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process-based modeling of Ecosystem-Level Monoterpene From a Japanese Larch (Larix kaempferi) Forest

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES 2024年第10期129卷

作者： Chen, Zhanzhuo Kato, Tomomichi Ito, Akihiko Miyauchi, Tatsuya Takahashi, Yoshiyuki Tang, Jing Hokkaido Univ Grad Sch Global Food Resources Sapporo Japan Univ Copenhagen Ctr Volatile Interact VOLT Dept Biol Copenhagen Denmark Hokkaido Univ Res Fac Agr Sapporo Japan Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES Earth Syst Div Tsukuba Japan Univ Tokyo Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci Tokyo Japan

Globally, the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) by plants represents the dominant source of volatile organic compounds emitted to the atmosphere. Monoterpenes, as the major BVOC group, can contribute to forming secondary organic aerosols and influence cloud properties. In this study, we developed a process-based monoterpene module in the Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT) model by considering the production, storage, and emission of monoterpene as three main processes. We further evaluated the modeled monoterpene emissions against the ecosystem-level observation data at a half-hour scale at a Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi) forest site on Mt. Fuji, Japan. The VISIT model performed with relatively higher accuracy with a Willmott's index of agreement at 0.61, a mean bias error (MBE) at 0.29, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) at 0.43, comparable to that of Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature model with a Willmott's index of agreement at 0.63, a MBE at 0.40, and a RMSE at 0.54. In a long-term simulation under high CO2 emission scenarios, the ratio between monoterpene emission and gross primary production exhibited a stronger correlation with CO2 concentration than temperature. Our study provides a process-based modeling approach for more accurately simulating monoterpene emissions from Japanese larch.

关键词： process-based modeling monoterpene emission Japanese larch

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A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems

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WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 2012年第9期48卷

作者： Montanari, Alberto Koutsoyiannis, Demetris Univ Bologna Dept Civil Environm & Mat Engn DICAM IT-40136 Bologna Italy Natl Tech Univ Athens Dept Water Resources & Environm Engn Zografos Greece

We present a probability based theoretical scheme for building process-based models of uncertain hydrological systems, thereby unifying hydrological modeling and uncertainty assessment. Uncertainty for the model output is assessed by estimating the related probability distribution via simulation, thus shifting from one to many applications of the selected hydrological model. Each simulation is performed after stochastically perturbing input data, parameters and model output, this latter by adding random outcomes from the population of the model error, whose probability distribution is conditioned on input data and model parameters. Within this view randomness, and therefore uncertainty, is treated as an inherent property of hydrological systems. We discuss the related assumptions as well as the open research questions. The theoretical framework is illustrated by presenting real-world and synthetic applications. The relevant contribution of this study is related to proposing a statistically consistent simulation framework for uncertainty estimation which does not require model likelihood computation and simplification of the model structure. The results show that uncertainty is satisfactorily estimated although the impact of the assumptions could be significant in conditions of data scarcity.

关键词： hydrology process-based modeling stochastic modeling uncertainty

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Long-term leaf C:N ratio change under elevated CO₂ and nitrogen deposition in China: Evidence from observations and process-based modeling

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021年 800卷 149591-149591页

作者： Sheng, Mingyang Tang, Jinyun Yang, Dawen Fisher, Joshua B. Wang, Han Kattge, Jens Tsinghua Univ Dept Hydraul Engn State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn Beijing Peoples R China Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div Climate Sci Dept Berkeley CA USA CALTECH Jet Prop Lab Pasadena CA USA Max Planck Inst Biogeochem D-07745 Jena Germany

Climate change, elevating atmosphere CO2 (eCO(2)) and increased nitrogen deposition (iNDEP) are altering the biogeochemical interactions between plants, microbes and soils, which further modify plant leaf carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry and their carbon assimilation capability. Many field experiments have observed large sensitivity of leaf C:N ratio to eCO(2) and iNDEP. However, the large-scale pattern of this sensitivity is still unclear, because eCO(2) and iNDEP drive leaf C:N ratio toward opposite directions, which are further compounded by the complex processes of nitrogen acquisition and plant-and-microbial nitrogen competition. Here, we attempt to map the leaf C:N ratio spatial variation in the past 5 decades in China with a combination of data-driven model and process-based modeling. These two approaches showed consistent results. Over different regions, we found that leaf C:N ratio had significant but uneven changes between 2 time periods (1960-1989 and 1990-2015): a 5% +/- 8% increase for temperate grasslands in northern China, a 3% +/- 6% increase for boreal grasslands in western China, and by contrast, a 7% +/- 6% decrease for temperate forests in southern China, and a 3% +/- 5% decrease for boreal forests in northeastern China. Additionally, the structural equation models indicated that the leaf C:N change was sensitive to ANDEP, CO2 A and AMAT rather than MAP and ecosystem types. process- based modeling suggested that iNDEP was the main source of soil mineral nitrogen change, dominating leaf C: N ratio change in most areas in China, while eCO(2) led to leaf C:N ratio increase in low iNDEP area. This study also indicates that the long-term leaf C: N ratio acclimation was dominated by climate constraint, especially temperature, but was constrained by soil N availability over decade scale. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Leaf C:N ratio Data-driven modeling process-based modeling Nitrogen deposition

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How process-based modeling can help plant breeding deal with G x E x M interactions

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FIELD CROPS RESEARCH 2022年第0期283卷

作者： Hajjarpoor, Amir Nelson, William C. D. Vadez, Vincent Univ Montpellier Inst Rech Dev IRD UMR DIADE Montpellier France Int Crops Res Inst Semi Arid Trop Bulawayo Zimbabwe Int Crops Res Inst Semi Arid Trop Patancheru India

Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management (GxExM) interactions represent many unknowns for crop improvement programs, which hampers the development of improved varieties, especially for highly variable environments like those limited by rainfall. While breeding programs have traditionally used statistical tools to deal with these interactions, process-based crop modeling has recently become an alternative and powerful approach. Overall, while statistical methods remain the most optimal solution to deal with GxExM interactions when many production datasets across time and space are available from multi-environment trials (MET), in silico methods like crop modeling can be used if such data is lacking, or if MET data don't cover the entire target region. Yet, despite several reviews on the potential uses of process-based modeling tools to aid such issues, their practical use in helping breeding programs is still in its infancy. After exposing the pros and cons of process-based modeling, this paper presents the step-by-step process that would allow breeding programs to harness this tool to help guide their breeding decisions. We also argue that the issue of GxExM interactions should be tackled in a co-construction process, involving breeders, agronomists, extensionists, and modelers from the beginning, and this would bring crop models one step closer to being used to help make plant breeding decisions.

关键词： Crop improvement Multi-Environment Trials (MET) process-based modeling Statistical analysis Target Population of Environment (TPE)

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process-based morphodynamic modeling of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale: Controls on estuarine evolution and future trends

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GEOMORPHOLOGY 2017年 290卷 347-364页

作者： Luan, Hua Long Ding, Ping Xing Wang, Zheng Bing Ge, Jian Zhong East China Normal Univ State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res Shanghai 200062 Peoples R China Delft Univ Technol Fac Civil Engn & Geosci NL-2628 CN Delft Netherlands Deltares NL-2600 MH Delft Netherlands

Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958-1978), an erosion period (1986-1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002-2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100 Mt yr(-1)) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system an

关键词： process-based modeling Decadal morphological evolution Variations of river inputs Multiple sediment fractions Yangtze Estuary

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modeling for sustainable groundwater management: Interdependence and potential complementarity of process-based, data-driven and system dynamics approaches

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024年 951卷 175491页

作者： Secci, Daniele Saysel, Ali Kerem Uygur, Izel Yologlu, Onur Cem Zanini, Andrea Copty, Nadim K. Univ Parma Dept Engn & Architecture Parma Italy Bogazici Univ Inst Environm Sci TR-34342 Istanbul Turkiye Univ Bergen Dept Geog Syst Dynam Grp N-5020 Bergen Norway

Groundwater systems are vast natural water reservoirs used to support human water demands and ecosystem services. Various modeling approaches have been developed to help manage these complex highly-dynamic systems. This paper discusses the strengths and limitations of three modeling approaches, namely: processbased, data-driven and system dynamics modeling. For demonstration purposes, the three modeling approaches are applied to the Konya Closed Basin, a large agricultural region with semi-dry climate located in central Turkey. process-based modeling is grounded in the theory-based representation of the governing processes but is somewhat limited by the computational effort and the difficulty of defining the required input parameters that characterize the heterogeneous aquifer system. process-based models are shown to be powerful tools for resource management purposes provided climatic and water demand scenarios are accurately defined. Data-driven models are efficient tools for the management of groundwater resources but are highly dependent on the availability of large training data sets encompassing the spectrum of possible system responses. The high efficiency of surrogate modeling approaches makes them ideal tools for incorporation into applications such as real-time decision support systems and digital twin platforms. System dynamics modeling examines the groundwater exploitation problem within a socio-economic context that involves multiple stakeholders and their decision making. It combines groundwater flow models with socio-economics and endogenous decision rules to conduct scenario analysis and support policy development. The analyses and model demonstrations presented in this paper underscore the interconnectedness and complementarity of these three modeling approaches and the need for more integrated use of these modeling approaches for enhanced multi-sectoral management of groundwater systems.

关键词： process-based modeling System dynamics modeling Data-driven modeling Water resources management Irrigated agriculture

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The octoPus: An open-source software for supporting farmers in the control of grapevine downy mildew

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SOFTWAREX 2025年 30卷

作者： Bregaglio, Simone Del Cavallo, Eleonora Ascari, Lorenzo Rossi, Eugenio CREA Council Agr Res & Econ Res Ctr Agr & Environm Rome Italy Agri2000 NET I-40013 Bologna Italy

Achieving the European Green Deal objectives necessitates adopting Integrated Pest Management practices as the standard. The limited availability of open-source software for predicting crop fungal diseases hinders European farmers and extension services from tailoring crop protection strategies based on weather conditions favorable for infections. Here, we introduce the octoPus, a free digital tool featuring an ensemble of models predicting grapevine downy mildew outbreaks, enhanced by a machine learning algorithm and a large language model, aimed at providing science-based and easy-to-interpret decision support. The octoPus can be adapted to different scenarios and extended with additional models by third parties. With a focus on open access and code sharing, the octoPus promotes a transparent and informed approach to designing sustainable crop protection strategies.

关键词： Plant protection Large language model Random forest process-based modeling Integrated pest management

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Combined effects of porosity, tortuosity and pore water composition on electrokinetic transport dynamics in porous media

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ELECTROCHIMICA ACTA 2025年 524卷

作者： Gallo, Andrea Sprocati, Riccardo Islam, Kanij Tanjima Rolle, Massimo Tech Univ Denmark Dept Environm Engn Bldg 115 DK-2800 Lyngby Denmark Tech Univ Darmstadt Inst Appl Geosci Dept Mat & Geosci Schnittspahnstr 9 D-64287 Darmstadt Germany

Electrokinetic (EK) techniques allow remarkable enhancement of mass transfer processes in porous media. Therefore, EK approaches have great potential for a wide range of subsurface applications since they provide effective delivery of amendments, mobilization and removal of contaminants from soils and groundwater, as well as the recovery of valuable resources such as metals and rare earth elements. However, electrokinetic transport is governed by a complex interplay of flow and transport processes, electrostatic forces, and chemical reactions, all of which are influenced by various physical and chemical parameters of subsurface porous media. This study proposes an approach to determine the electrical tortuosity of granular porous media and investigates the effects of porosity, tortuosity, and water composition and ionic strength on electrokinetic transport dynamics in porous media, using a combination of experimental data and process-based numerical simulations. Our results show that the tortuosity values obtained from electrical conductivity measurements provide reliable estimates to be used for predicting electromigration transport velocities, and that incorporating non-ideal solution behavior and activity coefficients is important for accurate predictions of electrokinetic transport. We also highlight intricate interactions among porosity, tortuosity, ionic strength, and their collective impact on tracer mobility over time. In this context, process-based modeling performed with a COMSOL-PHREEQC coupling was essential to interpret the experimental observations and to quantify the effects and relative influences of physico-chemical, hydraulic, and electrostatic factors. Our findings hold significant implications for the design and optimization of electrokinetic approaches in a wide range of subsurface applications.

关键词： Electrokinetic transport Tortuosity Activity coefficients Laboratory experiments process-based modeling

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Model-assisted analysis on the response of tomato fruit growth to source-sink ratio regulated by water and nitrogen

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AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 2025年 307卷

作者： Zhou, Huiping Chen, Jinliang Kang, Shaozhong State Key Lab Efficient Utilizat Agr Water Resourc Beijing 100083 Peoples R China Natl Field Sci Observat & Res Stn Efficient Water Wuwei 733009 Peoples R China Beijing Forestry Univ Sch Grassland Sci Beijing 100083 Peoples R China

Water and nitrogen (N) are essential factors affecting the tomato plant-fruit system. However, little is known about to what extent water and N could regulate the water and carbon fluxes between the source-sink system, thus influencing fruit growth. In this study, the source-sink ratio (Rss) was proposed and then related to water and N supply by a WN-Jensen function, according to the experimental observations from tomatoes grown under various water and N conditions. A process-based model was applied to investigate the effects of water and N supply on fruit growth through modifying one of the major model inputs, the sucrose concentration in phloem solution (Cp), which was assumed to be proportional to Rss. The model was then assessed with the data sets from tomatoes grown under different water and N conditions. The results showed that, N deficit and water stress at fruit early /whole growth stage had significant limitation on plant and fruit growth, together with low stem water potential and water consumption. The dynamics of fruit growth were better simulated by the model when the effects of water and N on source-sink regulation were taken into consideration through modifying Cp. Compared to the original model simulation, MAE and RRMSE of fruit growth prediction decreased by up to 82.0% and 79.9%. The simulation efficiency of fruit fresh and dry weights was in the range of 77.4 %-96.4 % and 72.9 %-92.9 % by the modified model, respectively. Model-assisted analysis showed that water supply could be reduced by 11.9%, 27.0% and 41.1 % at fruit early, middle and late stage together with a reduction of 27.5% N application (saving investment of 131 $/ha), while ensuring the same fruit growth by considering water and nitrogen regulation on source-sink relation.

关键词： Fruit growth Water stress Nitrogen Source-sink ratio process-based modeling Solanum lycopersicum

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Real time forecasting in the coastal zone: Stream power in the lower Mississippi River

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JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 2025年 57卷

作者： Manuel, Laura Meselhe, Ehab Hu, Kelin van Loenen, Arnejan Blokhuijsen, Thies Beg, Md Nazmul Azim Tulane Univ Tulane LA USA Deltares Delft Netherlands

Study region: This study details the development of a real time forecasting system for the coastal zone of the Northern Gulf of Mexico providing a twice daily, ten-day forecast of two-dimensional hydrodynamics. The Mississippi River Delta is the primary entrance to over 2300 miles of commercial waterway and faces year-round dredging and evolving unregulated natural outlets. The provision of real time forecast data is becoming increasingly important for navigation and various ecosystem services in the Gulf region. Study focus: Advances in hydrologic forecasting are swiftly progressing due to advances in computing technology, modeling techniques, and data availability. However, coastal zones remain challenging for forecasting due to the complexity of coastal processes governing the dynamics in these regions. A promising solution to predicting coastal conditions is the development of process-based modeling approaches that represent the transition zone, operating in a forecasting mode. New hydrological insights for the region: Primary outputs of the forecasting system, which are not produced by public agencies at the time of this study, include the provision of reach scale stream power forecasts for the Lower Mississippi River profile from Baton Rouge, LA to the Gulf of Mexico and detailed forecasts of flow partitioning among the natural outlets near the Mississippi River Delta. This study demonstrates a forecasting system using a high-resolution model with functionalities that open services to groups besides traditional early warning users.

关键词： Real time forecasting Gulf of Mexico Lower Mississippi River process-based modeling Coastal zone forecasts Stream power

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