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process-based modeling OF AMMONIA AND NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS FROM OPEN-LOT BEEF AND DAIRY FACILITIES

TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE 2015年第3期58卷 827-846页

作者： Bonifacio, H. F. Rotz, C. A. Leytem, A. B. Waldrip, H. M. Todd, R. W. ARS USDA Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Unit University Pk PA 16802 USA ARS USDA Northwest Irrigat & Soils Res Lab Kimberly ID USA ARS USDA Conservat & Prod Res Lab Bushland TX USA

Airborne emissions, such as ammonia (NH3) and nitrous oxide (N2O), vary considerably among open-lot beef and dairy operations as influenced by climate and manure pack conditions. Because of the challenges with direct measurement, process-based modeling is a recommended approach for estimating airborne emissions from animal feeding operations, such as open lots. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM), a whole-farm simulation model for crop, dairy, and beef operations, was previously used (ver. 4.0) to simulate NH3 emissions from open lots and performed well in representing emissions for two beef cattle feedyards in Texas. However, the previous model was found to perform poorly in predicting NH3 emissions measured at two open-lot dairies in Idaho, so further work was done to better represent the effects of climate on lot and manure pack conditions and to integrate better models for nitrification and denitrification processes. The revised model (ver. 4.1) appropriately predicted NH3 emissions for the two Texas beef cattle feedyards, with model predictions having 59% and 81% agreement with measured daily emissions at each lot. Compared to the previous version, the revised model performed better in simulating NH3 emissions for the Idaho open-lot dairies, with 56% to 74% agreement between predicted and measured daily NH3 emissions. For an Idaho dairy with a freestall barn and open lot, the revised model simulated NH3 emissions with 92% agreement between predicted and measured values. based on measurements obtained at two of the Idaho dairies, IFSM also predicted daily N2O emissions with good agreement (64% to 80%) to measured values. Hence, IFSM can be used to estimate open-lot emissions of NH3 and N2O along with other aspects of performance, environmental impact, and economics of cattle feeding operations in different climatic regions. The model provides a tool for evaluating management strategies to mitigate emissions and improve the sustainability of beef and dairy pr

关键词： Ammonia emission Feedyard IFSM Nitrous oxide emission Open lot process-based modeling

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process-based modeling of tree-ring formation and its relationships with climate on the Tibetan Plateau

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DENDROCHRONOLOGIA 2017年 42卷 31-41页

作者： He, Minhui Shishov, Vladimir Kaparova, Nazgul Yang, Bao Braeuning, Achim Griessinger, Jussi Chinese Acad Sci Northwest Inst Eco Environm & Resources Key Lab Desert & Desertificat Lanzhou Gansu Peoples R China Siberian Fed Univ Math Methods & Informat Technol Dept L Prushinskoi St 2 Krasnoyarsk 660075 Russia SB RAS VN Sukachev Inst Forest Lab Tree Ring Struct Krasnoyarsk 660036 Russia Univ Erlangen Nurnberg Inst Geog D-91054 Erlangen Germany

Response of climate warming on tree-ring formation has attracted much attention during recent years. However, most studies are based on statistical analysis, lacking understanding of tree-physiological processes, especially in the mountainous regions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Herein, we firstly use an updated new version of the tree-ring process-based Vaganov-Shashkin model (VS-oscilloscope) to simulate tree ring formation and its relationships with climate factors during the past six decades. Our analyses covered 341 sampled trees growing within elevations ranging from 2750 to 4575 m a.s.l. at five sampling sites across the TP. Simulated tree-ring width series are significantly (p <0.01) correlated with actual tree ring width chronologies during their common interval periods. Starting dates of tree-ring formation are determined by temperature at all five sampling sites. After the initiation of tree stem cambial activity, soil moisture content has a significant effect on tree radial growth. Ending dates of cambial activity are driven by temperature over the whole study region. Simulated results indicate differences between wide and narrow tree-rings are mostly induced by soil moisture content, especially during the first half of the growing season, when effects from temperature variations are minor. Interestingly, we detected significantly (p <0.001) increased relative growth rates due to higher soil moisture content after the year 1985 at the five sampling sites. However, the variability of mean relative growth rates due to temperature is negligible before and after that. based on the successful application of VS-oscilloscope modeling on the high-elevation tree stands on the TP, our study provides a new perspective on tree radial growth process and their varying relationships to climate factors during the past six decades. (C) 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

关键词： Tree-ring formation Soil moisture content Temperature process-based modeling VS-oscilloscope Tibetan Plateau

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process-based modeling of species' distributions: What limits temperate tree species' range boundaries?

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ECOLOGY 2007年第9期88卷 2280-2291页

作者： Morin, Xavier Augspurger, Carol Chuine, Isabelle CNRS Equipe BIOFLUX Ctr Ecol Fonct & Evolut F-34293 Montpellier 5 France Univ Illinois Dept Plant Biol Urbana IL 61801 USA

Niche-based models are widely used to understand what environmental factors determine species' distributions, but they do not provide a clear framework to study the processes involved in defining species' ranges. Here we used a process-based model to identify these processes and to assess the potential distribution of 17 North American boreal/temperate tree species. Using input of only climate and soil properties, the model reproduced the 17 species' distributions accurately. Our results allowed us to identify the climatic factors as well as the biological processes involved in limiting species' ranges. The model showed that climatic constraints limit species' distributions mainly through their impact on phenological processes, *** through their impact on drought and frost mortality. The northern limit of species' ranges appears to be caused mainly by the inability to undergo full fruit ripening and/or flowering, while the southern limit is caused by the inability to flower or by frost injury to flowers. These findings about the ecological processes shaping tree species' distribution represent a crucial step toward obtaining a more complete picture of the potential impact of climate on species' ranges.

关键词： climate fundamental niche geographical distribution limiting factors North America phenology process-based modeling temperate trees

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process-based modeling of temperature and water profiles in the seedling recruitment zone: Part I. Model validation

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AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2014年 188卷 89-103页

作者： Bullied, W. John Flerchinger, Gerald N. Bullock, Paul R. Van Acker, Rene C. Univ Guelph Dept Plant Agr Guelph ON N1G 2W1 Canada USDA ARS Northwest Watershed Res Ctr Boise ID 83712 USA Univ Manitoba Dept Soil Sci Winnipeg MB R3T 2N2 Canada

process-based modeling provides greater spatial and temporal information of the soil environment in the shallow seedling recruitment zone across field topography where measurements of soil temperature and water may not sufficiently describe the zone. Hourly temperature and water profiles within the 75 mm recruitment zone for 75 days after seeding were simulated for Canadian Prairie conditions from the process-based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model using local and non-local microclimatic data. Measured and modeled soil cover and spring wheat vegetative cover were used to parameterize the model. Heat and water transfer was simulated through surface residue, early vegetation and soil. Simulations were evaluated using model efficiency, root mean square deviation, and components of mean squared error. The greatest amount of error in simulated soil temperature was lack of correlation in the fluctuation pattern over time, followed by bias of the simulation. Soil temperature simulations had model efficiency of 0.87, overestimation of 0.4 degrees C, and a RMSD of 2.1 degrees C averaged across all topographical factors and soil depths. Simulations of soil water had low model efficiency and RMSD of 0.55 MPa. Average absolute bias for soil water was 0.27 MPa which reflected predominantly positive bias at the soil surface and 0-25 mm soil layer and negative bias in the 25-50 and 50-75 mm soil layers. process-based modeling using microclimatic information was shown to provide representative simulations of the soil environment for all depths of the seedling recruitment zone. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Microclimate process-based modeling Seedling recruitment zone SHAW model Soil temperature Soil water

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Improving real-time forecasting of bay water quality by integrating in-situ monitoring, machining learning, and process-based modeling

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Journal of Environmental Management 2025年 386卷 125816页

作者： Xiong, Rui Xiong, Jianzhi Zheng, Yi Zhang, Jingjie Han, Feng Lu, Haiyan Zheng, Yan Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China Guangzhou510611 China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen518055 China Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Research Center Pearl River Valley and South China Sea Ecology and Environment Administration Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China Guangzhou510611 China Shenzhen Municipal Engineering Lab of Environmental IoT Technologies Southern University of Science and Technology Guangdong Shenzhen China State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun130102 China

Frequent occurrences of disasters such as red tides significantly threaten bay ecosystems, making near real-time water quality forecasting crucial for disaster warning and decision-making. Conventional techniques, such as process-based modeling and in-situ monitoring, struggle to achieve this for the entire bay region when applied independently. This study proposes a hybrid approach that integrates in-situ monitoring, process-based modeling, and machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. The feasibility of the approach was validated using Shenzhen Bay, a cross-boundary bay co-administered by Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as a testbed. ML models exhibited superior performance for location-specific forecasting, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.90, 0.84, 0.85, and 0.73 for dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, respectively. Forecasting accuracy declined with longer lead times. Additionally, this study developed a dual-clustering method to optimize the selection of monitoring locations, minimizing the number of sites while effectively capturing the water quality across the entire bay. The results suggest that a monitoring network consisting of just two locations can adequately represent the overall water quality conditions within Shenzhen Bay. Using output from the Delft-3D model built for Shenzhen Bay, ML-based surrogate models successfully extended water quality forecasting from the two strategically selected locations to the entire bay area, with NSE values exceeding 0.8 in most regions. The hybrid approach provides a methodological foundation for achieving near real-time water quality forecasting across the entire bay areas, contributing to maintaining water security and preserving valuable ecosystem services in a rapidly changing environment. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

关键词： In-situ monitoring Machine learning process-based modeling Short-term forecasting Surrogate modeling Water quality

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Nature-based solutions as buffers against coastal compound flooding: Exploring potential framework for process-based modeling of hazard mitigation

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024年 938卷 173529页

作者： Radfar, Soheil Mahmoudi, Sadaf Moftakhari, Hamed Meckley, Trevor Bilskie, Matthew V. Collini, Renee Alizad, Karim Cherry, Julia A. Moradkhani, Hamid Univ Alabama Ctr Complex Hydrosyst Res Tuscaloosa AL 35487 USA Univ Alabama Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn Tuscaloosa AL USA Natl Ctr Coastal Ocean Sci NOAA Ocean Serv Silver Spring MD USA Univ Georgia Coll Engn Athens GA 99164 USA Water Inst Community Resilience Ctr Baton Rouge LA USA K N Toosi Univ Technol Fac Civil Engn Tehran Iran Univ Alabama Dept Biol Sci Tuscaloosa AL USA

As coastal regions face escalating risks from flooding in a changing climate, Nature -based Solutions (NbS) have garnered attention as promising adaptation measures to mitigate the destructive impacts of coastal flooding. However, the challenge of compound flooding, which involves the combined effects of multiple flood drivers, demands a deeper understanding of the efficacy of NbS against this complex phenomenon. This manuscript reviews the literature on process -based modeling of NbS for mitigating compound coastal flooding and identifies knowledge gaps to enhance future research efforts. We used an automated search strategy within the SCOPUS database, followed by a screening process that ultimately resulted in 141 publications assessing the functionality of NbS against coastal flooding. Our review identified a dearth of research (9 %) investigating the performance of NbS against compound flooding scenarios. We examined the challenges and complexities involved in modeling such scenarios, including hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecological feedback processes by exploring the studies that used a process -based modeling framework. Key research gaps were identified, such as navigating the complex environment, managing computational costs, and addressing the shortages of experts and data. We outlined potential modeling pathways to improve NbS characterization in the compound flooding framework. Additionally, uncertainties associated with numerical modeling and steps to bridge the research -to -operation gaps were briefly discussed, highlighting the bottlenecks in operational implementation.

关键词： Nature-based solution (NbS) process-based modeling Compound flooding Coastal hazards Ecological model Climate change

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The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A process-based modeling Analysis

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EARTHS FUTURE 2024年第11期12卷

作者： Liu, L. Zhuang, Q. Zhao, D. Wei, J. Zheng, D. Zhengzhou Univ Sch Geosci & Technol Zhengzhou Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat Beijing Peoples R China Purdue Univ Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci W Lafayette IN USA Henan Univ Econ & Law Sch Urban & Rural Planning Zhengzhou Peoples R China

Warming in permafrost regions stimulates carbon (C) release through decomposition, but increasing atmospheric CO2 and available soil nitrogen enhance plant productivity at the same time. To date, a large uncertainty in the regional C dynamics still remains. Here we use a process-based biogeochemical model by considering C exposure from thawed permafrost and observational data to quantify permafrost C emissions and ecosystem C budget in northern high latitudes in the 21st century. Permafrost degradation will make 119.3 Pg and 251.6 Pg C available for decomposition by 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)126 and SSP585, respectively. However, only 4-8% of the newly thawed permafrost C is expected to be released into the atmosphere by 2100. Cumulatively, permafrost degradation will reduce ecosystem C stocks by 3.37 Pg and 15.37 Pg under the SSP126 and SSP585, respectively. Additionally, CO2 fertilization effects would stimulate plant productivity and increase ecosystem C stocks substantially. The combined effects of climate change, CO2 fertilization, and permafrost degradation on C fluxes are typically more profound than any single factor, emphasizing the intricate interplay between these elements in shaping permafrost C-climate feedbacks. Our study suggests that the majority of the thawed C will remain sequestered in previously frozen layers in this century, posing a significant challenge to climate change mitigation efforts once any process accelerates the decomposition of this huge amount of thawed C.

关键词： permafrost degradation ecosystem C budget climate change process-based modeling deep soils

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process-based modeling of arsenic(III) oxidation by manganese oxides under circumneutral pH conditions

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WATER RESEARCH 2020年 185卷 116195页

作者： Rathi, Bhasker Jamieson, James Sun, Jing Siade, Adam J. Zhu, Mengqiang Cirpka, Olaf A. Prommer, Henning Univ Tubingen Ctr Appl Geosci Tubingen Germany Univ Western Australia Sch Earth Sci Crawley WA 6009 Australia CSIRO Land & Water Private Bag 5 Wembley WA 6913 Australia Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geochem State Key Lab Environm Geochem Guiyang 550081 Peoples R China Natl Ctr Groundwater Res & Training NCGRT Bedford Pk SA Australia Univ Wyoming Dept Ecosyst Sci & Management Laramie WY 82071 USA

Numerous experimental studies have identified a multi-step reaction mechanism to control arsenite (As(III)) oxidation by manganese (Mn) oxides. The studies highlighted the importance of edge sites and intermediate processes, e.g., surface passivation by reaction products. However, the identified reaction mechanism and controlling factors have rarely been evaluated in a quantitative context. In this study, a process-based modeling framework was developed to delineate and quantify the relative contributions and rates of the different processes affecting As(III) oxidation by Mn oxides. The model development and parameterization were constrained by experimental observations from literature studies involving environmentally relevant Mn oxides at circumneutral pH using both batch and stirred-flow reactors. Our modeling results highlight the importance of a transitional phase, solely evident in the stirred-flow experiments, where As(III) oxidation gradually shifts from fast reacting Mn(IV) to slowly reacting Mn(III) edge sites. The relative abundance of these edge sites was the most important factor controlling the oxidation rate, whereas surface passivation restricted oxidation only in the stirred-flow experiment. The Mn(III) edge sites were demonstrated to play a crucial role in the oxidation and therefore in controlling the long-term fate of As. This study provided an improved understanding of Mn oxide reactivity and the significance in the cycling of redox-sensitive metal(loid)s in the environment. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Manganese oxide Arsenic process-based modeling Surface complexation model Edge sites Surface passivation

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Reply to comment by Grey Nearing on "A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems"

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WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 2014年第7期50卷 6264-6268页

作者： Montanari, Alberto Koutsoyiannis, Demetris Univ Bologna Dept Civil Environm Chem & Mat Engn Bologna Italy Natl Tech Univ Athens Dept Water Resources & Environm Engn Zografos Greece

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process-based modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia)

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WATER 2021年第8期13卷

作者： Kalugin, Andrey Russian Acad Sci Water Problems Inst Moscow 119333 Russia

The purpose of the study was to analyze the formation conditions of catastrophic floods in the Iya River basin over the observation period, as well as a long-term forecast of the impacts of future climate change on the characteristics of the high flow in the 21st century. The semi-distributed process-based Ecological Model for Applied Geophysics (ECOMAG) was applied to the Iya River basin. Successful model testing results were obtained for daily discharge, annual peak discharge, and discharges exceeding the critical water level threshold over the multiyear period of 1970-2019. modeling of the high flow of the Iya River was carried out according to a Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.91, a percent bias (PBIAS) of -1%, and a ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) of 0.41. The preflood coefficient of water-saturated soil and the runoff coefficient of flood-forming precipitation in the Iya River basin were calculated in 1980, 1984, 2006, and 2019. Possible changes in the characteristics of high flow over summers in the 21st century were calculated using the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) as the boundary conditions in the runoff generation model. Anomalies in values were estimated for the middle and end of the current century relative to the observed runoff over the period 1990-2019. According to various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-scenarios) of the future climate in the Iya River basin, there will be less change in the annual peak discharge or precipitation and more change in the hazardous flow and its duration, exceeding the critical water level threshold, at which residential buildings are flooded.

关键词： runoff generation process-based modeling floods the Iya River the town of Tulun change in maximum flow the ECOMAG model ISIMIP

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