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Severity analysis of single-vehicle left and right run-off-road crashes using a random parameter ordered logit model

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TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 2023年第3期24卷 251-255页

作者： Okafor, Sunday Adanu, Emmanuel Kofi Lidbe, Abhay Jones, Steven Univ Alabama Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn Tuscaloosa AL USA Univ Alabama Alabama Transportat Inst Tuscaloosa AL USA Univ Alabama 3024 Cyber HallBox 870205 Tuscaloosa AL 35487 USA

ObjectivesSingle vehicle (SV) run-off-road crashes are a major cause of severe injury and fatality. Such crashes can result in different levels of severity depending on the direction (i.e., left or right) in which the vehicle runs off the road. This paper investigated the factors contributing to the crash severities of right run-off-road (R-ROR) and left run-off-road (L-ROR) SV *** study used SV crash data from the City of Charlotte, North Carolina, covering 2014 to 2017. Two separate random parameter ordered logit (RPOL) models were developed to estimate the contributing factors to R-ROR and L-ROR SV crash severities. The impact of the explanatory variables on the crash severity outcomes was quantified using the models' direct *** model results showed that male drivers, Driving Under Influence (DUI), motorcycles, and dry road surfaces were significant contributing factors to R-ROR and L-ROR SV crash severities. Specifically for the R-ROR model, speeding, reckless driving, 1-2 lanes, and older drivers increased crash severity. For the L-ROR model, phone distraction, crossed centerline/median, 3-4 lanes, rain, and dark unlighted roadway increased crash *** on the estimated parameters for the common significant variables in the two models, it was inferred that L-ROR SV crashes are more likely to result in severe crashes compared to R-ROR SV crashes. Hence, this study contributes to the literature on ROR SV crashes by providing additional insight into contextual factors influencing ROR crash severity for more effective countermeasures.

关键词： Crash severity single vehicle run-off-road run-off direction random parameter ordered logit model

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Severity analysis for large truck rollover crashes using a random parameter ordered logit model

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ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2020年 135卷 105355-105355页

作者： Azimi, Ghazaleh Rahimi, Alireza Asgari, Hamidreza Jin, Xia Florida Int Univ Dept Civil & Environm Engn 10555 W Flagler StEC3725 Miami FL 33174 USA

Large truck rollover crashes present significant financial, industrial, and social impacts. This paper presents an effort to investigate the contributing factors to large truck rollover crashes. Specific focus was placed on exploring the role of heterogeneity and the potential sources of heterogeneity regarding their impacts on injury-severity outcomes. The data used in this study contained large truck rollover crashes that occurred between 2007 and 2016 in the state of Florida. A random parameter ordered logit (RPOL) model was applied. Various driver, vehicle, roadway, and crash attributes were explored as potential predictors in the model. Their impacts were examined for the presence of heterogeneity. Interaction effects were then added to the random variables in order to detect potential sources of heterogeneity. model results showed that the impacts of lighting conditions and driving speed had significant variation across observations, and this variation could be attributed to driver actions and driver conditions at the time of the crash, as well as driver vision obstruction. Findings from this study shed light on the direction, magnitude, and randomness of the factors that contribute to large truck rollover crashes. Findings associated with heterogeneity could help develop more effective and targeted countermeasures to improve freight safety. Driver education programs could be planned more efficiently, and advisory and warning signs could be designed in a more insightful manner by taking into account specific roadway attributes, such as sandy surfaces, downhill, curved alignment, unpaved shoulders, and lighting conditions.

关键词： Large truck crash Rollover Crash severity random parameter ordered logit model Heterogeneity

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Examining the underlying exposures of hit-and-run and non-hit-and-run crashes

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JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT & HEALTH 2021年 20卷

作者： Jiang, Xinguo Han, Mingqiang Guo, Runhua Zhang, Guopeng Fan, Yingfei Li, Xiang Bai, Wei Wei, Mengmeng Liang, Qi Southwest Jiaotong Univ Sch Transportat & Logist West Pk Chengdu 611756 Peoples R China Natl Engn Lab Integrated Transportat Big Data App West Pk Chengdu 611756 Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ Dept Civil Engn Suite 217Heshanheng Bldg Beijing 100084 Peoples R China Zhejiang Normal Univ Coll Engn 688 Yingbin Rd Jinhua 321004 Zhejiang Peoples R China Zhejiang Normal Univ Key Lab Urban Rail Transit Intelligent Operat & M Jinhua 321005 Zhejiang Peoples R China Taiyuan Univ Sci & Technol Sch Transportat & Logist Engn 66 Waliu Rd Taiyuan 030024 Peoples R China Sichuan Police Coll Dept Rd Traff Management 186 Longtouguan Rd Luzhou 646000 Peoples R China Sichuan Vocat & Tech Coll Commun Chengdu 611130 Peoples R China Sichuan Urban & Rural Investment & Construct Grp 14 Jiuxing Rd Chengdu 610041 Peoples R China

Introduction: Hit-and-run crashes occur when the driver at fault leaves the scene without reporting, which could delay emergency response for the victims who are left. For this reason, it is assumed that hit-and-run crashes lead to more serious injuries;however, the research in this area is limited. The objectives of the study are to examine the differences in hit-and-run and non-hitand-run victim injury severities and to identify the factors that may influence any differences. Methods: Quasi-induced exposure technique, an indirect method, is employed to measure the relative crash exposures between hit-and-run and non-hit-and-run crashes using Michigan twovehicle injury crashes 2012-2014. random parameter ordered logit model is used to reveal the discrepancy of the factors contributing to victim injury severity. Results: We found that the injuries sustained by the drivers left at the scene (victims) of hit-andrun crashes were generally less severe compared to non-hit-and-run driver victims, which may be attributed to the differential crash factors in terms of driver age and vehicle type. The injuryseverity contributing factors of hit-and-run crashes differed considerably from the non-hit-andrun crashes. Characteristics such as occurring in rural areas, at nighttime, at intersections, crash type, and alcohol involvement significantly increased the injury severities of the driver victims. Conclusion: We inform the hit-and-run literature to suggest a contradiction to the assumption that leaving the crash scene may lead to more serious injuries. This example emphasizes the importance of distinguishing different types of crashes and their contributing factors. We offer an indirect approach that can help to identify underlying factors and reduce bias, which can inform traffic safety methods and serve to propose effective safety countermeasures.

关键词： Hit-and-run crashes Quasi-induced exposure Injury severity random parameter ordered logit model Two-vehicle crashes

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Acceptability of transportation demand management policy packages considering interactions and socio-economic heterogeneity

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RESEARCH IN TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICS 2024年 103卷

作者： Moeinaddini, Amin Habibian, Meeghat Amirkabir Univ Technol Fac Civil Engn Dept Civil & Environm Engn 319424Hafez Ave Tehran 15914 Iran Amirkabir Univ Technol Fac Civil Engn Dept Civil & Environm Engn 4060424Hafez Ave Tehran 15914 Iran

The Transportation Demand Management (TDM) policies will not be authorized if they have not enough public acceptability. In this study, policy packing is proposed as a way to alleviate the unacceptability of coercive (push) TDM policies that have considerable effectiveness (e.g., cordon and parking pricing) by using some non-coercive (pull) TDM policies (e.g., transit development). Furthermore, in addition to the main effects, the interaction effects of TDM policies on the acceptability of two policy packages are addressed. Policy package (I) includes cordon pricing and reduction of transit access time, and Policy package (II) contains parking pricing and reduction of transit access time. A random parameter ordered logit (RPOL) model is developed based on a choice experiment designed for car commuters of Tehran, Iran. Results confirm that while reducing transit access time have a significant interaction effect with cordon pricing on the acceptability of Package (I) it has not a significant interaction effect with parking pricing on the acceptability of Package (II). Furthermore, the heterogeneity of respondents' cars value and the presence of free parking at the workplace can significantly affect the acceptability of Package (II). This study also addresses the effect of respondents' trip and socio-economic characteristics on the acceptability.

关键词： Acceptability Transportation demand management Interaction effect Policy package Cordon pricing Parking pricing Transit development random parameter ordered logit model

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Investigating Older Adults' Propensity toward Ridesourcing Services

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JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING PART A-SYSTEMS 2022年第9期148卷

作者： Sarker, Md Al Adib Rahimi, Alireza Azimi, Ghazaleh Jin, Xia Florida Int Univ Dept Civil & Environm Engn 10555 W Flagler StEC 3725 Miami FL 33174 USA Florida Int Univ Amer Inst Certified Planners Dept Civil & Environm Engn 10555 W Flagler StEC 3603 Miami FL 33174 USA

This paper presents the results of a study that explores the desired monthly cost savings that would motivate older adults to change their regular mobility choices to ridesourcing. Using data from a stated preference survey, various socioeconomic and demographic attributes and personal attitudinal factors were examined to investigate their impacts on older adults' ridesourcing adoption decisions. random parameter ordered logit models were developed for older adults (age 65 and older) and young adults (age 64 and younger) separately to investigate whether and how the contributing factors differ. The potential heterogeneity in the impacts of these variables was also examined. model results showed significant differences between older and younger adults' motivations for ridesourcing adoption. For older adults, those who were less educated or sensitive to travel costs required lower economic incentives, and were therefore easier to persuade to switch to ridesourcing. In contrast, older adults who had a positive view about private vehicle utilities, had trust issues with traveling with strangers, used private vehicles for regular trips, and shopped online regularly showed higher expectations of monthly cost savings to switching to ridesourcing. While these attitudes played a significant role in older adults' decision-making, socioeconomic and demographic attributes, such as age and income, were more influential in young adults' ridesourcing choices. The results provide a better understanding of the older adults' motivations to switch to ridesourcing for monthly cost savings. The findings could be helpful for planners and policymakers to better plan for older adults to meet their mobility needs.

关键词： Ridesourcing Older adults Cost savings Stated preference survey random parameter ordered logit model

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Factors affecting injury severity in vehicle-pedestrian crashes: A day-of-week analysis using random parameter ordered response models and Artificial Neural Networks

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International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 2020年第2期9卷 100-115页

作者： Mokhtarimousavi, Seyedmirsajad Anderson, Jason C. Azizinamini, Atorod Hadi, Mohammed Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Florida International University Miami 33174 FL United States Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University Portland 97201 OR United States Accelerate Bridge Construction University Transportation Center Moss School of Construction Infrastructure and Sustainability Florida International University Miami 33174 FL United States Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Florida International University Miami 33174 FL United States

The high number of vehicle–pedestrian crashes in the United State has gained increased attention among transportation safety analysts in recent years. Being directly exposed to the collision force makes pedestrians more prone to becoming severely injured when in crash than other road users. Considering the fact that pedestrian-involved crashes is a serious public health problem, the current study's aim is to investigate the contributing factors associated with injury severity of pedestrian crashes by time-of-week. Separate injury severity models for weekday and weekend crashes were developed, and the overall stability of the model estimates was examined through likelihood ratio tests. For this purpose, random parameter ordered-response models were employed to specify the ordinal nature of injury severity levels and capture the potential unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used to explore the nonlinear relationship between explanatory variables and severity outcomes. Comparison of the prediction performance demonstrated that optimized ANN provides superior results compared to conventional statistical approaches. A variable impact analysis was then conducted on the optimized ANN to investigate the effects of the explanatory variables on injury severity. The results revealed the factors that are significantly associated with pedestrian fatalities. These findings further provide insights for a better understanding of pedestrian injury severity in weekday vs. weekend crashes through the impact analysis of various explanatory variables. © 2020 Tongji University and Tongji University Press

关键词： Artificial Neural Networks Crash injury severity random parameter ordered logit model random parameter ordered Probit model Whale Optimization Algorithm

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Evaluating the traffic safety performance of left-turn waiting areas at signalized intersections

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International Journal for Consumer and Product Safety 2024年第1期31卷

作者： Guopeng Zhang Ying Cai Xianghong Hu Qianwei Xuan a College of Engineering Zhejiang Normal University Jinhua Chinab Key Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Technology & Equipment of Zhejiang Province Zhejiang Normal University Zhejiang China a College of Engineering Zhejiang Normal University Jinhua China

Left-turn waiting area (LWA) is an innovative traffic design that is popularly applied to improve the traffic capacity of signalized intersections in China. The traffic safety impacts of the LWA, however, have not been fully discussed in previous studies. Thus, the study aims to evaluate the safety performance of the LWA by means of the traffic conflict technique. A field investigation was conducted to collect the post-encroachment time (PET) of conflicts and relevant variables at the signalized intersections in Jinhua, China. The Chi-square and two sample t-tests were adopted to examine the difference in conflict distribution between the intersections with and without LWA. The random parameter ordered logit model was employed to identify the factors contributing to the risks of vehicular collisions. Results indicate that (1) intersections with LWA are generally associated with more merging conflicts; (2) there are no significant discrepancies in the PET values between intersections with and without LWA; and (3) factors such as the number of left-turn lanes, number of receiving lanes, conflict type, vehicle type, driving direction, stopping outside LWA and overtaking behavior are identified to significantly impact the traffic conflicts. The findings serve to develop the countermeasures to ensure the safe operation of LWA.

关键词： Left-turn waiting area signalized intersection traffic conflict post-encroachment time random parameter ordered logit model

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