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Simulating the service lifetimes and storage phases of consumer electronics in Europe with a cascade stock and flow model

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2019年 213卷 1313-1321页

作者： Gloeser-Chahoud, Simon Pfaff, Matthias Walz, Rainer Schultmann, Frank Karlsruhe Inst Technol IIP Hertzstr 16 D-76187 Karlsruhe Germany Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI Breslauer Str 48 D-76139 Karlsruhe Germany

Durability of products and lifetime extension through improvements in product design, repair, reuse and refurbishment are integral components of the circular economy concept. Extended service lifetimes reduce the demand for new resource intensive products and hence contribute to an increase in resource efficiency and resource conservation. However, the use of a consumer product does not only depend on its functioning. Particularly consumer electronics such as smartphones are often only used for comparatively short periods of time before they are replaced by new devices. Even though these used electronics may still have significant value and could be resold as secondhand products, they often remain in households (compartments, shelves, cellars) for long periods of time. When analyzing the effects of technical improvements for lifetime extensions of consumer products, these storage times, which are also referred to as hibernation, need to be taken into account. Hibernation counteracts efforts towards increasing the service lifetimes of consumer electronics and should therefore more strongly be addressed in the discussion about lifetime extension and higher durability. In this paper, we present a dynamic cascade stock and flow model to simulate different use and storage phases of consumer electronics in Europe. This model enables a detailed analysis of modifications in service lifetimes and storage phases. The simulation results emphasize the significant proportion of unused but functioning electronic devices when regarding overall product stocks in society. Based on the simulation results, we show that particularly for small consumer electronics such as smartphones, the systematic implementation of a cascade use system avoiding storage phases could significantly reduce total product demand and the associated resource use. Subsequently, we discuss potential measures that could lead to a reduction of storage time of unused consumer electronics in typical households. (C)

关键词： cascade use phase model Service lifetime Hibernating stocks Concepts for a circular economy system dynamics modeling

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A Spatial Life Cycle Cost Comparison of Residential Greywater and Rainwater Harvesting systems

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ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE 2021年第8期38卷 715-728页

作者： Maskwa, Rebecca Gardner, Kevin Mo, Weiwei Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn 35 Colovos Rd334 Gregg Hall Durham NH 03824 USA Univ Louisville Dept Civil & Environm Engn Louisville KY 40292 USA

Decentralized, household water systems have been increasingly integrated into the centralized urban water networks to address challenges related to water stress and shortage, sustainable water production, and network resilience. However, our understanding regarding how different geospatial, housing type, and climate conditions can potentially influence the economic and water-saving benefits of different decentralized water systems remains limited. This study combined system dynamics modeling with life cycle cost assessment to investigate the payback time and water-saving benefits of household greywater recycling (GWR) and rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems in a typical single family and a typical multifamily house across 12 different cities within the United States. We found that for GWR systems, cities had optimum tank sizes of 2-3 m(3) for multifamily housing and 0.75-0.85 m(3) for single-family housing. Optimal tank sizes for RWH ranged from 5 to 10 m(3) for multifamily housing and 4-6 m(3) for single-family housing. Percent demand met for GWR systems ranged from 70% to 90% of the designated nonpotable usages, whereas RWH systems ranged from 50% to 70% across all cities. When the tank size is optimized for payback time, the percent demand met is generally 10% lower than the highest achievable demand met. This indicates a tradeoff between sizing for minimized payback time or maximized demand met. Overall, Boston, Seattle, and Atlanta performed the best in terms of payback time and demand met regardless of housing and system types.

关键词： cross-city analysis greywater recycling life cycle cost assessment payback time and demand met rainwater harvesting system dynamics modeling

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systems thinking on the resource nexus: modeling and visualisation tools to identify critical interlinkages for resilient and sustainable societies and institutions

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020年 717卷 137264页

作者： Laspidou, Chrysi S. Mellios, Nikolaos K. Spyropoulou, Alexandra E. Kofinas, Dimitrios Th. Papadopoulou, Maria P. Univ Thessaly Civil Engn Dept Volos 38334 Volos Greece Natl Tech Univ Athens Sch Rural & Surveying Engn 9 Iroon PolytechUniv Campus Zografos 15780 Greece

Achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals depends on using resources efficiently, avoiding fragmentation in decision-making, recognising the trade-offs and synergies across sectors and adopting an integrated Nexus thinking among policymakers. Nexus Informatics develops the science of recognising and quantifying nexus interlinkages. Nexus-coherent solutions enhance the effect of policymaking in achieving adequate governance, leading to successful strategic vision and efficient resource management. In this article, we present the structure of a system dynamics Model-the Nexus_SDM-that maps sector-specific data from major databases (e.g., EUROSTAT) and scenario models (e.g., E3ME-FTT OSeMOSYS and SWIM) for the national case study of Greece. Disaggregation algorithms are employed on annual national-scale data, turning them into detailed spatial and temporal datasets, by converting them to monthly values spread among all 14 River Basin Districts (RBDs). The Nexus_SDM calculates Nexus Interlinkage Factors and quantifies interlinkages among Water, Energy, Food, Built Environment, Natural Land and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It simulates the nexus in the national case study of Greece as a holistic multi-sectoral system and provides insights into the vulnerability of resources to future socio-economic scenarios. It calculates the link between crop type/area, irrigation water and agricultural value, revealing which crops have the highest agricultural value with the least water and crop area. It demonstrates that fossil fuel power generation and use of oil for transportation are responsible for the most GHG emissions inmost RBDs and presents projections for years 2030 and 2050. The analysis showcases that to move from a general nexus thinking to an operational nexus concept, it is important to focus on data availability and scale. Advanced Sankey and Chord diagrams are introduced to show distribution of resource use among RBDs and an innovative visualisation tool is d

关键词： Resource nexus Sustainability system dynamics modeling Water-energy-food-land-climate nexus Advanced visualization tools Nexus informatics

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Evaluation of safety and social indexes in the selection of transportation system alternatives (Truck-Shovel and IPCCs) in open pit mines

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SAFETY SCIENCE 2018年 108卷 1-12页

作者： Abbaspour, H. Drebenstedt, C. Dindarloo, Saeid R. TU Bergakad Freibeig Inst Min & Special Civil Engn Freiberg Saxony Germany State Missouri Jefferson City MO USA

In any mining project, which numerous activities and various equipment are running, the safety issue is one of the most challenging matters. Accordingly, it is favorable for planners to use the safest processes and equipment in daily works. In spite of many statistical and data analysis research regarding the safety, the number of papers that consider multi-variable criteria based on a dynamic behavior are few. In this paper, common transportation equipment in mines, which are trucks and conveyor belts, are evaluated in different types of transportation systems i.e. Truck-Shovel, Fixed In-Pit Crushing and Conveying (FIPCC), Semi-Fixed In-Pit Crushing and Conveying (SFIPCC), Semi-Mobile In-Pit Crushing and Conveying (SMIPCC) and Fully Mobile In-Pit Crushing and Conveying (FMIPCC) systems. The safety and social indexes, which are the indicators of safety and social levels, are introduced and compared in different transportation systems. system dynamics modeling, as a powerful tool for simulating the behavior of a system through the time, is used to model the transportation system of an open pit mine. For this, different variables and their connections in the system, which determine the level of safety and social index, are described. It was shown that these transportation systems differently behave in case of safety and social indexes such that FMIPCC stood in the first rank in safety point of view while the Truck-Shovel system was ranked the fifth. In contrast, and in the social index, the Truck-Shovel system was titled the first and FMIPCC the last. However, for determining the best transportation system in the both safety and social indexes, weighing and normalization processes were performed. system dynamics modeling can be utilized in the making decision process, which the planners want to evaluate the behavior of the system in different scenarios. This method is capable to give an insight into the current and future state of the system for any alternative.

关键词： Safety index Social index In-Pit Crushing and Conveying (IPCC) system system dynamics modeling Open pit mine

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Dynamic life cycle economic and environmental assessment of residential solar photovoltaic systems

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020年 722卷 137932页

作者： Ren, Mingcheng Mitchell, Clayton R. Mo, Weiwei Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn Durham NH 03824 USA Univ New Hampshire Dept Nat Resources & Environm Durham NH 03824 USA

With the increasing implementation of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, comprehensive methods and tools are required to dynamically assess their economic and environmental costs and benefits under varied spatial and temporal contexts. This study integrated system dynamics modeling with life cycle assessment and life cycle cost assessment to evaluate the cumulative energy demand, carbon footprint, water footprint, and life cycle cost of residential grid-connected (GC) and standalone (SA) solar PV systems. The system dynamics model was specifically used for simulating the hourly solar energy generation, use, and storage during the use phase of the solar PVs. The modeling framework was then applied to a residential prototype house in Boston, MA to investigate various PV panel and battery sizing scenarios. When the SA design is under consideration, the maximum life cycle economic saving can be achieved with 20 panels with no battery in the prototype house, which increases the life cycle economic savings by 511.6% as compared to a baseline system sized based upon the engineering rule-of-thumb (40 panels and 40 batteries), yet decreases the demand met by 55.7%. However, the optimized environmental performance was achieved with significantly larger panel (up to 300 units) and battery (up to 320 units) sizes. These optimized configurations increase the life cycle environmental savings of the baseline system byup to 64.6%, but significantly decrease the life cycle economic saving by up to 6868.4%. There is a clear environmental and economic tradeoff when sizing the SA systems. When the GC system design is under consideration, both the economic and environmental benefits are the highest when no battery is installed, and the benefits increase with the increase of panel size. However, when policy constraints such as limitations/caps of grid sell are in place, tradeoffs would present as whether or not to install batteries for excess energy storage. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All righ

关键词： Solar photovoltaic systems Battery storage Grid-connected and standalone PV systems system dynamics modeling Life cycle assessment Life cycle costing

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From gray to green: Energy crises and the role of CPEC

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RENEWABLE ENERGY 2022年 190卷 188-207页

作者： Duan, Wenqi Khurshid, Adnan Nazir, Naila Khan, Khalid Calin, Adrian Cantemir Taizhou Univ Sch Business Taizhou 318000 Zhejiang Peoples R China Zhejiang Normal Univ Sch Econ & Management Jinhua Zhejiang Peoples R China Univ Peshawar Sch Econ Peshawar Pakistan Qilu Univ Technol Sch Finance Jinan Peoples R China Bucharest Univ Econ Studies Romanian Acad Inst Econ Forecasting Bucharest Romania

Electric power shortfalls driven by inadequate generation, electrification, and lack of clarity on the planning side have worsened Pakistan's power crises that deformed economic growth. This study focuses on the estimation of the electricity supply and demand in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) perspective and on the main reasons that motivate a transition to green resources. This paper estimated the demand-supply gap (1990-2015) and forecasted it (2016-2035), including CPEC projects using the system dynamics model. The results show that the power demand will be met by 2021, fact highlighted also by a battery of robustness tests. We find that the CPEC efforts will increase energy growth from 4.5% (1990-2015) to 14.6% (2016-2035). The capacity growth will increase from 4.9% to 12.3% during 2016-2035. Moreover, the current renewable energy production and investment (Wind & Solar Power) will not help achieve policy targets. A total investment of $4806.69 million is required to meet policy targets, while a value of $57,683 million is needed for a complete conversion to green energy. The study high-lights the challenges on the green energy path and discusses policies needed to overcome these problems.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： CPEC Electricity shortfall Green energy Renewable resources system dynamics modeling

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Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Participatory modeling to Elicit Behavioral Drivers in Environmental Dilemmas: the Case of Air Pollution in Talca, Chile

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2018年第2期62卷 260-276页

作者： Meinherz, Franziska Videira, Nuno Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne Fac Environm Nat Architectural & Construit ENAC IIE HERUSLab Human Environm Relat Urban Syst Lausanne Switzerland Univ NOVA Lisboa Fac Ciencias & Tecnol Ctr Environm & Sustainabil Res CENSEDept Ciencias & Engn Ambiente P-2829516 Caparica Portugal

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the exploration of environmental modeling methods based on the elicitation of stakeholders' mental models. This aim is motivated by the necessity to understand the dilemmas and behavioral rationales of individuals for supporting the management of environmental problems. The methodology developed for this paper integrates qualitative and quantitative methods by deploying focus groups for the elicitation of the behavioral rationales of the target population, and grounded theory to code the information gained in the focus groups and to guide the development of a dynamic simulation model. The approach is applied to a case of urban air pollution caused by residential heating with wood in central Chile. The results show how the households' behavior interrelates with the governmental management strategies and provide valuable and novel insights into potential challenges to the implementation of policies to manage the local air pollution problem. The experience further shows that the developed participatory modeling approach allows to overcome some of the issues currently encountered in the elicitation of individuals' behavioral rationales and in the quantification of qualitative information.

关键词： Behavioral drivers Qualitative research methods Participatory modeling system dynamics modeling Urban air pollution Talca, Chile

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Generating sustainable towns from Chinese villages: A system modeling approach

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JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2008年第2期87卷 305-316页

作者： Levine, Richard S. Hughes, Michael T. Mather, Casey Ryan Yanarella, Ernest J. Univ Kentucky Ctr Sustainable Cities Lexington KY 40506 USA

The great majority of China's developing towns will be extensions of already existing villages. With the prospect of hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers projected to leave their villages to become industrial workers in new and expanded towns within the next few years, new challenges will be faced. As expansion and modernization progress, this development moves from the traditional village model that operates not far from resource sustainability to increasingly unsustainable patterns of commerce, urban development, and modern life. With such an unprecedented mass migration and transformation, how can Chinese culture survive? What is to become of the existing million plus agricultural villages? How can these massively unsustainable new industrial towns survive? In the European Commission sponsored research program SUCCESS, researchers worked from the scale of the Chinese village to find viable answers to these questions. To address these issues, the Center for Sustainable Cities, one of the SUCCESS teams, studied the metabolism of several small villages. In these studies, system dynamics models of a village's metabolism were created and then modified so that inherently unsustainable means were eliminated from the model (fossil fuels, harmful agricultural chemicals, etc.) and replaced by sustainability-oriented means. Small Chinese farming villages are unlikely to survive in anything like their present form or scale, not least because they are too small to provide the range of life opportunities to which the young generation of educated Chinese aspires. As a response to this realization as well as to the many other threats to the Chinese village and its rural way of life, it was proposed that one viable path into the future would be to enlarge the villages to become full service towns with sufficient diversity of opportunity to be able to attract and keep many of the best and brightest young people who are now migrating to the larger cities. Starting with the villa

关键词： Chinese villages system dynamics modeling sustainable development

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Reactionless Control of Free-Floating Space Manipulators

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AEROSPACE AND ELECTRONIC systemS 2020年第2期56卷 1490-1503页

作者： Zong, Lijun Emami, M. Reza Luo, Jianjun Northwestern Polytech Univ Natl Key Lab Aerosp Flight Dynam Xian 710072 Peoples R China Univ Toronto Inst Aerosp Studies Toronto ON M3H 5T6 Canada Lulea Univ Technol Space Technol Div Onboard Space Syst S-98128 Kiruna Sweden

This paper presents a new dynamic formulation as well as control scheme for space manipulators in order to drive the end-effector along a desired trajectory while minimizing the base disturbances caused by the arm movements. Through the new dynamic formulation, the end-effector is viewed as a virtual base, and the end-effector variables are also considered as generalized coordinates. As a result, joint controllers can be designed without having to solve for the inverse kinematics problem and computing the derivative of the generalized Jacobian matrix. Consequently, the joint control torque can be obtained analytically through the Lagrange multipliers method. Further, the joint control torque is also obtained through a quadratic programming problem in order to take into account the joint torque constraints. Several case studies are simulated to demonstrate the new control scheme and compare its performance with that of other controllers.

关键词： End effectors Manipulator dynamics Trajectory Jacobian matrices Space vehicles Aerodynamics Free-floating manipulator reactionless control system dynamics modeling space manipulator

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Adding a Detrital Actor to Increase system of system Resilience: A Case Study Test of a Biologically Inspired Design Heuristic to Guide Sociotechnical Network Evolution

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JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN 2020年第12期142卷 121705页

作者： Watson, Bryan C. Malone, Stephen Weissburg, Marc Bras, Bert Georgia Inst Technol Sch Mech Engn Atlanta GA 30332 USA Georgia Inst Technol Sch Biol Sci Atlanta GA 30332 USA

Networking complex sociotechnical systems into larger systems of systems (SoS) typically results in improved performance characteristics including sustainability, efficiency, and productivity. The response, or lack thereof, of many SoS to unexpected constituent system failures undermines their effectiveness in many cases. SoS performance after faults can be improved by improving the SoS's hard (physical design) or soft (human intervention) resilience. The current approaches to increase resilience are limited due to the cost and necessary of human response increasing non-linearly with SoS scale. The limitations of current approaches require a novel design approach to improve SoS network resilience. We hypothesize that biologically inspired network design can improve SoS resilience. To illustrate this, a systems dynamics model of a Forestry Industry is presented and an optimization search over potential hard and soft resilience approaches is compared to a biologically inspired network improvement. SoS network resilience is measured through the newly developed system of system Resilience Measurement (SoSRM). Our first result provides evidence that biologically inspired network design provides an approach to increase SoS resilience beyond hard and soft resilience improvements alone. Second, this work provides evidence that having a SoS constituent fulfill the ecosystem role of detrital actor increases resilience. Third, this paper documents the first case study using the new SoSRM metric to justify a design decision. Finally, this case study provides a counter-example to the theory that increased sustainability always results in increased resilience. By comparing biologically inspired network redesign and optimized traditional resilience improvements, this paper provides evidence that biologically inspired intervention may be the needed strategy to increase sociotechnical SoS network resilience, improve SoS performance, and overcome the limitations of traditional resili

关键词： systems of systems resilience emergence system dynamics modeling computer-aided design design for X design optimization design theory and methodology simulation-based design systems design systems engineering

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