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Domain specific traits predict achievement in music and multipotentiality

INTELLIGENCE 2021年 89卷

作者： de Manzano, Orjan Ullen, Fredrik Karolinska Inst Dept Neurosci S-17177 Stockholm Sweden Max Planck Inst Empir Aesthet Dept Cognit Neuropsychol D-60322 Frankfurt Germany

Previous research shows that individuals choose careers based on the relative strengths of various traits. More debated however, is how specific combinations of traits predict individual differences in professional achievements. General intelligence is often proposed to be the best predictor of eminence, but some studies suggest that more specific traits can be relatively important when performance depends on specific skills and expertise. Here we identified a comprehensive set of variables relevant for music achievement (intelligence, auditory ability, absolute pitch, Big-five personality traits, psychosis proneness, music flow proneness, childhood environment and music practice), and tested how they predicted level of musicianship (non-musicians vs. amateur musicians vs. professional musicians) and number of achievements among professional musicians. We used web survey data from a total of 2150 individuals, and generalized additive models that can also reveal non-linear relationships. The results largely confirmed our three main hypotheses: (i) non-musicians, amateur musicians, and professional musicians are best differentiated by domain specific abilities, personality traits, and childhood factors;(ii) largely the same significant predictors are also associated with the number of creative achievements within professional musicians;(iii) individuals who reach a professional level in two domains (here science and music) possess the union of the relevant traits of both domains. In addition, many of the associations between predictors and achievement were non-linear. This study confirms that in music, and potentially in other occupational fields where performance relies on specific competences, domain relevant characteristics may be better predictors of engagement and creative achievement than broad traits.

关键词： Intelligence Achievement Music Creativity Expertise generalized additive models

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Freshwater species distributions along thermal gradients

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ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 2019年第1期9卷 111-124页

作者： Kaercher, Oskar Hering, Daniel Frank, Karin Markovic, Danijela Osnabruck Univ Appl Sci Fac Business Management & Social Sci Osnabruck Germany Univ Duisburg Essen Fac Biol Aquat Ecol Essen Germany UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res Ltd Dept Ecol Modelling Leipzig Germany Univ Osnabruck Inst Environm Syst Res Osnabruck Germany iDiv German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res Halle Jena Leipzig Germany

The distribution of a species along a thermal gradient is commonly approximated by a unimodal response curve, with a characteristic single optimum near the temperature where a species is most likely to be found, and a decreasing probability of occurrence away from the optimum. We aimed at identifying thermal response curves (TRCs) of European freshwater species and evaluating the potential impact of climate warming across species, taxonomic groups, and latitude. We first applied generalized additive models using catchment-scale global data on distribution ranges of 577 freshwater species native to Europe and four different temperature variables (the current annual mean air/water temperature and the maximum air/water temperature of the warmest month) to describe species TRCs. We then classified TRCs into one of eight curve types and identified spatial patterns in thermal responses. Finally, we integrated empirical TRCs and the projected geographic distribution of climate warming to evaluate the effect of rising temperatures on species' distributions. For the different temperature variables, 390-463 of 577 species (67.6%-80.2%) were characterized by a unimodal TRC. The number of species with a unimodal TRC decreased from central toward northern and southern Europe. Warming tolerance (WT = maximum temperature of occurrence-preferred temperature) was higher at higher latitudes. Preferred temperature of many species is already exceeded. Rising temperatures will affect most Mediterranean species. We demonstrated that freshwater species' occurrence probabilities are most frequently unimodal. The impact of the global climate warming on species distributions is species and latitude dependent. Among the studied taxonomic groups, rising temperatures will be most detrimental to fish. Our findings support the efforts of catchment-based freshwater management and conservation in the face of global warming.

关键词： climate change European freshwater generalized additive models preferred temperature safety margin thermal response warming tolerance

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What can cetacean stranding records tell us? A study of UK and Irish cetacean diversity over the past 100 years

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MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE 2019年第4期35卷 1527-1555页

作者： Coombs, Ellen J. Deaville, Rob Sabin, Richard C. Allan, Louise O'Connell, Mick Berrow, Simon Smith, Brian Brownlow, Andrew Doeschate, Mariel Ten Penrose, Rod Williams, Ruth Perkins, Matthew W. Jepson, Paul D. Cooper, Natalie UCL Genet Evolut & Environm Dept Gower St London WC1E 6BT England Nat Hist Museum Dept Life Sci Cromwell Rd London SW7 5BD England Zool Soc London Inst Zool UK Cetacean Strandings Invest Programme Wellcome BldgRegents Pk London NW1 4RY England Irish Whale & Dolphin Grp Kilrush V15 E762 County Clare Ireland Galway Mayo Inst Technol Marine & Freshwater Res Ctr Dublin Rd Galway H91 T8NW Ireland Scottish Marine Mammal Stranding Scheme SRUC Wildlife Unit Inverness IV2 4JZ Scotland Marine Environm Monitoring Llechryd SA43 2PS Cardigan Wales Cornwall Wildlife Trust Five Acres Truro TR4 9DJL England

There are many factors that may explain why cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises) strand. Around the UK and Ireland, over 20,000 stranding records have been collected since 1913, resulting in one of the longest, continuous, systematic stranding data sets in the world. We use this data set to investigate temporal and spatial trends in cetacean strandings and use generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate correlates of strandings. We find a dramatic increase in strandings since the 1980s, most likely due to increases in recording effort, and the formation of formal strandings networks. We found no correlation between the numbers of cetaceans stranding each year and several potential environmental and anthropogenic predictors: storms, geomagnetic activity, North Atlantic Oscillations, sea-surface temperature, and fishing catch. We suggest that this is because the scale of change in the variables is too coarse to detect any potential correlations. It may also highlight the idiosyncratic nature of species' responses to external pressures, and further the need to investigate other potential correlates of strandings, such as bycatch and military sonar. Long-term cetacean stranding data provide vital information on past and present diversity for common, rare, and inconspicuous species. This study underlines the importance of continued support for stranding networks.

关键词： cetaceans strandings diversity generalized additive models macroecology

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Seasonal phenology of four dominant copepods in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean: Insights from statistical analyses of sediment trap data

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POLAR SCIENCE 2019年 19卷 94-111页

作者： Tokuhiro, Koki Abe, Yoshiyuki Matsuno, Kohei Onodera, Jonaotaro Fujiwara, Amane Harada, Naomi Hirawake, Toru Yamaguchi, Atsushi Hokkaido Univ Grad Sch Fisheries Sci 3-1-1 Minato Cho Hakodate Hokkaido 0418611 Japan Hokkaido Univ Arctic Res Ctr Kita Ku Kita 21 Nishi 11 Sapporo Hokkaido 0010021 Japan Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol 2-15 Natsushima Cho Yokosuka Kanagawa 2370061 Japan

In recent years, marine ecosystems have changed due to the drastic sea ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean, but the relationship between copepod phenology and environmental drivers is unclear. To reveal the relationship, seasonal changes in the flux (abundance of swimmers), population structure, lipid accumulation and gonad maturation of four dominant copepods (Calanus hyperboreus, Metridia longa, Paraeuchaeta glacialis and Heterorhabdus norvegicus) were studied using a sediment trap deployed at a depth of 222 m in the Pacific-Arctic sector from October 2010 to September 2013. C. hyperboreus, mostly comprising copepodid stage 6 females (C6F), exhibited several peaks in flux in spring and autumn. C. hyperboreus C6Fs were dominated by lipid-rich specimens year-round, and gonad development was observed in these samples from February to April. The M. longa flux showed no clear seasonality. Gonad maturation of M. longa C6Fs occurred from February to September. P. glacialis flux exhibited two peaks in autumn of 2011 and 2012. In contrast to the former two species, lipid-rich, mature P. glacialis C6Fs occurred year-round. H. norvegicus copepodid stage 6 males (C6Ms) also occurred throughout the year, likely because H. norvegicus has functional feeding appendages, even in C6Ms. From generalized additive models, C. hyperboreus, M. longa and P. glacialis showed relationships with daytime length and/or sea ice concentrations, but the relationship patterns were different. These findings suggest that the response (e.g., vertical migration) to the environmental parameters could vary with species and the drastic sea ice reductions may affect the copepod phenology in the Pacific-Arctic sector.

关键词： generalized additive models Calanus hyperboreus Metridia longa Paraeuchaeta glacialis Heterorhabdus norvegicus

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A machine-learning approach to modeling picophytoplankton abundances in the South China Sea

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PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY 2020年 189卷

作者： Chen, Bingzhang Liu, Hongbin Xiao, Wupeng Wang, Lei Huang, Bangqin Univ Strathclyde Dept Math & Stat 26 Richmond St Glasgow G1 1XH Lanark Scotland Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Dept Ocean Sci Kowloon Clear Water Bay Hong Kong Peoples R China Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Guangzho Hong Kong Branch Hong Kong Peoples R China Xiamen Univ Coll Environm & Ecol State Key Lab Marine Environm Sci Xiamen Fujian Peoples R China Xiamen Univ Coll Environm & Ecol Fujian Prov Key Lab Coastal Ecol & Environm Studi Xiamen Fujian Peoples R China Minist Nat Resources Inst Oceanog 3 Xiamen Fujian Peoples R China

Picophytoplankton, the smallest phytoplankton (<3 mu m), contribute significantly to primary production in the oligotrophic South China Sea. To improve our ability to predict picophytoplankton abundances in the South China Sea and infer the underlying mechanisms, we compared four machine learning algorithms to estimate the horizontal and vertical distributions of picophytoplankton abundances. The inputs of the algorithms include spatiotemporal (longitude, latitude, sampling depth and date) and environmental variables (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and light). The algorithms were fit to a dataset of 2442 samples collected from 2006 to 2012. We find that the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) gives the best prediction performance with R-2 ranging from 77% to 85% for Chl a concentration and abundances of three picophytoplankton groups. The model outputs confirm that temperature and light play important roles in affecting picophytoplankton distribution. Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and picoeukaryotes show decreasing preference to oligotrophy. These insights are reflected in the vertical patterns of Chl a and picoeukaryotes that form subsurface maximal layers in summer and spring, contrasting with those of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus that are most abundant at surface. Our forecasts suggest that, under the "business-as-usual" scenario, total Chl a will decrease but Prochlorococcus abundances will increase significantly to the end of this century. Synechococcus abundances will also increase, but the trend is only significant in coastal waters. Our study has advanced the ability of predicting picophytoplankton abundances in the South China Sea and suggests that BRT is a useful machine learning technique for modelling plankton distribution.

关键词： Prochlorococcus Synechococcus Chlorophyll South China Sea Boosted Regression Trees generalized additive models Random Forest

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Modelling spatial biodiversity in the world's largest mangrove ecosystem-The Bangladesh Sundarbans: A baseline for conservation

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DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 2019年第5期25卷 729-742页

作者： Sarker, Swapan Kumar Reeve, Richard Paul, Nirmal K. Matthiopoulos, Jason Univ Glasgow Boyd Orr Ctr Populat & Ecosyst Hlth Inst Biodivers Anim Hlth & Comparat Med Coll Med Vet & Life Sci Glasgow Lanark Scotland Bangladesh Forest Dept Management Plan Div Khulna Bangladesh Shahjalal Univ Sci & Technol Dept Forestry & Environm Sci Sylhet Bangladesh

Aim Mangrove forests are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing, but poorly understood ecosystems. We aim to uncover the variables driving mangrove biodiversity and produce baseline biodiversity maps for the Sundarbans world heritage site-the Earth's largest contiguous mangrove ecosystem. Location The Bangladesh Sundarbans, South Asia. Methods We collected species abundance, environmental and disturbance data from 110 permanent sample plots (PSPs) covering the entire Bangladesh Sundarbans (6,017 km(2)). We applied generalized additive models to determine the key variables shaping the spatial distributions of mangrove diversity and community composition. Biodiversity maps were constructed using covariate-driven habitat models, and their predictive performances were compared with covariate-free (i.e., direct interpolation) approaches to see whether the inclusion of habitat variables bolster spatial predictions of biodiversity or whether we can rely on direct interpolation approaches when environmental data are not available. Results Historical forest exploitation, disease, siltation and soil alkalinity were the key stressors causing loss of alpha and gamma diversity in mangrove communities. Both alpha and gamma diversity increased along the downstream-to-upstream and riverbank-to-forest interior gradients. Mangrove communities subjected to intensive past tree harvesting, disease outbreaks and siltation were more homogeneous in species composition (beta diversity). In contrast, heterogeneity in species composition increased along decreasing salinity and downstream-to-upstream gradients. We find that the surviving biodiversity hotspots (comprising many globally endangered tree species) are located outside the established protected area network and hence open to human exploitation. We therefore suggest bringing them immediately under protected area management. Main conclusions We provide the first habitat-based modelling and mapping of alpha, beta and gamma dive

关键词： biodiversity conservation endangered species generalized additive models habitat rehabilitation protected area sea level rise

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Landscape-mediated edge effect in temperate deciduous forest: implications for oak regeneration

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LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 2019年第1期34卷 51-62页

作者： Garcia-Romero, Arturo Vergara, Pablo M. Granados-Pelaez, Carlos Santibanez-Andrade, Gabriela Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico Inst Geog Dept Phys Geog Ciudad Univ S-N Mexico City 04510 DF Mexico Univ Santiago De Chile Lab Ecol & Conservat Ave Libertador Bernardo OHiggins 3363 Santiago Chile Natl Inst Forestry Agr & Livestock Res INIFAP Natl Ctr Disciplinary Res Conservat & Improvement Ave Progreso 96 Mexico City 04100 DF Mexico

ContextAlthough the edge effect is known to be an important factor influencing the recruitment of trees in temperate forests, little is known of its synergistic relationships with landscape and fragment *** investigated how the edge effect on regeneration of oaks (Quercus spp.) varies with respect to fragment geometry, connectivity and landscape *** recorded oak sapling density along edge-interior gradients in 29 forest fragments at the periphery of Mexico City and examined the data with generalized additive *** nonlinear and landscape-mediated edge effect was supported by data, including the interactions of the edge distance with patch connectivity, shape and size. Saplings were more abundant at a distance of ca. 50m from the edge of small, large and connected patches, but large patches also exhibited reduced recruitment towards the interior of the patch. Conversely, sapling density in simple-shaped or connected patches was lower at the edge, exhibiting linear and concave-down increase trends towards the interior of patches, *** conditions could be interacting with interior forest conditions, making regeneration more frequent at 50m from the edge. Shady and cooler sites in large patches may be inhibiting oak regeneration. The activity of acorn-dispersing animals and oak predators may increase in unconnected patches, thus increasing the likelihood of edge effects. These results provide insights into the restoration of temperate forest patches in heterogeneous fragmented landscapes.

关键词： Tree regeneration Quercus spp Edge ecotones Landscape-scale factors generalized additive models

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Exceedance-based nonlinear regression of tail dependence

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EXTREMES 2019年第3期22卷 523-552页

作者： Mhalla, Linda Opitz, Thomas Chavez-Demoulin, Valerie Univ Geneva Geneva Sch Econ & Management CH-1205 Geneva Switzerland INRA Biostat & Spatial Proc F-84914 Avignon France Univ Lausanne Fac Business & Econ HEC CH-1015 Lausanne Switzerland

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling framework based on high threshold exceedances for estimating covariate-dependent joint tail characteristics for regimes of asymptotic dependence and asymptotic independence. The framework is based on suitably defined marginal pretransformations and projections of the random vector along the directions of the unit simplex, which lead to convenient univariate representations of multivariate exceedances based on the exponential distribution. Good performance of our estimators of a nonparametrically designed influence of covariates on extremal coefficients and tail dependence coefficients are shown through a simulation study. We illustrate the usefulness of our modeling framework on a large dataset of nitrogen dioxide measurements recorded in France between 1999 and 2012, where we use the generalized additive framework for modeling marginal distributions and tail dependence in large concentrations observed at pairs of stations. Our results imply asymptotic independence of data observed at different stations, and we find that the estimated coefficients of tail dependence decrease as a function of spatial distance and show distinct patterns for different years and for different types of stations (traffic vs. background).

关键词： Asymptotic independence Extreme value theory generalized additive models Penalized likelihood Tail dependence

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Is the built-environment at origin, on route, and at destination associated with bicycle commuting? A gender-informed approach

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JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY 2021年 94卷 None页

作者： Higuera-Mendieta, Diana Uriza, Pablo Andres Cabrales, Sergio A. Medaglia, Andres L. Guzman, Luis A. Sarmiento, Olga L. Univ Andes Sch Med Bogota Colombia Univ Andes Ctr Optimizat & Appl Probabil Dept Ind Engn Bogota Colombia Univ Andes Dept Civil & Environm Engn Grp Estudios Sostenibilidad Urbana & Reg SUR Bogota Colombia Univ Sergio Arboleda Sch Exact Sci & Engn Ind Engn Program Bogota Colombia

There is limited evidence on the gender differences and location-specific built-environment factors associated with bicycling in Latin American cities. This study aimed to assess commuting in Bogot & acute;a by (1) analyzing the gender-specific trend of the standardized number of bicycle commuters during 2005-2017;and (2) assessing the socio-demographic, community, built-environment and natural factors associated with bicycle commuting stratified by gender. This secondary-data analysis included data from the Household Travel Surveys and Multipurpose Surveys to calculate the number of bicycle commuters per habitant from 2005 to 2017 by gender. We assessed the socio-demographic and built-environment factors fitting generalized additive models stratified by gender using the 2015 Household Travel Survey. Although both women and men increased the standardized number of bicycle commuters, male commuters show a steeper trend than women, evidencing the widening gender gap in bicycle commuting over time. Bicycle commuting was negatively associated with household motor vehicle ownership, steeper terrain slope, longer commute distance, and scarce low-stress roads at trip origin and route. Among women, the availability of bike paths at the trip destination was positively associated with bicycling, while age and being a student were negatively associated with bicycling. Among men, living in areas with the lowest socio-economic status was positively associated with bicycling, while having a driver's license and living close to bus rapid transit stations were negatively associated with bicycling. In conclusion, bicycle and transport infrastructure play different roles in commuting by bicycle by gender and trip stages (origin-route-destination).

关键词： Bicycle Commuting Gender generalized additive models Latin America Urban health

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Temporal and spatial monitoring of HIV prevalence and incidence rates using geospatial models: Results from South African women

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SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2021年 37卷 100413页

作者： Wand, Handan Morris, Natashia Reddy, Tarylee Univ New South Wales Kirby Inst Kensington NSW 2052 Australia South African Med Res Council Biostat Unit GIS ZA-4091 Durban Kwazulu Natal South Africa South African Med Res Council Biostat Unit Durban Kwazulu Natal South Africa

generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to predict non-linear distributions of HIV prevalence and incidence based on semiparametric methods. The GAMs also provide smooth intensity maps by projecting the predicted HIV prevalence (or incidence) into the contour maps. Two sets of geo-coded data sources were used: (1) population-based cross-sectional data from 10,928 women who participated in four HIV behavioral surveys (2002-2017), (2) clinic-based longitudinal data from 7,557 women who resided in KwaZulu-Natal (2002-2016). Model estimated degrees of freedoms were 15.84,12.17,7.64 and 15.08 (20022012), indicating substantial spatial variations in HIV prevalence overtime. At localized-level these HIV incidence ranged from 15 to 18 per 100 person-year and scattered across the relatively homogeneous area within less than 100 km radius. These significant quantitative evidence were further supported by continuous-scale intensity maps. Our findings provided empirical and visual evidence for the changing face of the epidemic in South Africa using geospatial methods. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： generalized additive models Non-linear association HIV prevalence and incidence

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