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A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 1999年第3期9卷 267-283页

作者： Poon, Winnie P. H. Firth, Michael Fung, Hung-Gay Department of Accounting and Finance Lingnan College Tuen Mun NT 8 Castle Peak Road Hong Kong Department of Accountancy Hong Kong Polytechnic University Kowloon Hung Hom Hong Kong School of Business Administration University of Missouri-St Louis St Louis MO 63121-4499 8001 Natural Bridge Road United States

In 1995 Moody's Investors Services inaugurated a new rating service, bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs), that assesses the safety and soundness of banks in over 50 countries. Our study sets out to do some preliminary investigations of this new type of credit rating. We develop logistic regression models to help explain or predict BFSRs. Using bank-specific accounting and financial data we are able to correctly classify or predict BFSRs. These fundamental variables cover the dimensions of risk, loan provision ratios, and profitability. Of the three, loan provisions is the most important factor, followed by risk, and then profitability. Country risk ratings do not appear to be significant explanators of BFSRs. We also find that traditional debt ratings accurately classify BFSRs and this raises the question of whether BFSRs add incremental information. The paper also highlights future directions for our research. One such area is to examine how well BFSRs predict banking crises such as the credit problems currently affecting Asia and Latin America. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Bank financial strength ratings logistic regression model

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駕駛行爲與肇事槪率之關聯性硏究

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Journal of Industrial and Production Engineering 1999年第1期16卷 161-172页

作者： Ya Lih Lin[a] Cheng Hua Liu[a] [a]Department of Statistics Tunghai University Taichung Taiwan

摘要摘要本硏究利用「因素化駕駛行爲問卷」(factorized driving behavior questionnaire ， FDBQ)，進行駕駛者駕駛行爲資料蒐集及分析。藉由集群分析與邏輯斯迴歸摸式對駕駛者交通意外事故風險與駕駛者特性、駕駛行爲進行關聯性分析... 详细信息

摘要摘要本硏究利用「因素化駕駛行爲問卷」(factorized driving behavior questionnaire ， FDBQ)，進行駕駛者駕駛行爲資料蒐集及分析。藉由集群分析與邏輯斯迴歸摸式對駕駛者交通意外事故風險與駕駛者特性、駕駛行爲進行關聯性分析，由此建立駕駛者肇事風險的評估方法。結果顯示，駕駛行爲中之侵略性及超速性違規與交通意外事故風險有明顯之關聯性；此外，性別差異、年齡、駕車頻率、吊銷或吊扣駕照記錄、超車違規記錄與酒醉違規駕駛記錄亦與肇事風險有關。AbstractThis study was focused to investigate the connections of traffic accidents and driving behaviors through collecting and analyzing the self-reported factorized driving behavior questionnaire(FDBQ). Based on the accident risk likelihood of individual driving behavior, the drivers were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups. The drivers in high-risk group were found to have significantly higher driving aggression and speeding violation rate. The results also indicated that the level of risk likelihood decreases with the increasing of driver's age and male drivers appear to have higher accident risk than female drivers. In additions, those people who reported to have been convicted of over speeding and license suspended were also found to have high risk of driving accident.

关键词：駕駛行爲事故風險評估因素化駕駛行爲問卷集群分析邏輯斯迴歸模式 accident risk assessment driving behavior factorized driving behavior questionnaire (FDBQ) cluster analysis logistic regression model

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Facial mask noninvasive mechanical ventilation reduces the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia - A prospective epidemiological survey from a single ICU

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INTENSIVE CARE MEDICINE 1997年第10期23卷 1024-1032页

作者： Guerin, C Girard, R Chemorin, C DeVarax, R Fournier, G CTR HOSP LYON SUD SERV HYG HOSP & EPIDEMIOLF-69310 PIERRE BENITEFRANCE

Objective: To evaluate the impact of noninvasive positive pressure mechanical ventilation (NPPV) on ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Design: Prospective observational study, Setting: Medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university teaching hospital. Patients: Cohort of 320 consecutive patients staying in the ICU more than 2 days and mechanically ventilated for greater than or equal to 1 day, Measurements and results: VAP was diagnosed when, satisfying classical clinical and radiological criteria, fiberoptic bronchoalveolar lavage and/or protected specimen brush grew greater than or equal to 10(4) and greater than or equal to 10(3) CFU/ml, respectively, of at least one microorganism. Patients were classified into four subgroups according to the way in which mechanical ventilation was delivered: NPPV then tracheal intubation (TI) (n = 38), TI then NPPV (N = 23), TI only (n = 199), and NPPV only (n = 60), Occurrence of VAP was estimated by incidence rate and density of incidence, Risk factors for VAP were assessed by logistic regression analysis, Twenty-seven patients had 25 episodes of VAP. The incidence rates for patients with VAP were 18 % In NPPV-TI, 22 % in TI-NPPV, 8 % in TI, and 0 % in NPPV (p < 0.0001), The density of incidence: of VAP was 0.85 per 100 days of TI and 0.16 per 100 days of NPPV (p = 0.04). logistic regression showed that length of ICU stay and ventilatory support were associated with VAP, Conclusions: There is a significantly lower incidence of VAP associated with NPPV compared ro tracheal intubation, This is mainly explained by differences in patient severity and risk exposure.

关键词： epidemiology in ICU facial mask mechanical ventilation logistic regression model nosocomial pneumonia ventilator-associated pneumonia

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Neural networks and logistic regression .1.

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COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS 1996年第6期21卷 661-682页

作者： Schumacher, M Rossner, R Vach, W UNIV FREIBURG INST MED BIOMETRY & INFORMAT D-79104 FREIBURG GERMANY UNIV FREIBURG CTR DATA ANAL & MODEL BLDG D-79104 FREIBURG GERMANY

Feed-forward neural networks have recently been applied in situations where an analysis based on the logistic regression model would have been a standard statistical approach;direct comparisons of results, however, are seldomly attempted. We therefore present a comparative investigation of both logistic regression models and feed-forward neural networks including some extensions. The theoretical features and properties are reviewed and illustrated in two examples, also discussing practical problems with their application. In Part II of the paper some further important aspects of approximation, overfitting and model selection are investigated in more detail both analytically and by means of simulation studies.

关键词： feed-forward neural networks logistic regression model Newton-Raphson algorithm survival data overfitting model selection

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Severe head injuries: An outcome prediction and survival analysis

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INTENSIVE CARE MEDICINE 1996年第12期22卷 1391-1395页

作者： Combes, P Fauvage, B Colonna, M Passagia, JG Chirossel, JP Jacquot, C FAC MED GRENOBLE DEPT SANTE PUBL F-38700 LA TRONCHE FRANCE CHU GRENOBLE SERV NEUROCHIRURG F-38043 GRENOBLE FRANCE

Objective: To identify the predictors determined early after admission and associated with unfavorable outcome or early (within 48 h) death after severe head injury. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: A neurosurgical intensive care unit in a university hospital. Patients: 198 consecutive comatose patients hospitalized from 1989 to 1992. Results: logistic regression showed that a combination of age, best motor response score from the Glasgow Coma Scale, and hypoxia provided a good prediction model of unfavorable outcome (sensitivity = 0.93). The length of participation of survivors was 6 to 61 months (median 27.1). The Cox model demonstrated age, motor score less than 3, mydriasis, and hypoxia as poor prognosis factors. Conclusions: Clinicians can determine the odds of a good outcome from the combination of three easily measurable factors using a simple diagram constructed from logistic regression. Survival analysis showed that motor score adjusted values greater than 3 had the same prognosis.

关键词： head injury prognosis trauma severity grading system logistic regression model cox regression analysis

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FACTORS THAT PREDICT SPONTANEOUS REMISSION OF ECTOPIC ATRIAL TACHYCARDIA

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EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL 1993年第12期14卷 1654-1656页

作者： KLERSY, C CHIMIENTI, M MARANGONI, E COMELLI, M SALERNO, JA Division of Cardiology Biometric Unit — Scientific Direction and Institute of Medical Statistics IRCCS Policlinico San MatteoUniversity of Pavia Italy

Ectopic atrial tachycardia (EAT) is usually considered as benign and easy to treat. The natural history of the disease, however,has not yet been clarified. The purpose of the study was to analyse its spontaneous evolution in a cohort of EAT patientsand to define a predictive model of remission based on several *** 1973 to 1989, 46 patients (25 male, 21 female), aged 38 ± 18 years, entered the study. Clinically EAT was paroxysmalin 23 patients, permanent in 12 and repetitive in 11; six patients where asymptomatic. Thirty-five complained of palpitations;dyspnoea, dizziness and syncope were also reported less frequently. All patients underwent an electrophysio-logical studyto clarify the mechanism of the arrhythmia and to localize its site of origin. In 15 patients no heart disease was documented,Five patients underwent surgery and were excluded from subsequent analysis. Seven patients where discharged whithout antiarrhythmictreatment. We defined remission as the absence of recurrence of EAT whithin 6 months from withdrawal of therapy. logisticregression was applied to identify potential predictors of remission. Seven clinical and electrophysiological covariates wereentered in the model; univariate and multivariate tests were performed, using the GLIM3 statistical *** a follow-up period of 5.1±4.5 years, 14 instances of remission (34%) were observed in 5/22 patients with paroxysmalEAT, 4/8 patients with permanent EAT and 5/11 patients with repetitive EAT. Mean age of patients with remission was 25±14years vs 45±15 years in the group without remission. No covariate had an independent predictive value. After exclusion ofredundant variables, a restricted model ;was tested and age at onset of EAT appeared to be the only predictor of *** conclusion, spontaneous remission of EAT does not seem to be rare; the younger age of patients with remission could suggestan inflammatory pathogenesis with subsequent healing, whereas in older patients EAT

关键词： ATRIAL TACHYCARDIA logistic regression model

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ETIOLOGIC AND PRECIPITATING FACTORS FOR CHILDHOOD ENURESIS

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ACTA PAEDIATRICA SCANDINAVICA 1991年第3期80卷 361-369页

作者： JARVELIN, MR MOILANEN, I KANGAS, P MORING, K VIKEVAINENTERVONEN, L HUTTUNEN, NP SEPPANEN, J UNIV OULU DEPT APPL MATH & STATSF-90220 OULUFINLAND

Aetiological factors for enuresis in 68 nightwetting (NW) and 73 day and mixed day and nightwetting (DW/MW) children were examined against a random sample of 142 control children drawn from a population of 3375 seven-year-old children. Twenty-six variables concerning age, sex, social background, life changes, familial and perinatal history, development, growth, neurological damage, psychic structure and urinary tract disorders were included in the logistic regression analysis. The familial influence on enuresis was clearly seen in both nightwetters and daywetters. The NW children were further discriminated from the controls by items connected with delayed development, such as slower growth and poorer visuomotor and spatial perception. Marital separation or birth of a sibling were also found to be precipitating factors especially for nightwetters. The DW/MW children were discriminated from the controls by perinatal risk factors, signs of neurological dysfunction and smaller voided volume, and especially secondary daywetters by urinary tract infections. These models showed that there are similarities between nocturnal and diurnal enuresis, although there are still many differences and every individual case requires consideration of all these disposing factors.

关键词： NIGHTWETTING DAYWETTING DEVELOPMENTAL DELAY NEUROLOGICAL DAMAGE LIFE CHANGES REPRESSION logistic regression model

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A DYNAMIC logistic-regression model FOR MULTIPLE SPELL FAILURE TIME DATA

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BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL 1988年第4期30卷 471-481页

作者： HAMERLE, A UNIV CONSTANCE STAT ABT D-7750 CONSTANCE GERMANY

The paper deals with discrete-time regression models to analyze multistate-multiepisode failure time data. The covariate process may include fixed and external as well as internal time dependent covariates. The effects of the covariates may differ among different kinds of failures and among successive episodes. A dynamic form of the logistic regression model is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation of the regression coefficients is discussed. In the last section we give an application of the model to the analysis of survival time after breast cancer operation.

关键词： Multistate‐multiepisode failure time data Discrete time models Time dependent covariates logistic regression model Maximum likelihood estimation

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LATE POSTCONCUSSIONAL SYMPTOMS IN TRAUMATIC HEAD-INJURY - AN ANALYSIS OF FREQUENCY AND RISK-FACTORS

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ACTA NEUROCHIRURGICA 1987年第1-2期86卷 12-17页

作者： EDNA, TH CAPPELEN, J REG HOSP TRONDHEIM DEPT NEUROSURG N-7000 TRONDHEIM NORWAY

During follow-up of 485 adult patients with traumatic head injury, 51% of the patients reported new post-concussional symptoms after an observation period of 3-5 years (mean 4.0 years). Most data, including the level of consciousness on admission, length of post-traumatic amnesia and days of hospitalization were poor parameters for predicting which patients would suffer late complications. A few variables were statistically of predictive importance: Sex, repeated head injury and skull fracture. Age was a risk factor for multiple complaints.

关键词： logistic regression model post-concussional symptoms prognosis traumatic head injury

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RETURN TO WORK AND SOCIAL-ADJUSTMENT AFTER TRAUMATIC HEAD-INJURY

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ACTA NEUROCHIRURGICA 1987年第1-2期85卷 40-43页

作者： EDNA, TH CAPPELEN, J INNHERRED HOSP DEPT SURG N-7600 LEVANGER NORWAY REG HOSP TRONDHEIM DEPT NEUROSURG N-7000 TRONDHEIM NORWAY

During follow-up of 485 adult patients with mainly mild head injury 27% of the patients were unemployed after an observation period of 3-5 years (mean 4.0 years). The length of sick leave during the last 3 years was longer than for a control group. Reduced physical capacity and time of sick leave during the last 3 years were the variables which were most closely associated with unemployment at follow-up. The long term family life, contact what friends and income were less favourable in the head injured patients than in the control group.

关键词： logistic regression model social prognosis traumatic head injury unemployment

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