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Maximum credible ground motion evaluation based on broadband stochastic finite-fault method: A case study for Baihetan dam in China

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SOIL DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING 2025年 190卷

作者： Yu, Ruifang Yang, Qianli Xu, Jianrong Song, Yisheng Zhou, Hong Yu, Yanxiang China Earthquake Adm Inst Geophys Beijing 100081 Peoples R China HuaDong Engn Corp Ltd Hangzhou 311122 Peoples R China

For the 300-m-high dam, reasonable estimation of the maximum credible earthquake ground motion at the site is crucial to prevent dam failure under near-field strong earthquakes. The primary aim of this study is to develop a broadband ground motion simulation method based on the stochastic finite fault method. This method can capture the low-frequency components of ground motion while maintaining high computational efficiency, thereby rendering it suitable for engineering applications. Firstly, we incorporate a random slip, which follows a k-squared distribution, into the deterministic asperity model to better simulate the fault rupture process. Subsequently, we adopt a dynamic corner frequency model, incorporating a non-uniform stress drop across subsources, to refine the theoretical source spectrum. Lastly, a low-frequency filtering function is incorporated into the sub-source amplitude spectrum to mitigate low-frequency simulation inaccuracies arising from uncertainties, such as simplified path effects. The proposed methodology was validated through simulations of the Wenchuan earthquake records, demonstrating its effectiveness in accurately reconstructing the amplitude and spectrum of ground motion at the bedrock site. However, the reasonable estimation of low-frequency components in ground motion hinges on the choice of the prior target spectrum. The proposed simulation methodology was employed to comprehensively assess the maximum credible ground motions at the Baihetan dam site, yielding ground motion scenarios for various risk levels. This research offers a practical and efficient method for estimating ground motion, facilitating seismic safety assessments of high dams subjected to near-field earthquake excitations.

关键词： Maximum credible ground motion stochastic finite-fault method Broadband ground motion simulations Ground motion low-frequency compensation Baihetan dam site

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A modified stochastic finite-fault method for estimating strong ground motion:Validation and application

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Earthquake Science 2024年第1期37卷 36-50页

作者： Xinjuan He Hua Pan Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China

We developed a modified stochastic finite-fault method for estimating strong ground *** adjustment to the dynamic corner frequency was introduced,which accounted for the effect of the location of the subfault relative to the hypocenter and rupture propagation direction,to account for the influence of the rupture propagation direction on the subfault dynamic corner *** comparing the peak ground acceleration(PGA),pseudo-absolute response spectra acceleration(PSA,damping ratio of 5%),and duration,the results of the modified and existing methods were compared,demonstrating that our proposed adjustment to the dynamic corner frequency can accurately reflect the rupture directivity *** applied our modified method to simulate near-field strong motions within 150 km of the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake *** modified method performed well over a broad period range,particularly at 0.04-4 *** total deviations of the stochastic finite-fault method(EXSIM)and the modified EXSIM were 0.1676 and 0.1494,*** modified method can effectively account for the influence of the rupture propagation direction and provide more realistic ground motion estimations for earthquake disaster mitigation.

关键词： stochastic finite-fault method dynamic corner frequency Wenchuan earthquake rupture propagation direction

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Ground-motion simulation using stochastic finite-fault method combined with a parameter calibration process based on historical seismic data

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NATURAL HAZARDS 2022年第3期114卷 3509-3528页

作者： Wang, Tianjia Shen, Yonggang Xie, Xu Chai, Jing Zhejiang Univ Coll Civil Engn & Architecture Hangzhou Peoples R China Jinan Lib Jinan Shandong Peoples R China

Accurate simulation of ground motion is an important basis for the seismic design of engineering structures. The stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account the source, path, and site effects, is comprehensively applied in simulating ground motion. However, the uncertainty in path and site parameters can affect the reliability of the simulation results. Therefore, it is of great significance to accurately determine these parameters. In this study, a parameter calibration process based on historical seismic data was proposed, where the genetic algorithm was adopted and the optimal combination of parameters was obtained through the best fit between the observed and simulated 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration. Based on the 2019 Changning Ms 5.6 earthquake records, the calibrated parameters were obtained. In addition, a model bias analysis was performed and the simulation results were compared with those predicted by the ground motion prediction equations, which verified the effectiveness of the parameter calibration process. Furthermore, the ground motion of Changning Ms 6.0 earthquake was synthesized using the calibrated parameters, and the blind simulation was carried out at Gongxian middle school where ground motion was not recorded. The results show that in the area with complex terrain, the parameters reflecting the geological conditions are obtained through calibration, which forms effective input conditions in the stochastic finite-fault method, so that the ground motion can be well reproduced. Additionally, it also provides a theoretical basis for disaster prevention planning and implementation.

关键词： Ground-motion simulation stochastic finite-fault method Parameter calibration Genetic algorithm 2019 Changning earthquake

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Simulation of the Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake by stochastic finite-fault method based on variable stress drop

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NATURAL HAZARDS 2020年第2期103卷 2295-2321页

作者： Dang, Pengfei Liu, Qifang Song, Jian China Earthquake Adm Key Lab Earthquake Engn & Engn Vibrat China Earth Inst Engn Mech 29 Xuefu Rd Harbin 150080 Heilongjiang Peoples R China Suzhou Univ Sci & Technol Sch Civil Engn 1701 Binhe Rd Suzhou 215011 Jiangsu Peoples R China

An improved stochastic finite-fault method was used to simulate theM(w)6.6 earthquake that occurred on August 8, 2017, in Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, China. A variation of the stochastic finite-fault method, considering the dynamic corner frequency, was used to overcome the corner frequency. It explains the effect of a given slip distribution on the corner frequency of each subfault. A comparison of the response spectra (damping ratio 5%), spectral ratio (simulated values/observed values), and model deviation demonstrated that the improved corner frequency performs well for the whole periods, especially in short periods from 0.2 to 1 s. Similarly, the revised duration model and the site-amplification factor were applied to simulate the ground motion during the Jiuzhaigou earthquake, and then the response spectra were obtained. The duration of the nine near-field station recordings matched well with the simulated ground motions, and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of most of the stations matched well with the observed PGA. In the short periods (T < 1 s), a small difference is observed between the simulated response spectra and the observed spectra for most of the stations. However, the response spectra were overestimated within the period range (0.05-10 s). Generally, the simulated ground motions obtained by using the improved model matched well with the observed ground motions, which could be considered the basis for earthquake-resistant design during the postdisaster recovery and the structural dynamic analysis of the Jiuzhaigou region.

关键词： stochastic finite-fault method Dynamic corner frequency Jiuzhaigou earthquake Response spectra Site amplification

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stochastic finite-fault method controlled by the fault rupture process and its application to the Ms 7.0 Lushan Earthquake

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SOIL DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING 2019年 126卷 105782-000页

作者： Zhou, Hong Chang, Ying China Earthquake Adm Inst Geophys Beijing 100081 Peoples R China Southern Univ Sci & Technol Dept Earth & Space Sci Shenzhen 518055 Guangdong Peoples R China

Fast and precise estimation of strong ground motion is important for seismic hazard responses and engineering purposes. stochastic finite-fault methods are effective ground-motion time-series simulation methods using stochastic models of point-source spectra and considering physical parameters on finite faults. We propose two main modifications of current stochastic finite-fault methods to control the simulations. We replace the predetermined time function with different source time functions for each subfault to improve low-frequency results including the envelopes of accelerations and velocities. We replace the uniform stress drop with a distribution of non-uniform stress drops to reduce the dependence of simulated results on a single stress drop. The two modifications are applied to simulate ground motions of the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake. The simulation results agree with the observations in terms of acceleration, velocity, and pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA). Damage estimates based on the simulated PSA also agree with the post-earthquake disaster investigation.

关键词： stochastic finite-fault method Non-uniform stress drop distribution Non-uniform time function The Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake

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Probabilistic seismic demand analysis for bridges based on earthquake scenarios

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ENGINEERING STRUCTURES 2025年 323卷

作者： Wang, Tianjia Xie, Xu Cheng, Cheng Zhejiang Univ Coll Civil Engn & Architecture Hangzhou 310058 Peoples R China

The current probabilistic seismic demand analysis of structures predominantly considers the correlation between the ground motion intensity measure (IM) and structural seismic demand, but fails to effectively capture regional source characteristics. It is essential to integrate earthquake engineering with seismic response of structures using source parameters to quantify regional ground motion uncertainties and determine appropriate IMs. This study presented a probabilistic seismic demand analysis method for structures based on earthquake scenarios, characterized by 1) utilizing the stochastic finite-fault method to simulate ground motions at a specific site instead of employing multiple seismic waves from different source areas, and 2) incorporating the correlation between IMs and the key indicator of source parameters, stress drop, into the probabilistic seismic demand analysis. Taking a continuous girder bridge as an example, the performance of the stress drop and 14 individual IMs in predicting the longitudinal seismic demand and reflecting source characteristics was evaluated. The results revealed that it was difficult to establish a reliable relationship between the stress drop and structural seismic demand. Owing to the complexities of ground motion and structural parameters, the individual IMs were challenging to effectively capture their characteristics simultaneously. Therefore, composite IMs have been proposed to cover the characteristics of both the source and seismic demand. The optimal solutions were derived using a multi-objective genetic algorithm, which exhibited desirable capabilities in both aspects, providing a comprehensive guide for the seismic performance assessment of regional transportation networks.

关键词： Probabilistic seismic demand analysis stochastic finite-fault method Intensity measure Uncertainties in ground motions Multi-objective genetic algorithm

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Determination and application of path duration of seismic ground motions based on the K-NET data in Sagami Bay,Japan

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Earthquake Science 2022年第4期35卷 263-279页

作者： Shiyang Chen Xiaojun Li Lei Fu Su Chen Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China Beijing University of Technology Beijing 100124China

Duration models are one of the important parameters in ground-motion *** model varies in different study areas,and plays a critical role in nonlinear structural response ***,available empirical models are being globally used in ground-motion simulations,with limited research focusing on path duration in specific *** this study,we collected 6,486 sets of three-component strong-motion records from 29 K-NET stations in the Sagami Bay,Japan,and its surrounding areas between January 2000 to October *** extracted the effective duration of 386 pieces of ground-motion records by manually picking up the S-wave arrival time and calculating the significant *** then obtained the path duration model of the study area based on the empirical equation of dynamic corner frequency and source duration of Boore(2009).Compared with the results of the available empirical models,the Fourier spectrum of the simulated ground motion from our effective duration model showed higher accuracy in the long-term range,with less fitting *** path duration model was then applied to simulate two earthquakes of M_(W)5.4 and M_(W)6.2,respectively,in the region using the stochastic finite-fault method with a set of reliable source,path,and site parameters determined for the study *** simulation results of most stations fit well with observation records in the 0-30 Hz frequency *** the M_(W)5.4 earthquake,the simulated ground motions at KNG005/KNG010/SZO008 stations were relatively weak in the mid to high frequency band(1-30 Hz)because the quality factor and geometric diffusion model used in the simulation were the averages of the entire Sagami Bay region,causing a bias in the results of a few stations owing to local crustal velocity anomalies and topographic *** the M_(W)6.2 earthquake,the simulated ground motions were relatively weak at all SZO and TKY stations,mainly because of the close distance from these stations to the epice

关键词： Sagami Bay path duration effective duration stochastic finite-fault method

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Near-fault Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Applications at the Central Ionian Islands, Greece

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PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS 2021年第9期178卷 3505-3527页

作者： Bonatis, Pavlos Akinci, Aybige Karakostas, Vasileios Papadimitriou, Eleftheria Kaviris, George Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki Dept Geophys Thessaloniki 54124 Greece Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol Via Vigna Murata 605 I-00143 Rome Italy Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens Dept Geophys & Geotherm Panepistimiopolis 15784 Zografou Greece

Physics-based broadband ground-motion simulations are generated for the strong mainshocks that occurred in the region of the Central Ionian Islands, on 26th January 2014 in Kefalonia (M(w)6.1) and 17th November 2015 in Lefkas (M(w)6.5). The study area is associated with frequent strong earthquakes both in the historical and instrumental era. During the last decades the network of strong-motion accelerographs in the area has been densified, and thus provided an adequate number of strong ground motion records as a means to better examine the related ground motion characteristics. In the present study, broadband ground motions for the two case studies are simulated both at selected sites and at a dense grid of points covering the affected areas. The low-frequency part of the synthetics is computed using a discrete wavenumber finite element method by convolving Green's functions with a kinematic slip model in the frequency domain. A stochastic finite fault model approach based on a dynamic corner frequency is considered to calculate the ground motions for the higher frequencies. The broadband synthetic time series are generated after merging the results obtained from the two separate techniques, by performing a weighted summation at intermediate frequencies. The simulated values are validated by comparison with both recorded Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) values and the estimated ones by using widely accepted Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). Our results indicate that both the spatial distribution and the amplification pattern of the simulated ground motions, in the near-field, in terms of PGA and PGV are highly influenced by the slip heterogeneity and the maximum slip patches within the seismic source.

关键词： Strong ground motion near-source ground motion stochastic finite-fault method discrete wavenumber method Ionian Islands

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Simulation of Strong Ground Motions From the October 30, 2020, Samos Earthquake and Validations Against Observed Records, Intensity Distributions, and Damages in Izmir, Türkiye

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JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 2024年第5期18卷

作者： Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh Askan, Aysegul Univ Minho Dept Civil Engn ISISE ARISE Campus Azurem P-4800058 Guimaraes Portugal Middle East Tech Univ Dept Civil Engn & Earthquake Studies TR-06800 Ankara Turkiye

An earthquake of Mw = 7.0 occurred on October 30, 2020, in the Aegean Sea near Samos Island, which caused severe structural damage in Bayrakl & imath;, Izmir (T & uuml;rkiye), located around 70 km from the epicenter. To investigate the source, path, and site effects, ground motions recorded in Western Anatolia are simulated using the stochastic finite-fault method based on a dynamic corner frequency approach. The input model parameters are calibrated using the recorded motions at selected 10 stations within an epicentral distance of less than 100 km. The soil amplifications are modeled using horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios and generic amplification factors. At most stations, including a few within Izmir Bay, amplitudes and frequency contents are modeled closely. Minor discrepancies within particular frequency bands can be attributed to insufficient representation of the local site effects. Finally, distributions of observed and simulated felt intensities are found to be consistent.

关键词： The October 30, 2020 Samos earthquake stochastic finite-fault method local site effects structural damage felt intensity

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A stochastic method for Simulating Near-Field Seismograms: Application to the 2016 Tottori Earthquake

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EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE 2021年第11期8卷

作者： Dang, Pengfei Liu, Qifang Xia, Songlin Ma, Wanjun Guangzhou Univ Sch Civil Engn Guangzhou Peoples R China Suzhou Univ Sci & Technol Sch Civil Engn Suzhou Peoples R China China Earthquake Adm Inst Engn Mech Key Lab Earthquake Engn & Engn Vibrat Harbin Peoples R China

A stochastic finite-fault approach based on corner frequency (EXSIM) is applied to simulate the Tottori M-w 6.2 earthquake. The parameter kappa(0) is calculated based on ground motion recordings. Other parameters, such as quality factor (127f(0.61)) and stress drop (27.97 bars) are taken from our earlier work. The slip distribution refers to the results of Kubo et al. (2017, https://***/10.1186/s40623-017-0714-3). The geometric spreading function and ground motion duration are taken from Atkinson and Boore (1995, ttps://***/10.1785/bssa0850010017). The simulated results match well with the observed values in a short period (T < 1 s). In addition, the effects of hanging wall (HW) and footwall (FW) on the simulated values are discussed. The results show that the simulated results of HW stations are more consistent with the observed values than those of FW stations. The differences between simulated Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA) and observed PSA with epicentral distance and azimuth are also analyzed. The results show that the local site amplification and geometric location of stations influence the simulation results for soft soil sites. Overall, the simulated ground motions obtained by applying EXSIM approach matched well with the observed recordings which could be considered as the basis for earthquake-resistant design during the post-disaster recovery and could become a powerful tool for earthquake ground motion prediction.

关键词： Tottori earthquake stochastic finite-fault method local site effect azimuth ground motion duration

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