were found to be located in the northern and southernmost parts of PWS. Data inventories and modeling and mapping Alaska nearshore fish habitats provide valuable information to manage marine resources and human activities (e.g., to identify the main nursery areas of commercially important species along the Alaska coastline), and allow for other important ecological and ecosystem issues to be addressed (e.g., producing marine protected area planning scenarios to protect forage fishes used by large marine predators). The NFA and ShoreZone are valuable resources, and our efforts to leverage them to model and map nearshore fish habitats establishes a reference for similar efforts throughout Alaska's

关键词： Essential fish habitat Nearshore fish surveys Coastal habitat database generalized additive models Marine habitat mapping

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COGAM: Measuring and Moderating Cognitive Load in Machine Learning Model Explanations 20

COGAM: Measuring and Moderating Cognitive Load in Machine Le...

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CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI)

作者： Abdul, Ashraf von der Weth, Christian Kankanhalli, Mohan Lim, Brian Y. Natl Univ Singapore Sch Comp Singapore Singapore

ISBN: (纸本)9781450367080

Interpretable machine learning models trade off accuracy for simplicity to make explanations more readable and easier to comprehend. Drawing from cognitive psychology theories in graph comprehension, we formalize readability as visual cognitive chunks to measure and moderate the cognitive load in explanation visualizations. We present Cognitive-GAM (COGAM) to generate explanations with desired cognitive load and accuracy by combining the expressive nonlinear generalized additive models (GAM) with simpler sparse linear models. We calibrated visual cognitive chunks with reading time in a user study, characterized the trade-off between cognitive load and accuracy for four datasets in simulation studies, and evaluated COGAM against baselines with users. We found that COGAM can decrease cognitive load without decreasing accuracy and/or increase accuracy without increasing cognitive load. Our framework and empirical measurement instruments for cognitive load will enable more rigorous assessment of the human interpretability of explainable AI.

关键词： explanations explainable artificial intelligence cognitive load visual explanations generalized additive models

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