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Advocating better habitat use and selection models in bird ecology

REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE ORNITOLOGIA 2018年第2期26卷 90-104页

作者： Xavier Palacio, Facundo Fac Ciencias Nat & Museo Div Zool Vertebrados Secc Ornitol Paseo Bosque S-NB1900FWA La Plata Buenos Aires Argentina Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn Paseo Bosque S-NB1900FWA La Plata Buenos Aires Argentina

Studies on habitat use and habitat selection represent a basic aspect of bird ecology, due to its importance in natural history, distribution, response to environmental changes, management and conservation. Basically, a statistical model that identifies environmental variables linked to a species presence is searched for. In this sense, there is a wide array of analytical methods that identify important explanatory variables within a model, with higher explanatory and predictive power than classical regression approaches. However, some of these powerful models are not widespread in ornithological studies, partly because of their complex theory, and in some cases, difficulties on their implementation and interpretation. Here, I describe generalized linear models and other five statistical models for the analysis of bird habitat use and selection outperforming classical approaches: generalized additive models, mixed effects models, occupancy models, binomial N-mixture models and decision trees (classification and regression trees, bagging, random forests and boosting). Each of these models has its benefits and drawbacks, but major advantages include dealing with non-normal distributions (presence-absence and abundance data typically found in habitat use and selection studies), heterogeneous variances, non-linear and complex relationships among variables, lack of statistical independence and imperfect detection. To aid ornithologists in making use of the methods described, a readable description of each method is provided, as well as a flowchart along with some recommendations to help them decide the most appropriate analysis. The use of these models in ornithological studies is encouraged, given their huge potential as statistical tools in bird ecology.

关键词： binomial mixture models classification trees generalized additive models generalized linear models mixed models occupancy models regression trees

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Distribution and abundance patterns of three coexisting species of Patella (Mollusca Gastropoda) in the intertidal areas of the NW Iberian Peninsula: Implications for management

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FISHERIES RESEARCH 2018年 198卷 86-98页

作者： Casal, Gema Acena-Matarranz, Sara Fernandez-Marquez, Diana Fernandez, Nuria Maynooth Univ Natl Ctr Geocomputat 2nd Floor Iontas BldgNorth Campus Maynooth Kildare Ireland Univ A Coruna Fac Ciencias Campus A Coruna La Coruna 15071 Spain Xefatura Terr A Coruna Consellerta Do Mar Xunta De Galici Spain

Using a combination of geostatistical methods and generalized additive models (GAMs), we have analyzed the combined effect of spatial, environmental and biological factors on the density of Patella vulgata, Patella depressa and Patella ulyssiponensis, three limpet species coexisting in rocky intertidal areas of the Galician coast (NW Iberian Peninsula). The best multivariate GAM fit to the data explained, on average, 54% of the observed variation in density of these species, revealing the influence of spatial (latitude and longitude) and environmental factors (temperature). The influence of biological factors such as reproductive status and density of the species, as well as those of coexisting species, was also detected. The results suggest the existence of spatial and temporal segregation behaviours to decrease intra- and interspecific competition. They confirm P. vulgata as a migratory species and reveal P. depressa also as a migrant limpet, while P. ulyssiponensis belongs to the non-migratory group. Geostatistical analysis showed that P. depressa is the dominant species in areas more exposed to wave action, whilst P. vulgata dominates sheltered area. In addition, the three limpet species are spatially structured in patches, whose density and size vary according to the type of coast (Atlantic/Cantabrian) and to the degree of wave exposure. These results reveal the importance of carrying out assessments at the local level and in those areas particularly vulnerable to exploitation, such as sheltered areas, where densities and recruitment are lower. This information can be useful for decision-making aimed at the management of this resource, as well as for the efficient distribution of effort with respect to geographical fishing areas.

关键词： Patella spp. Spatial distribution Geostatistics generalized additive models Management Sustainability

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Predictive distribution models of European hake in the south-central Mediterranean Sea

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HYDROBIOLOGIA 2018年第1期821卷 153-172页

作者： Garofalo, G. Fezzani, S. Gargano, F. Milisenda, G. Ben Abdallah, O. Hamida, N. Ben Hadj Jarboui, O. Chemmam-Abdelkader, B. Khoufi, W. Micallef, R. Mifsud, R. Gancitano, S. Rizzo, P. Zgozi, S. Ceriola, L. Arneri, E. Fiorentino, F. CNR Ist Ambiente Marino Costiero Mazara Del Vallo TP Italy Inst Natl Sci & Technol Mer Ctr La Goulette La Goulette Tunisia Univ Palermo Dept Energy Informat Engn & Math Models DEIM Palermo Italy Inst Natl Sci & Technol Mer Ctr Sfax Sfax Tunisia MSDEC Dept Fisheries & Aquaculture Fisheries Resource Unit Marsa Malta MBRC Tajura Libya FAO MedSudMed Dept Fisheries & Aquaculture Rome Italy

The effective management and conservation of fishery resources requires knowledge of their spatial distribution and notably of their critical life history stages. Predictive modelling of the European hake (Merluccius merluccius L., 1758) distribution was developed in the south-central Mediterranean Sea by means of historical fisheries-independent databases available in the region. The study area included the international waters of the south-central Mediterranean Sea and the territorial waters of Italy, Malta, Tunisia and Libya. Distribution maps of predicted population abundance index, and probabilistic occurrence of recruits and large adults were obtained by means of generalized additive models using depth and seafloor characteristics as predictors. Presence/absence data of the two life stages was obtained using threshold values applied to the mean weight of the survey catches. Modelling results largely matched previously reported knowledge on habitat preference of the species and its critical life phases. Hake recruits showed an occurrence peak at 200 m depth with preference for soft bottoms. Large adults preferred deeper and harder bottom substrates. Prediction maps allowed to improve our knowledge on the distributional patterns of one of the most important shared stocks in the south-central Mediterranean. This knowledge is essential for an appropriate development of regional-spatial-based management plans.

关键词： Species distribution modelling Merluccius merluccius generalized additive models Recruits habitat Large adults habitat Seafloor geophysical features Strait of Sicily

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Regional-scale surface temperature variability allows prediction of Pacific bluefin tuna recruitment

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ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE 2018年第4期75卷 1341-1352页

作者： Muhling, Barbara A. Tommasi, Desiree Ohshimo, Seiji Alexander, Michael A. DiNardo, Gerard Univ Calif Santa Cruz CIMEC La Jolla CA 92037 USA NOAA Southwest Fisheries Sci Ctr Natl Marine Fisheries Serv La Jolla CA 92037 USA Natl Res Inst Far Seas Fisheries Japan Fisheries Res & Educ Agcy Shimizu Ku 5-7-1 Orido Shizuoka 4248633 Japan NOAA Earth Syst Res Lab Boulder CO 80305 USA

Future sustainable management of fisheries will require resilience to the effects of environmental variability and climate change on stock productivity. In this study, we examined relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)in the region between Taiwan and the Sea of Japan, and annual recruitment of Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis: PBF) over the past 35 years. Spatial correlation maps showed that warmer SSTs south of Shikoku, in the East China Sea and in the Sea of Japan from summer to late fall were associated with above average recruitment. SST anomalies near larval and juvenile habitats were most strongly correlated with local air temperatures generalized additive models predicting annual PBF recruitment from SST fields suggested that the influence of SST on recruitment was stronger than that of spawning stock biomass. Correlations between SST and recruitment likely reflect biological processes relevant to early juvenile habitat suitability. The influence of late fall SSTs could also be a result of varying availability of age-0 fish to the troll fishery;however, the relative importance of these processes was not clear. Despite these knowledge gaps, the strong predictive power of SST on PBF recruitment can allow more proactive management of this species under varying environmental conditions.

关键词： fisheries oceanography generalized additive models Pacific bluefin tuna

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NONSTATIONARY MODELLING OF TAIL DEPENDENCE OF TWO SUBJECTS' CONCENTRATION

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ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS 2018年第2期12卷 1293-1311页

作者： Sharma, Kshitij Chavez-Demoulin, Valerie Dillenbourg, Pierre Univ Lausanne Fac Business & Econ Dept Operat CH-1015 Lausanne Switzerland Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne Chili Lab CH-1015 Lausanne Switzerland

We analyse eye-tracking data to understand how people collaborate. Our dataset consists of time series of measurements for eye movements, such as spatial entropy, calculated for each subject during an experiment when several pairs of participants collaborate to accomplish a task. We observe that pairs with high collaboration quality obtain their highest values of concentration (or equivalently lowest values of spatial entropy) occurring simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a flexible model that describes the tail dependence structure between two subjects' entropy when the pair is collaborating. More generally, we develop a generalized additive model (GAM) framework for tail dependence coefficients in the presence of covariates. As for any GAM-type model, the methodology can be used to predict collaboration quality or to explore how joint concentration depends on other cognitive operations and varies over time.

关键词： Collaborative learning copulas entropy generalized additive models tail dependence

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Automatic specification of piecewise linear additive models: application to forecasting natural gas demand

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STATISTICS AND COMPUTING 2018年第1期28卷 201-217页

作者： Gascon, Alberto Sanchez-Ubeda, Eugenio F. Comillas Pontif Univ Inst Res Technol IIT Tech Sch Engn ICAI Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26 Madrid 28015 Spain

When facing any forecasting problem not only is accuracy on the predictions sought. Also, useful information about the underlying physics of the process and about the relevance of the forecasting variables is very much appreciated. In this paper, it is presented an automatic specification procedure for models that are based on additivity assumptions and piecewise linear regression. This procedure allows the analyst to gain insight about the problem by examining the automatically selected model, thus easily checking the validity of the forecast. Monte Carlo simulations have been run to ensure that the model selection procedure behaves correctly under weakly dependent data. Moreover, comparison over other well-known methodologies has been done to evaluate its accuracy performance, both in simulated data and in the context of short-term natural gas demand forecasting. Empirical results show that the accuracy of the proposed model is competitive against more complex methods such as neural networks.

关键词： generalized additive models Prediction Natural gas demand Short-term forecasting Piecewise linear models Nonlinear modeling

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Moderate fire severity is best for the diversity of most of the pollinator guilds in Mediterranean pine forests

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ECOLOGY 2019年第3期100卷 e02615-e02615页

作者： Lazarina, Maria Devalez, Jelle Neokosmidis, Lazaros Sgardelis, Stefanos P. Kallimanis, Athanasios S. Tscheulin, Thomas Tsalkatis, Panagiotis Kourtidou, Marina Mizerakis, Vangelis Nakas, Georgios Palaiologou, Palaiologos Kalabokidis, Konstantinos Vujic, Ante Petanidou, Theodora Univ Aegean Dept Geog Lab Biogeog & Ecol Mitilini 81100 Greece Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki Sch Biol Dept Ecol Thessaloniki 54124 Greece Univ Aegean Dept Geog Mitilini 8110 Greece Univ Novi Sad Dept Biol & Ecol Trg Dositeja Obradovica 2 YU-21000 Novi Sad Serbia

Fire, a frequent disturbance in the Mediterranean, affects pollinator communities. We explored the response of major pollinator guilds to fire severity, across a fire-severity gradient at different spatial scales. We show that the abundance of all pollinator groups responded to fire severity, and that bees and beetles showed in addition a significant species-diversity response. Bees, sawflies, and wasps responded to fire severity at relatively small spatial scales (250-300 m), whereas flies and beetles responded at larger spatial scales. The response of bees, sawflies, and wasps was unimodal, as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, whereas flies and beetles showed a negative response. A possible explanation is that the observed patterns (spatial scale and type of response) are driven by taxa-specific ecological and life-history traits, such as nesting preference and body size, as well as the availability of resources in the postfire landscape. Our observational study provides an insight into the effect of fire severity on pollinators. However, future research exploring the explicit link between the pre- and postfire landscape structure and pollinator traits and responses is required for further establishment and understanding of cause-effect relationships.

关键词： abundance bee flies bees beetles diversity fire severity generalized additive models hoverflies intermediate disturbance hypothesis sawflies wasps

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The naming of orphans in France during World War One: A study of a nationwide cohort of pupilles de la Nation

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HISTORICAL METHODS 2018年第2期51卷 82-91页

作者： Todd, Nicolas Valleron, Alain-Jacques Bougneres, Pierre INSERM U1169 Paris France

The investigation of a simple behavior, child naming, can provide insights into the varying reactions of families confronted by the extraordinary war losses of the First World War. The current study analyses names given in a large cohort of French orphans born 1914-1916, constructed thanks to the linkage of civil registers with a nationwide database of soldiers who died during the War. It shows that a prenatal loss of father was associated with a strong increase in father's name transmission. The phenomenon was twice as intense in officers' offspring. Regression analysis suggests the precise timing of the father's death controlled this change in naming behavior: father's name transmission was at a maximum when the father died at the very beginning of pregnancy.

关键词： World War One bereavement maternal behavior child naming generalized additive models

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Artificial light at night confounds broad-scale habitat use by migrating birds

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ECOLOGY LETTERS 2018年第3期21卷 356-364页

作者： McLaren, James D. Buler, Jeffrey J. Schreckengost, Tim Smolinsky, Jaclyn A. Boone, Matthew van Loon, E. Emiel Dawson, Deanna K. Walters, Eric L. Univ Delaware Dept Entomol & Wildlife Ecol Newark DE 19716 USA Environm & Climate Change Canada Natl Wildlife Res Ctr Ottawa ON K1A 0H3 Canada Univ Amsterdam Theoret & Computat Ecol Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam NL-1090 GE Amsterdam Netherlands US Geol Survey Patuxent Wildlife Res Ctr Laurel MD 20708 USA Old Dominion Univ Dept Biol Sci Norfolk VA 23529 USA

With many of the world's migratory bird populations in alarming decline, broad-scale assessments of responses to migratory hazards may prove crucial to successful conservation efforts. Most birds migrate at night through increasingly light-polluted skies. Bright light sources can attract airborne migrants and lead to collisions with structures, but might also influence selection of migratory stopover habitat and thereby acquisition of food resources. We demonstrate, using multi-year weather radar measurements of nocturnal migrants across the northeastern U.S., that autumnal migrant stopover density increased at regional scales with proximity to the brightest areas, but decreased within a few kilometers of brightly-lit sources. This finding implies broad-scale attraction to artificial light while airborne, impeding selection for extensive forest habitat. Given that high-quality stopover habitat is critical to successful migration, and hindrances during migration can decrease fitness, artificial lights present a potentially heightened conservation concern for migratory bird populations.

关键词： Artificial light at night conservation ecological modelling generalized additive models landbird migration landscape ecology machine learning migratory stopover stochastic boosting weather surveillance radar

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Development of Accident Modification Factors for Rural Frontage Road Segments in Texas Using generalized additive models

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JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING 2011年第1期137卷 74-83页

作者： Li, Xiugang Lord, Dominique Zhang, Yunlong Texas A&M Univ College Stn TX 77843 USA Oregon Dept Transportat Salem OR 97301 USA

The objective of this study consists of assessing the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) for estimating accident modification factors (AMFs). GAMs are a new type of models that have been recently introduced by the statistical community for modeling observed data. These models offer more flexible functional forms than traditional generalized linear models and allow for more adaptable variable interactions. As recently documented in the literature, variable interactions should be included in the development of AMFs. To accomplish the study objective, AMFs were derived from GAMs using data collected on rural frontage roads in Texas. The AMFs were then compared to the AMFs produced from a previous study using the same data set. The results of the study show that AMFs produced from GAMs are more flexible to characterize the safety effect of simultaneous changes in geometric and operational features (or variable interactions) than when independent AMFs are applied together. The results also show that GAMs indicated a nonlinear relationship between crash risk and changes in lane and shoulder widths for frontage roads in Texas.

关键词： Regression models Accident modification factors generalized additive models Frontage roads Texas

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