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input-output model for forecasting economic and environmental effects of smart meters deployment in Poland

Energy 2025年 328卷

作者： Łukasz Lach Sławomir Kopeć Krzysztof Heller Janusz Zyśk Ewa Adamiec Marek Kisiel-Dorohinicki Ada Brzoza-Zajęcka Krzysztof Gaska AGH University of Krakow Al. Mickiewicz 30 30-059 Kraków Poland Silesian University of Technology ul. Konarskiego 18 44-100 Gliwice Poland

To the best of our knowledge this paper is the first attempt to estimate the macroeconomic and environmental effects that can be generated by widespread deployment of smart meters. The study applies macroeconomic data published by Central Statistical Office of Poland, and data developed in the framework of the Energy Transition Observatory (ETO) – a strategic project run by AGH University of Krakow, the Ministry of Climate and Environment of Poland, and the National Centre for Nuclear Research. Based on the collected dataset, unit investment and operational IO multipliers were calculated by means of an extended Leontief IO model, which set the ground for estimating the dynamics of three types of macroeconomic effects (employment, value added, global production) and climate and environmental effects (CO 2 emissions), as well as the green energy production effects (feasible system and share of RES) for the three considered development scenarios of the discussed technology until 2040. The results show that it is possible to seek to maintain an almost constant level of approximately 6000 of full-time jobs in the smart meters industry in 2031–2040 in all the three scenarios under consideration. The proposed research framework may be straightforwardly applied in analogous case studies focused on other countries.

关键词： Energy transition Poland CO 2 emission input-output model Smart meters Advanced metering infrastructure

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Employment impact assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China's power sector based on input-output model

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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2019年第15期26卷 15665-15676页

作者： Jiang, Yong Lei, Yalin Yan, Xin Yang, Yongzhi China Univ Geosci Sch Econ & Management Beijing 10083 Peoples R China Minist Nat Resources Key Lab Carrying Capac Assessment Resources & Env Beijing 100083 Peoples R China Petrochina Res Inst Petr Explorat & Dev Beijing 100083 Peoples R China

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be an effective measurement for carbon emission reduction in China. This paper summarizes the development of power sector in 2020, 2030, and 2050, and it classifies 18 scenarios including with and without CCS, respectively, in G1:low, G2:middle, and G3:high in 2020, 2030, and 2050. It adopts China's input-output table (IO table) and analyzes the different mitigation strategies for power sector. In particular, this paper builds a new China's input-output table based on aggregating the sectors in IO table and disaggregating the power sector into 11 different technologies which are coal-fire power, coal-fire power with CCS, natural gas power, natural gas power with CCS, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, biomass power, geothermal power, and ocean power. Through input-output model, this paper estimates gross value added (GVA) and employment effects of different scenarios of different technologies in power sector in China. It finds that the differences of GVA and employment effects among different scenarios are large. In CCS scenarios, the coal-fire power with CCS contribute 1.48-1.63 x 10(10) RMB in 2020, 1.09-1.55 x 10(10) RMB in 2030, and 0.85-1.20 x 10(10) RMB in 2050 for gross value added. Meanwhile, the employments of coal-fire power with CCS can add the jobs of 11,966-17,159 in 2020;10,419-16,228 in 2030;and 8977-12,571 in 2050. CCS sector contributes the higher employment than in the renewable power sectors. Meanwhile, coal mining industry, equipment manufacturing industry, and metallic industry take main contribution to the employment of CCS sector.

关键词： Employment impact CCS China's power sector input-output model

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The efficiency of remanufacturing in a dynamic input-output model

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CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 2008年第3期16卷 317-328页

作者： Dobos, Imre Floriska, Adel Corvinus Univ Budapest Inst Business Econ H-1093 Budapest Hungary Szent Istvan Univ Inst Math & Informat H-2100 Godollo Hungary

For industrialised economy of ourdays, remanufacturing represents perhaps the largest unexploited resource and opportunity for realising a greater growth of the economy in an environmental-conscious manner. The aim of this paper is to investigate of the impact of remanufacturing in the economy from an economic-efficiency point of view. In static context this phenomenon was analysed in the literature. We use the multi-sector input-output framework in a dynamic context to study intra-period relationships of the sectors of economy. We extend the classical dynamic input-output model taking into consideration the activity of remanufacturing .We try to answer the question, whether the remanufacturing/reuse increases the growth possibility of an economy. We expose a sufficient condition concerning the effectivity of an economy with remanufacturing. By this evaluation we analyse a possible sustainable development of the economy on the basis of the product recovery management of industries.

关键词： remanufacturing reuse input-output model Leontief model sustainable development balanced growth path product recovery management

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MULTI-SECTOR CURRENCY FLOWS BASED ON THE input-output model, PART 1: THEORY AND TECHNIQUES

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INNOVATIVE COMPUTING INFORMATION AND CONTROL 2011年第11期7卷 6319-6334页

作者： Wang, Xuefeng Fang, Qianqing Harbin Inst Technol Sch Management Harbin 150001 Peoples R China

This paper imitated the Leontief input-output model to study the multi-sector currency flows according to the characteristics of the currency flow. We classified all subjects of the social economic system into several sectors, and described the components of the currency flows for every sectors. We established a gridiron type table that can simulate the real interdepartmental currency flows of the economic system, and gave out several quantitative equilibrium relations in the input-output table. After we separated the deposits and loans respectively from the currency inflows and outflows of commercial banks, we obtained two mathematical models that are consistent with the Leontief input-output model. On the assumption that the ratios of currency inflows are fixed, we deduced the horizontal input-output equations, and on the assumption that the ratios of currency outflows are fixed, we deduced the vertical input-output equations. We introduced the concepts of direct inflow coefficient, complete inflow coefficient, direct outflow coefficient and complete outflow coefficient. By means of the complete inflow coefficient matrix and the complete outflow coefficient matrix, it is easy to study the quantitative relations between the gross currency flows of sectors and commercial banks' deposit and loan scale.

关键词： Currency flow Currency inflow Currency outflow input-output model

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Evaluation of a carbon tax in Costa Rica linking a demand system focused on energy goods and an input-output model

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APPLIED ENERGY 2024年 363卷

作者： Mardones, Cristian Alvial, Esteban Univ Concepcion Dept Ind Engn Edmundo Larenas 2194th Floor Concepcion Chile Univ Concepcion Ind Engn Concepcion Chile

This study evaluates the impact of a carbon tax on CO2 emissions in Costa Rica. For the above, a demand system is estimated using data from a household expenditure survey, which allows for obtaining the elasticities of demand for various groups of goods focused on energy. Then, the environmental extension of the Leontief price model is implemented to determine the change in prices caused by different carbon tax rates (25, 50, 75, and 100 USD/ton CO2). Subsequently, both models are linked to obtain the variations in production and sectoral emissions. In addition, a Monte Carlo simulation is carried out since the estimated price elasticities have a standard deviation associated with them. The results suggest that carbon taxes mainly affect transportation, while the rest of the sectors have slight impacts in all simulated scenarios. For example, the drop in total CO2 emissions is explained between 89.6% and 91.3% by the decrease in emissions in the passenger transport and other transport sectors with a 95% confidence interval. The previous is explained by the composition of Costa Rica's energy matrix, which has a very high share of renewable energies. Finally, some climate policy options are suggested to contribute to this country's carbon neutrality.

关键词： Carbon tax Quadratic almost ideal demand system input-output model Carbon dioxide emissions

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Fuzzy input-output model for optimizing eco-industrial supply chains under water footprint constraints

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2011年第2-3期19卷 187-196页

作者： Aviso, Kathleen B. Tan, Raymond R. Culaba, Alvin B. Cruz, Jose B., Jr. De La Salle Univ Ctr Engn & Sustainable Dev Res Manila 1004 Philippines De La Salle Univ Dept Ind Engn Manila 1004 Philippines Ohio State Univ Dept Elect & Comp Engn Columbus OH 43210 USA

Global water stress is expected to increase due to population growth, economic development and climate change. Because of this trend, there is an increased interest in the water intensity of industrial activities conducted via the product supply chain or within specified geographical boundaries or regions, both at the enterprise- or regulatory-level. The total water footprint of economic activities should be evaluated in consideration of local water resource consumption, virtual water trade and resource availability. As individual entities seek to protect their respective interests, the challenge is to optimize inter-regional trade of goods with the consideration of the interests of participants in the network. This work presents a fuzzy input output model for optimizing supply chains under water footprint constraints. Two case studies, involving tile manufacturing and biofuel production, are considered to demonstrate the use of the model. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： input-output model Fuzzy optimization Water footprint Virtual water

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A synthesis approach for output feedback robust model predictive control based-on input-output model

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JOURNAL OF PROCESS CONTROL 2014年第3期24卷 60-72页

作者： Ding, Baocang Zou, Tao Xi An Jiao Tong Univ Sch Elect & Informat Engn Xian 710049 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Shenyang Inst Automat Shenyang 110016 Peoples R China

This paper proposes a synthesis approach to output feedback robust model predictive control for a system with both polytopic description and bounded disturbance. It is not required to estimate the system state since the input-output model is directly utilized. The procedure extends the main results of Kothare et al. (1996) in specifying the system model, feedback law and closed-loop stability. By on-line implementation of the controller, the output and input of the closed-loop system will converge to a neighborhood of the equilibrium point. An example of the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the controller. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： model predictive control output feedback input-output model Uncertain systems

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A Taguchi-STIRPAT input-output model for unveiling the pathways of reducing household carbon emissions under dual-carbon target-A case study of Fujian province

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ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 2024年第10期31卷 15424-15442页

作者： Cai, Tianchao Li, Yongping Wang, Panpan Huang, Guohe Liu, Jing Xiamen Univ Technol Fujian Engn & Res Ctr Rural Sewage Treatment & Wat Sch Environm Sci & Engn Xiamen 361024 Peoples R China Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat Pollut Contr Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Univ Regina Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities Regina SK S4S 0A2 Canada

This study develops a novel Taguchi-STIRPAT input-output (TSIO) model for exploring pathways to reduce carbon emission from the perspective of household consumption, through incorporating input-output model (IOM), Taguchi design (TD), and STIRPAT model. TSIO can not only identify the main factors (carbon emission intensity, consumption structure, per capita consumption, and population) and evaluate their effects on indirect household carbon emissions (IHC), but also predict IHC from a long-term perspective to achieve the dual-carbon target. TSIO is then applied to Fujian province (China), where multiple scenarios related to multiple factors with multiple levels are examined. Results reveal that (i) among all sectors, the highest contributors to IHC are residence (RES), followed by food, cigarettes, and drinks (FCD), and transport and communication (TC);it is suggested that the government can consider market mechanism to control these high-carbon emission consumption behaviors;(ii) the decline in the share of RES consumption has the largest effect on rural and urban IHC;the share of RES consumption is considered to be a key factor in predicting carbon emissions;(iii) under the optimal scenario, IHC would peak in 2025 and decrease to 10.07 x 106 ton in 2060;this scenario can effectively mitigate household carbon emissions by reducing carbon emission intensity and the share of RES consumption;at the same time, it can ensure a sustained increase in per capita consumption. The results unveil the pathways of household carbon reduction under the dual-carbon target in Fujian province and suggest the local government should adopt policies (such as taxation and financial incentives) to limit residential consumptions with high carbon emission intensity.

关键词： Carbon emission reduction Fujian province Household carbon emissions input-output model STIRPAT model Taguchi design

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City-level household carbon footprint from purchaser point of view by a modified input-output model

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APPLIED ENERGY 2019年 236卷 379-387页

作者： Long, Yin Yoshida, Yoshikuni Fang, Kai Zhang, Haoran Dhondt, Maya Univ Tokyo Grad Sch Frontier Sci Dept Environm Syst 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha Kashiwa Chiba 2778563 Japan Zhejiang Univ Sch Publ Affairs Yuhangtang Rd 866 Hangzhou 310058 Zhejiang Peoples R China Univ Tokyo Ctr Spatial Informat Sci 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha Kashiwa Chiba 2778568 Japan China Univ Petr Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol Fuxue Rd 18 Beijing 102249 Peoples R China

Residential consumption produces carbon emissions through the combustion of primary energy (directly) as well as through the consumption of goods and services (indirectly). To capture the latter indirect emissions, it is common to use producer-price based input-output analysis associated with household monetary expenditures. However, producer-price input-output tables usually do not account for economic transactions and energy flows at the margin. To better understand household indirect emissions from the purchaser perspective, there is a need for a modified input-output modeling approach. To that end, this study attempts to measure the carbon footprint of households in the Tokyo Metropolis, Japan by integrating monthly household consumption inventories into an input-output table of Tokyo. By doing so, the carbon footprint was estimated to be 0.76 tC per household and the total estimated marginal carbon emissions for Tokyo is up to 0.56 MtC. A sectoral breakdown of the total emission coefficients is provided based on purchaser prices and temporal variations in emissions. Findings indicate that within household consumption, Clothing and Services categories contributed most to marginal emissions. The conclusions drawn in this paper are pertinent and policy relevant because they provide relatively accurate information compared to the status quo to inform appropriate policies for guiding residential consumption at the city scale of resolution.

关键词： City-scale emissions Urban households input-output model Margin-related emissions Monthly emissions Seasonal emissions

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Effect of Variation of Water-Use Efficiency on Structure of Virtual Water Trade - Analysis Based on input-output model

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WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 2015年第8期29卷 2947-2965页

作者： Deng, Guangyao Wang, Liujuan Song, Yanan Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ Sch Publ Econ & Adm Shanghai 200433 Peoples R China Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ Sch Int Business Adm Shanghai 200433 Peoples R China Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ Inst Finance & Econ Shanghai 200433 Peoples R China Univ Melbourne Shanghai 200433 Peoples R China

Using input-output table of China in 2007, this paper built an input-output model and tested the effect of variation of water-use efficiency on the structure of virtual water trade. As the final water consumption coefficient increases (i.e., water-use efficiency decreases) in some department, the proportion of this department's virtual water outflow/inflow increases while those of all the other departments decrease. As the direct water consumption coefficient increases (i.e., water-use efficiency decreases), the proportion of this department's virtual water outflow/inflow increases while the sum but not each of the other departments' proportions decreases. The final water consumption coefficient of any department is bigger than the direct one, implying indirect water consumption exists and final water consumption coefficient is a better indicator for water-use efficiency. The paper shows that China is a net exporter of virtual water, but the departments of agriculture, mining, petrochemical are the net importers of virtual water. According to the results, China should use the strategy of virtual water trade to alleviate water shortage. Also, China should adopt water-saving technology in production, and improve the level of self-sufficiency of products in order to reduce reliance on foreign trade correspondingly.

关键词： Water-use efficiency Virtual water trade input-output model Water resources management China

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