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A wavelet approach for precursor pattern detection in time series

Journal of Electrical Systems and Information Technology 2018年第3期5卷 337-348页

作者： Md. Shahidul Islam Russel Pears Boris Bacic School of Engineering Computer and Mathematical Sciences Auckland University of Technology Auckland 1010 New Zealand

In the context of electrical power systems, identifying precursors to fluctuations in power generation in advance would enable engineers to put in place measures that mitigate against the effects of such fluctuations. In this research we use the Morlet wavelet to transform a time series defined on electrical power generation frequency which was sampled at intervals of 30 s to identify potential precursor patterns. The power spectrum that results is then used to select high coefficient regions that capture a large faction of the energy in the spectrum. We then subjected the high coefficient regions together with a contrasting low coefficient region to a non-parametric ANOVA test and our results indicate that one high coefficient region dominates by predicting an overwhelming percentage of the variation that occurs during the subsequent fluctuation event. These results suggest that the wavelet is an effective mechanism to identify precursor activity in electricity time series data.

关键词： precursor pattern Frequency fluctuation Morlet wavelet transform Kruskal Wallis test Time series

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Detecting precursor patterns for Frequency Fluctuation in an Electrical Grid 18

Detecting Precursor Patterns for Frequency Fluctuation in an...

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18th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing (SNPD)

作者： Islam, Md. Shahidul Pears, Russel Bacic, Boris Auckland Univ Technol Sch Engn Comp & Math Sci Auckland 1010 New Zealand

ISBN: (纸本)9781509055043

precursor pattern identification addresses the problem of detecting warning signals in data that herald an impending event of extraordinary interest. In the context of electrical power systems, identifying precursors to fluctuations in power generation in advance would enable engineers to put in place measures that mitigate against the effects of such fluctuations. In this research we use the Morlet wavelet to transform a time series defined on electrical power generation frequency which was sampled at intervals of 30 seconds to identify potential precursor patterns. The power spectrum that results is then used to select high coefficient regions that capture a large faction of the energy in the spectrum. We then subjected the high coefficient regions together with a contrasting low coefficient region to a non-parametric ANOVA test and our results indicate that one high coefficient region dominates by predicting an overwhelming percentage of the variation that occurs during the subsequent fluctuation event. These results suggest that the wavelet is an effective mechanism to identify precursor activity in electricity time series data.

关键词： precursor pattern Frequency Fluctuation Wavelet Transform Non-Parametric ANOVA

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Dynamic pattern characteristics of fault deformation and gravity field in the development process of Yongdeng MS=5.8 earthquake

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Acta Seismologica Sinica English Edition 1998年第3期11卷 313-320页

作者： Jiang, Zai-Sen Zhu, Yi-Qing Wang, Qing-Liang Wang, Shuang-Xu Chen, Bing The Second Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center State Seismological Bureau Xi’an China

In this paper, the fault deformation abnormality, dynamic evolution features of gravity and vertical deformation field is the seismogenic process of the Yongdeng, Gansu Province earthquake on July 22, 1995 are studied primarily. There appeared α-β-γ tri-stage anomaly at three sites near the epicenter, and there appeared anomalies of step and sudden jump at more than 10 sites in outer region since 1993. The high value area before shock, coseismic effect and process of recovery aftershock were monitored by portable gravity data. Data reflects the changing process of fault movement from the quasi-linear to the nonlinear in the near source region during seismogenic development of the Yongdeng earthquake and evolution of gravity field from heterogeneity of seismogenic term to quasi-homogeneity of postseismic term. There exists close relationship between strong earthquake and dynamic evolution of regional stress-strain field. Considering all above, the experience and lessons in this medium-short term prediction test are summarized.

关键词： Crustal deformation Gravity field variation precursor pattern Yongdeng earthquake

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Dynamic pattern characteristics of fault deformation and gravity field in the development process of Yongdeng M_S=5.8 earthquake

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1998年第3期11卷 48-55页

作者：江在森祝意青王庆良王双绪陈兵

In this paper, the fault deformation abnormality, dynamic evolution features of gravity and vertical deformation field in the seismogenic process of the Yongdeng, Gansu Province earthquake on July 22, 1995 are studied primarily. There appeared α β γ tri stage anomaly at three sites near the epicenter, and there appeared anomalies of step and sudden jump at more than 10 sites in outer region since 1993. The high value area before shock, coseismic effect and process of recovery aftershock were monitored by portable gravity data. Data reflects the changing process of fault movement from the quasi linear to the nonlinear in the near source region during seismogenic development of the Yongdeng earthquake and evolution of gravity field from heterogeneity of seismogenic term to quasi homogeneity of postseismic term. There exists close relationship between strong earthquake and dynamic evolution of regional stress strain field. Considering all above, the experience and lessons in this medium short term prediction test are summarized.

关键词： Yongdeng earthquake crustal deformation gravity field variation precursor pattern

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