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net present value as an effective indicator leading to preventive maintenance of port mooring facilities

STRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING 2020年第4期16卷 714-725页

作者： Kawabata, Yuichiro Kato, Ema Yokota, Hiroshi Iwanami, Mitsuyasu Port & Airport Res Inst Dept Struct Engn Yokosuka Kanagawa Japan Hokkaido Univ Fac Engn Sapporo Hokkaido Japan Tokyo Inst Technol Dept Civil Engn Tokyo Japan

net present value (NPV) is proposed as an indicator for decision-making processes entailed in the development of comprehensive maintenance strategies for mooring facilities of a port with consideration of variations in states of facility deterioration. In order to show the validity of the NPV as an effective indicator for a comprehensive maintenance strategy, the NPVs are compared through several case studies to the optimization results via consideration of a commonly used a life-cycle costs (LCC) indicator. In particular, the influence of uncertainty of deterioration progress is studied. The results show that NPV is an effective indicator for the comprehensive maintenance strategy of ports. Additionally, the NPV-optimized maintenance scenario, which indicated that preventative maintenance is the optimum strategy for port facilities, was found to be effective in incorporating uncertain factors, such as the state of deterioration.

关键词： Port facilities port operation maintenance strategy deterioration berth due life-cycle cost net present value optimization

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net present value analysis of the economic production quantity

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IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS 2013年第4期24卷 423-435页

作者： Disney, Stephen M. Warburton, Roger D. H. Zhong, Qing Chang Cardiff Univ Cardiff Business Sch Logist Syst Dynam Grp Cardiff CF10 3EU S Glam Wales Boston Univ Metropolitan Coll Dept Adm Sci Boston MA 02215 USA Univ Sheffield Dept Automat Control & Syst Engn Sheffield S1 3JD S Yorkshire England

Using Laplace transforms we extend the economic production quantity (EPQ) model by analysing cash flows from a net present value (NPV) viewpoint. We obtain an exact expression for the present value of the cash flows in the EPQ problem. From this, we are able to derive the optimal batch size. We obtain insights into the monotonicity and convexity of the present value of each of the cash flows, and show that there is a unique minimum in the present value of the sum of the cash flows in the extended EPQ model. We also obtain exact point solutions at several values in the parameter space. We compare the exact solution to a Maclaurin series expansion and show that serious errors exist with the first-order approximation when the production rate is close to the demand rate. Finally, we consider an alternative formulation of the EPQ model when the opportunity cost of the inventory investment is made explicit.

关键词： economic production quantity net present value Lambert W function Maclaurin series expansion

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net present value analysis to select public R&D programs and valuate expected private sector participation

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APPLIED BIOCHEMISTRY AND BIOTECHNOLOGY 1997年第1期63-5卷 599-607页

作者： Hinman, ND Yancey, MA Center for Renewable Fuels and Biotechnology National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden

One of the main functions of government is to invest taxpayer dollars in projects, programs, and properties that will result in social benefit. Public programs focused on the development of technology are examples of such opportunities. Selecting these programs requires the same investment analysis approaches that private companies and individuals use. Good use of investment analysis approaches to these programs will minimize our tax costs and maximize public benefit from tax dollars invested. This article describes the use of the net present value (NPV) analysis approach to select public R&D programs and valuate expected private sector participation in the programs.

关键词： investment analysis net present value R&D public/private partnerships

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net present value Analysis of Sow Longevity and the Economic Sensitivity of net present value to Changes in Production, Market Price, Feed Cost, and Replacement Gilt Costs in a Farrow-to-Finish Operation

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Professional Animal Scientist 2000年第1期16卷 33-40页

作者： Stalder, K.J. Lacy, R.C. Cross, T.L. Conatser, G.E. Darroch, C.S. Department of Animal Science University of Tennessee Knoxville 37901-1071 TN United States Extension Animal Science - Swine University of Tennessee Knoxville 37901-1071 TN United States Extension Agricultural Economics and Resource Development University of Tennessee Knoxville 37901-1071 TN United States

Historical (1994 to 1998) market hog price, feed costs, and other expenses were combined with average industry production values in an economic analysis of replacement gilt investments in a 600-sow farrow-to-finish operation. Based on historical data, a replacement gilt must remain in the breeding herd for three parities or more to attain a positive net present value (NPV). The earlier (lower parity) a sow reaches a positive NPV, the more profitable the operation. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the impact of assumption changes on the parity in which a positive NPV is attained. Assuming all other items are held constant, an approximate 5% change in number of pigs born alive per litter, market hog price per kilogram, or feed cost per market hog changes the parity in which a positive NPV is attained from parity three to parity two or four, depending on the direction of change. Assuming all other items are constant, a 35% increase in replacement gilt purchase price increases the parity from three to four in which a positive NPV is realized. Similarly, an equity decrease from 50 to 30% in the modeled swine operation also increases the parity in which a positive NPV is attained from three to four. Opportunity exists for commercial swine producers to increase the profitability of their replacement gilt investments by increasing the number of productive parities the sow produces. Swine producers should focus on management and genetic factors to improve sow longevity and hence, the profitability of a replacement gilt investment. © 2000 American Registry of Professional Animal Scientists.

关键词： net present value Sow Longevity Replacement Gilt

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net present value EVALUATION OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN REPEATED REVERSE LOGISTICS

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TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY 2017年第6期23卷 877-894页

作者： Kovacic, Danijel Bogataj, Marija DK Informacijsko Svetovanje Gric 4 SI-1000 Ljubljana Slovenia MEDIFAS Mednarodni Prehod 6 SI-5290 Vrtojba Sempeter Pri Go Slovenia

The paper is based on Grubbstrom's MRP theory previously used in analysis of production processes "under one roof ". This theory has recently been extended to model global supply chains by Bogataj and Grubbstrm, both scientists from the MEDIFAS faculty. Every production cycle is followed by distribution, consumption and recycling activities. In broad supply chains, transportation costs between pairs of activity cells have a significant impact on the overall net present value of the system. Possible flows inside or between subsystems can all be described with input-output matrices H and G. Recently published papers of the above mentioned authors describe the presentation of supply chains in a generalized form. Generalized input and output matrices H(s) . and G(s). hold technical coefficients and lead times. Lead times are split into 2 parts: production and transportation. As presented in the publication of R. W. Grubbstrm, L. Bogataj and M. Bogataj, and further research of these authors, the results of recycling activities in the extended MRP model are the recovered and the waste items, but in their model the recycling of the items is not repeated. Recovered items could be reused several times in future production cycles, reducing the need to purchase new items on the market as considered here. The waste items must be disposed of, requiring environmental taxes which vary among regions, depending on local environmental policy. If recovered, items must be delivered from the recycling facility back to production, and waste items must be sent to landfills. This process requires an expenditure of human resources, and energy at each activity cell plays an important role. In this article we show how the location of recycling facilities, the prices and quantity of energy needed and the environmental taxes can drastically influence the net present value for the entire system. We also present the method for evaluating cases where energy can be recovered during recycling or dec

关键词： energy extended MRP theory reverse logistics supply chain location land use net present value

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Effects of hydraulic retention time on net present value and performance in a membrane bioreactor treating antibiotic production wastewater

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2020年第6期14卷 109-121页

作者： Dawei Yu Jianxing Wang Libin Zheng Qianwen Sui Hui Zhong Meixue Cheng Yuansong Wei State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Department of Water Pollution Control Technology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

A cost sensitivity analysis was performed for an industrial membrane bioreactor to quantify the effects of hydraulic retention times and related operational parameters on *** hydraulic retention times(72-24 h)were subjected to a flat-sheet membrane bioreactor updated from an existing 72 h oxidation ditch treating antibiotic production *** experimental data from the membrane bioreactor,both full-scale(500 m/d)and pilot(1.0 m3/d),were used to calculate the net present value(NPV),incorporating both capital expenditure(CAPEX)and operating *** results showed that the tank cost was estimated above membrane cost in the 38.2%,where capital expenditure contributed 24.2%more than operational *** construction cost was decisive in determining the net present value contributed 62.1%to the capital *** membrane bioreactor has the advantage of a longer lifespan flat-sheet membrane,while flux decline was *** antibiotics decreased to 1.87±0.33 mg/L in the MBR *** upgrade to the membrane bioreactor also benefited further treatments by 10.1%-44.7%lower direct investment.

关键词： Antibiotic production wastewater net present value Membrane bioreactor Hydraulic retention time Pollutant removal

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The Probabilistic Evaluation of net present value of Electric Power Distribution Systems Based on the Kaldor-Hicks Compensation Principle

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 2018年第4期33卷 4488-4495页

作者： Heydt, Gerald T. Arizona State Univ Sch Elect Comp & Energy Engn Tempe AZ 85287 USA

The decision to proceed with a distribution engineering expansion project is often preceded by some form of cost to benefit analysis. The Kaldor-Hicks compensation principle is a criterion that assists in this analysis by the evaluation of net present value over the expected project life. This paper discusses this principle applied to power distribution systems. A probabilistic formulation is proposed to capture uncertainty in cost and benefit data. In effect, the approach models ranges of value of project parameters. While the method does not determine whether to proceed with a given project, it does give a measure of the value of the engineering economic efficiency. The method is especially valuable for cases of "next generation" systems, and this is illustrated in this paper.

关键词： Cost benefit analysis distribution expansion Kaldor-Hicks compensation principle net present value payback period engineering economics power distribution engineering

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Research on economic length of the horizontal section of downhole coaxial heat exchanger geothermal system based on net present value

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH 2022年第5期46卷 6351-6369页

作者： Xiao, Dong Cai, Chun Tang, Haijun Li, Li Hu, Yifan Liu, Jianhong Yang, Ruitao Southwest Petr Univ State Key Lab Oil & Gas Reservoir Geol & Exploita Chengdu 610500 Peoples R China Southwest Petr Univ Petr Engn Sch Chengdu Peoples R China Southwest Petr Univ Sch Econ & Management Chengdu Peoples R China Shaanxi Yanchang Petr Grp Co Shaanxi Yanchang Petr Int Energy & Chem Co Ltd Xian 610500 Peoples R China

Hot dry rocks (HDRs) exhibit wide distribution characteristics and have attracted considerable attention because of their considerable potential for geothermal development. A downhole coaxial heat exchanger geothermal system (DCHEGS) with a horizontal well is a novel and effective method for geothermal development and utilization from HDR. To examine the heat extraction performance, a mathematical model of a DCHEGS was established. This model was extremely accurate and consistent with the experimental test results (relative errors were <8%). By analyzing calculation results, we determined that the heat extraction power increased with the horizontal section length;however, the growth rate decreased. Hence, there must be an economical horizontal section length. Subsequently, to identify the optimal length of horizontal section, an economic evaluation model of a DCHEGS with a horizontal well based on net present value (NPV) was established. Finally, the economic evaluation model was applied using the GR1 Well as an example. The results demonstrated that the project can only be profitable when the horizontal section length of the GR1 Well is between 0 and 4009 m, and the optimal economic length is 1466 m. Thus, in this study, the horizontal well length design method proposed can effectively provide a theoretical support for the practical design and operation of DCHEGS.

关键词： coupling of economy and technology downhole coaxial heat exchanger geothermal system economic length model of horizontal section geothermal energy hot dry rocks net present value

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Maximizing the expected net present value in a project with uncertain cash flows

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EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH 2021年第2期294卷 442-452页

作者： Peymankar, Mahboobeh Davari, Morteza Ranjbar, Mohammad Ferdowsi Univ Mashhad Fac Engn Ind Engn Dept Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Univ Cote dAzur SKEMA Business Sch Lille France

This paper considers the problem of maximizing the expected net present value of a project under uncertain cash flows, which are described by a supporting set of discrete scenarios. While cash flows are often considered more or less stable in countries with stable economy, they can be quite uncertain in countries with financial and/or political crisis. In these countries, cash flows may drastically rise after a certain political event or a financial crisis. Therefore, we assume that the price changes may well occur after a predictable time (e.g., an election or the date on which a deal is agreed or broken). Such an assumption has never been made in project scheduling under uncertainty. We propose two integer linear programming (ILP) formulations and develop two-stage stochastic programming approaches that use Benders decomposition to solve the problem efficiently. Since the number of generated scenarios may be large and thus intractable, we also employ a forward scenario reduction technique to construct a rather tractable set of scenarios. Computational results indicate that the developed Benders-based methods outperform the ILP formulations. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Project scheduling net present value Stochastic programming Benders decomposition

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Comparison of various sources of uncertainty in stand-level net present value estimates

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FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS 2010年第5期12卷 377-386页

作者： Holopainen, Markus Makinen, Antti Rasinmaki, Jussi Hyytiainen, Kari Bayazidi, Saeed Pietila, Ilona Univ Helsinki Dept Forest Resource Management FIN-00014 Helsinki Finland Simosol Oy Riihimaki 11130 Finland MTT Helsinki 00410 Finland

The objective of this study was to compare the relative importance of various sources of uncertainties in determining the net present value of forest stands and forested property. This was achieved by performing stand-level simulations that took into account: i) input data errors (airborne laser-scanning data vs. ocular standwise field inventory data), ii) stochastic future development of timber assortment prices and iii) errors in stand-level growth projection models. The starting point of the study was a simulated forest estate comprising 40 stands of various types sufficiently represented (e.g. with respect to species composition, development class distribution, and site quality). Stochastic timber price models were formulated, employing geometric mean-reverting principles. The results showed that sources of uncertainty all had significant effects on the probability distribution of the net present value of the stand. The relative standard deviations of stand net present values averaged 8% for stochastic timber price, 29% for errors in standwise field inventory data. 26% for errors in airborne laser-scanning data and 33% for errors in growth projection models when applying a 3% discount rate. When all three sources of uncertainty were analysed simultaneously, the highest average standard deviation was 47.4%. Interestingly, errors in the growth projections and the quality of inventory data contributed more to the variation in stand net present value than fluctuation in timber price did, although this result was based on the assumption that the forestry industry maintains its competitiveness in the long run. Our modeling approach made it possible to compare various sources of uncertainty and to set confidence intervals for net present value estimates. This approach can also result in information on which sources of uncertainty are focused. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Forest estate valuation net present value Uncertainty Forest management planning Simulation Growth and yield prediction

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