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A New interval two-stage stochastic programming with CVaR for Water Resources Management

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 2020年第12期34卷 3795-3807页

作者： Zhang, Min Xi, Kaiyan Chinese Acad Sci Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol Urumqi 830011 Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China

In area of water resources management, decision-makers usually need to make plans under various uncertainties in order to achieve the maximal total net benefits and prevent possible losses under risks arising from the indeterminacy. In this paper, we have incorporated the conditional value-at-risk, which has been widely used in portfolio selection problems for effective risk management, in the interval two-stage stochastic programming framework to perform trade-offs between economic objectives and associated risks. Moreover, based on the late progresses in Grey linear system, we have developed a new method to obtain a solution of the proposed model. In particular, this new approach can provide a number of decision alternatives under different coefficients, which help decision-makers make proper water supply plans according to their personal preferences. Finally, numerical experiments have been presented to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the proposed model for maintaining balance between profits and risks, as well as the efficiency of the new method for dealing with such model.

关键词： interval two-stage stochastic programming CVaR Water resources management Grey linear programming

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How should water resources be allocated for shale gas development? An exploratory study in China

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SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 2022年 30卷 1001-1018页

作者： Liu, Rui Wang, Jianliang Yang, Lifang Li, Nu Jin, Lei Willerstrom, Jakob China Univ Petr Sch Econ & Management Beijing 102249 Peoples R China China Univ Petr Res Ctr Chinas Oil & Gas Ind Dev Beijing 102249 Peoples R China Uppsala Univ Dept Earth Sci Villavagen 16 SE-75236 Uppsala Sweden

Water scarcity has emerged as one of the most important global challenges of the twenty-first century. With rising demand for energy, and water being a critical input in energy production, the availability of water resources has put energy sustainable production under growing strain. While unconventional natural gas (especially shale gas) is seen as an important bridge for promoting the transition of energy system from high to low carbon, water availability is a significant constraint on the development of energy resources owing to the massive quantity of water used by the hydraulic fracturing. Against this background, our study aims to optimize the allocation of regionally scarce water resources for fostering integrated economic, social, and environmental growth in shale gas development plays. In light of the uncertainty inherent in the water supply management system for shale gas development, this work employed the interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) to establish an optimal allocation model for water resources between wells jointly dispatched by surface water, underground water and reused water. The model predicted water scarcity, optimal water allocation, and the total benefit of the shale gas development water supply system under various scenarios. Furthermore, when compared to the twostage stochastic programming (TSP) model results, it was found that the ITSP model's interval value may present decision makers with more ideas and options than the TSP model. In addition, since the ITSP model is oblivious to the system risk issue, it incorporated robust optimization into the original ITSP model to build the interval two-stage Robust stochastic programming (ITRSP) model. Our findings were expressed as intervals that more accurately represent the actual optimal allocation of water resources, which also provided a broader decision-making space for decision makers in managing shale gas development water supply management schemes. (c) 2022 Institution of C

关键词： Shale gas development Water resources Water resources optimization allocation interval two-stage stochastic programming interval two-stage robust stochastic programming

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A modified CVaR-based interval coordination model for economic benefit and pollutant discharge

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JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 2024年第1期60卷 176-188页

作者： Wang, Faqiang Fu, Xiang Liu, Shuangjun Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resources Engn & Management Wuhan Peoples R China Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resource Engn & Management Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China

This paper proposes a modified conditional value-at-risk interval two-stage stochastic programming coordination model (MCITSP) for water allocation and illustrates its advantages in risk aversion and pollution control. We analyze its performance in maintaining the equity of water use in various sectors, which is specifically reflected in the water satisfaction of multiple users. In this paper, the MCITSP model and original ITSP model are applied to the case of the Hanjiang River Basin, and three scenarios of water availability are set up to provide theoretical support for water allocation. Our results show that the MCITSP model with a higher risk coefficient has a stronger ability to avoid risks. The MCITSP model simultaneously controls pollutant discharge and guarantees economic benefits, making it superior to the ITSP model under different scenarios. Water shortages primarily affect the agricultural sector, due to its high water demand and low economic value, and the MCITSP model plays a positive role in maintaining equity and coordinating water conflicts among multiple users. Managers can choose appropriate model parameters according to their preferences to formulate more reasonable decisions.

关键词： water allocation interval two-stage stochastic programming CVaR uncertainty pollution water satisfaction

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GHG-mitigation oriented and coal-consumption constrained inexact robust model for regional energy structure adjustment A case study for Jiangsu Province, China

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RENEWABLE ENERGY 2018年 123卷 549-562页

作者： Ji, Ling Zhang, Bei-Bei Huang, Guo-He Xie, Yu-Lei Niu, Dong-Xiao Beijing Univ Technol Sch Econ & Management 100 Ping Le Yuan Beijing 100124 Peoples R China Univ Regina Fac Engn Environm Syst Engn Program Regina SK S4S 0A2 Canada Univ Sci & Technol Sch Mech Engn Beijing 100083 Peoples R China North China Elect Power Univ Sch Econ & Management Beijing 102206 Peoples R China

Resources and environmental crises are involved in energy management system, confronting a larger amount of coal consumption and GHG emission during structure adjustment plan making in China. In this study, a GHG-mitigation oriented and coal-consumption constrained inexact robust energy system management model is developed for adjusting regional power structure and analyzing the effects of different policy instruments on the performance of power system. The proposed model is a hybrid methodology of interval two-stage stochastic programming and stochastic robust programming. It can handle uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distributions, and reflect the tradeoff between system costs and the tractability under different policy scenarios. The proposed model was applied to a case study of Jiangsu Province, a developed region within the total coal consumption control pilot area of China. The results revealed that ambitious carbon emission and coal consumption reduction targets would promote the utilization and development of renewable energy. Stricter carbon emission caps were shown to be more efficient than coal consumption cap policies for encouraging investment in renewable energy generation, especially wind power. If over 15% carbon emission reduction target was carried out, the recent coal consumption control policy would have little impact on the electricity system development. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Coal consumption cap Electricity generation expansion Uncertainty Robust optimization interval two-stage stochastic programming

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Optimal river basin water resources allocation considering multiple water sources joint scheduling: A bi-level multi-objective programming with copula-based interval-bistochastic information

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COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING 2024年 194卷

作者： Tu, Yan Lu, Yongzheng Xie, Yutong Lev, Benjamin Wuhan Univ Technol Sch Safety Sci & Emergency Management Wuhan 430070 Peoples R China Drexel Univ LeBow Coll Business Decis Sci Dept Philadelphia PA 19104 USA

The uncertainty of hydrological variables and socio-economic parameters presents new challenges for river basin water resources allocation (RBWRA). Motivated by the pressing need for more efficient and ecofriendly RBWRA solutions, a bi-level multi-objective interval-bistochastic programming (BLMOIBSP) model is proposed. The model aims to achieve optimal balance among efficiency, eco-friendliness and equity, collectively called "3E"in this paper. The basin authority, serving as the leader in RBWRA, prioritizes efficiency and eco-friendliness, aiming to maximize economic benefit and minimize total environmental pollutants. Conversely, the sub-areas, as followers, focus more on benefits, striving to maximize total benefits. Taking into account the needs of each stakeholder in the bi-level structure actually facilitates equity goals in RBWRA. Additionally, based on the joint scheduling of multiple water sources, the model considers dual stochastic hydrological variables and multiple uncertain parameters. The copula function captures the dependence between hydrological stochastic variables. Meanwhile, water demand is set as an interval parameter to address uncertainty, handled by an interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) method. Fusing with a chaotic Aquila Optimizer (CAO) algorithm, a bi-level interactive approach based on satisfactory degree (SD) is employed to solve the model and ensure equity in RBWRA. Furthermore, the case of the Dongjiang River Basin in Guangdong Province, China, is presented in conjunction with a multi-scenario analysis to validate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed model and its associated problem-solving methods. The results indicate that the proposed model effectively ensures the "3E"objectives of RBWRA. Besides that, ITSP has been demonstrated to reduce the risks associated with the uncertainty in actual water allocation in RBWRA. The proposed bi-level model balances the levels better than a single-level model. When s

关键词： River basin water resources allocation Multiple water sources Bi-level multi-objective programming Copula interval two-stage stochastic programming Chaotic Aquila Optimizer

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Optimal allocation of agricultural water resources under the background of China's agricultural water price reform-a case study of Heilongjiang province

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APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 2021年 97卷 636-649页

作者： Cheng, Kun Wei, Shuai Ren, Yongtai Fu, Qiang Northeast Agr Univ Coll Arts & Sci Harbin 150030 Peoples R China Northeast Agr Univ Coll Econ & Management Harbin 150030 Peoples R China Northeast Agr Univ Sch Water Conservancy & Civil Engn Harbin 150030 Peoples R China

To improve the performance of agricultural water resources and food production against a background of China's agricultural water price reform, an interval two-stage stochastic programming model is established and applied to account for impacts of agricultural water price reform and a water-saving technology subsidy in Heilongjiang Province, China. A water price affordability constraint and a water-saving technology subsidy to support uptake of water-saving irrigation technology are both introduced. Results of model runs show that when the current agricultural water price is increased to reflect national water price reform without a technology subsidy, the total income of irrigation farming is reduced by 2%-8%, with potential negative impacts on food production. However when an irrigation water-saving technology subsidy is introduced to accompany the increased water price, farm income can be protected and overall food production can be maintained. The two part mechanism of increased water price and water-saving technology subsidy can be used to encourage farmer to reduce water application rates as well as reduce land in production of high-water-consuming crops. Such a two part program offers considerable hope for protecting unsustainable use of water in water scarce regions while protecting farm income and food security in the face of unknown future water supply fluctuations. (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural water price Water resources optimal allocation interval two-stage stochastic programming Water-saving technology subsidy

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Development of an optimization-aided small modular reactor siting model-A case study of Saskatchewan, Canada

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APPLIED ENERGY 2022年 305卷 117867-117867页

作者： Liu, Yanyan Huang, Guohe Chen, Jiapei Zhang, Xiaoyue Zheng, Xiaogui Zhai, Mengyu Univ Regina Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Commun Regina SK S4S 0A2 Canada Univ Regina Fac Engn & Appl Sci Regina SK S4S 0A2 Canada Beijing Univ Technol Inst Circular Econ Beijing 100124 Peoples R China

As an emerging clean technology, the replacement of coal plants and the integration with renewable power generation are two appealing options for the deployment of SMRs in the power system. However, both these applications and SMR siting issues for power systems have multiple complexities that have been difficult to be considered in past studies. Accordingly, an optimization-aided small modular reactor siting (OASS) model is initiated in this study to support decisions of siting, sizing, and timing for small modular reactor (SMR) development. The proposed OASS model is specialized for obtaining possible SMRs siting schemes, wind-SMRs combination schemes, and power system transition schemes with coal plant closure and SMRs deployment. This research initiates the application of an optimization-based modelling approach to tackle SMRs site selection issues for Saskatchewan, Canada. The results disclose that electricity imports and natural gas power will fill the electricity demand gap in Saskatchewan's power system in the short term. Results obtained from this model can also identify optimized patterns of SMRs and wind farms deployment and siting in Saskatchewan. Power stations with large capacity and independent transmission grid will become the primary choice in the SMRs and wind farms site selection process. Such patterns and alternatives would enable decision-makers obtain optimized energy structure by introducing SMR reflecting trade-offs between overall system costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from both economic and environmental perspectives.

关键词： Small modular reactor siting Replacement of decommissioned coal-fired power plants Regional power system planning Uncertainty analysis interval two-stage stochastic programming

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An inexact modeling approach for supporting water resources allocation under natural and social complexities in a border city of China and Myanmar

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RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2021年 168卷 105245-105245页

作者： Chen, Dongni Cai, Yanpeng Wang, Xuan Li, Chunhui Yin, Xinan Liu, Qiang Beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Guangdong Univ Technol Inst Environm & Ecol Engn Guangdong Prov Key Lab Water Qual Improvement & E Guangzhou 510006 Peoples R China Univ Regina Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities Regina SK S4A 0A2 Canada

In this paper, an interval two-stage fuzzy credibility constraint programming (ITSFCCP) method is proposed to deal with multiple uncertainties that can be expressed as fuzzy sets, discrete intervals and probability distributions, which can be used for effectively reflect natural and social complexities of relevant decision-making processes. Lincang city of Yunnan province, which is located in the southwest border of China, is employed as the demonstrative case. It is a frontier window and an important channel for China to face the "radiation center" of Southeast and South Asia. Also, it is the intersection of the Tropic of Cancer and the Geographic Water Distribution Line between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The city's water resources system is particularly unique due to its connection with Myanmar. Considering multiple uncertainties and complexities of the existing water resources system in the city, ITSFCCP is developed to optimize the allocation of water resources. The objective function of the model is the maximization of economic benefits of the water resources system. Fuzzy sets, discrete intervals and probability distribution were introduced to represent the multiple uncertainties associated with the natural and social complexities. Credibility levels were adopted to solve the complexity of multi-ethnic human society in Lincang. The results showed that the model could effectively deal with the uncertainties and complexities of Lincang's water resources system, and reflect the trade-offs between the system benefits and risks.

关键词： Water resources systems interval two-stage stochastic programming Fuzzy credibility constrained programming Uncertainties and complexities Lincang city

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Planning electric power system under carbon-price mechanism considering multiple uncertainties - A case study of Tianjin

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JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2020年 269卷 110721-110721页

作者： Fu, Yupeng Huang, Guohe Xie, Yulei Liao, Renfei Yin, Jianan Univ Regina Environm Syst Engn Program Fac Engn Regina SK S4S 0A2 Canada Beijing Normal Univ UR BNU Ctr Energy Environm & Ecol Res Beijing 100875 Peoples R China Univ Sci & Technol Beijing Sch Energy & Environm Engn Beijing 100083 Peoples R China

The carbon-price mechanism has been proved to be an effective measure for promoting energy revolution and mitigating climate change. It is of vital importance to develop optimal energy development strategy for electric power-dependent regions by considering the complex interaction among carbon price, carbon emission control, and carbon-responsibility transfer. In order to fill the research gap on the optimal choice of carbon-price mechanism at the urban level, this study is the first attempt to express uncertainties embodied in the carbon price mechanism as interval values, probability distribution and downside risks. The developed risk-aversion-based interval two-stage stochastic programming (RITSP) model is effective in analyzing the effect of internal and electric-transmission related carbon-tax on power system structure. It is discovered that carbon compensation policy for imported electricity is more suitable for Tianjin's power system development. Tianjin would primarily purchase electricity from Inner-Mongolia. With the increase of carbon emission tax, Tianjin would import increasing proportion of electricity from Gansu. Due to the limited endowment of renewable energy in Tianjin, the impact of carbon emission limitations on the renewable energy power generation structure of is trivial, and it has a greater impact on stimulating the development of CCS technology. What's more, Tianjin's future power system planning is more inclined to develop CCS rather than renewable energy.

关键词： Carbon-price mechanism Carbon-emission transfer Energy system management interval two-stage stochastic programming Downside risk

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