In 1995 Moody's Investors Services inaugurated a new rating service, bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs), that assesses the safety and soundness of banks in over 50 countries. Our study sets out to do some pre...
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摘要摘要本硏究利用「因素化駕駛行爲問卷 」(factorized driving behavior questionnaire , FDBQ),進行駕駛者駕駛行爲資料蒐集及分析。藉由集群分析與邏輯斯迴歸摸式對駕駛者交通意外事故風險與駕駛者特性、駕駛行爲進行關聯性分析,由此建立駕駛者肇事風險的評估方法。結果顯示,駕駛行爲中之侵略性及超速性違規與交通意外事故風險有明顯之關聯性;此外,性別差異、年齡、駕車頻率、吊銷或吊扣駕照記錄、超車違規記錄與酒醉違規駕駛記錄亦與肇事風險有關。AbstractThis study was focused to investigate the connections of traffic accidents and driving behaviors through collecting and analyzing the self-reported factorized driving behavior questionnaire(FDBQ). Based on the accident risk likelihood of individual driving behavior, the drivers were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups. The drivers in high-risk group were found to have significantly higher driving aggression and speeding violation rate. The results also indicated that the level of risk likelihood decreases with the increasing of driver's age and male drivers appear to have higher accident risk than female drivers. In additions, those people who reported to have been convicted of over speeding and license suspended were also found to have high risk of driving accident.
Objective: To evaluate the impact of noninvasive positive pressure mechanical ventilation (NPPV) on ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Design: Prospective observational study, Setting: Medical intensive care unit ...
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Objective: To evaluate the impact of noninvasive positive pressure mechanical ventilation (NPPV) on ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Design: Prospective observational study, Setting: Medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university teaching hospital. Patients: Cohort of 320 consecutive patients staying in the ICU more than 2 days and mechanically ventilated for greater than or equal to 1 day, Measurements and results: VAP was diagnosed when, satisfying classical clinical and radiological criteria, fiberoptic bronchoalveolar lavage and/or protected specimen brush grew greater than or equal to 10(4) and greater than or equal to 10(3) CFU/ml, respectively, of at least one microorganism. Patients were classified into four subgroups according to the way in which mechanical ventilation was delivered: NPPV then tracheal intubation (TI) (n = 38), TI then NPPV (N = 23), TI only (n = 199), and NPPV only (n = 60), Occurrence of VAP was estimated by incidence rate and density of incidence, Risk factors for VAP were assessed by logisticregression analysis, Twenty-seven patients had 25 episodes of VAP. The incidence rates for patients with VAP were 18 % In NPPV-TI, 22 % in TI-NPPV, 8 % in TI, and 0 % in NPPV (p < 0.0001), The density of incidence: of VAP was 0.85 per 100 days of TI and 0.16 per 100 days of NPPV (p = 0.04). logisticregression showed that length of ICU stay and ventilatory support were associated with VAP, Conclusions: There is a significantly lower incidence of VAP associated with NPPV compared ro tracheal intubation, This is mainly explained by differences in patient severity and risk exposure.
Feed-forward neural networks have recently been applied in situations where an analysis based on the logistic regression model would have been a standard statistical approach;direct comparisons of results, however, ar...
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Feed-forward neural networks have recently been applied in situations where an analysis based on the logistic regression model would have been a standard statistical approach;direct comparisons of results, however, are seldomly attempted. We therefore present a comparative investigation of both logistic regression models and feed-forward neural networks including some extensions. The theoretical features and properties are reviewed and illustrated in two examples, also discussing practical problems with their application. In Part II of the paper some further important aspects of approximation, overfitting and model selection are investigated in more detail both analytically and by means of simulation studies.
Objective: To identify the predictors determined early after admission and associated with unfavorable outcome or early (within 48 h) death after severe head injury. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: A neuros...
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Objective: To identify the predictors determined early after admission and associated with unfavorable outcome or early (within 48 h) death after severe head injury. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: A neurosurgical intensive care unit in a university hospital. Patients: 198 consecutive comatose patients hospitalized from 1989 to 1992. Results: logisticregression showed that a combination of age, best motor response score from the Glasgow Coma Scale, and hypoxia provided a good prediction model of unfavorable outcome (sensitivity = 0.93). The length of participation of survivors was 6 to 61 months (median 27.1). The Cox model demonstrated age, motor score less than 3, mydriasis, and hypoxia as poor prognosis factors. Conclusions: Clinicians can determine the odds of a good outcome from the combination of three easily measurable factors using a simple diagram constructed from logisticregression. Survival analysis showed that motor score adjusted values greater than 3 had the same prognosis.
Ectopic atrial tachycardia (EAT) is usually considered as benign and easy to treat. The natural history of the disease, however,has not yet been clarified. The purpose of the study was to analyse its spontaneous evolu...
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Ectopic atrial tachycardia (EAT) is usually considered as benign and easy to treat. The natural history of the disease, however,has not yet been clarified. The purpose of the study was to analyse its spontaneous evolution in a cohort of EAT patientsand to define a predictive model of remission based on several *** 1973 to 1989, 46 patients (25 male, 21 female), aged 38 ± 18 years, entered the study. Clinically EAT was paroxysmalin 23 patients, permanent in 12 and repetitive in 11; six patients where asymptomatic. Thirty-five complained of palpitations;dyspnoea, dizziness and syncope were also reported less frequently. All patients underwent an electrophysio-logical studyto clarify the mechanism of the arrhythmia and to localize its site of origin. In 15 patients no heart disease was documented,Five patients underwent surgery and were excluded from subsequent analysis. Seven patients where discharged whithout antiarrhythmictreatment. We defined remission as the absence of recurrence of EAT whithin 6 months from withdrawal of therapy. logisticregression was applied to identify potential predictors of remission. Seven clinical and electrophysiological covariates wereentered in the model; univariate and multivariate tests were performed, using the GLIM3 statistical *** a follow-up period of 5.1±4.5 years, 14 instances of remission (34%) were observed in 5/22 patients with paroxysmalEAT, 4/8 patients with permanent EAT and 5/11 patients with repetitive EAT. Mean age of patients with remission was 25±14years vs 45±15 years in the group without remission. No covariate had an independent predictive value. After exclusion ofredundant variables, a restricted model ;was tested and age at onset of EAT appeared to be the only predictor of *** conclusion, spontaneous remission of EAT does not seem to be rare; the younger age of patients with remission could suggestan inflammatory pathogenesis with subsequent healing, whereas in older patients EAT
Aetiological factors for enuresis in 68 nightwetting (NW) and 73 day and mixed day and nightwetting (DW/MW) children were examined against a random sample of 142 control children drawn from a population of 3375 seven-...
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Aetiological factors for enuresis in 68 nightwetting (NW) and 73 day and mixed day and nightwetting (DW/MW) children were examined against a random sample of 142 control children drawn from a population of 3375 seven-year-old children. Twenty-six variables concerning age, sex, social background, life changes, familial and perinatal history, development, growth, neurological damage, psychic structure and urinary tract disorders were included in the logisticregression analysis. The familial influence on enuresis was clearly seen in both nightwetters and daywetters. The NW children were further discriminated from the controls by items connected with delayed development, such as slower growth and poorer visuomotor and spatial perception. Marital separation or birth of a sibling were also found to be precipitating factors especially for nightwetters. The DW/MW children were discriminated from the controls by perinatal risk factors, signs of neurological dysfunction and smaller voided volume, and especially secondary daywetters by urinary tract infections. These models showed that there are similarities between nocturnal and diurnal enuresis, although there are still many differences and every individual case requires consideration of all these disposing factors.
The paper deals with discrete-time regressionmodels to analyze multistate-multiepisode failure time data. The covariate process may include fixed and external as well as internal time dependent covariates. The effect...
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The paper deals with discrete-time regressionmodels to analyze multistate-multiepisode failure time data. The covariate process may include fixed and external as well as internal time dependent covariates. The effects of the covariates may differ among different kinds of failures and among successive episodes. A dynamic form of the logistic regression model is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation of the regression coefficients is discussed. In the last section we give an application of the model to the analysis of survival time after breast cancer operation.
During follow-up of 485 adult patients with traumatic head injury, 51% of the patients reported new post-concussional symptoms after an observation period of 3-5 years (mean 4.0 years). Most data, including the level ...
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During follow-up of 485 adult patients with traumatic head injury, 51% of the patients reported new post-concussional symptoms after an observation period of 3-5 years (mean 4.0 years). Most data, including the level of consciousness on admission, length of post-traumatic amnesia and days of hospitalization were poor parameters for predicting which patients would suffer late complications. A few variables were statistically of predictive importance: Sex, repeated head injury and skull fracture. Age was a risk factor for multiple complaints.
During follow-up of 485 adult patients with mainly mild head injury 27% of the patients were unemployed after an observation period of 3-5 years (mean 4.0 years). The length of sick leave during the last 3 years was l...
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During follow-up of 485 adult patients with mainly mild head injury 27% of the patients were unemployed after an observation period of 3-5 years (mean 4.0 years). The length of sick leave during the last 3 years was longer than for a control group. Reduced physical capacity and time of sick leave during the last 3 years were the variables which were most closely associated with unemployment at follow-up. The long term family life, contact what friends and income were less favourable in the head injured patients than in the control group.
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