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Quantitative relationship between climatic conditions and the conception rate of Japanese Black cattle in commercial cow-calf operations

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LIVESTOCK SCIENCE 2019年 228卷 170-176页

作者： Erina, Kino Mizuho, Uematsu Go, Kitahara Takeshi, Osawa Yosuke, Sasaki Univ Miyazaki Fac Agr Dept Anim & Grassland Sci 1-1 Gakuen Kibanadai Nishi Miyazaki 8892192 Japan Miyazaki Agr Mutual Aid Assoc Miyazaki Japan Univ Miyazaki Fac Agr Dept Vet Sci Miyazaki Japan Univ Miyazaki Ctr Anim Dis Control Miyazaki Japan

Heat stress has a major effect on mammalian reproductive function. To clarify the relationship between heat stress and reproduction, it is important to investigate the quantitative relationship between the conception rate (CR) of beef cattle and climatic conditions. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the quantitative relationship between the CR of beef cattle and climatic conditions, as measured by the maximum temperature (MAX) and the temperature-humidity index (THI), in commercial cow-calf operations. Data were collected from 10,599 farms in Miyazaki, Japan, including records for 131,837 services of 79,265 heifers and 821,807 services of 147,464 cows between January 2005 and December 2014. Climate data in the vicinity of the farms were collected from the Japan Meteorological Agency. THI was calculated as 0.8 x meanT + (meanRH/100) x (meanT - 14.4) + 46.4;where T was the temperature, and RH was the relative humidity. The observational unit was an artificial insemination (AI) record, and the dependent variable was conception (1 or 0). Climatic conditions were calculated aS the average value during the 21 days prior to the Al date, and each climatic condition was separately entered into the model for analysis. The mean CR in heifers was 57.4%. The CR in heifers was associated with climatic conditions (MAX and THI) and the AI number (P < 0.05), but not with the age at first AI. There were no interactions between factors regarding the CR of heifers. The CR of heifers increased with increasing MAX (odds ratio, 1.002) and THI (odds ratio, 1.001). The mean CR in cows was 54.9%. In a model using the MAX, the CR was associated with the MAX, parity, interval from calving to first AI, and AI number (P < 0.05). Significant interactions were found between the MAX and the interval from calving to first AI, and between the quadratic effect of MAX and the AI number. In a model using the THI, the CR was associated with the THI, parity, interval from calving to first

关键词： Cold stress Conception rate Cows logistic regression model Temperature

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Performance analysis of urban drivers encountering pedestrian

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART F-TRAFFIC PSYCHOLOGY AND BEHAVIOUR 2019年第Apr.期62卷 160-174页

作者： Sheykhfard, Abbas Haghighi, Farshidreza Babol Noshirvani Univ Technol Dept Civil Engn Shariati AvePOB *** Babol Sar Iran

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Iran is one of the countries with the highest rates of road deaths in the world. About 18,000 people die every year in road accidents in Iran, where about 22 percent of the dead are pedestrians. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the effective factors on performance of drivers during interaction with pedestrians. Therefore, the Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) of behaviour of 66 participants (29 males and 27 females, 18-65 years old) has been evaluated in Babol city, Mazandaran province, during 2014-2016. The behavioral studies of the participants were conducted in 216 cases of vehicle-pedestrian interaction in divided road and 485 cases in undivided road through video-recorded process. The results showed that vehicle speed and distance to pedestrians are the most important factors affecting the occurrence of vehicle-pedestrian interaction in both sites. Moreover, the results show that on the divided road, Running when crossing the street by pedestrians, as well as listening to the music by drivers, increases the possibility of interaction. Also, on the undivided road, the attention to the traffic flow of road before crossing by pedestrians, as well as crossing the street in a group increase the probability of driver's performance. Drivers responded to pedestrian crossing the street by some performances such as decreasing speed, changing the line, stop and acceleration collision. Finally, the probabilistic models of driver performance as well as the type of performances based on the variables affecting the behavior of drivers are determined using the binary logit model and multinomial logit model, respectively. Further model validation and transferability were checked and it has been observed that the driver performance and types of performance models developed in this study represents quite well. The inference of these models will be useful to assess Drivers' behavioral models and suggest automotive

关键词： Driver performance Naturalistic driving study Vehicle-pedestrian interaction Driver behavior logistic regression model

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Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019年第PT 1期650卷 661-670页

作者： Wang, Tianye Wu, Tonghua Wang, Ping Li, Ren Xie, Changwei Zou, Defu Chinese Acad Sci Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Beijing 100101 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Cryosphere Res Stn Qinghai Tibet Plateau State Key Lab Cryospher Sci Lanzhou 730000 Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where is underlain by the highest and most extensive mid-altitude permafrost, is undergoing more dramatic climatic warming than its surrounding regions. Mapping the distribution of permafrost is of great importance to assess the impacts of permafrost changes on the regional climate system. In this study, we applied logistic regression model (LRM) andmulti-criteria analysis (MCA) methods to map the decadal permafrost distribution on the QTP and to assess permafrost dynamics from the 1980s to 2000s. The occurrence of permafrost and its impacting factors (i.e., climatic and topographic elements) were constructed from in-situ field investigation-derived permafrost distribution patterns in 4 selected study regions. The validation results indicate that both LRM and MCA could efficiently map the permafrost distribution on the QTP. The areas of permafrost simulated by LRM and MCA are 1.23 x 10(6) km(2) and 1.20 x 10(6) km(2), respectively, between 2008 and 2012. The LRM and MCA modeling results revealed that permafrost area has significantly decreased at a rate of 0.066 x 10(6) km(2) decade(-1) over the past 30 years, and the decrease of permafrost area is accelerating. The sensitivity test results indicated that LRM did well in identifying the spatial distribution of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, and MCA did well in reflecting permafrost dynamics. More parameters such as vegetation, soil property, and soil moisture are suggested to be integrated into the models to enhance the performance of both models. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.

关键词： Permafrost distribution Permafrost changes Qinghai-Tibet Plateau logistic regression model Multi-criteria analysis

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A Comparative Analysis of Forest Fire Risk Zone Mapping Methods with Expert Knowledge

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JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF REMOTE SENSING 2019年第12期47卷 2047-2060页

作者： Yathish, H. Athira, K., V Preethi, K. Pruthviraj, U. Shetty, Amba Natl Inst Technol Karnataka Surathkal Karnataka India

Despite repeated occurrences of forest fire, very less scientific studies have been reported in the Indian context especially in Kudremukh region to mitigate and suppress the fire. The objective of this article was to pool the expert knowledge on forest fire triggering factors from officials working in wildlife division in the Western Ghats of India through a questionnaire and to validate the risk zones obtained from three popular fire risk zone mapping methods namely logistic regression, multi-criteria decision analysis, and weighted overlay. Based on the earlier studies and expert knowledge, fire ignition parameters considered are elevation, slope, and aspect, proximity to roads, water bodies and area of human activities, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), and vegetation type. The regression model was based on previous fire occurrences and the other two based on expert's opinion. The three models were validated and compared using past fire occurrence events. The logistic regression model gave 88.89% of accuracy and that of multi-criteria decision analysis with 74.6% accuracy, and that of weighted overlay method with an accuracy of 68.24% for the specific study area. The logistic regression model is useful in the presence of historical data, whereas expert knowledge is helpful for mapping risk zones using multi-criteria decision analysis and weighted overlay analysis when historical data are scarce or not available for mapping risk zones. The obtained risk maps can be used for deciding watchtower locations, installation of sensors, cameras, etc. In every forest division, it is recommended to prepare a standard questionnaire form and document their experiences on forest fire in the region under their supervision before they are getting transferred to another location.

关键词： Fire ignition parameters Forest fire risk zones logistic regression model Multi-criteria decision analysis Weighted overlay analysis

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Automation of On-Line Quality Control of Laminated Glass

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GLASS AND CERAMICS 2019年第5-6期76卷 201-202页

作者： Makarov, R., I Khorosheva, E. R. AG & NG Stoletov Vladimir State Univ Vladimir Russia

Statistical quality control of laminated windshields during bending was performed. Parameter deviations of the articles from technical specifications were uncovered. A logistic regression model was constructed to determine the probability of obtaining high-quality laminated automobile glass as a function of the bending regime. It was shown that logistic regression is effective for on-line inspection of laminated windshields and in making decisions concerning bending regime adjustments.

关键词： laminated windshield inspection logistic regression model

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An overview of exiting contours for promoting different strategies for livelihood security in Sikkim Himalaya

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CURRENT RESEARCH IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 2021年 3卷

作者： Kumar, Pawan Rai, Suresh Chand Univ Delhi Delhi Sch Econ Dept Geog Delhi 110007 India

Agriculture is the mainstay of the majority of the rural population of Sikkim. Dueto adverse geographical location and difficult terrain, the prospect of expansion of area under cultivation is limited. Only 11% of land is under agriculture on which more than 60% of the total population depends on it for their livelihood. The basic livelihood problems in Sik-kim is manifested in the high incidence of poverty in the state. It is particularly intriguing that poverty in the state co-exists with relatively rapid economic growth and a high level of per capita income. This paper aims to investigate the existing contours for promoting different strategies for livelihood security and factors which affect such livelihood strategies choices. A systematic, multistage stratified random sampling design was adopted to conduct a survey, and responses of 300 farming households and were documented in terms of a pre-tested structured questionnaire designed for the purpose. The data so obtained is categorized into agriculture, non-agriculture, and both. The logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression model are used to fulfill this objective. The study shows that livelihood strategy choices depend upon landholding, age, education, and distance from the market/headquarters, which may enlighten the policymakers and stakeholders in fine-tuning their designs and applications.

关键词： Livelihood Food crops Sustainability logistic regression model And multinomial logistic regression

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Effects of Lactic Acid and Salt on Enterotoxin A Production and Growth of Staphylococcus aureus

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JOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE 2019年第11期84卷 3233-3240页

作者： Elahi, Shaheem Fujikawa, Hiroshi Gifu Univ United Grad Sch Vet Sci Yanagi Japan Tokyo Univ Agr & Technol Fac Agr Lab Vet Publ Hlth 3-5-8 Saiwai Cho Fuchu Tokyo 1838509 Japan

Food poisoning caused by Staphylococcus aureus is responsible for staphylococcal enterotoxin (SE) produced in foods. Staphylococcal food poisoning is mostly caused by staphylococcal enterotoxin type A (SEA) among SEs. Growth/no growth for S. aureus under various environmental conditions was well studied with a logistic regression model so far. Recently we successfully described the boundaries of SEA production and growth of S. aureus in broth at various temperatures and salt concentrations with the model. In this study, the effects of lactic acid and salt on SEA production and growth of S. aureus was quantitatively studied. Consequently the boundaries of SEA production and growth of S. aureus cocktail in broth at various combinations of salt concentrations and pH values that were adjusted with lactic acid were successfully described with a logistic regression model. Here the cocktail was incubated in stationary culture at 30 degrees C and 10 degrees C. The maximum toxin production and cell growth of the cocktail were observed both at 5% salt in the pH range from 4.5 to 7.0. Also, the characteristics of individual strains of the cocktail in SEA production and growth at 30 degrees C and 10 degrees C were found to be specific to the strains. The present study revealed the effect of lactic acid and salt on SEA production and growth of S. aureus as well as the variety of SEA production and growth of S. aureus strains. These results would become useful information in food industry to prevent staphylococcal food poisoning. Practical Application Boundaries of enterotoxin A production/no production and growth/no growth of staphylococcal cocktail at various combinations of pHs adjusted with lactic acid and salt concentrations were well described with a logistic regression model. The maximum toxin production and cell growth were observed both at 5% salt in the pH range from 4.5 to 7.0. A variety of the toxin production and cell growth were observed in terms of pH and salt conc

关键词： lactic acid logistic regression model growth staphylococcal enterotoxin production Staphylococcus aureus

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Predictive modeling for U and Th concentrations in mineral and thermal waters, Serbia

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ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 2020年第19期79卷 456-456页

作者： Durovic, Marina Cuk Jemcov, Igor Todorovic, Maja Mladenovic, Ana Papic, Petar Strbacki, Jana Univ Belgrade Fac Min & Geol Belgrade Serbia

The objective of this paper was to determine background values (BV) and anomalous values (AV) of U and Th in groundwater and to establish hydrogeochemical conditions which lead to the elevated concentrations of these elements in groundwater. The methodology included planning and collecting of water samples, laboratory work, and assessment of BV and AV concentrations in accordance with the dataset distribution, based on consideration of hydrogeochemical conditions in the hydrogeological system. Groundwater sampling included 144 occurrences of mineral and thermal water from Serbian territory, belonging to different hydrogeological systems. Field parameters were measured for temperature (T), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), and carbon dioxide (CO2). Standard laboratory measurements were applied for the determination of major chemical components (Ca, Mg, Na, K, Cl, HCO3, and SO4) and U and Th concentrations were measured by ICP-MS. The first step for obtaining U and Th threshold values was based on non-parametric statistical analysis on the data sets. Further analysis of threshold values enabled establishing hydrogeochemical conditions influencing elevated concentrations of U and Th and setting up the logistic regression (LR) model. Differences in the hydrochemical properties of U and Th can be observed based on predictor variables from LR models. Physico-chemical parameters Eh and pH, groundwater type, and geochemical environment (cretaceous igneous rocks) were significant predictors for elevated uranium concentrations, while significant predictors in the thorium LR model were the pH value, the concentration of SO4 in the solution, and the water-bearing rocks (tertiary igneous rocks).

关键词： Radioactive elements Groundwater Hydrogeological system Non-parametric statistical analysis logistic regression model

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Geographic Distribution of Desert Locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensing Data

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REMOTE SENSING 2020年第21期12卷 3593页

作者： Chen, Chaoliang Qian, Jing Chen, Xi Hu, Zengyun Sun, Jiayu Wei, Shujie Xu, Kaibin Chinese Acad Sci Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol Urumqi 830011 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia Urumqi 830011 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Shenzhen Inst Adv Technol Shenzhen 518055 Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China Key Lab GIS & RS Applicat Xinjiang Uygur Autonomo Urumqi 830011 Peoples R China

In history, every occurrence of a desert locust plague has brought a devastating blow to local agriculture. Analyses of the potential geographic distribution and migration paths of desert locusts can be used to better monitor and provide early warnings about desert locust outbreaks. By using environmental data from multiple remote-sensing data sources, we simulate the potential habitats of desert locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe in this study using a logistic regression model that was developed based on desert locust monitoring records. The logistic regression model showed high accuracy, with an average training area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.84 and a kappa coefficient of 0.75. Our analysis indicated that the temperature and leaf area index (LAI) play important roles in shaping the spatial distribution of desert locusts. A model analysis based on data for six environmental variables over the past 15 years predicted that the potential habitats of desert locust present a periodic movement pattern between 40 degrees N and 30 degrees S latitude. The area of the potential desert locust habitat reached a maximum in July, with a suitable area exceeding 2.77 x 10(7) km(2) and located entirely between 0 degrees N and 40 degrees N in Asia-Europe and Africa. In December, the potential distribution of desert locusts reached its minimum area at 0.68 x 10(7) km(2) and was located between 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S in Asia and Africa. According to the model estimates, desert locust-prone areas are distributed in northern Ethiopia, South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, the southern Arabian Peninsula, the border area between India and Pakistan, and the southern Indian Peninsula. In addition, desert locusts were predicted to migrate from east to west between these areas and in Africa between 10 degrees N and 17 degrees N. Countries in these areas should closely monitor desert locust populations and respond rapidly.

关键词： potential geographic distribution logistic regression model desert locust migration path analysis

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logistic regression analysis of the related factors in discarded semen of boars in Southern China

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THERIOGENOLOGY 2019年 131卷 47-51页

作者： Wang, Chao Guo, Liang-Liang Wei, Hong-Kui Zhou, Yuan-Fei Tan, Jia-Jian Sun, Hai-Qing Jiang, Si-Wen Peng, Jian Huazhong Agr Univ Dept Anim Nutr & Feed Sci Coll Anim Sci & Technol Wuhan 430070 Hubei Peoples R China YangXiang Joint Stock Co Guigang 537000 Peoples R China Huazhong Agr Univ Key Lab Agr Anim Genet Breeding & Reprod Minist Educ Wuhan 430070 Hubei Peoples R China Huazhong Agr Univ Key Lab Swine Genet & Breeding Minist Agr Wuhan 430070 Hubei Peoples R China Cooperat Innovat Ctr Sustainable Pig Prod Wuhan 430070 Hubei Peoples R China

This study aimed to investigate factors affecting the discarded semen of boars. A total of 176,368 ejaculates of boars from nine Al centers were collected from January 2013 to May 2016 in Southern China. The criteria for determining whether their semen was abnormal included cytoplasmic droplets, coiling tail, sperm agglutination, impurity, poor motility, oligozoospermia, necrozoospermia, azoospermia, and hemospermia. The cause of discarded semen was evaluated with a Chi-square test, and the effects of housing type, breed, age at collection, season identified in the northern hemisphere, and age at herd entry of the discarded semen of boars were analyzed with a logistic regression model. Results indicated the proportion of the discarded semen (PDS) in the nine Al centers was 13.09%. Chi-square test showed the greatest PDS among all causes was found in semen discarded due to cytoplasmic droplets (31.60%), followed by impurity (25.96%), sperm agglutination (20.31%), coiling tail (17.72%), oligozoospermia (10.86%), and others (6.78%;P < 0.0001). logistic regression analysis revealed the PDS was affected by all these five factors (P < 0.0001). The PDS of boars raised individually in stalls was greater than that of boars raised individually in pens (OR: 1.657;95% CI: 1.607 to 1.709). The PDSs of Duroc boars (OR: 1.130;95% CI: 1.093 to 1.167) and Yorkshire boars (OR: 1.432;95% CI: 1.380 to 1.486) were greater than that of Landrace boars. The PDSs of adult boars (aged from 13 to 24 mo, from 25 to 36 mo, and more than 37 mo with OR: 0.800, 0.941, and 0.838, respectively;95% CI: 0.771 to 0.831, 0.902 to 0.983, and 0.790 to 0.889, respectively) were lower than those of young boars (aged less than 12 mo). The PDSs of semen collected in summer (OR: 1.367;95% CI: 1.314 to 1.422), autumn (OR: 1.185;95% CI: 1.138 to 1.234), and winter (OR: 1.159;95% CI: 1.115 to 1.206) were greater than those of semen obtained in spring. The PDSs of boars introduced at ages of 5-7 mo (OR: 1.432;95%

关键词： Boar Discarded semen logistic regression model Influencing factor

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