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Managing dams for energy and fish tradeoffs: What does a win-win solution take?

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019年 669卷 833-843页

作者： Song, Cuihong Omalley, Andrew Roy, Samuel G. Barber, Betsy L. Zydlewski, Joseph Mo, Weiwei Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn Durham NH 03824 USA Univ Maine Dept Wildlife Fisheries & Conservat Biol Orono ME USA Univ Maine Senator George J Mitchell Ctr Sustainabil Solut Orono ME USA US Geol Survey Maine Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit Orono ME USA

Management activities to restore endangered fish species, such as dam removals, fishway installations, and periodic turbine shutdowns, usually decrease hydropower generation capacities at dams. Quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between energy production and fish population recovery related to dam decision-making is still lacking. In this study, an integrated hydropower generation and age-structured fish population model was developed using a system dynamics modeling method to assess basin-scale energy-fish tradeoffs under eight dam management scenarios. This model ran across 150 years on a daily time step, applied to five hydroelectric dams located in the main stem of the Penobscot River, Maine. We used alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) to be representative of the local diadromous fish populations to link projected hydropower production with theoretical influences on migratory fish populations on the model river system. Our results show that while the five dams can produce around 427 GWh/year of energy, without fishway installations they would contribute to a 90% reduction in the alewife spawner abundance. The effectiveness of fishway installations is largely influenced by the size of reopened habitat areas and the actual passage rate of the fishways. Homing to natal habitat has an insignificant effect on the growth of the simulated spawner abundance. Operating turbine shutdowns during alewives' peak downstream migration periods, in addition to other dam management strategies, can effectively increase the spawner abundance by 480-550% while also preserving 65% of the hydropower generation capacity. These data demonstrate that in a river system where active hydropower dams operate, a combination of dam management strategies at the basin scale can best balance the tradeoff between energy production and the potential for migratory fish population recovery. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Energy-fish tradeoffs Hydropower generation Turbine shutdown Fishway installation Dam removal

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Moving alcohol prevention research forwardPart I: introducing a complex systems paradigm

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ADDICTION 2018年第2期113卷 353-362页

作者： Apostolopoulos, Yorghos Lemke, Michael K. Barry, Adam E. Lich, Kristen Hassmiller Texas A&M Univ Complex & Computat Populat Hlth Grp College Stn TX USA Texas A&M Univ Dept Hlth & Kinesiol College Stn TX USA Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill Dept Hlth Policy & Management Chapel Hill NC USA

Background and aimsThe drinking environment is a complex system consisting of a number of heterogeneous, evolving and interacting components, which exhibit circular causality and emergent properties. These characteristics reduce the efficacy of commonly used research approaches, which typically do not account for the underlying dynamic complexity of alcohol consumption and the interdependent nature of diverse factors influencing misuse over time. We use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as an example for framing our argument for a complex systems paradigm. MethodsA complex systems paradigm, grounded in socio-ecological and complex systems theories and computational modeling and simulation, is introduced. Theoretical, conceptual, methodological and analytical underpinnings of this paradigm are described in the context of college drinking prevention research. ResultsThe proposed complex systems paradigm can transcend limitations of traditional approaches, thereby fostering new directions in alcohol prevention research. By conceptualizing student alcohol misuse as a complex adaptive system, computational modeling and simulation methodologies and analytical techniques can be used. Moreover, use of participatory model-building approaches to generate simulation models can further increase stakeholder buy-in, understanding and policymaking. ConclusionsA complex systems paradigm for research into alcohol misuse can provide a holistic understanding of the underlying drinking environment and its long-term trajectory, which can elucidate high-leverage preventive interventions.

关键词： Agent-based modeling college drinking prevention complex systems science computational modeling and simulation policy system dynamics modeling

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A strategic analysis model of residents' travel demand for Shanghai 2035 under new technology

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 2023年第12期17卷 1337-1355页

作者： Zhang, Xuenuo Yang, Chao Yuan, Quan Tongji Univ Urban Mobil Inst Shanghai Peoples R China Tongji Univ Coll Transportat Engn Shanghai Peoples R China Tongji Univ Urban Mobil Inst Room 509 Tongda BldgJiading Campus Shanghai Peoples R China

Mobility is a vast and comprehensive system where many new multimodal technology revolutions occur. To make strategies of sustainable development, policy makers particularly focus on the residents' trip scenarios in the long-term future affected by policies but not the extreme accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we construct a strategic and integrated model of residents' travel demand and trip pattern based on system dynamics methods. Changes from and relationships between policies, markets and consumers under electrification, automation and sharing revolution in mobility have been considered in this model. This model follows the utility methods in travel cost calculation from MARS and retains the original framework of travel pattern. Moreover, it includes new modes and models under technology revolutions such as (1) new sharing patterns: paratransit;(2) new travel modes: customized shuttle bus and sharing cars and (3) new vehicle models: EVs and Avs. As using the three-level classification system of ownership-mode-model, this strategic analysis model demonstrated a comprehensive structure of future mobility. The validity of model was verified through a case study of Shanghai 2035 with three scenarios developed under possible policy directions.

关键词： Automation electrification future mobility system dynamics modeling travel demand forecasting urban planning

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Incorporating Hydrologic Uncertainty in Industrial Economic Models: Implications of Extreme Rainfall Variability on Metal Mining Investments

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MINE WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT 2019年第2期38卷 447-462页

作者： Savolainen, Jyrki Pedretti, Daniele Collan, Mikael LUT Univ Yliopistonkatu 34 Lappeenranta 53850 Finland Geol Survey Finland GTK Vuorimiehentie 5 Espoo 02150 Finland Univ Milano UNIMI Dipartimento Sci Terra A Desio Via Mangiagalli 34 I-20133 Milan Italy

Water balance uncertainties have long been known to lead to potential environmental hazards, but their effect on economic profitability of mines is an under-studied field of research. Historical rainfall data are analyzed using the extreme value theory (EVT) and the peak over threshold method (POT). The resulting distributions are used as inputs into a system dynamics techno-economic metal mining investment profitability model, and simulation analysis is performed. The proposed methodology incorporates rainfall extremes and uncertainty into techno-economic modeling of metal mining operations. A case study with real-life historical rainfall data was used to illustrate the relationship between hydrologic uncertainty and the economic value of a metal mining investment. ResumenEs ampliamente reconocido que las incertidumbres del balance hidrico conducen a peligros ambientales potenciales pero su efecto en la rentabilidad economica de las minas es un campo de investigacion poco estudiado. Los datos historicos de lluvia son analizan utilizando la teoria del valor extremo (EVT) y el metodo de pico sobre umbral (POT). Las distribuciones resultantes se utilizan como entradas en un modelo tecnico-economico de rentabilidad de la inversion en mineria metalurgica y se realiza un analisis de simulacion. La metodologia propuesta incorpora extremos de lluvia e incertidumbre en el modelado tecnico-economico de las operaciones de mineria de metales. Se utilizo un estudio de caso con datos historicos de lluvia de la vida real para ilustrar la relacion entre la incertidumbre hidrologica y el valor economico de una inversion en mineria de metales.

关键词： Open pit flooding Temporary mine shutdown Investment analysis system dynamics modeling Extreme rainfall events

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Product-service systems in solar PV deployment programs: What can we learn from the California Solar Initiative?

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RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2019年 140卷 145-157页

作者： Schmidt-Costa, Jean Rodrigo Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio Possamai, Osmar Univ Fed Santa Catarina Grad Program Ind Engn Campus UFSC BR-88040900 Florianopolis SC Brazil

The product-service system (PSS) model is a potential alternative for increasing the adoption of PV systems. The California Solar Initiative (CSI) incentive program aiming to expand the Solar PV installed base in California, included the PSS option. Little is known, however, about the contribution of the PSS model on the CSI program and if the CSI program acted as a catalyzer of long-term positive/secondary effects. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to twofold, first, to assess the contribution of the PSS model on the CSI program and second, to investigate if the CSI program generated long-term network externalities. A system dynamics model was built in order to visualize i) the influence of the PSS model on the CSI and ii) the long-term effects, i.e. network externalities of the CSI program. The results suggest, the PSS model led to a significant increase in the installed base of the program and in turn, the program led to positive network externalities.

关键词： Product-service systems Solar PV system dynamics modeling Bass Diffusion Model Diffusion theory

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Exploring causal mechanisms and essential factors in the prevention and control of chlamydia in Guangdong, Southern China: a study protocol

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BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2023年第1期23卷 1-8页

作者： He, Wenjun Zhao, Peizhen Yang, Tao Wan, Yuting Wu, Dadong Chen, Xiaoshan Huang, Zizhen Luo, Huanyuan Xu, Dong (Roman) Huang, Shujie Wang, Cheng Southern Med Univ Sch Publ Hlth Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Hlth Management Acacia Lab Implementat Sci Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Dermatol Hosp Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Inst Global Hlth Guangzhou Peoples R China Guizhou Med Univ Sch Publ Hlth Key Lab Environm Pollut Monitoring & Dis Control Minist Educ Guiyang Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Hlth Management Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Affiliated Shenzhen Matern & Child Healthcare Hosp Shenzhen Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Hlth Management Acacia Lab Implementat Sci Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Dermatol Hosp Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Ctr World Hlth Org Studies Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Hlth Management Dept Hlth Management Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Hlth Management Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Ctr World Hlth Org Studies Sch Hlth Management Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Inst Global Hlth SIGHT Acacia Lab Implementat Sci Guangzhou Peoples R China Southern Med Univ Sch Publ Hlth Acacia Lab Implementat Sci Guangzhou Peoples R China

BackgroundChlamydia Trachomatis (CT) is among the most prevalent sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) globally. According to the World Health Organization, more than 131 million people get infected with CT annually. CT is usually transmitted via sexual contact or perinatal exposure and can result in severe long-term complications. In developing nations, particularly, the prevention and control of CT is challenging. Hence, this study will explore the feedback mechanisms of chlamydia prevention and control, as well as identify the essential factors affecting the control and prevention of this infection in *** study will employ a mixed-methods research design that encompasses both qualitative and quantitative methods. Firstly, we will develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) based on the literature review and optimize it via in-depth interviews with stakeholders. Additionally, we will utilize a quantitative method called MICMAC(Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification tool) to obtain consensus among different stakeholders and pinpoint the key information. Next, the CLD will be transformed into a system dynamics model (SDM) to evaluate the feedback mechanisms within the CLD. The causality in the CLD will be modeled using mathematical equations, which facilitate the transformation into an SDM. As such, we will be able to analyze the dynamic behavior of the system and its response to different *** study offers a systematic perspective on the control and prevention of chlamydia infection through system dynamics modeling, examining the dynamic properties and background factors of the system. The creation of the CLD affords stakeholders the chance to comprehend the functionality of their relationships and improve cooperation. Consequently, by evaluating the outcomes of these simulations, it will be possible to analyze and determine potential interventions and their effects on chlamydia infections. This modeling appr

关键词： Chlamydia prevention and control Causal loop diagram system dynamics modeling Intervention development Feedback mechanisms

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Performance of flooded flexible pavements: A data-driven sensitivity analysis considering soil moisture fluctuations

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TRANSPORTATION GEOTECHNICS 2024年 45卷

作者： Ajorlou, Elham Mousavi, Sayedmasoud Ghayoomi, Majid Dave, Eshan, V Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn Durham NH 03824 USA Geocomp Inc Acton MA USA

The design of pavement systems relies on sensitivity of their performance to moisture variations;yet traditional sensitivity analysis have limitations in understanding the complex interplays affecting pavement performance, and they can be computationally expensive. This study introduces a novel approach of employing system dynamics Models (SDM) to assess the factors influencing flexible pavement performance under moisture variations. A data-driven Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) can complement traditional methods such as Local Sensitivity Analysis (LSA) and feature ranking, providing a deeper understanding of interconnections. Utilizing Latin Hypercube Sampling, input variable samples are generated to facilitate data-driven GSA. To balance prediction accuracy with computational efficiency, a Random Forest ensemble is developed as a multitarget surrogate model. Key findings underscore the interplay between resilience modulus and pavement layer thickness as well as the significance of subgrade soil particle size for coarse-grained subgrades, while subbase aggregate properties show negligible influence. In fine-grained subgrades, soil plasticity index plays a vital role in peak surface deflection. Additionally, the study uncovers the critical impact of precipitation variables on deflection timing. By predicting these critical timings, informed traffic management measures can be contemplated, enhancing road user safety. This research highlights the importance of tailoring pavement design strategies to specific subgrade characteristics and environmental conditions. Moreover, the study recommends adoption of the proposed sensitivity analysis workflow to delve into the various parameters interactions in infrastructure system design.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Data -driven sensitivity analysis Flexible pavement Surface deflection Flooded pavement assessment

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Impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from non-ETS district heating in Latvia using system dynamic approach

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 2018年第2期9卷 111-121页

作者： Ziemele, Jelena Cilinskis, Einars Zogla, Gatis Gravelsins, Armands Blumberga, Andra Blumberga, Dagnija Riga Tech Univ Inst Energy Syst & Environm Azenes Iela 12-1 LV-1048 Riga Latvia

A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union (EU) Emission Trading system (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamic model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Eight development scenarios were examined, taking into account different policy mixes for the transition of the heat network to the low-temperature regime. The heat tariff was used as the main indicator to determine the pace and structure of the technology change. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump, and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. modeling results show substantial CO2 reduction potential;however, the results are highly dependent on the applied financial instruments. It is recommended to apply a policy mix, including all the proposed policy instruments-carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient renovation.

关键词： Fourth generation district heating Carbon tax system dynamics modeling Renewable energy Sustainable energy Non-ETS emissions Latvia

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systems dynamics and the uncertainties of diagnostics, testing and contact tracing for COVID-19

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METHODS 2021年 195卷 77-91页

作者： Fair, Jeanne M. LeClaire, Rene J. Dauelsberg, Lori R. Ewers, Mary Pasqualini, Donatella Cleland, Tim Rosenberger, William Los Alamos Natl Lab Biosecur & Publ Hlth Los Alamos NM 87545 USA Los Alamos Natl Lab Intelligence & Syst Anal Los Alamos NM USA Los Alamos Natl Lab Informat Syst & Modeling Los Alamos NM USA

The current COVID-19 pandemic contains an unprecedented amount of uncertainty and variability and thus, there is a critical need for understanding of the variation documented in the biological, policy, sociological, and infrastructure responses during an epidemic to support decisions at all levels. With the significant asymptomatic spread of the virus and without an immediate vaccine and pharmaceuticals available, the best feasible strategies for testing and diagnostics, contact tracing, and quarantine need to be optimized. With potentially high false negative test results, infected people would not be enrolled in contact-trace programs and thus, may not be quarantined. Similarly, without broad testing, asymptomatic people are not identified and quarantined. Interconnected system dynamics models can be used to optimize strategies for mitigations for decision support during a pandemic. We use a systems dynamics epidemiology model along with other interconnected system models within public health including hospitals, intensive care units, masks, contact tracing, social distancing, and a newly developed testing and diagnostics model to investigate the uncertainties with testing and to optimize strategies for detecting and diagnosing infected people. Using an orthogonal array Latin Hypercube experimental design, we ran 54 simulations each for two scenarios of 10% and 30% asymptomatic people, varying important inputs for testing and social distancing. systems dynamics modeling, coupled with computer experimental design and statistical analysis can provide rapid and quantitative results for decision support. Our results show that widespread testing, contacting tracing and quarantine can curtail the pandemic through identifying asymptomatic people in the population.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-2 coronavirus system dynamics modeling Diagnostics

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Pakistan's energy sector-from a power outage to sustainable supply. Examining the role of China-Pakistan economic corridor

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ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT 2022年第8期33卷 1636-1662页

作者： Duan, Wenqi Khurshid, Adnan Nazir, Naila Calin, Adrian Cantemir Taizhou Univ Sch Business Taizhou Peoples R China Zhejiang Normal Univ Sch Econ & Management Jinhua Zhejiang Peoples R China Univ Peshawar Sch Econ Peshawar Pakistan Bucharest Univ Econ Studies Romanian Acad Inst Econ Forecasting Bucharest Romania

The industrial development alongside inadequate planning in the energy sector put demand-side pressure on Pakistan's energy demand. Similarly, the excessive dependency on fossil fuels has an ecological footprint. Moreover, the abuse of energy tariff subsidies and deficits had a detrimental effect on department earnings, limiting the sector's emergence and intensifying its crisis. This research examines the electric demand and supply imbalance in the context of the China-Pakistan economic corridor investments using the system dynamics modeling approach, highlights the renewable resources, and discusses the hurdles in the way of green conversion. Moreover, the study forecasts the production capacity, electric demand, and supply up to 2040. The results show that China-Pakistan economic corridor investments will uplift the production capacity up to 12.9%, whereas the average production will reach 15.8%, variables that were 5% and 4.8% before China-Pakistan economic corridor. As a result, the energy sector will be able to meet the energy demand after 2021. However, the current investment in the renewable industry will not help in achieving policy targets. The study provides targeted implications to overcome potential barriers to the green path.

关键词： Electricity shortfall system dynamics modeling China-Pakistan economic corridor investments renewable resources energy mix green energy

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