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作者： Hangwelani Tshilidzi Mathagu UNIVERSITY OF LIMPOPO

学位级别：硕士

The study focused on the market participation of the smallholder sunflower farmers of Sekhukhune District in Limpopo Province of South Africa. A total of 100 smallholder sunflower farmers of Sekhukhune were randomly selected for the study. Data was gathered through the use of structured questionnaires with open-ended questions. The data was analysed using the logistic regression model on SPSS 26.0 (statistical package for social sciences). The probability of the smallholder sunflower farmers participating in markets was determined significantly by gender of household head, farm size, level of education, marketing experience, distance to the market, ownership of vehicle and stakeholder availability. Recommendations were made with regard to that of training, monitoring, funding, Government support, access to production land and the involvement of organizations with the smallholder sunflower farmers. Training should be provided for the smallholder sunflower farmers because farmers are always faced with new technology and market changes, there should be a budget that is put aside for the funding of the smallholder farmers, monitoring programs should be implemented in order to monitor the progress of the smallholder farmers, increased access to production land for farming, government support through financial and input support, smallholder farmers should get involved with organizations that can help them with training and funding, and the government should implement policies that are commodity based.

关键词： smallholder farmers market participation logistic regression model sunflower Limpopo province

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Evaluation of vct utilization by women in Kenya using the logistic regression model

Evaluation of vct utilization by women in Kenya using the lo...

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作者： Obayo, Eunice University of Nairobi

HIV/AIDS pandemic is a global crisis with consequences that will be felt for decades to come. It has already claimed more than 25 million lives and another 40 million people are currently estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS worldwide. Women account for half of the people living with HIV/AIDS worldwide and nearly 60% of HIV infections in Sub-Saharan Africa. VeT has been described as a high-leverage intervention for HIV/AIDS prevention in sub-Saharan Africa because of its demonstrated effectiveness. This is, however, restricted to few areas making it inaccessible to various individuals who may want to be tested. This study sought to establish the trend in uptake of VCT and establish factors associated with the utilization of VCT Data was extracted from KDHS data collected for the years 2003 and 2008. Using SPSS version 15.0 and 17.0, several variables were cross tabulated against the constant variable ever been tested for HIV and Chi square used to detect differences in categorical variables between or among groups. To test if there was a significant difference in the two years, the t value of the proportions was calculated and compared with the t tab. logistic regression analysis with stepwise elimination was used to determine factors that had statistical significant association with the outcome ever been tested. Factors included in the analysis were age, marital status, wealth index, region, residence, highest education level, religion, currently/formerly/never married, number of unions, husband lives in house, ever been married and number of other wives. The outcome of this study revealed a significant association between VCT utilization and various factors. These included age, marital status, wealth index, residence, region, religion, highest education level and husband lives in house. VCT uptake was greater in 2008 compared to 2003.

关键词： Evaluation Vct utilization Women logistic regression model Thesis

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The Analysis of Performance of Total Amount Reduction of Pollutants Emission Based on logistic regression model

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Procedia Environmental Sciences 2010年 2卷 1662-1668页

作者： Wang Chunmei Sun Dezhi Wang Zhen Lin zhaolan College of Environmental Science and Engineering Beijing Forestry University Beijing 100083 China

Environmental policy is one of the main tools of environmental management for the government, it is very important for performance evaluation. This study is quantitative analysis for the relationship between the various types of environmental policies and the performance of total COD in wastewater emission volumes reducing, to obtain the role of pollution reduction from the support of policy. Based on the results of logistic model analysis, 5 reduction measures significantly affected the performance in three types of emission reduction targets. Among them, shutting down and relocate the number of enterprises have the greatest contribution to the emission reduction performance, and it followed by the sewage treatment rate, the removing of COD by the new wastewater treatment facilities, the number of projects completed under deadline management, the proportion of secondary industry. The frame measures are very effective and eliminating trailed productivity is the highest efficiency measure in all pollution control measures. Sewage treatment measures in this area also played a key role in pollution reduction; the sewage charging policy plays a key role in economic management. The adjustment of economic structure is concerned with pollution reduction. The more proportion of secondary industry covers, the more difficulty emission reducing is. Therefore, the government should pay more attention on the adjustment of industrial structure and strengthen the sewage treatment capacity to improve the performance of total amount reduction of pollutants emission.

关键词： logistic regression model Total Amount Reduction of Pollutants Emission Analysis of performance

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Analysis of Factors Contributing to Hit-and-Run Crashes Involved with Improper Driving Behaviors

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Procedia Engineering 2016年 137卷 554-562页

作者： Bei Zhou Arash M. Roshandeh Shengrui Zhang Zhuanglin Ma Shcool of Highway Chang’an University South 2nd Ring Road Xi’an 710064 China Traffic Control Center at City of Alpharetta 1790 Hembree Road Alpharetta GA 30009 USA

Hit-and-run crashes are accidents where drivers of striking vehicles fail to stop after crashes. Without helping victims or reporting accidents to associated authorities could increase the likelihood of serious injuries and even fatalities. In order to reduce hit-and-run crashes, it is important to understand factors contributing to decisions of fleeing crash scenes. In current study, various factors which could affect occurrences of hit-and-run crashes were thoroughly investigated against six different improper driving behaviors. logistic regression models were established to facilitate the analysis. Police-reported crash data within Cook County, Illinois, USA between 2004 and 2012 were used in this study. The results showed that variables contributing to hit-and-run crashes varied for different improper driving behaviors. Among six established models, “following too closely” and “distraction by phone” models had most statistically significant variables. This study also concluded that following variables would increase the likelihood of hit-and-run crashes in at least one model: multiple vehicle crash, weekend, population of 2,500 – 5,000, population of 5,000 – 10,000, national highway system, traffic signal, yield sign, shoulder, darkness, and less than three lanes. The results of current study could offer important insights for reducing hit-and-run crashes in both planning and operational levels.

关键词： hit-and-run logistic regression model odds ratio traffic safety improper driving behaviors

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Improving Disease Prevalence Estimates Using Missing Data Techniques

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第6期6卷 1110-1122页

作者： Elhadji Moustapha Seck Ngesa Owino Oscar Abdou Ka Diongue Pan African University Institute for Basic Sciences Technology and Innovation (PAUISTI) Nairobi Kenya Taita Taveta University Taita Taveta Kenya Universite Gaston Berger de Saint Louis Saint Louis Senegal

The prevalence of a disease in a population is defined as the proportion of people who are infected. Selection bias in disease prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with disease status. Missing data are commonly encountered in most medical research. Unfortunately, they are often neglected or not properly handled during analytic procedures, and this may substantially bias the results of the study, reduce the study power, and lead to invalid conclusions. The goal of this study is to illustrate how to estimate prevalence in the presence of missing data. We consider a case where the variable of interest (response variable) is binary and some of the observations are missing and assume that all the covariates are fully observed. In most cases, the statistic of interest, when faced with binary data is the prevalence. We develop a two stage approach to improve the prevalence estimates;in the first stage, we use the logistic regression model to predict the missing binary observations and then in the second stage we recalculate the prevalence using the observed data and the imputed missing data. Such a model would be of great interest in research studies involving HIV/AIDS in which people usually refuse to donate blood for testing yet they are willing to provide other covariates. The prevalence estimation method is illustrated using simulated data and applied to HIV/AIDS data from the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey, 2007.

关键词： Disease Prevalence Missing Data Non-Participant logistic regression model Prevalence Estimates HIV/AIDS

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Restraint Usage Characteristics and Other Factors Associated with Safety of Children Involved in Motor Vehicle Crashes

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2016年第1期10卷 81-95页

作者： Sunanda Dissanayake Niranga Amarasingha Department of Civil Engineering Kansas State University Manhattan KS 66506 USA Department of Civil Engineering Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology Malabe Sri Lanka

Involvement in road traffic crashes as vehicle occupants is a leading cause of death and serious injury among children. The objective of this study was to investigate crash severity factors and child safety restraint use characteristics in order to identify effective countermeasures to increase children＇s highway safety. Characteristics and percentages of restraint use among child passengers aged 4-13 years were examined using highway crash data from Kansas. The association between restraint use, injury severity and characteristics of children involved in crashes were investigated using OR （odds ratios） and a logistic regression model, which was used to identify risk factors. Results showed that children, who were unrestrained, were seated in the front seat, traveling with drunk drivers and on rural roads, and traveling during nighttime was more vulnerable to severe injury in the case of motor vehicle crashes. The most frequent contributing causes related to crashes involving children included driver＇s inattention while driving, failure to yield right-of-way, driving too fast, wet roads and animals in the road. Based on identified critical factors, general countermeasure ideas to improve children＇s traffic safety were suggested, including age-appropriate and size-appropriate seat belt restraints and having children seated in the rear seat. Parents and children must gain better education regarding these safety measures in order to increase child safety on the road.

关键词： Child safety child restraint use severity model logistic regression model crash data analysis.

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Défaillance et politique d’entreprises : modélisation financière déployée sous un modèle logistique appliqué aux PME marocaines

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La Revue Gestion et Organisation 2016年第1期8卷 53-64页

作者： Soufiane Kherrazi Khalifa Ahsina Faculté de droit d’économie et de gestion université d’Angers 49036 Angers France École nationale de commerce et de gestion université Ibn-Tofail BP 2010 14000 Kénitra Maroc

Business failure is unquestionably one of the most important issues in the field of business management. In fact, Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) play an important economic role in many countries, especially in developing countries. In Morocco for example, small firms account for over 90% of all Moroccan companies, provide around 50% of employment and a significant share of value added and GDP comes from the SME sector. But despite their significance, most of them are faced with the threat of failure, and there is a limited number of empirical studies about the business failure in the Moroccan context like many developing countries. This is why we aim, in this paper, to contribute to a better understanding of the determinants of corporate failure by using the binomial logistic regression model. Our purpose is to explain and explicate a methodology that can be applied to explain business failures by determining their -internal- causes. Our empirical results appear to support the claim that it is mainly the lack of strategic vision and managerial knowledge and culture among SME managers that causes such failures.

关键词： Business failure Failure of SMEs logistic regression model Gharb Chrarda Beni Hssen Kenitra province

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Analysis on the Influence Factors of Green Fruit Purchasing by Tangshan Consumers

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Advance Journal of Food Science and Technology 2016年第4期12卷 209-211页

作者： Li-Hui Zhou Xiao-Wen Dong College of Sciences North China University of Science and Technology North China University of Science and Technology Tangshan 063009 China

The purpose of this study was to study the factors Tangshan consumer buying behavior of green fruit. In this study, we investigate the behavior that consumers purchase green fruit in Tangshan City. And we analyzed the main factors that affect the level of consumer purchase. The results show that the degree of consumers to buy green fruit is low. Consumers' gender, income and the trust in green fruit are the main factors that affect the purchasing behaviors.

关键词： Food security green fruit logistic regression model purchasing behavior

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Depositional characteristics of debris flows in a rectangular channel with an abrupt change in slope

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JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH 2015年第3期9卷 420-428页

作者： Kim, Youngil Paik, Joongcheol Safety & Publ Adm Bur Gangneung City 210703 Gangwon South Korea Gangneung Wonju Natl Univ Dept Civil Engn Kangnung 210702 Gangwon South Korea

The degradation in the discharge capacity of culvert installed in mountain region is typically attributable to debris flow deposition, which may result in property damage and serious casualties. Understanding and accurately reproducing the behavior and the deposition features of debris flows with different material properties under various geometrical configurations are prerequisites for developing advanced design criteria for drainage culverts to prevent such damages. This study employed a series of laboratory experiments of debris flows in a rectangular channel with a constant width and with the change of slope to investigate the behavior of debris flows under a variety of conditions regarding approaching and culvert-like downstream channel slopes, representative grain sizes and sediment volume concentrations. The experimental results show that the thickness of debris flow can substantially increase (up to more than four times) compared to the thickness of clean water flow at the same flow rate. Sediment deposition of fine-material debris flow begins further downstream with an approximately 3 degrees higher surface slope compared to the case of coarse-material debris flow. Thus, the deposition area of coarse-material debris flow reaches further upstream in the approaching channel than that of fine-material debris flow. The total volume of coarse-material debris flow deposition in the channel appears to be larger than that of fine-material debris flow deposition. Based on experimental measurements and a series of complementary numerical simulations, we have developed a logistic regression model with the goal of determining optimal design criteria to prevent debris flow from depositing in the culvert-like channel. The resulting estimated logistic regression coefficients and derived deposition criteria curve indicate that the deposition of debris flow in the culvert-like channel is controlled predominantly by the bottom slope as well as the sediment volume concentrat

关键词： Debris flow Deposition Culvert Laboratory experiment logistic regression model

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Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Forest Change from 1985–2000 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2016年第4期7卷 301-308页

作者：谢雪谢花林范员华旅游与城市管理学院江西财经大学南昌330032 江西省生态文明制度建设协同创新中心江西财经大学南昌330032 江西省土地开发整理中心南昌330025

Forests are fundamental to maintaining ecological security and achieving regional sustainable development in China. Forest land change can result in many ecological problems including soil erosion, water shortages drought and biodiversity loss. Based on landscape ecology and logistic regression we explored the spatiotemporal patterns and factors affecting forest land changes from 1985 to 2000 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China. The results show decreased local fragmentation of woodland landscapes and that the shapes of forest patches have become more regular. For forest land cover change, soil organic matter content, slope type I （〈5°）, distance to the nearest village and per capita GDP were the most important independent variables from 1985 to 2000. This study indicates that spatial heterogeneity can affect the predictability of logistic regression models for forest land change.

关键词： forest land Land Use/land Coverage Change （LUCC） logistic regression model forest management ecological security

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