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Economic Growth with Political Lobbying and Wage Bargaining *

IFAC Proceedings Volumes 2009年第2期42卷 58-63页

作者： Tapio Palokangas

This paper examines an economy with a large number of industries, each producing a different good. Technological change follows a Poisson process where firms improve their productivity through investment in R&D. The less there are firms in the economy or the more they can coordinate their actions, the higher their profits. Labor is used in production or R&D. All workers are unionized and their wages depend on relative union bargaining power. If this power is high enough, then there is involuntary unemployment. Both workers and firms lobby the central planner of the economy which affects firms’ and unions’ market power. The main findings of the paper can be summarized the follows. Unions’ and firms’ market power decreases the level of income at each moment of time. On the other hand, the greater the firm's share of value added or the higher union wages, more incentives the firm has to increase the productivity of labor through R&D. In this respect, there can be an optimal amount of unions’ and firms’ market power. Concerning the regulation of relative union bargaining power, the central planner can increase its welfare either (a) by increasing the level of income or (b) by speeding up economic growth. If (a) is more effective than (b), then the central planner eliminates union power altogether to have full employment. On the other hand, if (b) is more effective than (a), then the central planner supports labor unions to promote cost-escaping R&D.

关键词： extensive game maximum principle stochastic dynamic programming alternative offers game common agency

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Temporal Difference Learning Waveform Selection

Temporal Difference Learning Waveform Selection

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2009 ISECS International Colloquium on Computing, Communication, Control, and Management

作者： Bin Wang College of Information Science and Engineering Northeastern University Shenyang,China Jinkuan Wang,Xin Song,Yinghua Han Engineering Optimization and Smart Antenna Institute Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao Qinhuangdao,China

The largest difference between cognitive radar and other adaptive radar is the adaptivity of transmitter in cognitive radar. How to optimally decide or select the radar waveform for next transmission based on the observation of past radar returns is one of the important issues. In this paper,with the stochastic dynamic programming model of waveform selection,we use the method of temporal difference learning to solve this problem and realize the adaptivity of waveform selection. The simulation results show that the uncertainty of state estimation using temporal difference learning is less than that using fixed waveform.

关键词： cognitive radar waveform selection stochastic dynamic programming temporal difference learning

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stochastic Optimization Based on Principal-agent Problem

Stochastic Optimization Based on Principal-agent Problem

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2009 ISECS International Colloquium on Computing, Communication, Control, and Management

作者： Xiaoyu Ren Department of Mathematics Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310027,Zhejiang,P.R.China Xinping Shao Department of Mathematics Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310027,Zhejiang,P.R.China Shenghong Li Department of Mathematics Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310027,Zhejiang,P.R.China

By the theory of stochastic dynamic program- ming,we provide the methods for deriving the optimal *** this paper,we make two models in dynamic state process to maximize the expected utility of the agent and then obtain the famous Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Furthermore,we derive explicit form solution and closed- form solution of the optimal equations for given utility functions.

关键词： principal-agent problem stochastic dynamic programming stochastic differential equation stochastic optimal control HJB equation

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*** MANAGEMENT OF PLATELETS IN HOSPITALS:OPTIMAL INVENTORY POLICY FOR PERISHABLE PRODUCTS WITH EMERGENCY REPLENISHMENTS

*** MANAGEMENT OF PLATELETS IN HOSPITALS:OPTIMAL INVENTORY P...

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The Ninth International Conference on Electronic Business

作者： Lawrence C.Leung William P.Pierskalla Department of Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics The Chinese University of Hong Kong UCLA Anderson School of Management The University of CaliforniaLos Angeles110 Westwood PlazaLos AngelesCA 90095 USA

Platelets are short-life blood components used in hospital blood transfusion *** time for transportation,testing,and arrangement, clinically transfusable platelets have a mere three-day *** paper analyzes a periodic review inventory system for such perishable products under two replenishment *** orders are placed at the beginning of a *** the cycle, the manager has the option of placing an emergency order,characterized by an order-up-to level policy. We prove the existence and uniqueness of an optimal policy that minimizes the expected *** then derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the policy,based on which a heuristic algorithm is developed.A numerical illustration and a sensitivity analysis are provided,along with managerial *** numerical results show that,unlike typical inventory problems,the total expected cost is sensitive to the regular order policy. It also shows that the optimal policy is sensitive to changes in the expected demand,suggesting to decision makers the significance of having an accurate demand forecast.

关键词： Perishable items Platelet inventory management Emergency orders stochastic dynamic programming

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Multiple solutions under quasi-exponential discounting

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ECONOMIC THEORY 2009年第3期39卷 513-526页

作者： Vieille, Nicolas Weibull, Joergen W. HEC Paris Dept Finance & Econ Jouy En Josas France Stockholm Sch Econ S-11383 Stockholm Sweden Ecole Polytech Palaiseau France

Infinite horizon dynamic optimization problems with non-exponential time preferences may not only exhibit time inconsistency but may also have multiple solutions with distinct payoffs. We here show that such multiplicity is generic in the sense that it occurs in an open set of such decision problems, even with small state- and action-spaces. Non-exponential discounting allows for an "addictive" equilibrium alongside a "virtuous" equilibrium. We also provide a sufficient condition for uniqueness in infinitely repeated decision problems with general action spaces.

关键词： Time-consistency Hyperbolic discounting stochastic dynamic programming Multiplicity Uniqueness

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Optimal MAV operations in an uncertain environment

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROBUST AND NONLINEAR CONTROL 2008年第2期18卷 248-262页

作者： Pachter, Meir Chandler, Phillip R. Darbha, Swaroop AFRL VACA Wright Patterson AFB OH 45433 USA AFIT ENG Wright Patterson AFB OH 45433 USA Texas A&M Univ Dept Mech Engn College Stn TX 77843 USA

In this paper, we consider a problem of sequential resource allocation. Such a problem arises in a simplified intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance scenario where a micro air vehicle (MAV) is tasked with classification in an environment with false, that is, clutter, targets. The MAV visits the objects of interest in a specified sequence. A human operator is tasked with aiding the MAV's automatic target recognition system with the classification of objects, based on the images sent to him from the MAVs. If the images do not resolve the ambiguity concerning the status of the object being classified, the operator may request that the object be revisited. In this paper, for the sake of exposition of the employed methods and clarity of presentation, we assume that every object may be revisited at most once. Each object can be revisited and re-examined in L >= I ways. There is an information gain whose value is given by the running reward. The information gain depends on the way an object is re-examined, and the feedback from the operator but it is the same for all the objects. There is a random operator delay in communicating his findings to the MAV and the probability density function of the delay is assumed known. The MAV has a limited fuel reserve and upon getting feedback from the operator (and hence, knowing the delay associated with the object of interest only and not with those that it must revisit in the future), it must decide whether to revisit the object and if so, which of the L ways is optimal so as to maximize the total expected reward. In every revisit, fuel is expended from the reserve and is proportional to twice the delay plus a fixed cost, which is dependent on the way in which the object is re-examined. We employ a stochastic dynamic programming approach to solve this problem. Specifically, for the case when L = 1, we show that there is an optimal threshold for each object and it is optimal to revisit the object if the delay is at most the thr

关键词： stochastic dynamic programming UAV MAV

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Optimal stopping analysis of a radiation detection system to protect cities from a nuclear terrorist attack

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RISK ANALYSIS 2008年第2期28卷 353-371页

作者： Atkinson, Michael P. Cao, Zheng Wein, Lawrence M. Stanford Univ Grad Sch Business Stanford CA 94305 USA Inst Computat & Math Engn Stanford CA 94305 USA Stanford Univ Dept Phys Stanford CA 94305 USA

We formulate and analyze an optimal stopping problem concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, the terrorist needs to travel through a two-dimensional lattice containing imperfect radiation sensors at some of the nodes, and decides at each node whether to detonate the bomb or proceed. We consider five different scenarios containing various informational structures and two different sensor array topologies: the sensors are placed randomly or they form an outer wall around the periphery of the city. We find that sensors can act as a deterrent in some cases, and that the government prefers the outer wall topology unless the sensors have a very low detection probability and the budget is tight (so that they are sparsely deployed).

关键词： homeland security Stackelberg game stochastic dynamic programming

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Multi-stand forest management under a climatic risk: Do time and risk preferences matter?

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ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT 2008年第2期13卷 181-193页

作者： Couture, Stephane Reynaud, Arnaud Univ Toulouse 1 LERNA INRA F-31042 Toulouse France LEF INRA ENGREF F-54042 Nancy France

We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences.

关键词： forest economics stochastic dynamic programming non-expected utility climate risk

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Optimal empty vehicle redistribution for hub-and-spoke transportation systems

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NAVAL RESEARCH LOGISTICS 2008年第2期55卷 156-171页

作者： Song, Dong-Ping Carter, Jonathan Univ Plymouth Sch Business Int Shipping & Logist Grp Plymouth PL4 8AA Devon England Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med Dept Earth Sci & Engn London SW7 2AZ England

This article considers the empty vehicle redistribution problem in a hub-and-spoke transportation system, with random demands and stochastic transportation times. An event-driven model is formulated, which yields the implicit optimal control policy. Based on the analytical results for two-depot systems, a dynamic decomposition procedure is presented which produces a near-optimal policy with linear computational complexity in terms of the number of spokes. The resulting policy has the same asymptotic behavior as that of the optimal policy. It is found that the threshold-type control policy is not usually optimal in such systems. The results are illustrated through small-scale numerical examples. Through simulation the robustness of the dynamic decomposition policy is tested using a variety of scenarios: more spokes, more vehicles, different combinations of distribution types for the empty vehicle travel times and loaded vehicle arrivals. This shows that the dynamic decomposition policy is significantly better than a heuristics policy in all scenarios and appears to be robust to the assumptions of the distribution types. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

关键词： transportation systems empty vehicle redistribution stochastic dynamic programming discrete event dynamic systems dynamic decomposition

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Optimal management of a flammable multi-stand forest for timber production and maintenance of nesting sites for wildlife

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FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2008年第11期255卷 3857-3865页

作者： Spring, Daniel A. Kennedy, John Lindenmayer, David B. McCarthy, Michael A. Mac Nally, Ralph Monash Univ Australian Ctr Biodivers Sch Biol Sci Clayton Vic 3800 Australia La Trobe Univ Dept Econ & Finance Bundoora Vic 3086 Australia Australian Natl Univ Fenner Sch Environm & Soc Canberra ACT 0200 Australia Univ Melbourne Sch Bot Parkville Vic 3010 Australia

Decline of cavity-using wildlife species is a major forest management issue. One of the causes of this problem is the loss in cavity tree abundance, resulting from short rotation silviculture, stand-replacing disturbance events and timber harvesting in disturbed stands. Cavity tree availability cannot be guaranteed due to the stochastic nature of disturbance events. We developed a Markov model to predict future cavity tree availability under alternative tree felling and fire protection strategies using information on cavity tree dynamics and fire history. stochastic dynamic programming was used to find a strategy that maximizes timber revenues less forest management costs, including the cost of an artificial nest-box program that must be implemented whenever cavity trees become critically scarce. The requirement to implement a nest-box program in such circumstances strongly influenced the optimal tree felling strategy and resulted in a higher probability of having cavity trees in the future. This reflected an increase in the retention of old growth forest and stands with fire-killed cavity trees as well as stands of younger trees to provide a future source of cavities. These results demonstrate the need to consider the costs of artificial habitat enhancement and the risk Of future cavity tree scarcity in multiple-use forest management planning. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： cavity trees nest-boxes salvage logging stochastic dynamic programming

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