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Optimizing extended warranty options with preventive maintenance service under multinomial logit model

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH 2025年第2期321卷 600-613页

作者： Dai, Anshu Yang, Xi Yang, Duo Li, Ting Wang, Xin He, Shuguang Tianjin Univ Finance & Econ Sch Management Sci & Engn Tianjin 300222 Peoples R China China Automot Informat Technol Tianjin Co Ltd Tianjin 300300 Peoples R China North Univ China Coll Econ & Management Taiyuan 030051 Peoples R China Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ Sino US Global Logist Inst Antai Coll Econ & Management Shanghai 200030 Peoples R China Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ Data Driven Management Decis Making Lab Shanghai 200030 Peoples R China Tianjin Univ Coll Management Sci & Econ Tianjin 300072 Peoples R China

Extended warranty (EW) services have become the primary source of profit for manufacturers. How to design the appropriate EW service to balance customer user experience with the manufacturer's profit issues has received great attention. Implementing preventive maintenance (PM) actions can not only reduce the customer's lifecycle cost but also enhance the manufacturer's brand image. Therefore, EW bundled with PM service has emerged in the after-sales market today. To enrich customers' choice, we investigate the design of EW menus bundled with PM service options, and then we jointly determine EW prices and the frequency of PM actions for the provided menus. In the proposed model, we combine the multinomial logit model with prospect theory to characterize customer choice behavior when presented with different EW menu options. Based on that, with the aim of maximizing the manufacturer's profit, we can derive sets of offers, the corresponding EW service prices, and the number of included PM actions. We also introduce two additional models that account for different customer purchase scenarios. Numerical results reveal that when the manufacturer chooses to offer a unified EW menu to all customers, it is consistently more profitable to present the menu at the point of product sales. Another interesting finding is that customized EW menus designed for various customer segments do not always outperform unified ones. Overall, this study will provide a foundation for manufacturers to make informed decisions regarding the selection and design of EW menus in various scenarios.

关键词： multinomial logit model Prospect theory Preventive maintenance Warranty menu Customized extended warranty

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Heterogeneity in crash patterns of autonomous vehicles: The latent class analysis coupled with multinomial logit model

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ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2025年 209卷 107827页

作者： Ren, Qiaoqiao Xu, Min Hong Kong Polytech Univ Dept Ind & Syst Engn Hung Hom Hong Kong Peoples R China

Understanding the heterogeneity in autonomous vehicle (AV) crash patterns is crucial for enhancing the safety and public acceptance of autonomous transportation systems. In this paper, 584 AV collision reports from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (CA DMV) were first extracted and augmented by a highly automatic and fast variable extraction framework. Crash damage severities, classified as none, minor, moderate, and major, were set as the dependent variables. Factors including crash, road, temporal, vehicle, and environment characteristics were identified as potential determinants. To account for the heterogeneity inherent in crash data and identify key factors influencing the damage severity in AV crashes, a methodology integrating the latent class analysis and multinomial logit model was employed. Two heterogeneous clusters were determined based on the skewed distributions of vehicle status and driving mode. The model estimation results indicate a positive association between severe crash damage and some risk factors, such as head-on, intersection, multiple vehicles, dark with street lights, dark without street lights, and early morning. This study also reveals significant differences among the variables influencing the damage severity across two distinct subclasses. Moreover, partitioning the AV crash dataset into heterogeneous subsets facilitates the identification of critical factors that remain obscured when the dataset is analyzed as a whole, such as the evening indicator. This paper not only enhances our understanding of AV crash patterns but also paves the way for safer AV technology.

关键词： Autonomous vehicle Damage severity Crash pattern Heterogeneity Latent class analysis multinomial logit model

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A penalized U-MIDAS multinomial logit model with applications to corporate credit ratings

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NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 2025年 76卷

作者： Jiang, Cuixia Sun, Junwei Xu, Qifa Hefei Univ Technol Sch Management Hefei 230009 Anhui Peoples R China Minist Educ Key Lab Proc Optimizat & Intelligent Decis Making Hefei 230009 Anhui Peoples R China Tunxi Rd 193 Hefei Anhui Peoples R China

We develop a penalized U-MIDAS-Mlogit model by introducing the group LASSO penalty into the unrestricted MIDAS multinomial logit model. This penalized U-MIDAS-Mlogit model can implement multinomial classification in a high-dimensional mixed-frequency data environment. We apply it to credit ratings for listed companies in China over the period 2008-2023. The penalized U-MIDAS-Mlogit model can extract pivotal information from high-frequency financial variables and low-frequency internal and external governance indicators. It outperforms several competing models in predicting credit ratings.

关键词： Corporate credit ratings U-MIDAS regression multinomial logit model Group LASSO

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A multinomial logit model based approach to find patterns among occupational accidents in Turkish manufacturing systems

JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND ARCHITECTURE OF GA...

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JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND ARCHITECTURE OF GAZI UNIVERSITY 2024年第2期39卷 1049-1066页

作者： Mutlu, Nazli Gulum Selim, Sibel Altuntas, Serkan Bingol Univ Fac Hlth Sci Occupat Hlth & Safety TR-12000 Bingol Turkiye Manisa Celal Bayar Univ Fac Econ & Adm Sci Dept Econometr TR-45030 Manisa Turkiye Yildiz Tech Univ Fac Mech Engn Dept Ind Engn TR-34349 Istanbul Turkiye

Turkish manufacturing industry is in the top three in terms of occupational accident frequency among sectors. Therefore, there is a need to determine accident cause-effect relationships in order to improve occupational safety and minimize the risks that cause occupational accidents in the manufacturing industry. An integreated data driven approach is proposed to find patterns among occupational accidents in Turkish manufacturing systems. The proposed approach uses multinomial logit model (MLM) and decision tree algorithms, namely C5.0, Classification and Regression Trees (C&RT), The quaternion estimation (QUEST), Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) ve Random Trees. In this study, 307,590 occupational accidents in the Turkish manufacturing industry between 2013 and 2019 are used. It is found that there is a statistically significant relationship among division, geographical location of the accident, year, deviation, hour day, gender and age for all accidents with injury, death and loss of limb according to the absence of disability. Additionally, division, geographical location of the accident and year are among the top five predictors based on decision tree algorithms.

关键词： Manufacturing industry occupational accidents multinomial logit model decision tree analysis occupational safety and health

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The multinomial logit model revisited: A semi-parametric approach in discrete choice analysis

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART B-METHODOLOGICAL 2011年第3期45卷 461-473页

作者： Li, Baibing Univ Loughborough Sch Business Loughborough LE11 3TU Leics England

The multinomial logit model in discrete choice analysis is widely used in transport research. It has long been known that the Gumbel distribution forms the basis of the multinomial logit model. Although the Gumbel distribution is a good approximation in some applications such as route choice problems, it is chosen mainly for mathematical convenience. This can be restrictive in many other scenarios in practice. In this paper we show that the assumption of the Gumbel distribution can be substantially relaxed to include a large class of distributions that is stable with respect to the minimum operation. The distributions in the class allow heteroscedastic variances. We then seek a transformation that stabilizes the heteroscedastic variances. We show that this leads to a semi-parametric choice model which links the linear combination of travel-related attributes to the choice probabilities via an unknown sensitivity function. This sensitivity function reflects the degree of travelers' sensitivity to the changes in the combined travel cost. The estimation of the semi-parametric choice model is also investigated and empirical studies are used to illustrate the developed method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Discrete choice model Gumbel distribution multinomial logit model Semi-parametric model Variance stabilization

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FITTING THE multinomial logit model WITH CONTINUOUS COVARIATES IN GLIM

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COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS 1992年第1期14卷 89-97页

作者： AITKIN, M FRANCIS, B JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV DEPT BIOSTATBALTIMOREMD 21218 TEL AVIV UNIV IL-69978 TEL AVIVISRAEL UNIV LANCASTER LANCASTER LA1 4YFENGLAND

A standard method for fitting the multinomial logit model, used in some statistical packages, is to represent it in terms of the equivalent Poisson log-linear model. The constraint necessary for this equivalence requires the inclusion of a set of nuisance parameters in the Poisson model, of dimension equal to the number of distinct values of the set of covariates. In such packages the model is therefore restricted to the analysis of categorical covariates, i.e. contingency tables. This paper describes a method for fitting the multinomial logit model which requires only a simple scoring algorithm, but does not use the equivalent Poisson model, and can be used with continuous covariates with an unlimited number of distinct values. The method is implemented as a set of GLIM macros. An example is discussed.

关键词： multinomial logit model POISSON LOG-LINEAR model CONTINUOUS COVARIATES GLIM

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Stochastic approximation for uncapacitated assortment optimization under the multinomial logit model

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NAVAL RESEARCH LOGISTICS 2022年第7期69卷 927-938页

作者： Peeters, Yannik den Boer, Arnoud, V Univ Amsterdam Amsterdam Business Sch Plantage Muidergracht 12 NL-1018 TV Amsterdam Netherlands Univ Amsterdam Korteweg de Vries Inst Math Amsterdam Netherlands

We consider dynamic assortment optimization with incomplete information under the uncapacitated multinomial logit choice model. We propose an anytime stochastic approximation policy and prove that the regret-the cumulative expected revenue loss caused by offering suboptimal assortments-after T$$ T $$ time periods is bounded by T$$ \sqrt{T} $$ times a constant that is independent of the number of products. In addition, we prove a matching lower bound on the regret for any policy that is valid for arbitrary model parameters-slightly generalizing a recent regret lower bound derived for specific revenue parameters. Numerical illustrations suggest that our policy outperforms alternatives by a significant margin when T$$ T $$ and the number of products N$$ N $$ are not too small.

关键词： assortment optimization incomplete information multinomial logit model stochastic approximation

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Technical Note-Capacitated Assortment Optimization Under the multinomial logit model with Nested Consideration Sets

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OPERATIONS RESEARCH 2018年第2期66卷 380-391页

作者： Feldman, Jacob Topaloglu, Huseyin Washington Univ Olin Business Sch St Louis MO 63130 USA Cornell Tech Sch Operat Res & Informat Engn New York NY 10011 USA

We study capacitated assortment problems when customers choose under the multinomial logit model with nested consideration sets. In this choice model, there are multiple customer types, and a customer of a particular type is interested in purchasing only a particular subset of products. We use the term consideration set to refer to the subset of products that a customer of a particular type is interested in purchasing. The consideration sets of customers of different types are nested in the sense that the consideration set of one customer type is included in the consideration set of another. The choice process for customers of different types is governed by the same multinomial logit model except for the fact that customers of different types have different consideration sets. Each product, if offered to customers, occupies a certain amount of space. The sale of each product generates a certain amount of revenue. Given that customers choose from among the offered products according to the multinomial logit model with nested consideration sets, the goal of the assortment problem is to find a set of products to offer to maximize the expected revenue obtained from a customer, while making sure that the total space consumption of the offered products does not exceed a certain limit. We show that this assortment problem is NP-hard, even when there is no limit on the total space consumption of the offered products. Motivated by this complexity result, we give a fully polynomial time approximation scheme for the problem.

关键词： assortment optimization customer choice models approximation algorithms multinomial logit model

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Assortment Optimization Under the multinomial logit model with Sequential Offerings

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INFORMS JOURNAL ON COMPUTING 2020年第3期32卷 835-853页

作者： Liu, Nan Ma, Yuhang Topaloglu, Huseyin Boston Coll Carroll Sch Management Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA Cornell Tech Sch Operat Res & Informat Engn New York NY 10044 USA

We consider assortment optimization problems, where the choice process of a customer takes place in multiple stages. There is a finite number of stages. In each stage, we offer an assortment of products that does not overlap with the assortments offered in the earlier stages. If the customer makes a purchase within the offered assortment, then the customer leaves the system with the purchase. Otherwise, the customer proceeds to the next stage, where we offer another assortment. If the customer reaches the end of the last stage without a purchase, then the customer leaves the system without a purchase. The choice of the customer in each stage is governed by a multinomial logit model. The goal is to find an assortment to offer in each stage to maximize the expected revenue obtained from a customer. For this assortment optimization problem, it turns out that the union of the optimal assortments to offer in each stage is nested by revenue in the sense that this union includes a certain number of products with the largest revenues. However, it is still difficult to figure out the stage in which a certain product should be offered. In particular, the problem of finding an assortment to offer in each stage to maximize the expected revenue obtained from a customer is NP hard. We give a fully polynomial time approximation scheme for the problem when the number of stages is fixed.

关键词： marketing choice models multinomial logit model approximation schemes dynamic programming

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SEARCHING FOR POSITIVE RETURNS AT THE TRACK - A multinomial logit model FOR HANDICAPPING HORSE RACES

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MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 1986年第8期32卷 1040-1060页

作者： BOLTON, RN CHAPMAN, RG UNIV ALBERTA FAC BUSINESS DEPT MKT & ECON ANAL EDMONTON T6G 2R6 ALBERTA CANADA

This paper investigates fundamental investment strategies to detect and exploit the public's systematic errors in horse race wager markets. A handicapping model is developed and applied to win-betting in the pari-mutuel system. A multinomial logit model of the horse racing process is posited and estimated on a data base of 200 races. A recently developed procedure for exploiting the information content of rank ordered choice sets is employed to obtain more efficient parameter estimates. The variables in this discrete choice probability model include horse and jockey characteristics, plus several race-specific features. Hold-out sampling procedures are employed to evaluate wagering strategies. A wagering strategy that involves unobtrusive bets, with a side constraint eliminating long-shot betting, appears to offer the promise of positive expected returns, even in the presence of the typically large track take encountered at Thoroughbred racing events.

关键词： multinomial logit model horse race wagering stochastic utility model ranked choice set data discrete choice modeling

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