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Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration amongst Countries in the EU/EFTA, 2002-2007

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EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE 2011年第2期27卷 185-215页

作者： Raymer, James de Beer, Joop van der Erf, Rob Univ Southampton Southampton Stat Sci Res Inst Southampton SO9 5NH Hants England Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demog Inst The Hague Netherlands

Because of inconsistencies in the reported migration flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international migration patterns in the Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration data, however, are improving. In this article, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces of incomplete information together, including a partial set of harmonised migration flows, to estimate a complete set of migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex for the 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a synthetic data base that can be used to inform population projections, policy decisions and migration theory.

关键词： International migration Europe log-linear models Combining data

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Three centuries of categorical data analysis: log-linear models and maximum likelihood estimation

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JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PLANNING AND INFERENCE 2007年第11期137卷 3430-3445页

作者： Fienberg, Stephen E. Rinaldo, Alessandro Carnegie Mellon Univ Dept Stat Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA Carnegie Mellon Univ Machine Learning Dept Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA Carnegie Mellon Univ Cylab Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

The common view of the history of contingency tables is that it begins in 1900 with the work of Pearson and Yule, but in fact it extends back at least into the 19th century. Moreover, it remains an active area of research today. In this paper we give an overview of this history focussing on the development of log-linear models and their estimation via the method of maximum likelihood. Roy played a crucial role in this development with two papers co-authored with his students, Mitra and Marvin Kastenbaum, at roughly the mid-point temporally in this development. Then we describe a problem that eluded Roy and his students, that of the implications of sampling zeros for the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for log-linear models. Understanding the problem of non-existence is crucial to the analysis of large sparse contingency tables. We introduce some relevant results from the application of algebraic geometry to the study of this statistical problem. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： algebraic statistics contingency tables chi-square tests log-linear models maximum likelihood multinomial sampling schemes sampling zeros

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loglinear representations of multivariate Bernoulli Rasch models

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BRITISH JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL & STATISTICAL PSYCHOlogY 2011年第2期64卷 337-354页

作者： Hessen, David J. Univ Utrecht Dept Methodol & Stat NL-3508 TC Utrecht Netherlands

In this paper, the extended Rasch model for dichotomously scored items is derived from the general multivariate Bernoulli distribution. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the multivariate Bernoulli distribution to be equal to the extended Rasch model provide a new loglinear representation of the extended Rasch model. Conditions are also given under which the extended Rasch model is equal to the random effects Rasch model, and it is shown under what conditions the extended Rasch model is equal to a random effects Rasch model in which the underlying variable has a normal distribution. In addition, alternative models for the construction of likelihood ratio tests are proposed. One of these alternative models is Haberman's extended interaction model. Furthermore, it is shown how both the SPSS and SAS programs can be used to estimate and test loglinear representations of extended Rasch models.

关键词： log-linear models MULTIVARIATE analysis RASCH models BINOMIAL distribution GAUSSIAN distribution MATHEMATICAL models VARIABLES (Mathematics)

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Decomposition and Model Selection for Large Contingency Tables

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BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL 2010年第2期52卷 233-252页

作者： Dahinden, Corinne Kalisch, Markus Buehlmann, Peter ETH Seminar Stat CH-8092 Zurich Switzerland ETH Competence Ctr Syst Physiol & Metab Dis CH-8093 Zurich Switzerland

Large contingency tables summarizing categorical variables arise in many areas. One example is in biology, where large numbers of biomarkers are cross-tabulated according to their discrete expression level. Interactions of the variables are of great interest and are generally studied with log linear models. The structure of a log linear model can be visually represented by a graph from which the conditional independence structure can then be easily read off. However, since the number of parameters in a saturated model grows exponentially in the number of variables, this generally comes with a heavy computational burden. Even if we restrict ourselves to models of lower-order interactions or other sparse structures, we are faced with the problem of a large number of cells which play the role of sample size. This is in sharp contrast to high-dimensional regression or classification procedures because, in addition to a high-dimensional parameter, we also have to deal with the analogue of a huge sample size. Furthermore, high-dimensional tables naturally feature a large number of sampling zeros which often leads to the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. We therefore present a decomposition approach, where we first divide the problem into several lower-dimensional problems and then combine these to form a global solution. Our methodology is computationally feasible for log linear interaction models with many categorical variables each or some of them having many levels. We demonstrate the proposed method on simulated data and apply it to a bio-medical problem in cancer research.

关键词： Categorical data Graphical model Group lasso log-linear models Sparse contingency tables

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The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

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POPULATION ECOlogY 2010年第2期52卷 263-270页

作者： Micchi de Barros Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Manly, Bryan Verdade, Luciano Martins Univ Sao Paulo Luiz de Queiroz Coll Agr ESALQ Dept Forest Sci Quantitat Methods Lab Piracicaba Brazil Western EcoSyst Technol Inc Cheyenne WY USA Univ Sao Paulo Luiz de Queiroz Coll Agr ESALQ Dept Biol Sci Anim Ecol Lab Piracicaba Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.

关键词： Agroecosystem Herbivore log-linear models Monitoring Observer error

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Unified generalized iterative scaling and its applications

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COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS 2010年第4期54卷 1066-1078页

作者： Gao, Wei Shi, Ning-Zhong Tang, Man-Lai Fu, Lianyan Tian, Guoliang NE Normal Univ Sch Math & Stat Key Lab Appl Stat MOE Changchun 130024 Peoples R China Hong Kong Baptist Univ Dept Math Kowloon Tong Hong Kong Peoples R China Univ Hong Kong Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China

Generalized iterative scaling (GIS) has become a popular method for getting the maximum likelihood estimates for log-linear models. It is basically a sequence of successive I-projections onto sets of probability vectors with some given linear combinations of probability vectors. However, when a sequence of successive I-projections are applied onto some closed and convex sets (e.g., marginal stochastic order), they may not lead to the actual solution. In this manuscript, we present a unified generalized iterative scaling (UGIS) and the convergence of this algorithm to the optimal solution is shown. The relationship between the UGIS and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation for log-linear models is established. Applications to constrained Poisson regression modeling and marginal stochastic order are used to demonstrate the proposed UGIS. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： ITERATIVE methods (Mathematics) MAXIMUM likelihood statistics ESTIMATION theory log-linear models METRIC projections CONVEX sets STOCHASTIC orders

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Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

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QUALITY & QUANTITY 2010年第1期44卷 115-129页

作者： Pavlopoulos, Dimitris Muffels, Ruud Vermunt, Jeroen K. CEPS INSTEAD L-4501 Differdange Luxembourg Tilburg Univ Dept Sociol NL-5000 LE Tilburg Netherlands Tilburg Univ Dept Methodol & Stat NL-5000 LE Tilburg Netherlands

The paper investigates cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. We examine the impact of specific wage-setting institutions, such as the collective bargaining and the trade union density, the employment protection regulation and the welfare state regime on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear approach that is very much similar to a restricted multinomial logit model and much more flexible than the standard probit approach that is typically applied in the research on wage mobility. It is shown that the macro-economic context and the aforementioned specific institutions explain a substantial part of the cross-country variation that is larger than the part that regime type explains. The findings also confirm the existence of an inverse U-shape pattern of wage mobility, showing a great deal of low-wage and high-wage persistence in all countries.

关键词： Wage mobility Welfare states Multinomial logit regression log-linear models

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Disaggregated spatial modelling for areal unit categorical data

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JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS 2010年第1期59卷 175-190页

作者： Tassone, Eric C. Miranda, Marie Lynn Gelfand, Alan E. Duke Univ Childrens Environm Hlth Initiat Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci Durham NC 27708 USA

We consider joint spatial modelling of areal multivariate categorical data assuming a multiway contingency table for the variables, modelled by using a log-linear model, and connected across units by using spatial random effects. With no distinction regarding whether variables are response or explanatory, we do not limit inference to conditional probabilities, as in customary spatial logistic regression. With joint probabilities we can calculate arbitrary marginal and conditional probabilities without having to refit models to investigate different hypotheses. Flexible aggregation allows us to investigate subgroups of interest;flexible conditioning enables not only the study of outcomes given risk factors but also retrospective study of risk factors given outcomes. A benefit of joint spatial modelling is the opportunity to reveal disparities in health in a richer fashion, e.g. across space for any particular group of cells, across groups of cells at a particular location, and, hence, potential space-group interaction. We illustrate with an analysis of birth records for the state of North Carolina and compare with spatial logistic regression.

关键词： Conditionally auto-regressive models Disease mapping Health disparities Hierarchical models log-linear models Multilevel models Spatial random effects

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Combining available migration data in England to study economic activity flows over time

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JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY 2010年第4期173卷 733-753页

作者： Smith, Peter W. F. Raymer, James Giulietti, Corrado Univ Southampton Southampton Stat Sci Res Inst Sch Social Sci Southampton SO17 1BJ Hants England

Information about internal migration in England may come from decennial censuses, surveys or population (health) registers. We propose a methodology that allows us to combine aspects from multiple sources of data to provide a time series of detailed migration flows. By detailed, we refer to a migration flow table cross-classified by origin, destination, age, sex and economic activity (e.g. employees, retirees or students). Our results can be used to analyse the movements of various population groups between counties in England over time.

关键词： Combining data Economic activity England Internal migration log-linear models

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Mitochondrial genomic divergence in coelacanths (Latimeria): slow rate of evolution or recent speciation?

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MARINE BIOlogY 2010年第10期157卷 2253-2262页

作者： Sudarto Lalu, Xandramaya C. Kosen, Janny D. Tjakrawidjaja, Agus H. Kusumah, Ruby Vidia Sadhotomo, Bambang Kadarusman Pouyaud, Laurent Slembrouck, Jacques Paradis, Emmanuel Loka Riset Budidaya Ikan Hias Air Tawar Pancoranmas Depok 16436 Jawa Barat Indonesia Sulawesi Utara Dinas Kelautan Dan Perikanan Komp Pertanian Kalasey 5013 Manado Indonesia Sam Ratulangi Univ Ctr Res Coastal Management Small Isl & Pacific Af Manado North Sulawesi Indonesia Indonesian Inst Sci LIPI Biol Res Ctr Div Zool Bogor 16911 Indonesia Bogor Agr Univ IPB Fac Fisheries & Marine Sci Bogor Jawa Barat Indonesia BRKP DKP Pusat Riset Perikanan Tangkap Jl Pasir Putih Ancol Jakarta U Indonesia Akad Perikanan Sorong APSOR BPSDM KP Kota Sorong Papua Barat Indonesia Inst Rech Dev CAVIAR UR175 GAMET F-34196 Montpellier 5 France Inst Rech Dev Jakarta 12730 Indonesia

Dating the divergence between the two known living species of coelacanths has remained a difficult issue because of the very ancient origin of this lineage of fish, which is more closely related to tetrapods than to other fishes. We sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of a recently captured individual of the Indonesian coelacanth in order to solve this issue. Using an approach based on loglinear models, we studied the molecular divergence between the two species of coelacanths and three other pairs of species, one that has diverged recently (Pan) and two that have diverged more distantly in the past. The loglinear models showed that the divergence between the two species of coelacanths is not significantly different from the two species of Pan. A detailed gene by gene analysis of the patterns of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions between these two pairs of species further supports the similarity of these divergences. On the other hand, a molecular dating analysis suggested a much older origin of the two coelacanth species (between 20 and 30 million years ago). We discuss the potential reasons for this discrepancy. The analysis of new individuals of the Indonesian coelacanth will certainly help to solve this issue.

关键词： DIVERGENCE (Biology) RESEARCH COELACANTHIFORMES ANIMAL species GENOMES log-linear models GENES AMINO acids NUCLEOTIDES

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