Wildfires in Europe - especially in the Mediterranean region - are one of the major treats at landscape scale. While their immediate impact ranges from endangering human life to the destruction of economic assets, oth...
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ISBN:
(纸本)9783642411502
Wildfires in Europe - especially in the Mediterranean region - are one of the major treats at landscape scale. While their immediate impact ranges from endangering human life to the destruction of economic assets, other damages exceed the spatio-temporal scale of a fire event. Wildfires involving forest resources are associated with intense carbon emissions and alteration of surrounding ecosystems. The induced land cover degradation has also a potential role in exacerbating soil erosion and shallow landslides. A component of the complexity in assessing fire impacts resides in the difference between uncontrolled wildfires and those for which a control strategy is applied. Robust modelling of wildfire behaviour requires dynamic simulations under an array of multiple fuel models, meteorological disturbances and control strategies for mitigating fire damages. Uncertainty is associated to meteorological forecast and fuel model estimation. Software uncertainty also derives from the data-transformation models needed for predicting the wildfire behaviour and its consequences. The complex and dynamic interactions of these factors define a context of deep uncertainty. Here an architecture for adaptive and robust modelling of wildfire behaviour is proposed, following the semantic array programming paradigm. The mathematical conceptualisation focuses on the dynamic exploitation of updated meteorological information and the design flexibility in adapting to the heterogeneous European conditions. Also, the modelling architecture proposes a multi-criteria approach for assessing the potential impact with qualitative rapid assessment methods and more accurate a-posteriori assessment.
Landslide susceptibility assessment is a fundamental component of effective landslide prevention. One of the main challenges in landslides forecasting is the assessment of spatial distribution of landslide susceptibil...
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ISBN:
(纸本)9783642411502
Landslide susceptibility assessment is a fundamental component of effective landslide prevention. One of the main challenges in landslides forecasting is the assessment of spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility. Despite the many different approaches, landslide susceptibility assessment still remains a challenge. A semi-quantitative method is proposed combining heuristic, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a robust catchment scale assessment. A fuzzy ensemble model has been exploited for aggregating an array of different susceptibility zonation maps. Each susceptibility zonation has been obtained by applying heterogeneous statistical techniques as logistic regression (LR), relative distance similarity (RDS), artificial neural network (ANN) and two different landslide susceptibility techniques based on the infinite slope stability model. The sequence of data-transformation models has been enhanced following the semantic array programming paradigm. The ensemble has been applied to a study area in Italy. This catchment scale methodology may be exploited for analysing the potential impact of landscape disturbances. At regional scale, a qualitative approach is also proposed as a rapid assessment technique - suitable for application in real-time operations such as wildfire emergency management.
Forest ecosystems play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon are therefore crucial for designing and implementing effective sustainable forest mana...
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ISBN:
(纸本)9783642411502
Forest ecosystems play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon are therefore crucial for designing and implementing effective sustainable forest management options and forest related policies. In this contribution, we present European-wide maps of forest biomass and carbon stock spatially disaggregated at 1km x 1km. The maps originated from a spatialisation improvement of the IPCC methodology for estimating the forest biomass at IPCC Tier 1 level (IPCC-T1). Using a categorical map of ecological zones within the mapping technique may originate boundary effects between the ecological zones. This may induce undue artifacts in the outcomes, as evident in previously published maps generated with the IPCC-T1 methodology. Here we present a novel method for IPCC-T1 biomass mapping which mitigates these artifacts. We propose the use of a fuzzy similarity map of the FAO ecological zones computed by estimating the relative distance similarity (RDS) of each grid-cells climate and geography with respect to the FAO ecological zones. A robust ensemble approach was used to merge an array of simple models with spatially distributed fuzzy set-membership. This allowed the boundary artifacts to be reduced, while mitigating the impact of model semantic extrapolation. The chain of semantically enhanced data-transformations is described following the semantic array programming paradigm. Preliminary results obtained from the application of this novel approach are presented along with a discussion of its impact on the derived maps.
Wildfire information has long been collected in Europe, with particular focus on forest fires. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of the European Commission complements and harmonises the information ...
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ISBN:
(纸本)9783642411502
Wildfire information has long been collected in Europe, with particular focus on forest fires. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of the European Commission complements and harmonises the information collected by member countries and covers the forest fire management cycle. This latter ranges from forest fire preparedness to post-fire impact analysis. However, predicting and simulating fire event dynamics requires the integrated modelling of several sources of uncertainty. Here we present a case study of a novel conceptualization based on a semantic array programming (SemAP) application of the Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (DDDAS) concept. The case study is based on a new architecture for adaptive and robust modelling of wildfire behaviour. It focuses on the module for simulating wildfire dynamics under fire control scenarios. Rapid assessment of the involved impact due to carbon emission and potential soil erosion is also shown. Uncertainty is assessed by ensembling an array of simulations which consider the uncertainty in meteorology, fuel, software modules. The event under investigation is a major wildfire occurred in 2012, widely reported as one of the worst in the Valencia region, Spain. The inherent data, modelling and software uncertainty are discussed and preliminary results of the robust data-driven ensemble application are presented. The case study suitably illustrates a typical modelling context in many European areas - for which timely collecting accurate local information on vegetation, fuel, humidity, wind fields is not feasible - where robust and flexible approaches may prove as a viable modelling strategy.
The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) has been established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment (DG ENV) of the European Commission (EC) in close collaboration w...
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The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) has been established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment (DG ENV) of the European Commission (EC) in close collaboration with the Member States and neighbour countries. EFFIS is intended as complementary system to national and regional systems in the countries, providing harmonised information required for international collaboration on forest fire prevention and fighting and in cases of trans-boundary fire events. However, one missing component in the system is a wildfire behaviour model able to cover the whole Europe. We propose a new general conceptualisation for wildfire prediction. It relies on an array-based and semantically enhanced (semantic array programming) application of the Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (DDDAS) concept, so as to predict spread of large fires at European level. The proposed mathematical framework is designed to simulate with an ensemble strategy the wildfire dynamics under given sequences of actions for controlling the fire spread and updated data- driven information. First results on data and software uncertainties associated with the problem have been presented with a real case study in Spain.
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