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Bivariate Severity Analysis of Train Derailments using Copula-Based Regression models

ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING 2018年第4期4卷

作者： Martey, Emmanuel Nii Attoh-Okine, Nii Univ Delaware Dept Civil & Environm Engn 301 Pierre S Du Pont Hall127 Green Newark DE 19716 USA

The far-reaching consequences of train derailments have been a major concern to industry and government despite their relatively low occurrence. These consequences include injury, loss of life and property, interruption of services, and destruction of the environment. Thus, it is imperative to carefully examine train derailment severity. The majority of extant literature has failed to consider the multivariate nature of derailment severity and has instead focused mainly on only one severity outcome, namely, the number of derailed cars. However, it is also important to analyze the monetary damage incurred by railroads during derailments. In this paper, a joint mixed copula-based model for derailed cars and monetary damage is presented for the combined analysis of their relationship with a set of covariates that might affect both outcomes. Marginal generalized regression linear models are combined with a bivariate copula, which characterizes the dependence between the two variables. Copulas also address endogeneity due to similar unobserved or omitted variables that may affect both response variables. The copula-based regression model was found to be more appropriate than the independent multivariate regression model. The incorporation of the copula to characterize the dependence resulted in a greater effect on the dispersion estimate than the point estimates. Derailment speed was found to have the most pronounced effect on both response variables. However, it was found to have a greater impact on monetary damage than the number of derailed cars. (C) 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.

关键词： Copulas Derailment severity Rail Railroad safety Copula regression generalized linear models

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Logistic Regression and Response Surface Design for Statistical Modeling of Investment Casting Process in Metal Foam Production

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Procedia CIRP 2018年 67卷 504-509页

作者： Alfredo Anglani Massimo Pacella Department of Ingegneria dellInnovazione University of Salento Piazza Tancredi 7 73100 LecceITALY

A metal foam represents a promising material since it keeps the high mechanical properties of the metal while reducing the weight up to 90%. Among several manufacturing processes, the investment casting is a foundry process flexible enough to be suitable both for stochastic and for regular foams. This paper presents an experimental determination of the manufacturing process of metal regular foams by investment casting. The goal is to derive experimentally an actual formability map. The use of logistic regression and response surface design is proposed as an effective tool for determining a statistical model of the metal foam casting process.

关键词： Metal foams Logistic regression generalized linear models Design of Experiments (DoE)

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Unobtrusive Detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults Through Home Monitoring

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IEEE JOURNAL OF BIOMEDICAL AND HEALTH INFORMATICS 2017年第2期21卷 339-348页

作者： Akl, Ahmad Snoek, Jasper Mihailidis, Alex Univ Toronto Inst Biomat & Biomed Engn Toronto ON M5G 1V7 Canada Harvard Univ Harvard Sch Engn & Appl Sci Cambridge MA 02138 USA

The early detection of dementias such as Alzheimer's disease can in some cases reverse, stop, or slow cognitive decline and in general greatly reduce the burden of care. This is of increasing significance as demographic studies are warning of an aging population in North America and worldwide. Various smart homes and systems have been developed to detect cognitive decline through continuous monitoring of high risk individuals. However, the majority of these smart homes and systems use a number of predefined heuristics to detect changes in cognition, which has been demonstrated to focus on the idiosyncratic nuances of the individual subjects, and thus, does not generalize. In this paper, we address this problem by building generalized linear models of home activity of older adults monitored using unobtrusive sensing technologies. We use inhomogenous Poisson processes to model the presence of the recruited older adults within different rooms throughout the day. We employ an information theoretic approach to compare the generalized linear models learned, and we observe significant statistical differences between the cognitively intact and impaired older adults. Using a simple thresholding approach, we were able to detect mild cognitive impairment in older adults with an average area under the ROC curve of 0.716 and an average area under the precision-recall curve of 0.706 using activity models estimated over a time window of 12 weeks.

关键词： Clinical dementia rating (CDR) generalized linear models inhomogeneous poisson processes mild cognitive impairment unobtrusive sensing technologies

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An assessment of the determinants of Mauritian automobile insurance claims using negative binomial and gamma regression models

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JOURNAL OF STATISTICS & MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 2018年第5期21卷 725-740页

作者： Summun, K. Khan, N. Mamode Jannoo, Z. Sunecher, Y. Veerasamy, I. Univ Mauritius Fac Social Studies & Humanities Dept Econ & Stat Reduit 80837 Mauritius

This paper focuses on the factors that influence the Mauritian automobile insurance claims;a process known as automobile ratemaking. The response variables are the average claim frequency counts and the claim severity. These two components are then combined to provide the pure premium. generalized linear models are used to measure the influence of some predictors on these two response variables. More specifically, the Negative Binomial and Gamma regression models are used to fit the claim frequency and severity respectively. The descriptive and inferential analysis was done using the R Software and was based on robust statistical criterions such as G-Statistics and Akaike Information Criterion. Gender, claim condition, age of the client, accident frequency and servicing frequency are the essential determinants of the claim frequency while claim condition, age of the client and vehicle's make are the significant predictors of the claim severity.

关键词： Automobile ratemaking Claim frequency Claim severity generalized linear models Negative binomial Gamma

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Annoyance from Multiple Transportation Noise: Statistical models and Outlier Detection

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Methods of Information in Medicine 2018年第5期43卷 510-515页

作者： S. Kuhnt C. Schürmann B. Griefahn

Objective: Statistical models for the annoyance from multiple transportation noise are needed to understand and predict the annoyance resulting from specific noise exposures. Methods: models from the class of generalized linear models are suggested and discussed. Observations which are not well explained by the considered model are regarded as outliers. Outlier detection methods are applied to the data modelled by robust estimates using different link functions. Results: The discussed methods are applied to data from a laboratory experiment using generalized linear models. While considering outliers, a generalized linear model with a complementary log-log link is found to be a good choice in modelling the exposure-response relationship between noise levels and annoyance.

关键词： generalized linear models transportation noise outliers link function

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Principal components adjusted variable screening

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COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS 2017年 110卷 134-144页

作者： Liu, Zhongkai Song, Rui Zeng, Donglin Zhang, Jiajia North Carolina State Univ Dept Stat Raleigh NC 27695 USA Univ N Carolina Dept Biostat Chapel Hill NC USA Univ South Carolina Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Columbia SC 29208 USA

Marginal screening has been established as a fast and effective method for high dimensional variable selection method. There are some drawbacks associated with marginal screening, since the marginal model can be viewed as a model misspecification from the joint true model. A principal components adjusted variable screening method is proposed, which uses top principal components as surrogate covariates to account for the variability of the omitted predictors in generalized linear models. The proposed method is demonstrated with superior numerical performance compared with the competing methods. The efficiency of the method is also illustrated with the analysis of the Affymetrix genechip rat genome 230 2.0 array data and the European American SNPs data. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： generalized linear models Principal components Variable selection Sure screening

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Relations Between Information and Estimation in Discrete-Time Levy Channels

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY 2017年第6期63卷 3579-3594页

作者： Jiao, Jiantao Venkat, Kartik Weissman, Tsachy Stanford Univ Dept Elect Engn Stanford CA 94305 USA PDT Partners New York NY 10019 USA

Fundamental relations between information and estimation have been established in the literature for the discrete-time Gaussian and Poisson channels. In this paper, we demonstrate that such relations hold for a much larger class of observation models. We introduce the natural family of discrete-time Levy channels where the distribution of the output conditioned on the input is infinitely divisible. For Levy channels, we establish new representations relating the mutual information between the channel input and output to an optimal expected estimation loss, thereby unifying and considerably extending results from the Gaussian and Poisson settings. We demonstrate the richness of our results by working out two examples of Levy channels, namely the gamma channel and the negative binomial channel, with corresponding relations between information and estimation. Extensions to the setting of mismatched estimation are also presented.

关键词： Mutual information relative entropy estimation error SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) generalized linear models Levy process exponential family infinite divisibility Gaussian channel Poisson channel Bregman divergence

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Does adoption of electronic health records improve the quality of care management in France? Results from the French e-SI (PREPS-SIPS) study

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INFORMATICS 2017年 102卷 156-165页

作者： Plantier, Morgane Havet, Nathalie Durand, Thierry Caquot, Nicolas Amaz, Camille Biron, Pierre Philip, Irene Perrier, Lionel Ctr Lutte Canc Leon Berard Direct Rech Clin & Innovat 28 Rue Laennec F-69008 Lyon France Univ Claude Bernard Lyon 1 Univ Lyon ISFA Lab SAF 50 Ave Tony Garnier F-69007 Lyon France Ctr Lutte Canc Leon Berard Direct Syst Informat 28 Rue Laennec F-69008 Lyon France Grp Hosp Mutualiste Grenoble 8 Rue Dr Calmette F-38000 Grenoble France Ctr Lutte Canc Leon Berard 28 Rue Laennec F-69008 Lyon France Ctr Lutte Canc Leon Berard Direct Qual 28 Rue Laennec F-69008 Lyon France Univ Lyon CNRS UMR 5824 GATE Lyon St Etienne Lyon France

Background: Electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly being adopted by healthcare systems worldwide. In France, the "Hopital numerique 2012-2017" program was implemented as part of a strategic plan to modernize health information technology (HIT), including the promotion of widespread EHR use. With significant upfront investment costs as well as ongoing operational expenses, it is important to assess this system in terms of its ability to result in improvements in hospital performances. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of EHR use on the quality of care management in acute care hospitals throughout France. Methods: This retrospective study was based on data derived from three national databases for the year 2011: IPAQSS (indicators of improvement in the quality and the management of healthcare, "IPAQSS"), Hospi-Diag (French hospital performance indicators), and the national accreditation database. Several multivariate models were used to examine the association between the use of EHRs and specific EHR features with four quality indicators: the quality of patient record, the delay in sending information at hospital discharge, the pain status evaluation, and the nutritional status evaluation, while also adjusting for hospital characteristics. Results: The models revealed a significant positive impact of EHR use on the four quality indicators. Additionally, they showed a differential impact according to the functionality of the element of the health record that was computerized. All four quality indicators were also impacted by the type of hospital, the geographical region, and the severity of the pathology. Conclusion: These results suggest that, to improve the quality of care management in hospitals, EHR adoption represents an important lever. They complete previous work dealing with EHR and the organizational performance of hospital surgical units.

关键词： Electronic health record Hospital generalized linear models Quality of care management

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A data mining application to deposit pricing: Main determinants and prediction models

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APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING 2017年 60卷 808-819页

作者： Batmaz, Inci Danisoglu, Seza Yazici, Ceyda Kartal-Koc, Elcin Middle East Tech Univ Fac Arts & Sci Dept Stat Dumlupinar Bulvari 1 TR-06800 Ankara Turkey Middle East Tech Univ Fac Econ & Adm Sci Dept Business Adm Dumlupinar Bulvari 1 TR-06800 Ankara Turkey Middle East Tech Univ Dumlupinar Bulvari 1 TR-06800 Ankara Turkey TARU Engn METU Technopk Dumlupinar Bulvari 1 TR-06800 Ankara Turkey

This study provides unique empirical evidence regarding the determinants of deposit pricing by employing data mining methods and making use of proprietary data provided by a commercial bank. Results highlight the importance of taking into account customer- and account-specific characteristics in the determination of deposit rates. Contrary to existing evidence obtained from macro-level bank data, the customer- level data used in this study suggest that depositors with a multi-faceted and long-term relationship with the same bank seem to benefit from higher deposit rates as a reward for being a core depositor. The location of the customer is also shown to have a limited effect on the deposit rates. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Deposit pricing Deposit rates Core deposits generalized linear models Multivariate adaptive regression splines Support vector regression Artificial neural networks Classification and regression trees Random forest

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Laplace approximations and Bayesian information criteria in possibly misspecified models

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COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS 2017年第24期46卷 12240-12258页

作者： Miyata, Yoichi Takasaki City Univ Econ Fac Econ Takasaki Gunma Japan

We provide general conditions to ensure the valid Laplace approximations to the marginal likelihoods under model misspecification, and derive the Bayesian information criteria including all terms of order O-p(1). Under conditions in theorem 1 of Lv and Liu [J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 76, (2014), 141-167] and a continuity condition for prior densities, asymptotic expansions with error terms of order o(p)(1) are derived for the log-marginal likelihoods of possibly misspecified generalized linear models. We present some numerical examples to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed information criteria in misspecified models.

关键词： Bayesian information criteria generalized linear models Laplace approximations shrinking neighborhoods

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