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modeling and simulation in inquiry learning: Checking solutions and giving intelligent advice

SIMULATION-TRANSACTIONS OF THE SOCIETY FOR modeling AND SIMULATION INTERNATIONAL 2006年第11期82卷 769-784页

作者： Bravo, Crescencio van Joolingen, Wouter R. de Jong, Ton Univ Castilla La Mancha Dept Informat Syst & Technol Comp Engn Sch Ciudad Real 13071 Spain Univ Twente Dept Instruct Technol Fac Behav Sci NL-7500 AE Enschede Netherlands

Inquiry learning is a didactic approach in which students acquire knowledge and skills through processes of theory building and experimentation. Computer modeling and simulation can play a prominent role within this approach. Students construct representations of physical systems using modeling. Using simulation, they execute these representations to study the phenomena or systems modeled. However, the modeling task is complex, and students can fail to create adequate models, which prevents effective learning. This necessitates supportive measures to scaffold the modeling processes. In this paper, we address the issue of designing such support through the development of intelligent advice to be incorporated in modeling environments. The advice is based on the definition of a family of reference solutions for each modeling problem, on the comparison of the reference solutions with the students' solutions, and on the use of an advice knowledge base. This advice guides the students to the construction of a better solution, helping them acquire the knowledge required for successful modeling and for the correction of modeling mistakes. In a collaborative session, having the advice encourages discussion between students about the advice and the best way of proceeding. Empirical validations of the advice approach are presented.

关键词： inquiry learning intelligent solution analysis system dynamics modeling

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Information diffusion through social networks: The case of an online petition

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EXPERT systemS WITH APPLICATIONS 2016年 44卷 187-197页

作者： Jalali, Mohammad S. Ashouri, Armin Herrera-Restrepo, Oscar Zhang, Hui MIT Sloan Sch Management Cambridge MA 02142 USA Virginia Tech Grado Dept Ind & Syst Engn Falls Church VA 22304 USA Virginia Tech Grado Dept Ind & Syst Engn Blacksburg VA 24061 USA

People regularly use online social networks due to their convenience, efficiency, and significant broadcasting power for sharing information. However, the diffusion of information in online social networks is a complex and dynamic process. In this research, we used a case study to examine the diffusion process of an online petition. The spread of petitions in social networks raises various theoretical and practical questions: What is the diffusion rate? What actions can initiators take to speed up the diffusion rate? How does the behavior of sharing between friends influence the diffusion process? How does the number of signatures change over time? In order to address these questions, we used system dynamics modeling to specify and quantify the core mechanisms of petition diffusion online;based on empirical data, we then estimated the resulting dynamic model. The modeling approach provides potential practical insights for those interested in designing petitions and collecting signatures. Model testing and calibration approaches (including the use of empirical methods such as maximum-likelihood estimation, the Akaike information criterion, and likelihood ratio tests) provide additional potential practices for dynamic modelers. Our analysis provides information on the relative strength of push (i.e., sending announcements) and pull (i.e., sharing by signatories) processes and insights about awareness, interest, sharing, reminders, and forgetting mechanisms. Comparing push and pull processes, we found that diffusion is largely a pull process rather than a push process. Moreover, comparing different scenarios, we found that targeting the right population is a potential driver in spreading information (i.e., getting more signatures), such that small investments in targeting the appropriate people have 'disproportionate' effects in increasing the total number of signatures. The model is fully documented for further development and replications. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All

关键词： Diffusion process Online social networks Petition system dynamics modeling

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Building a system for Insider Security

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IEEE SECURITY & PRIVACY 2009年第6期7卷 30-38页

作者： Duran, Felicia A. Conrad, Stephen H. Conrad, Gregory N. Duggan, David P. Held, E. Bruce Sandia Natl Labs Livermore CA 94550 USA

Current protection strategies against insider adversaries are expensive, intrusive, not systematically implemented, and operated independently; too often, such strategies are defeated. The authors provide a systems-based framework and model for understanding important elements, their interactions, interdependencies, and gaps for insider security.

关键词： and visualization applications computing methodologies. insider security insider security systems insider threat model development modeling modeling methodologies simulation system dynamics modeling

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system Dynamic Model for Crop Production, Water Footprint, and Virtual Water Nexus

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WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 2014年第13期28卷 4467-4490页

作者： El-Gafy, Inas K. Minist Water Resources & Irrigat Strateg Res Unit El Qanater 13621 Qalyoubia Egypt

Intended for comprehensive assessment of water usage in agricultural for food production and to address its future, it is essential to scrutinize the dynamic behavior of crop production and its water footprint and virtual water trade. Through the current research a system Dynamic model that can be applied to estimate crop production, water footprint, and virtual water nexus was developed. The system could be applied to explore how water footprint of crop production and consumption change under proposed planned scenarios which differ from each other in terms of main drivers of change. The drivers of change include population, per capita crop consumption, crop trade patterns, crop yield, and climate change impact. The system is developed to be applied at the country level. A case study from Egypt was analyzed applying the developed system. Where, water footprint of wheat production (green, blue, and grey water), consumption (internal, import and export), and its virtual water balance for years 2010 to 2050 were analyzed under proposed planned scenarios. These proposed planned scenarios were varying in wheat trade pattern strategies and impact of climate change on wheat water consumption and its yield.

关键词： Water footprint Scenario building system dynamics modeling Virtual water trade balance

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Offshore outsourcing: A dynamic causal model of counteracting forces

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JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION systemS 2005年第2期22卷 15-35页

作者： Dutta, A Roy, R George Mason Univ Sch Management MIS & Operat Management Fairfax VA 22030 USA Indian Inst Management MIS Kolkata 700027 W Bengal India

Many argue that offshoring is an inexorable trend, since a variety of information technology (IT) skills have become global commodities and they are vastly cheaper in other parts of the world. According to this view, most IT work would be drained from the United States to overseas locations. However, the loss of jobs to offshoring has increased pressure to impose restrictions. On the supply side, as IT salaries in outsourcing vendor nations increase, they become less attractive for offshoring. The literature identifies multiple factors-some enhancing, others inhibiting-that affect the growth of offshoring. In this paper, we attempt to add to that knowledge by asking, "What are the mechanics by which these factors interact to produce the observed growth in IT offshoring?" We use the system dynamics methodology to build a two-country simulation model of offshoring growth that captures individual cause-effect relationships generated by its supply and demand drivers. Examined as a whole, these individual relationships reveal larger feedback loops that constitute the mechanism underlying offshoring growth between the two countries. Simulation experiments show how the dynamic behavior of offshoring is likely to evolve beyond the current high-growth period. The model contributes to our understanding of offshoring by offering a causal foundation for its growth pattern. It can also be used to computationally study different scenarios of offshoring growth.

关键词： business policy growth modeling offshoring outsourcing simulation system dynamics modeling

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Industrial water demand with water reuse

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JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 2006年第3期42卷 593-601页

作者： Liaw, Chao-Hsien Chen, Liang-Ching Chan, Li-Mei Natl Taiwan Ocean Univ Dept Harbor & River Engn Chilung 202 Taiwan Tung Nan Inst Technol Dept Environm Engn Taipei 222 Taiwan

This work establishes an industrial water demand (IWD) model for a short term estimate, which considers water reuse technologies and discharge regulations, for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in northern Taiwan. Based on the optimization of an industrial water cost system, a computerized system dynamics model (SD model) is developed to generate individual firm IWD using data from year 2000. A market IWD is further constructed for 25 IC firms in the study area and is approximated by an inverse logistic curve. Analytical results demonstrate that price elasticity varies with water price in cases involving water reuse.

关键词： industrial water demand wastewater treatment system dynamics modeling price elasticity logistic curve industrial water reuse

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Leverage risks for supply chain robustness against corruption

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INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT & DATA systemS 2021年第7期121卷 1496-1521页

作者： Liu, Xiaojing Arthanari, Tiru Shi, Yangyan Zhejing Sci Tech Univ Sch Econ & Management Hangzhou Peoples R China Univ Auckland Business Sch ISOM Dept Auckland New Zealand Shanxi Univ Sch Econ & Management Taiyuan Peoples R China Macquarie Univ Macquarie Business Sch Dept Management Sydney NSW Australia

Purpose This paper examines the establishment of supply chain robustness against corruption by utilizing risk interactions. Design/methodology/approach Based on empirical results from the New Zealand dairy industry, a system dynamics model is established to explore the underlying relationships among variables. Findings The results show that although certain supply chain risks seem unrelated to corruption, their mitigation would help mitigate the impact of corruption due to risk interactions;and mitigation of some of the risks is more effective in mitigating the impact of corruption. Leverage risks have been defined and identified in this research, which expands the extant knowledge in reducing the impact of corruption on supply chains. Originality/value The research illustrates how the impact of corruption can be studied in an integrated way with dairy supply chain SD analysis. It is a pioneering study to mitigate the impact of corruption on supply chains from supply chain robustness.

关键词： Corruption Supply chain robustness Risk management system dynamics modeling Dairy industry New Zealand

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Balancing fish-energy-cost tradeoffs through strategic basin-wide dam management

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RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2020年 161卷 104990-104990页

作者： Song, Cuihong O'Malley, Andrew Zydlewski, Joseph Mo, Weiwei Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn Durham NH 03824 USA Univ Maine Dept Wildlife Fisheries & Conservat Biol Orono ME 04469 USA US Geol Survey Maine Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit Orono ME USA

Dam management often involves tradeoffs among hydropower generation capacity, environmental impacts, and project costs. However, our understandings of such tradeoffs under a full range of dam management options remain limited, which hinders our ability to make sound and scientifically defensible dam management decisions. In order to assess the scope for theoretical tradeoffs, a dynamic model of hydropower production, important fish populations, and project costs was developed using the system dynamics modeling technique. Three dam management options investigated the likely outcomes from: dam removal, fishway installation (e.g., pool-and-weir, Denil, and fish lift), and no action. The model was applied to the Penobscot River located in Maine, United States as a proof of concept, where recent actions (i.e., dam removal and fishway construction) have been undertaken. We modeled theoretical influence of these actions on four significant sea-run fish (alewife Alosa pseudoharengus, American shad Alosa sapidissima, Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, and sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus) by developing an index of spawner population potential based on population models for each species. Optimal dam management solutions may maximize spawner population potential and energy production to 60-62% of maximum achievable values while limiting the project cost to US$17 million (44% of the maximum value). Our results demonstrate that basin-scale management strategies may increase the migratory fish restoration while preserving hydropower generation capacity. Diversification of management options (e.g., combination of fishway installations, dam removals, and generation capacity) may increase the efficacy of strategic fish-energy-cost tradeoffs.

关键词： Basin-scale dam management Fish-energy-cost tradeoffs Sea-run fish population Hydropower generation Multi-objective optimization system dynamics modeling

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Weeding through surplus: Unintended policy consequences for perishable food recovery-Insights from a community-engaged simulation model

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2024年 480卷

作者： Arroyo, Mariana Torres Luna-Reyes, Luis Romeiko, Xiaobo Xue Neff, Roni Pernicka, Natasha Crasto-Donelly, Peter Klein, Amy Pettigrew, Stacy Hosler, Akiko S. Bozlak, Christine Feingold, Beth J. SUNY Albany Sch Publ Hlth Dept Environm Hlth Sci Rensselaer NY 12222 USA SUNY Albany Rockefeller Coll Publ Affairs & Policy Albany NY 12222 USA Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth Baltimore MD USA Food Pantries Capital Dist Albany NY USA Capital Roots Troy NY USA Albany Coll Pharm & Hlth Sci Albany NY USA Radix Ecol Sustainabil Ctr Albany NY USA SUNY Albany Sch Publ Hlth Hlth Policy Management & Behav Dept Albany NY USA SUNY Albany Sch Publ Hlth Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Albany NY USA

Recovering food of high nutritional quality has become an important strategy to address food and nutrition security and waste. Food donation policies have been crafted to address these issues;however, the effectiveness and possible unintended consequences of these policies for perishable surplus remain unclear. Using system dynamics and group model building, we analyzed two donation policy approaches, namely a 'Farm to Food Bank' tax credit for farmers and an organic waste ban in New York State. We simulated the effects of these policies on the recovery and redistribution of fresh fruit and vegetable surplus from the farm and retail sectors, reporting changes in quality, availability, and waste generation of these foods within the food rescue system. Simulation results showed how donation policies can unintendedly result in inadequate provision of poor-quality food to vulnerable populations, as well as considerable increases in waste at food rescue organizations. However, enhancing the capacity of these organizations allowed the tax credit to maximize food surplus distribution and minimize waste, and improving both the quality of retail donations and organizations' capacity ensured the success of the organics waste ban. Our findings underscore the need to address systematic issues when dealing with food loss and waste in future programs and policies.

关键词： Food recovery Food donation Food waste Food security system dynamics modeling

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Future Trends and Mitigation Options for Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Developing Country of the Middle East Region: a Case Study of Lebanon's Road Transport Sector

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ENVIRONMENTAL modeling & ASSESSMENT 2018年第3期23卷 263-276页

作者： Haddad, Marc Georges Mansour, Charbel Joseph Afif, Charbel Lebanese Amer Univ New York NY 10017 USA Univ St Joseph Fac Sci Ctr Anal & Rech Beirut Lebanon

The road transport system in Lebanon is one of the most unsustainable in the Middle East region due to, in large part, the absence of a national transportation strategy. This study proposes mitigation measures based on Lebanon's commitments for reducing fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions from road transport by increasing the share of fuel-efficient and hybrid electric vehicles and increasing the utilization of the existing bus service. Results show that increasing the market share of fuel-efficient vehicles to 35% in 2040 stabilizes energy use and emissions. The addition of hybrid vehicles to the first strategy, with a target of 10% market share by 2040, leads to 11% additional savings. Increasing the share of bus passenger kilometers traveled to 45% in 2040 leads to a reversal of adverse impacts. A combined strategy of all three measures leads to 63% reductions in 2040 compared to 2010, which is even superior to their cumulative savings.

关键词： Road passenger transport system dynamics modeling Mitigation strategies GHG emissions Developing countries Energy use

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