Background:Varicella is a common infectious disease and a growing public health concern in China, with increasing outbreaks in Wuxi. Analyzing the correlation between climate factors and varicella incidence in Wuxi is...
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Background:Varicella is a common infectious disease and a growing public health concern in China, with increasing outbreaks in Wuxi. Analyzing the correlation between climate factors and varicella incidence in Wuxi is crucial for guiding public health prevention efforts. Objective:This study examines the impact of meteorological variables on varicella incidence in Wuxi, eastern China, from 2010 to 2019, offering insights for public health interventions. Methods:We collected daily meteorological data and varicella case records from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, in Wuxi, China. Generalized cross-validation identified optimal lag days by selecting those with the lowest score. The relationship between meteorological factors and varicella incidence was analyzed using Poisson generalized additive models and segmentedlinearregression. Subgroup analyses were conducted by gender and age. Results:The study encompassed 64,086 varicella cases. Varicella incidence in Wuxi city displayed a bimodal annual pattern, with peak occurrences from November to January of the following year and lower peaks from May to June. Several meteorological factors influencing varicella risk were identified. A decrease of 1 degrees C when temperatures were <= 20 degrees C corresponded to a 1.99% increase in varicella risk (95% CI 1.57-2.42, P<.001). Additionally, a decrease of 1 degrees C below 22.38 degrees C in ground temperature was associated with a 1.36% increase in varicella risk (95% CI 0.96-1.75, P<.001). Each 1 mm increase in precipitation above 4.88 mm was associated with a 1.62% increase in varicella incidence (95% CI 0.93-2.30, P<.001). A 1% rise in relative humidity above 57.18% increased varicella risk by 2.05% (95% CI 1.26-2.84, P<.001). An increase in air pressure of 1 hPa below 1011.277 hPa was associated with a 1.75% rise in varicella risk (95% CI 0.75-2.77, P<.001). As wind speed and evaporation increased, varicella risk decreased linearly with a 16-day lag. Varicella ri
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