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The multi-objective reliability-based design optimization for structure based on probability and ellipsoidal convex hybrid model

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STRUCTURAL SAFETY 2019年 77卷 48-56页

作者： Liu, Xin Fu, Qing Ye, Nanhai Yin, Lairong Chongqing Univ State Key Lab Mech Transmiss Chongqing 400044 Peoples R China Changsha Univ Sci & Technol Key Lab Safety Design & Reliabil Technol Engn Veh Changsha 410004 Hunan Peoples R China Hunan Univ State Key Lab Adv Design & Mfg Vehicle Body Changsha 410082 Hunan Peoples R China

A multi-objective reliability-based design optimization method is proposed based on probabilistic and ellipsoidal convex hybrid model. With reliability index as the constraint, a three-layer nested multi-objective optimization problem is involved. To reduce the computation costs, an efficient decoupling strategy is presented to transform the original problem into a two-layer nested optimization problem. Then the intergeneration projection genetic algorithm and the micro multi-objective genetic algorithm are employed as inner and outer layer optimization operator to solve the multi-objective optimization problem, respectively. Finally, the present method is applied to three numerical examples and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the present method.

关键词： Multi-objective reliability-based design optimization probability model Ellipsoidal convex model Hybrid reliability analysis Decoupling strategy

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A statistical model to estimate the probability of slip and fall incidents

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SAFETY SCIENCE 2004年第9期42卷 779-789页

作者： Chang, WR Liberty Mutual Res Inst Safety Hopkinton MA 01748 USA

A statistical model to estimate the probability of slip and fall incidents is presented. In estimating such an event, the available friction is usually compared with the required friction for the activities. In the models available in the literature, only mean values were compared or a minimum threshold was used to represent the required friction. In the current model, it is assumed that both the available and required friction coefficients have stochastic distributions. Formulations for a general distribution were developed and are presented. The results generated with the current model are compared with those based on other models using a normal distribution. The results indicate that there could be significant differences between the current model and the existing models in estimating the probability of a slip incident. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： probability model slip estimate required friction coefficient available friction coefficient

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An efficient multi-objective reliability-based design optimization method for structure based on probability and interval hybrid model

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COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING 2022年 392卷 114682-114682页

作者： Liu, Xin Li, Tianrui Zhou, Zhenhua Hu, Lin Changsha Univ Sci & Technol Coll Automot & Mech Engn Changsha 410114 Peoples R China Chongqing Univ State Key Lab Mech Transmiss Chongqing 400044 Peoples R China

An efficient multi-objective reliability-based design optimization (MO-RBDO) method is proposed based on the probability and interval hybrid model. With probability variables coexist with interval variables in MO-RBDO problem, the original MO-RBDO problem could be considered as a three-layer nested multi-objective optimization problem. To reduce computing costs, firstly, an efficient decoupling strategy is developed to transform original three-layer MO-RBDO problem to single-layer optimization problem based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) necessary condition and the second-order fourth moment method. Secondly, a MO-RBDO method based on the adaptive approximation model is proposed for further improve computational efficiency. Then, the multi-objective genetic algorithm is employed to solve the MO-RBDO problem. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are demonstrated by three numerical examples. (C) 2022 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Multi-objective reliability-based design optimization probability model Interval model Decoupling strategy Adaptive approximation model

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Process monitoring method based on vine copula and transfer learning strategy

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COMPUTERS & CHEMICAL ENGINEERING 2025年 192卷

作者： Zhang, Yifan Li, Shaojun East China Univ Sci & Technol Key Lab Smart Mfg Energy Chem Proc Minist Educ Shanghai 200237 Peoples R China

In practical industrial processes, the limited sampling time and other factors result in a scarcity of historical data for certain modes, leading to diminished generalization and accuracy of process monitoring models. To solve this problem, a process monitoring method based on vine copula-based dependence description (VCDD) and transfer learning strategy (TLVCDD) is proposed in this study. The proposed method constructs a VCDD model by utilizing target domain data and subsequently selects suitable candidate sample groups from the abundant source domain data based on this model. Candidate sample groups are transferred sequentially according to their priorities, which are quantified based on the maximum mean discrepancies between candidate sample groups and the target domain data. The VCDD model exhibiting the most superior overall performance during the transfer process is chosen and employed for online process monitoring. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical example and Tennessee Eastman (TE) process.

关键词： Vine copula Process monitoring Transfer learning probability model

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An attempt to model the probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 production of Aspergillus flavus under non-isothermal conditions in pistachio nuts

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FOOD MICROBIOLOGY 2015年 51卷 117-129页

作者： Aldars-Garcia, Laila Ramos, Antonio J. Sanchis, Vicente Marin, Sonia Univ Lleida Agrotecnio Ctr Dept Food Technol XaRTA UTPV Lleida Spain

Human exposure to aflatoxins in foods is of great concern. The aim of this work was to use predictive mycology as a strategy to mitigate the aflatoxin burden in pistachio nuts postharvest. The probability of growth and aflatoxin B-1 (AFB1) production of aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus, isolated from pistachio nuts, under static and non-isothermal conditions was studied. Four theoretical temperature scenarios, including temperature levels observed in pistachio nuts during shipping and storage, were used. Two types of inoculum were included: a cocktail of 25 A. flavus isolates and a single isolate inoculum. Initial water activity was adjusted to 0.87. Logistic models, with temperature and time as explanatory variables, were fitted to the probability of growth and AFB1 production under a constant temperature. Subsequently, they were used to predict probabilities under non-isothermal scenarios, with levels of concordance from 90 to 100% in most of the cases. Furthermore, the presence of AFB1 in pistachio nuts could be correctly predicted in 70-81 % of the cases from a growth model developed in pistachio nuts, and in 67-81% of the cases from an AFB1 model developed in pistachio agar. The information obtained in the present work could be used by producers and processors to predict the time for AFB1 production by A. flavus on pistachio nuts during transport and storage. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Predictive mycology Aspergillus flavus Food safety Pistachio Temperature Non-isothermal conditions probability model

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Misconceptions of probability: An experiment with a small-group, activity-based, model building approach to introductory probability at the college level

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Educational Studies in Mathematics 1977年第3期8卷 295-316页

作者： Shaughnessy, J.Michael Oregon State University Corvallis United States

The day-by-day observations made by the experimenter during one of the activity-based classes indicate that college students can learn to discover some elementary probability models and formulas for themselves while working on probability experiments in small groups. Furthermore, the effects of sample size upon measures of central tendency and variability can be learned by students working on activities such as those developed for the experimental course in this study. Making guesses for the probability of events and checking guesses with a hand-held calculator seems to help college students to be more cautious about probability estimates, and helps to make them aware about some of their own misconceptions about probability. Small-group problem solving, keeping a log of all class work and activities, and investigating the misuses of statistics all appeared to have a positive effect upon college students' attitudes towards mathematics, as indicated in the questionnaires filled out by the subjects in the experimental sections. The present results of this study support the hypotheses of Kahneman and Tversky [10, 12] which claimed that combinatorially naive college students rely upon availability and representativeness to estimate the likelihood of events. Kahneman and Tversky were skeptical about the possibility of helping students to overcome their reliance upon availability and representativeness. The results on the posttest in this study suggest that the manner in which college students learn probability makes a difference in their ability to overcome misconceptions that arise from availability and representativeness. Mere exposure to probability concepts is not sufficient to overcome certain misconceptions of probability. Fischbein [9] notes that the "synthesis between the necessary and the possible-which is the basis of probabilistic thinking-does not in fact take place spontaneously ...." He claims that science education emphasizes only the deterministic aspect,

关键词： College Student Science Education probability model model Building probability Estimate

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Study on Optical Dot Gain model Based on Point Spread and probability Methods

Study on Optical Dot Gain Model Based on Point Spread and Pr...

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3rd International Conference on Frontiers of Manufacturing and Design Science (ICFMD 2012)

作者： Xu, Junfei Xu, Jinlin Xu, Yongchi Zhejiang Ind & Trade Vocat Coll Res Ctr Printing Technol 17 Fudong Rd Wenzhou 325003 Peoples R China Xian Univ Technol Sch Printing & Packing Engn Xian 710048 Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9783037855782

Optical dot gain is the key point of halftone reconstruction study, and has always been a meaningful topic of theoretical study. The Yule-Nielsen formula is by far the most widely used research method of optical dot gain. However, solving the Yule-Nielsen parameter n remains a difficult problem. This paper disregards solving for the Yule-Nielsen parameter n, analyzes the light scattering and osmotic effect of halftone presswork, deduces the exact expressions of blank area of presswork, and determines the reflectivity of the dot part and halftone presswork according to the point spread function and probability method. Furthermore, this paper analyzes how the optical dot gain depends on the dot area coverage of presswork, ink layer transmittivity, and paper-based spectral reflectivity. In addition, a new algorithm model for optical dot gain is established. By employing the Clapper-Yule model to calculate the spectral transmittance of printing ink and comparing it with the practical measured spectral reflectivity of the halftone presswork proof, the accuracy of the model established in this paper is fully verified.

关键词： point spread function probability model optical dot gain Murray-Davis method

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probability modelS FOR PETROLEUM INVESTMENT DECISIONS

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JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY 1970年第5期22卷 543-&页

作者： SMITH, MB (U. of Houston)

The time, effort, and money required to develop a computer program for a general probabilistic economic model are great, but a single investment decision made more sound by the use of the model can more than justify the expense. Introduction When petroleum investments are viewed in perspective, it is possible to define four distinct environments for exploration and production decisions. From the inception through the final period these four environments can be identified as the trend, prospect, development, and production phases. Early exploration decisions concerning geological and geophysical reconnaissance projects are investigated with the entire trend as the basic unit. After prospects have been defined, the trend phase ends and the prospect phase begins. This phase, which continues until the exploratory test is drilled, is the environment in which various land trading and drilling decisions are made. The development phase, which is contingent upon a discovery, is the time when investments for field wells are considered. Decisions relating to the sale or acquisition of producing properties characterize the production phase, which extends to abandonment. production phase, which extends to abandonment. The risk and uncertainty associated with petroleum decision-making decrease as the environment changes from the trend to the prospect to the development and on to the production period, until at abandonment absolute certainty exists. Unfortunately, many of the most important decisions in petroleum exploration and production must be made during the early phases when dry-hole risk and uncertainty about economic factors are greatest. In order to quantify risk and uncertainty, four stochastic models, one for each of the four periods, can be defined. Although the first paper describing probability methods for petroleum investment decisions was published more than 30 years ago, the evolution of published more than 30 years ago, the evolution of techniques that can be app

关键词： Artificial Intelligence Upstream Oil & Gas probabilistic economic model random variable Project economics calculation prospect asset and portfolio management probability model probability function Asset and Portfolio Management Project economics/valuation

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probability models for offshore structural response due to Morison wave loading - Part II: Inertia-only and total responses

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OCEAN ENGINEERING 2007年第17-18期34卷 2289-2299页

作者： Najafian, G. Univ Liverpool Dept Engn Liverpool L69 3GQ Merseyside England

Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment and hence the probability distribution of their response to wave loading is a minimum requirement for efficient probabilistic analysis of these structures. Due to nonlinearity of Morison wave loading and also due to intermittency of wave loading on members in the splash zone, the response is often non-Gaussian. Part I of this paper was devoted to the development and validation of a new probability model for drag-only responses (i.e. responses due to the drag component of Morison wave loading). This part is devoted to the development and validation of new probability models for both inertia-only and total responses. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： offshore structures response probability distribution wave loading probability model Morison's equation inertia forces

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Fast and Robust Object Tracking via probability Continuous Outlier model

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON IMAGE PROCESSING 2015年第12期24卷 5166-5176页

作者： Wang, Dong Lu, Huchuan Bo, Chunjuan Dalian Univ Technol Sch Informat & Commun Engn Fac Elect Informat & Elect Engn Dalian 116024 Peoples R China Nanjing Univ State Key Lab Novel Software Technol Nanjing 210093 Jiangsu Peoples R China Dalian Nationalities Univ Coll Electromech Engn Dalian 116600 Peoples R China

This paper presents a novel visual tracking method based on linear representation. First, we present a novel probability continuous outlier model (PCOM) to depict the continuous outliers within the linear representation model. In the proposed model, the element of the noisy observation sample can be either represented by a principle component analysis subspace with small Guassian noise or treated as an arbitrary value with a uniform prior, in which a simple Markov random field model is adopted to exploit the spatial consistency information among outliers (or inliners). Then, we derive the objective function of the PCOM method from the perspective of probability theory. The objective function can be solved iteratively by using the outlier-free least squares and standard max-flow/min-cut steps. Finally, for visual tracking, we develop an effective observation likelihood function based on the proposed PCOM method and background information, and design a simple update scheme. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations demonstrate that our tracker achieves considerable performance in terms of both accuracy and speed.

关键词： Object tracking linear representation outlier handling probability model

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