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Shedding light on decommissioning solar panel streams: A system dynamics model for volume estimation

RESOURCES CONSERVATION & RECYCLING ADVANCES 2025年 26卷

作者： Horno, Beatriz Perez Feldmann, Andreas Nuur, Cali KTH Royal Inst Technol Stockholm Sweden

The global expansion of solar energy presents a paradox: while it is a key sustainable technology, a comprehensive waste management strategy for decommissioned solar panels remains insufficient. Previous studies have examined this issue, yet waste volume estimations remain incomplete due to the exclusion of early waste streams and the failure to account for temporal fluctuations in key variables. This study addresses these gaps by employing system dynamics modelling (SDM) to capture a more nuanced understanding of the heterogeneity of decommissioned panels. The findings reveal significant discrepancies between projections from conventional static models and those generated by the developed model, underscoring the need for more adaptive forecasting methods that account for temporal variations and the evolving characteristics of decommissioned panels. Furthermore, this paper highlights the inefficiencies of uniform waste management approaches, emphasizing the need for differentiated strategies based on panel characteristics. Crucially, the findings challenge the recycling- centric paradigm by exposing the overlooked potential of functional discarded panels, advocating for circular strategies that prioritize reuse and secondary markets.

关键词： Solar panels Decommissioning volumes system dynamics model Forecast Stock and flow

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system dynamics model for the coevolution of coupled water supply-power generation-environment systems: Upper Yangtze river Basin, China

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JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2021年 593卷 125892-125892页

作者： Jia, Benjun Zhou, Jianzhong Zhang, Yongchuan Tian, Mengqi He, Zhongzheng Ding, Xiaoling Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Sch Civil & Hydraul Engn Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China Hubei Key Lab Digital Valley Sci & Technol Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China

In the emergent Anthropocene, interactions among water supply, power generation, and environment (WPE) systems are increasingly prominent due to the impact of human activity, the understanding of which calls for a holistic and dynamic coevolutionary perspective. Therefore, inspired by the nexus approach, this study investigates these three systems, integrated as a WPE coupling system. This paper aims to construct a system dynamics model from the perspective of socio-hydrology in order to predict and understand the coevolution trajectories and dynamics of the WPE coupling system. Firstly, the system dynamics model, which comprises the conceptual, stock and flow diagrams, and stylized models, is constructed to describe the dynamics of state variables of the WPE system. Then, the model is implemented in the WPE system of the upper Yangtze River basin of China. Results show that (1) the system dynamics model, which considers two-way feedbacks, is capable of modeling the coevolution of the WPE system and provides a powerful tool for exploring and understanding the emergent properties of the system;(2) the interrelation between economic development and environmental health is not entirely contradictory;however, if the economic development scale is not limited, their relationship will gradually evolve in the direction of contradiction;and (3) model parameters not only affect the timing and magnitude of the evolution trajectories of state variables but also their evolution patterns. These observations, obtained by modeling interactions across different systems, are insightful, improving our understanding of the coevolution of the WPE coupling system.

关键词： system dynamics model Socio-hydrology Coevolution Coupling system Upper Yangtze River basin

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system dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil

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ENERGY POLICY 2007年第4期35卷 2281-2286页

作者： Tao, Zaipu Li, Mingyu Northeastern Univ Sch Business Adm Shenyang 110004 Liaoning Peoples R China

American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then. a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario I of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes. Chinese oil output will grow by about 1-2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2-3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： system dynamics model ultimate-reserves cumulative-production

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system dynamics model of crises in small and medium enterprises

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ECONOMIC RESEARCH-EKONOMSKA ISTRAZIVANJA 2019年第1期32卷 168-186页

作者： Vojtko, Viktor Rolinek, Ladislav Plevny, Miroslav Univ South Bohemia Ceske Budejovice Fac Econ Dept Trade & Tourism Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic Univ South Bohemia Ceske Budejovice Fac Econ Dept Management Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic Univ West Bohemia Pilsen Fac Econ Dept Econ & Quantitat Methods Plzen Czech Republic

The article aims to improve existing theories of business development and crisis management with a special emphasis on inner dynamics of crises in small and medium enterprises (S.M.E.s). For these purposes, combined perspectives of system dynamics, company life cycles, crisis management, resilience and business continuity management in S.M.E.s have been used. Based on data of about 554 crises from 183 companies collected in the Czech Republic, the most common crises types and their combinations have been identified using association rules mining method. Then, a simulation system dynamics model synthesizing the main findings and allowing scenario analysis to explain and avoid some of the crises in S.M.E.s has been developed for a case study of manufacturing company. Such a simulation model enriches the present knowledge and explains complex dynamics of crises in S.M.E.s in a novel way. When properly calibrated, this model could be used as a supporting tool for decision-making in manufacturing S.M.E.s.

关键词： small and medium enterprises (SME) crisis business management system dynamics model simulation modelling

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system dynamics model about the Mode of Energy Transmission

System Dynamics Model about the Mode of Energy Transmission

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2nd International Conference on Energy and Environmental Protection (ICEEP 2013)

作者： Yang, Shuxia Han, Qi North China Elect Power Univ Sch Econ & Management Beijing 102206 Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9783037857434

With the rapidly growing economy, the energy demand increases greatly. Due to energy distribution imbalance in the space, part of the areas lack of energy resources, relying on energy call to ensure energy security. In this paper, first of all, we put forward the steps of comparatively studying different modes of energy transmission with system dynamics model and carry out a causal analysis. Then we analyze the causality among model variables. Finally, we draft a causality diagram of model elements. Based on this, we establish quantitative relations among variables and draft a system flow diagram.

关键词： Energy transmission Coal transmission system dynamics model

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RESEARCH ON system dynamics model OF CONVEYANCE CAPACITY IN SYMMETRIC COMPOUND CHANNELS

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2005年第3期17卷 295-300页

作者： YANGKe-jun CAOShu-you LIUXing-nian StateKeyLaboratoryofHydraulicsonHighSpeedFlows SichuanUniversityChengdu610065China

Stage-discharge curves are particularly important in river basin management. For a compound channel, the stage-discharge curve is often difficult to be extrapolated to yield estimates of level for a given frequency of flow. By analyzing a large number of experimental data from Science and Engineering Research Council Flood Channel Facility (SERC-FCF) and applying system dynamics method, the authors established system dynamics model of conveyance capacity when rivers flow in an overbank mode, spilling onto the adjoining flood plain. The model was applied to a compound channel. And the corresponding simulated results are shown to attain high accurcy.

关键词： system dynamics model conveyance capacity symmetric compound channels resistance coefficient

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system dynamics model for Designing Optimal Water Strategy for Shandong Province of China

System Dynamics Model for Designing Optimal Water Strategy f...

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3rd International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development (EESD 2013)

作者： Wang, Lei Binzhou Univ Dept Math & Informat Binzhou Shandong Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9783037859735

In order to meet the projected water needs of Shandong Province in the future, the system dynamics model of water cycle system is designed. The system dynamics model of water cycle system consists of three sub-models: population growth model, water demand model and water supply model. We use the logistic growth model to forecast the population in population growth model, use the water price elasticity of water demand to show how water usage responds to price change, and analyze the desalinization rate and the purification rate of water to meet water supply. In addition, by using system dynamics modeling software, various types of models for water cycle analysis can be simulated. The model output shows this effect clearly..

关键词： Shandong Province Water Strategy system dynamics model

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Application of system dynamics model for municipal solid waste management in Khulna city of Bangladesh

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WASTE MANAGEMENT 2021年 129卷 1-19页

作者： Rafew, S. M. Rafizul, Islam M. Khulna Univ Engn & Technol Dept Civil Engn Khulna 9203 Bangladesh

The long term municipal solid wastes (MSW) management plan of Khulna city has to be focused on the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. In most developing countries, conventional system of MSW management approach has been found inadequate due to complex nature of MSW. This study presents a system dynamics (SD) model to predict generation, collection, treatment and landfill capacity of MSW until the year of 2050 to analyze the necessity for MSW management for the coastal city of Khulna, Bangladesh. Simulation results show that MSW generation increases from 168 thousand tons in year 2020 to 1.2 million tons with a per capita generation from 0.117 tons to 0.561 tons by year 2050. The total fund required for collection and landfill capacity also increases, while treatment capacity decreases over time, resulting a piling up of massive amount of uncleared MSW of 10.3 million tons in year 2050 from 152 thousand tons in year 2020. The uncleared and untreated MSW, composite index and public concern increases with time in an exponential nature for the projection period of next thirty years. The population in this model is considered as the only linear growth factor which increases from 1.5 million in year 2020 to 2.24 million by year 2050. The developed SD model also shows that the policy of only to increase collection capacity with the increased allocation of budget is not adequate for improving environmental sustainability, rather an increase of budget is essential for developing MSW treatment facility. In this study, validation methods including behavior sensitivity, data sensitivity and dimensional consistency in extreme condition has been performed to validate the model. The outcome of this SD model can be used as a dynamic testing module for MSW management policy analysis and strategic measures that can be implemented effectively in the context of developing counties. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Municipal solid waste Municipal solid waste management system dynamics model Sensitivity analysis Decision making simulation Khulna city

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A system dynamics model for analyzing the eco-agriculture system with policy recommendations

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ECOLOGICAL modelLING 2012年 227卷 34-45页

作者： Li, Fu Jia Dong, Suo Cheng Li, Fei Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Beijing 100101 Peoples R China

Ecological agriculture (eco-agriculture) is an approach to agriculture that seeks a balance between ecological and economic benefits to promote the sustainable development of both. This paper proposes a scientific method for analyzing the environmental and economic effects of eco-agriculture and simulating their long-term trend. Here, we focus on the eco-agriculture system of Kongtong District, Pingliang City, Gansu Province, China, and we build a system dynamics model named "AEP-SD" to evaluate the integrated effects of the system from 2009 to 2050. Under business as usual conditions, simulation results show rapid improvement until a peak is reached in 2027, after which the system will decline gradually. The model identifies some defects and disadvantages of the current agriculture system, such as the excessive increase of cattle slaughter, unstable production of methane, slow development of organic agriculture, and unsustainable energy structure. system improvement policies are offered and then proven by the model that they can indeed reduce the negative effects and eliminate the potential risks of system decline. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： system dynamics model Ecological agriculture Sustainable development system improvement Kongtong District China

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Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY 2010年第7期35卷 3114-3119页

作者： Ma, Tao Ji, Jie Chen, Ming-qi Harbin Inst Technol Sch Management Harbin 150001 Peoples R China Harbin Inst Technol Sch Municipal & Environm Engn Harbin 150090 Peoples R China

Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R&D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (C) 2009 Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： system dynamics model Hydrogen energy demand Forecast

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