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Industrial transformation for synergistic carbon and pollutant reduction in China: Using environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model and multi-objective optimization

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ENERGY 2025年 318卷

作者： Zhang, Shuo Yu, Kun Yu, Yadong East China Univ Sci & Technol Sch Business Shanghai Peoples R China Natl Univ Singapore Dept Civil & Environm Engn Singapore Singapore

China faces significant environmental challenges, including reducing pollutants, improving environmental quality, and peaking carbon emissions. Industrial restructuring is key to achieving both emission reductions and economic transformation. This study uses the Environmentally Extended multi-regional input-output model and multi-objective optimization to analyze pathways for China's industrial transformation to synergistically reduce emissions. Our findings indicate that under a compromise scenario, China's carbon emissions could stabilize at around 10.9 billion tonnes by 2030, with energy consumption controlled at approximately 5 billion tonnes. The Papermaking sector in Guangdong and the Chemicals sector in Shandong are expected to flourish, while the Coal Mining sector in Shanxi and the Communication Equipment sector in Jiangsu will see reductions. The synergy strength between carbon emission reduction and energy conservation is highest at 11 %, followed by a 7 % synergy between carbon emission and nitrogen oxide reduction. However, significant trade-offs are observed between carbon emission reduction and chemical oxygen demand, and ammonia nitrogen reduction targets at -9%. This comprehensive analysis at regional and sectoral levels provides valuable insights for advancing China's carbon reduction and pollution control goals.

关键词： Carbon reduction Pollutant reduction Industrial transformation China multi-regional input-output model multi-objective optimization

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CO₂ emissions in the global supply chains of services: An analysis based on a multi-regional input-output model

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ENERGY POLICY 2015年 86卷 93-103页

作者： Zhang, Wencheng Peng, Shuijun Sun, Chuanwang Xiamen Univ Sch Econ Dept Int Econ & Business Xiamen 361005 Peoples R China Xiamen Univ Sch Econ Collaborat Innovat Ctr Energy Econ & Energy Polic Xiamen 361005 Peoples R China

As the service sector dominates the economy in developed countries, its environmental impact has become an important issue. Based on a multi-regional input-output model, this paper estimates consumption-based emissions of service sectors of 41 countries and regions, and discusses the emission abatement policy of service sectors. The results indicate that consumption-based emissions of the service sector in most countries and regions are much greater than direct emissions generated by the service sector. Further decomposition by production sources demonstrates that final demand for services in certain countries causes substantial emissions in the other countries. In most countries, major parts of consumption-based emissions of the service sector come from upstream emissions in non-service sectors due to the intermediate consumption of non-service inputs in the service sector. For the US and China, the consumption-based emissions of their service sectors are traced back to different service consumption bundles and production sectors, which enable us to identify service categories and production sectors that play key roles in the impact of service sectors on CO2 emissions. Finally, policy implications of the results are discussed for the climate effect of the service-oriented economy, global mitigation of climate change, sustainability, and the decarbonization of the service sector. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Service sector CO2 emissions multi-regional input-output model

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Virtual Water Trade in the Yellow River Economic Belt: A multi-regional input-output model

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WATER 2021年第6期13卷 748页

作者： Li, Ming Tian, Qingsong Yu, Yan Xu, Yueyan Li, Chongguang Huazhong Agr Univ Sch Econ & Management Wuhan 430070 Peoples R China

The sustainable and efficient use of water resources has gained wide social concern, and the key point is to investigate the virtual water trade of the water-scarcity region and optimize water resources allocation. In this paper, we apply a multi-regional input-output model to analyze patterns and the spillover risks of the interprovincial virtual water trade in the Yellow River Economic Belt, China. The results show that: (1) The agriculture and supply sector as well as electricity and hot water production own the largest total water use coefficient, being high-risk water use sectors in the Yellow River Economic Belt. These two sectors also play a major role in the inflow and outflow of virtual water;(2) The overall situation of the Yellow River Economic Belt is virtual water inflow, but the pattern of virtual water trade between eastern and western provinces is quite different. Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia belong to the virtual water net inflow area, while the virtual water net outflow regions are concentrated in Shanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Qinghai;(3) Due to higher water resource stress, Shandong and Shanxi suffer a higher cumulative risk through virtual water trade. Also, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia have a higher spillover risk to other provinces in the Yellow River Economic Belt.

关键词： virtual water trade spillover risk multi-regional input-output model the Yellow River Economic Belt

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Water Footprint and Virtual Water Accounting for China Using a multi-regional input-output model

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WATER 2019年第1期11卷 34-34页

作者： Zhang, Yuanying Chen, Yimin Huang, Min Sun Yat Sen Univ Sch Geog & Planning Guangdong Key Lab Urbanizat & Geosimulat Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China

Water footprint (WF) is a measure of the actual appropriation of water resources. WF accounting can provide a scientific basis for the managements of water resources. In this study, a multi-regional input-output model is employed to measure the quantity of blue WF (WF) and inter-provincial virtual water (VW) flows in China for the years of 2007 and 2010. The results show that: (1) China's total WF increased from 205.42 billion m(3) in 2007 to 229.34 billion m(3) in 2010. Approximately 42% of the WF was attributed to VW embodied in inter-provincial trade. Xinjiang is the largest province of VW export, whereas Shanghai had the largest net VW inflows. (2) From 2007 to 2010, the share of the agricultural sector in the entire VW trade declined, but was still as high as 82.78%, followed by the industrial sector. (3) The north-to-south and south-to-south patterns were witnessed in the domestic VW flows. The provincial WF variations are found to be affected by the per capital GDP, total water resources, per capita water resources, and urban population. (4) By linking VW with an integrated WAVE+ (water accounting and vulnerability evaluation) factor, it was found that virtual scarce water (VSW) was mainly exported by the provinces in northern China. At the national level, the amounts of VSW inflows were consistently greater than those of VSW outflows for both years, 2007 and 2010, implying an increased pressure on the provinces with water deprivation issues. Overall, these results can provide a basis for refining the spatiotemporal allocation of water resources and mitigating the conflict between water supply and demand in China.

关键词： water footprint virtual water multi-regional input-output model

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A multi-scenario factorial analysis and multi-regional input-output model for analyzing CO2 emission reduction path in Jing-Jin-Ji region

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2021年 300卷 126782-126782页

作者： Wang, P. P. Li, Y. P. Huang, G. H. Wang, S. G. Suo, C. Ma, Y. Shandong Univ Sch Environm Sci & Engn Qingdao 266237 Peoples R China Univ Regina Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities Regina SK S4S0A2 Canada Shandong Univ Sch Environm Sci & Engn Shandong Key Lab Water Pollut Control & Resource Qingdao 266237 Peoples R China North China Elect Power Univ Sino Canada Energy & Environm Res Ctr Beijing 102206 Peoples R China Beijing Normal Univ Sch Environm Environm & Energy Syst Engn Res Ctr Beijing 100875 Peoples R China

In this study, a multi-scenario factorial analysis and multi-regional input-output (MFA-MRIO) model is developed, which is capable of evaluating carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and simulating CO2 emission reduction path, as well as disclosing individual and interactive effects of multi-factor, multi-sector and multi-city for urban agglomeration. A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region that is one of the most strategic core regions for China's economic development is conducted to prove the applicability of the MFA-MRIO model. multiple scenarios based on direct CO2 reduction and final demand mitigation on various industries are examined. The major findings are: (i) for the whole region in the future, metallurgical industry, electric heating industry, and transportation would be the main CO2 emission sectors;(ii) among all CO2 emission transfers, CO2 flow from Hebei to Beijing would be the highest, especially for metallurgical industry;(iii) for the whole region in the future, the annual growth rate of CO2 emission from the tertiary industry would be higher than that of the secondary industry;(iv) with a high GDP growth rate, loose direct CO2 reduction policy on sectors would also achieve effective CO2 mitigation;(v) with a high GDP growth rate, appropriate final demand reduction policy on high-carbon industries in Tianjin and Hebei would have a positive effect on carbon intensity reduction. These findings can provide desired decision support for CO2 mitigation of urban agglomeration within a multi-sector and multi-city context. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： CO2 emission Factorial analysis Jing-Jin-Ji region multi-regional input-output model multiple scenarios Production-side mitigation

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Reshaping regional carbon productivity in the Pearl River Delta megaregion: input-output-based multi-objective optimization to explore low-carbon industrial transitions

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2025年 506卷

作者： Zhou, Ya Mo, Yin Zheng, Heran Zhou, Yang Wang, Zhenyu Liang, Sai Guangdong Univ Technol Guangdong Basic Res Ctr Excellence Ecol Secur & Gr Key Lab City Cluster Environm Safety & Green Dev Minist EducSch Ecol Environm & Resources Guangzhou 510006 Peoples R China UCL Bartlett Sch Sustainable Construct London England Southern Univ Sci & Technol Dept Ocean Sci & Engn Shenzhen Peoples R China Univ Regina Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities Regina SK Canada Tsinghua Univ Dept Earth Syst Sci Beijing Peoples R China

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) megaregion has emerged as China's foremost polycentric area. The region strives to lead China's transition to industrial low-carbon reorientation. Achieving this goal necessitates cross-sectoral strategic development solutions that consider the intricate interconnections between cities within the region. In this study, we developed a novel MRIO-based multi-objective optimization framework to address the challenge of reshaping the region's carbon productivity. This framework explores the optimal planning pathways for multicity industrial restructuring to achieve a more efficient regional low-carbon transition. Our findings suggest that reshaping the regional industrial structure would propel economic prosperity across all affiliated cities, with advanced manufacturing and modern service sectors having the potential to contribute over 75 % of the region's GDP by 2035. The industrial restructuring would present opportunities for attaining the goal of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and peak energy consumption by 2035 with higher production efficiency. Our study provides valuable insights into the development of industrial restructuring and decarbonization pathways for the PRD and other megaregions.

关键词： Industrial restructuring Carbon productivity Pearl River Delta megaregion Consumption-based emissions multi-regional input-output model Fractional programming

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Cutting CO_(2)emissions through demand side regulation:Implications from multi-regional input-output linear programming model

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Frontiers of Engineering Management 2022年第3期9卷 452-461页

作者： Nan LIU Jidong KANG Tsan Sheng NG Bin SU School of Management Tianjin Normal UniversityTianjin 300387China Energy Studies Institute National University of SingaporeSingapore 119620Singapore Department of Industrial&Systems Engineering and Management National University of SingaporeSingapore 117576Singapore

This study combines multi-regional inputoutput(MRIO)model with linear programming(LP)model to explore economic structure adjustment strategies for the reduction of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions.A particular feature of this study is the identification of the optimal regulation sequence of final products in various regions to reduce CO_(2)emissions with the minimum loss in gross domestic product(GDP).By using China's MRIO tables 2017 with 28 regions and 42 economic sectors,results show that reduction in final demand leads to simultaneous reductions in GDP and CO_(2)***,certain demand side regulation strategy can be adopted to lower CO_(2)emissions at the smallest loss of economic *** key final products,such as metallurgy,nonmetal,metal,and chemical products,should first be regulated to reduce CO_(2)emissions at the minimum loss in *** of these key products concentrate in the coastal developed regions in *** proposed MRIO-LP model considers the inter-relationship among various sectors and regions,and can aid policy makers in designing effective policy for industrial structure adjustment at the regional level to achieve the national environmental and economic targets.

关键词： CO_(2)emissions demand side regulation multi-regional input-output model linear programming model

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Exploring the Carbon Emission Transfers Pathway to Address the Issue of Sustainable Development: A multi-regional input-output Perspective

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2025年第0期

作者： Liu, Xiaoqian Cifuentes-Faura, Javier Shi, Wenming Tian, Chunhui Sichuan Univ Coll Carbon Neutral Future Technol Chengdu Peoples R China Sichuan Univ Yibin Inst Ind Technol Yibin Peoples R China Univ Murcia Fac Econ & Business Murcia Spain Univ Tasmania Australian Maritime Coll Ctr Maritime & Logist Management Launceston Tas Australia Yangzhou Hanjiang Dist Tax Bur State Taxat Adm Yangzhou Peoples R China

Exploring the path of carbon emission transfers (CETs) in large emitting countries is pivotal to address the issue of sustainable development. Based on several stylized facts about inter-regional CETs in China, this study uses a multi-regional input-output model to examine the inter-regional net CET relationships due to commodity flows by calculating their scale and direction and decomposing them at the industry level. The main findings are as follows. First, using evidence from China, we observe a regional disparity of carbon emissions and confirm that the embodied CETs caused by commodity flows have increased significantly. Second, the scale of CETs shows an expansionary trend with intermediate products causing more CETs than final products, while their direction presents a shift to regions with geographical adjacencies and complementary industrial structures. Third, the CET path is relatively fixed for the industrial sectors that provide products externally and bear carbon emissions, which, however, demonstrates a tendency to fragment for the industrial sectors that consume external products and transfer carbon emissions. These results provide profound evidence and implications for developing a low-carbon economy and implementing coordinated emission reduction measures among regions in China, which can further serve as a worldwide reference to promote sustainable development.

关键词： carbon emission transfers embodied carbon emissions multi-regional input-output model sustainable development

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Redefining responsibility for China energy-related methane emission reductions: An embodied perspective driven by consumption

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ENERGY POLICY 2025年 203卷

作者： Qian, Weijin Yao, Liming Zhan, Wenting Sichuan Univ Business Sch Chengdu 610064 Peoples R China

Energy-related methane (ERM) emissions constitute the primary source of anthropogenic methane emissions, attracting significant attention from policymakers and researchers globally. While existing research focuses predominantly on producer carbon emission reduction responsibility, limited attention has been paid to embodied ERM emissions transfer and inter-provincial trade-driven reduction responsibilities. This study employs multi-regional input-output (MRIO) modeling and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to analyze production and consumption-based embodied ERM emissions in China. Results reveal significant embodied ERM emission transfers from energy-rich to developed provinces due to regional energy productionconsumption disparities. Driving factor analysis indicates that energy consumption intensity emerges as the primary reduction driver, while economic activity effect, emission structure intensity, and population scale contribute to increased emissions, with varying provincial impacts. In light of these findings, we recommend incorporating embodied ERM emissions into provincial reduction responsibilities and developing locally tailored strategies from both production and consumption perspectives that align with SDGs 7, 12, and 13. These practical and managerial insights provide valuable guidance for emerging economies undergoing industrialization and urbanization.

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Impact of water transfer on socioeconomic drought in China: A new approach based on production and consumption

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AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 2025年 308卷

作者： Qu, Junlin Qin, Changhai Chang, Jiaxuan Zhao, Yong Wang, Hao He, Fan State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River Beijing 100038 Peoples R China Minist Water Resources Key Lab Water Safety Beijing Tianjin Hebei Reg Beijing 100038 Peoples R China China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res Beijing 100038 Peoples R China

Studies and government decisions misestimate the extent of socioeconomic drought because the impact of virtual water flows on water resources is ignored. Considering the full demand for water resources, this paper evaluates the mitigation of socioeconomic drought by water transfer from a contrasting perspective of production and consumption. In 2017, the virtual water transfer volume at the national level was 162.7 Gm3, and the inter-basin diversion volume was 19.6 Gm3. The transfer of water in physical and virtual form is already more than 30% of total water consumption. Due to the improvement of water use efficiency, agriculture virtual water flow was reduced to 115.6 Gm3 in 2017, compared with 120.4 Gm3 in 2007. Demand induced by purchase and consumption is a significant driver of water transfer. By importing products and services, the affluent east (Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang) indirectly draw a large amount of water from the backward central and western regions (Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi). In 2017, the proportion of imported virtual water in regional consumption water increased significantly, accounting for 75.7 % in Beijing, 58.9% in Tianjin and 46.1 % in Zhejiang. At the same time, the export regions provide remote support to the import regions by consuming local water. The proportion of virtual water exports to local water intake is 54.4% in Heilongjiang, 48.3% in Xinjiang, and 27.4% in Inner Mongolia. Due to the contribution of virtual water, the water consumption stress index increases significantly compared to the production water stress index in the importing region. Not only internally, the risk of drought in the importing regions is severely underestimated due to the neglect of external stresses in the exporting regions. Demand management and shared responsibility must be strengthened to redistribute freshwater by adjusting consumption structure and supply-chain relationships.

关键词： Socioeconomic water consumption Inter-basin water transfer Virtual water Consumer responsibility multi-regional input-output model

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