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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Sustainability Index in Waste-to-Energy Conversion Scenarios Using system dynamics modeling

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ENERGIES 2025年第9期18卷 2346-2346页

作者： Shahbazi, Ali Moeinaddini, Mazaher Sinha, Rajib Abdoli, Mohammad Ali Hosseinzadeh, Mahnaz Fard, Neamatollah Jaafarzadeh Haghighi Azizi, Shoaib Univ Tehran Fac Nat Resources Dept Environm Sci Karaj Iran KTH Royal Inst Technol Dept Sustainable Dev Environm Sci & Engn SEED S-10044 Stockholm Sweden Univ Tehran Fac Environm Dept Environm Engn Tehran Iran Univ Sheffield Sheffield Univ Management Sch Sheffield S10 2TN England Ahvaz Jundishapur Univ Med Sci Med Basic Sci Res Inst Environm Technol Res Ctr Ahvaz Iran

This study aims to evaluate various waste-to-energy conversion scenarios in terms of their potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve sustainability based on economic and environmental outcomes. To achieve this, a comprehensive waste management model was developed using the system dynamics approach in the Vensim software to predict waste generation and composition and compare pyrolysis, incineration, gasification, and sanitary landfill scenarios with the baseline scenario over 25 years (2025-2050). The analysis of different waste management scenarios highlights the superior performance of pyrolysis in terms of energy recovery, economic profit, GHG emissions reduction, environmental outcomes, and long-term sustainability. Results show that the pyrolysis scenario generates the highest electricity, with a cumulative net electricity output of 10,469 GWh. Although pyrolysis has GHG emissions due to energy consumption and direct process emissions, it results in the largest net reduction in GHG emissions, primarily due to avoided emissions from increased electricity generation, leading to a 346% reduction compared to the baseline scenario. Furthermore, the pyrolysis scenario demonstrates the highest economic profit at 354 million USD and the highest sustainability index (SI) at 499 million USD. The cumulative SI from 2025 to 2050 shows a 503% increase compared to the business-as-usual scenario, highlighting its superior sustainability performance. This study highlights the importance of strategic waste-to-energy planning in reducing GHG emissions and promoting sustainability. It also offers valuable insights for policymakers and researchers, supporting the development of sustainable waste management strategies and effective efforts for climate change mitigation.

关键词： waste-to-energy (WtE) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sustainability index (SI) system dynamics modeling climate change mitigation

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Surface water resource assessment of paddy rice production under climate change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: a system dynamics modeling approach

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JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2020年第2期11卷 514-528页

作者： Nguyen Thanh Tuu Lim, Jeejae Kim, Seungdo Van Pham Dang Tri Kim, Hyeonkyeong Kim, Jeonghoon Hallym Univ Dept Environm Sci & Biotechnol 1 Hallymdaehak Gil Chuncheon Si Gangwon Do South Korea Can Tho Univ Dept Water Resources Coll Environm & Nat Resources 3-2 St Can Tho City Vietnam Hanshin Univ Div Informat & Telecommun 159 Insubong Ro Seoul South Korea Korea Res Inst Chem Technol Greenhouse Gas Separat & Recovery Grp 141 Gajeongro Yuseong 15 Daejeon South Korea

Water demands and stresses in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) are of high concern for the coming decade. system dynamics modeling (SDM) can be used to understand the impacts of the changes on water resources at a regional scale. SDM framework was applied to assess the impacts of land use changes and climate on surface water resource in the VMD. The developed model was modified from a global-scale model and added in-situ specific variables to model the conditions of the VMD using historical data during 1986-2005, and future projections to 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected changes in land use and population were based on the most recent governmental resolution to support adaptation and the national plans. Temperature and rainfall changes cause the increase in water stress;however, it could be mitigated by shifting from three to two crops of rice each year. Water stress differs from place to place, such as in freshwater and brackish coastal zones. Water stress is most strongly affected by changed temperature, rather than rainfall. The developed system dynamics model and framework can be effectively applied in the VMD to support decision-making about sustainable water use for paddy rice.

关键词： climate change Mekong Delta system dynamics modeling water stress

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system dynamics modeling FOR CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT RESEARCH: CRITICAL REVIEW AND FUTURE TRENDS

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JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 2019年第8期25卷 730-741页

作者： Liu, Mingqiang Le, Yun Hu, Yi Xia, Bo Skitmore, Martin Gao, Xianyi Tongji Univ Sch Econ & Management Res Inst Complex Engn & Management 1 Zhangwu Rd Shanghai 200092 Peoples R China Texas A&M Univ Dept Construct Sci Francis Hall College Stn TX 77843 USA Queensland Univ Technol Sch Civil Engn & Built Environm Brisbane Qld 4001 Australia

As a result of growing complexities in the construction industry, system dynamics modeling (SDM) has been increasingly used in construction management (CM) research to explore complicated causal relationships at the various levels of construction and management processes. Given the rapid growth of SDM applications over the past two decades, a systematic review is needed to ascertain the state of the art and further trends in the area. This paper provides the results of a systematic analysis of 103 papers from 41 selected peer-reviewed journals from 1997 to 2016. The contributions of the papers are first analyzed, structured and formulated in terms of the year of publication, software involved, the combined use with other methods, and research design. With the assistance of the a keyword co-occurrence network analysis, eight research topics involving different internal and external complexities are identified, including: (1) sustainability, (2) project planning and control, (3) performance and effectiveness, (4) strategic management, (5) site and resource management, (6) risk analysis and management, (7) knowledge management, and (8) organization and stakeholder management. The analysis results reveal the pivotal role of SDM in streamlining different complicated casual relationships at the activity, project, and industry levels across the eight topics and its significant potential in uncovering the impact of complicated contextual conditions on project planning and control, effectiveness and performance, strategic management, and sustainability at the project and industry levels. Lastly, trends and recommendations for SDM applications are provided for future CM research. This paper provides a state of the art of SDM in CM applications and insights into opportunities and useful references for the future.

关键词： system dynamics modeling construction management review

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Analysis and forecast of water supply and demand in beijing through system dynamics modeling

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URBAN WATER JOURNAL 2020年第6期17卷 512-524页

作者： Luo, Longxi Wu, Jianping Hu, Hongchang Chen, Yun Xu, Zhe Tsinghua Univ Dept Civil Engn Beijing Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ Dept Hydraul Engn Beijing Peoples R China Hangzhou Dianzi Univ Sch Automat Engn Hangzhou Peoples R China

Beijing, the capital of China, has a fast-growing economy but is known for water scarcity. Therefore, relieving plans such as wastewater utilization and South-to-North-Transfer are implemented. Therefore, relationships are complicated among components in Beijing's water supply-and-demand system. Maintaining the water balance in Beijing is crucial both economically and politically. However, few have directly addressed the problem systematically recently. Therefore, the system dynamics (SD) approach is applied for modeling of the water supply-and-demand system. The objective is to investigate and forecast water balance, and to identify and propose solutions for potential challenges. The SD approach is a popular computer-aided systematic method for investigating intricate behaviors of complicated systems. A serious water shortage in Beijing in a few years is forecast because current relieving plans will reach their limits. Restricting certain water demands and improving water reclamation is recommended. There is an urgent need to develop and implement sustainable methods for Beijing.

关键词： Water supply and demand balance system dynamics modeling water shortage Beijing forecast and sensitivity test

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Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling

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HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH 2020年第1期18卷 85-85页

作者： Morii, Yasuhiro Furuta, Seiichi Ishikawa, Tomoki Fujiwara, Kensuke Yamashina, Hiroko Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Hokkaido Univ Fac Hlth Sci Sapporo Hokkaido Japan Hokkaido Univ Sci Dept Pharm Sapporo Hokkaido Japan Inst Hlth Econ & Policy Tokyo Japan Otaru Univ Grad Sch Commerce Otaru Hokkaido Japan

Background Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people's health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population's needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. Methods The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015-2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. Results The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. Conclusion Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015-2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversu

关键词： Health human resourcing Pharmacists Forecasting system dynamics modeling

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Moving alcohol prevention research forwardPart II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling

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ADDICTION 2018年第2期113卷 363-371页

作者： Apostolopoulos, Yorghos Lemke, Michael K. Barry, Adam E. Lich, Kristen Hassmiller Texas A&M Univ Complex & Computat Populat Hlth Grp College Stn TX USA Texas A&M Univ Dept Hlth & Kinesiol College Stn TX USA Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill Dept Hlth Policy & Management Chapel Hill NC USA

Background and aimsGiven the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling;(2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research;and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. Methodssystem dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational propertiesstocks, flows and feedbackscapture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches;in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. ResultsThe process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques;(2) model formulation;(3) model calibration;(4) model testing and validation;and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. ConclusionsCommunity-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention.

关键词： College drinking prevention complex systems science computational modeling and simulation participatory research policy system dynamics modeling

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Assessing Bioethanol Production to Fulfill Energy Demand in Indonesia Using system dynamics modeling

Assessing Bioethanol Production to Fulfill Energy Demand in ...

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IEEE-Region-10 Conference (IEEE TENCON)

作者： Mayasari, Fitriyanti Dalimi, Rinaldy Univ Hasanuddin Univ Indonesia Dept Elect Engn Makassar Indonesia Univ Indonesia Dept Elect Engn Depok Indonesia

ISBN: (纸本)9781538654576

Bioethanol is a liquid biofuel, produced from biological organism that contains appreciable amount of sugar or any material that can be converted into sugar. Indonesia had been producing bioethanol from 2007 - 2010 from molasses. The research aims to give the projection of bioethanol supply - demand in Indonesia to fulfill the mandatory target of bioethanol utilization in 2025. Using system dynamics modeling, bioethanol production is modeled by identifying the variables and the relations. The modeling and simulation is conducted in STELLA. The research shows that E5 blending will be achieved, but it will not meet E10, therefore it is suggested to expanding the cassava cultivation land at least 12.2% per year, starting from 2019 then 5.7% from 2020. But the scenario cannot cover E20 in 2025. Thus the government should expand 2.8 million Ha of cassava land. Other scenario is choosing other feedstock with higher productivity than 21.8 Ton/Ha/year and conversion efficiency more than 0.1527 kL/Ton.

关键词： Bioethanol Production Bioethanol Suppy-Demand system dynamics modeling Bioethanol Utilization Mandate

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Using Participatory system dynamics modeling to Examine the Local HIV Test and Treatment Care Continuum in Order to Reduce Community Viral Load

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AMERICAN JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY PSYCHOLOGY 2017年第3-4期60卷 584-598页

作者： Weeks, Margaret R. Li, Jianghong Lounsbury, David Green, Helena Danielle Abbott, Maryann Berman, Marcie Rohena, Lucy Gonzalez, Rosely Lang, Shawn Mosher, Heather Inst Community Res Hartford CT 06106 USA Montefiore Med Ctr Albert Einstein Coll Med Bronx NY 10467 USA AIDS Connecticut Hartford CT USA

Achieving community-level goals to eliminate the HIV epidemic requires coordinated efforts through community consortia with a common purpose to examine and critique their own HIV testing and treatment (T&T) care system and build effective tools to guide their efforts to improve it. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling offers conceptual, methodological, and analytical tools to engage diverse stakeholders in systems conceptualization and visual mapping of dynamics that undermine community-level health outcomes and identify those that can be leveraged for systems improvement. We recruited and engaged a 25-member multi-stakeholder Task Force, whose members provide or utilize HIV-related services, to participate in SD modeling to examine and address problems of their local HIV T&T service system. Findings from the iterative model building sessions indicated Task Force members' increasingly complex understanding of the local HIV care system and demonstrated their improved capacity to visualize and critique multiple models of the HIV T&T service system and identify areas of potential leverage. Findings also showed members' enhanced communication and consensus in seeking deeper systems understanding and options for solutions. We discuss implications of using these visual SD models for subsequent simulation modeling of the T&T system and for other community applications to improve system effectiveness.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Human immunodeficiency virus Community viral load Participatory Test and treatment Group model building

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system dynamics modeling and simulation of a coagulation-ultrafiltration process for the treatment of drinking water

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DESALINATION AND WATER TREATMENT 2016年第2期57卷 505-517页

作者： Zhu, Yueqi Zhang, Xuehua Zhang, Hongwei Tianjin Univ Dept Environm Sci & Engn Tianjin 300072 Peoples R China Tianjin Polytech Univ Dept Econ Tianjin 300050 Peoples R China

In this work, a system dynamics (SD) model of a coagulation-ultrafiltration (UF) process was developed using Vensim and validated with experimental data. The SD model includes the basic elements and essential structure of the coagulation-UF process system. Numerical simulations were used to optimize the operating parameters of the SD model. The simulation results demonstrated that the absorption resistance (R-a) contributed a small portion of the total resistance (R-t) (15%) in the basic experiment, where the initial permeate flux (J(0)) was 35m(3)/(m(2)h). Furthermore, the cake layer resistance (R-c) was the main cause of the total resistance (R-t) within the model. The concentration of coagulant and the removal rate of membrane fouling were positively correlated when the coagulant concentration increased from 20 to 35mg/L. In addition, the contribution of total resistance to membrane fouling was obtained from the SD model. The membrane fouling rate reached 22.5Pa/h after 16 backwashing cycles which corresponds to the predicted chemical cleaning time. The SD model presented here can provide guidance in optimizing operating parameters through numerical simulations which eschew the need for large amounts of repeated tests.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Coagulation-ultrafiltration process Cake layer resistance Membrane fouling Drinking water treatment

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Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology

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DISABILITY AND REHABILITATION 2016年第2期38卷 189-194页

作者： Jetha, Arif Pransky, Glenn Hettinger, Lawrence J. Liberty Mutual Res Inst Safety Ctr Disabil Res Hopkinton MA 01748 USA Liberty Mutual Res Inst Safety Ctr Behav Sci Hopkinton MA 01748 USA Univ Massachusetts Dept Work Environm Lowell MA USA

Background: Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. Method: system dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. Discussion: SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered.

关键词： Return to work sociotechnical systems system dynamics modeling systems thinking work disability

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