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Circularity assessment of product-service systems using system dynamics modeling

SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 2024年 52卷 124-135页

作者： Werrel, Max Klar, Matthias Aurich, Jan C. RPTU Kaiserslautern Inst Mfg Technol & Prod Syst Kaiserslautern Germany

Product-Service systems (PSS) show the potential to implement the principles of a circular economy based on their characteristics, such as the use of an extended value network or the access of the PSS provider after distribution. PSS research shows that PSS are not inherently circular but must be designed specifically towards circularity. This requires an assessment method that can quantify the dimensions of circularity. In this paper, an assessment method based on system dynamics (SD) modeling is presented that allows the use of raw materials and the generation of waste to be evaluated in the context of PSS. The SD model is based on a conceptual integration of circular economy strategies into the lifecycle of PSS. The model formulation is described in detail and validated with several tests. The capabilities of the assessment approach are presented in an application scenario. The results show that SD modeling can be used for circularity assessment and can possibly serve as a starting point to enhance circularity.

关键词： Product-service system Circular economy system dynamics modeling

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Feasibility analysis for the integration of solar photovoltaic technology to the Colombian residential sector through system dynamics modeling

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ENERGY REPORTS 2022年 8卷 2389-2400页

作者： Granados, C. Castaneda, M. Zapata, S. Mesa, F. Aristizabal, A. J. Univ Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano Fac Ciencias Nat & Ingn Bogota Colombia Univ Rosario Fac Nat Sci Dept Biol Bogota Colombia

This document presents cost analysis through system dynamics (SD) focused on the Colombian residential sector for Building Integrated Photovoltaic systems (BIPVS). The study considers the socioeconomic strata of Colombia. Strata are a classification of houses used in Colombia to charge different utility fees according to the residents' purchasing power. Studies were conducted to cover 100% of households' electric charge, calculating the price per energy unit through the Levelized cost of energy technique, which associates investment and maintenance costs based on the amount of energy generated during the equipment's lifetime. Also, grid parity and savings percentages in each stratum were calculated for each city under study. Main results reveal that the highest grid parity index is found in Stratum 1 for Bogota, Cali, and Medellin at values of 0.90, 0.86, and 0.96, respectively. For Barranquilla, the highest index is reported for Stratum 2 at a value of 0.54. The highest savings rate is reported for Strata 5 and 6 in Barranquilla at 71% and 72%, respectively. Using SD, the analysis of the avoided CO2 emissions revealed that, by 2050, the residential sectors of Bogota, Cali, Medellin, and Barranquilla would stop releasing 7,106.51 tons of CO2, 2,636.11 tons of CO2, 5,262.14 tons of CO2, and 3,291.52 tons of CO2, respectively, due to the use of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy in the residential sector. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： Photovoltaic systems Solar energy Renewable energy system dynamics modeling

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The experience of ISLANDS in deploying system dynamics modeling as an integrated policy tool

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NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM 2014年第1期38卷 67-81页

作者： Deenapanray, Prakash N. K. Bassi, Andrea M. Ecol Living Act La Gaulette Mauritius ISLANDS Ebene Mauritius

The ISLANDS project is implemented by the Indian Ocean Commission using the European Development Fund of the European Union to support the implementation of the Mauritius Strategy in beneficiary countries. This paper shares the experiences of ISLANDS in deploying system dynamics modeling in five countries in the Eastern and Southern African and Indian Ocean Region (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Zanzibar) for sustainable development planning. Lessons learned regarding the design and conceptualization of the project ISLANDS, including the adoption of system dynamics modeling as an integrated assessment tool for policy planning, are discussed. Although Madagascar and Zanzibar are not defined as small island developing States (SIDS) in the UN system, the lessons learned from these countries are applicable to all SIDS. The approach used by ISLANDS for technical assistance consists of nesting learning-by-doing, multi-stakeholder processes, and dedicated capacity-building in system dynamics modeling, as well as advocacy for the integrated modeling tool with decision-makers. While island developing States are recognized for their inherent vulnerabilities to shocks, the adoption of system dynamics modeling helps to achieve policy-induced resilience by exposing the challenges and constraints posed by the lack of reliable statistical data. Institutionalization of the tool is progressing well in the region.

关键词： system dynamics modeling integrated policy planning sustainable development Mauritius Strategy SIDS

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Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology

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DISABILITY AND REHABILITATION 2016年第2期38卷 189-194页

作者： Jetha, Arif Pransky, Glenn Hettinger, Lawrence J. Liberty Mutual Res Inst Safety Ctr Disabil Res Hopkinton MA 01748 USA Liberty Mutual Res Inst Safety Ctr Behav Sci Hopkinton MA 01748 USA Univ Massachusetts Dept Work Environm Lowell MA USA

Background: Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. Method: system dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. Discussion: SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered.

关键词： Return to work sociotechnical systems system dynamics modeling systems thinking work disability

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Moving alcohol prevention research forwardPart II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling

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ADDICTION 2018年第2期113卷 363-371页

作者： Apostolopoulos, Yorghos Lemke, Michael K. Barry, Adam E. Lich, Kristen Hassmiller Texas A&M Univ Complex & Computat Populat Hlth Grp College Stn TX USA Texas A&M Univ Dept Hlth & Kinesiol College Stn TX USA Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill Dept Hlth Policy & Management Chapel Hill NC USA

Background and aimsGiven the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling;(2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research;and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. Methodssystem dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational propertiesstocks, flows and feedbackscapture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches;in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. ResultsThe process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques;(2) model formulation;(3) model calibration;(4) model testing and validation;and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. ConclusionsCommunity-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention.

关键词： College drinking prevention complex systems science computational modeling and simulation participatory research policy system dynamics modeling

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Integrated water resources system dynamics modeling and indicators for sustainable rural community

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PADDY AND WATER ENVIRONMENT 2015年第1期13卷 29-41页

作者： Li, Yuan-Hua Chen, Pei-Yuan Lo, Wei-Hsuan Tung, Ching-Pin Natl Taiwan Univ Dept Bioenvironm Syst Engn Taipei 10764 Taiwan

The water resources management may face serious challenges under climate change. In order to efficiently utilize water resources and reduce loadings on centralized water supply systems, it is necessary for each water user to reduce their water requirements. Rural community consumes the great portion of water resources in Taiwan due to high irrigation water demands and thus is concerned in this study. The rural community considers having both external domestic water supply and irrigation systems, and installing reuse system and constructed wetland to provide harvested rainwater and reclaimed water. The purpose of this study is to establish an integrated water resources system dynamics model and propose indicators for quantitatively evaluating the water supply system of a rural community. The three indicators are designed to evaluate water saving efficiency, tolerance of drought duration, and influence of insufficient irrigation water on crop yields. The results show that the combination of the constructed wetland and reuse system possesses more eminent stability than the reuse system alone. The integrated water resources system may reduce up to 32 % of domestic water demands and 7.8 % of irrigation water demands from external systems, respectively. At the same time, the domestic system owns higher resilience. In conclusion, the results indicate that the reuse system and constructed wetland can significantly improve the stability and resilience of water supply system. The study on integrated water resources system for rural community desires more researches. Besides, the influence of climate change and water quality of reclaimed water should be further considered.

关键词： Integrated water resources management system dynamics modeling Rural community Rainwater harvesting Reclaimed water

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Effects of workload on medication administration errors in nursing: an analysis based on system dynamics modeling

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SIMULATION-TRANSACTIONS OF THE SOCIETY FOR modeling AND SIMULATION INTERNATIONAL 2023年第9期99卷 885-902页

作者： Jin, Haizhe Xiao, Zhibin Yao, Junhan Gong, Zibo Wang, Haiying Zhao, Yinan Northeastern Univ Sch Business Adm Dept Ind Engn Shenyang Peoples R China Northeastern Univ Sch Business Adm Shenyang Peoples R China Tianjin Univ Sch Econ Management Tianjin Peoples R China China Med Univ Dept Radiol Shengjing Hosp Shenyang Peoples R China Zhejiang A&F Univ Sch Art Design Hangzhou Peoples R China China Med Univ Dept Neurol Affiliated Hosp 1 Shenyang Peoples R China Zhejiang A&F Univ Sch Art Design 666 Wusu St Hangzhou 311300 Zhejiang Peoples R China China Med Univ Dept Neurol Affiliated Hosp 1 Shenyang 110001 Liaoning Peoples R China

Medication administration errors account for a relatively high proportion of medical errors, with more than 50% occurring at the nursing administration stage. Nursing is characterized by a large amount of work, rigid working hours, high information cognitive intensity, and frequent information updates. The high workload of nurses is a significant cause of medication administration errors. In this study, a literature analysis was used to determine the elements of the system dynamics model, and the causal loop diagram was used to draw the relationship framework among the elements. Vensim personal learning edition and interview surveys were then used for model validation and simulation. First, 302 case analyses of medication administration errors collected from the three metropolitan area hospitals were used to construct the causal loop diagram, the stock and flow map of the medication administration error system, and the dynamics model;second, the model was tested from theoretical and historical data simulation perspectives;finally, the system dynamics model proposed in this study was used to simulate a medical institution from overtime and policy perspectives. Through system dynamics modeling, the inducing mechanism of workload on medication administration errors in nursing operations was elucidated, and corresponding suggestions for prevention were provided. In addition, ideas and basis for optimizing the medication administration process, improving workload, and preventing medication administration errors considering workload were provided.

关键词： Medication administration error nursing causal loop diagram system dynamics modeling

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Analysis and forecast of water supply and demand in beijing through system dynamics modeling

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URBAN WATER JOURNAL 2020年第6期17卷 512-524页

作者： Luo, Longxi Wu, Jianping Hu, Hongchang Chen, Yun Xu, Zhe Tsinghua Univ Dept Civil Engn Beijing Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ Dept Hydraul Engn Beijing Peoples R China Hangzhou Dianzi Univ Sch Automat Engn Hangzhou Peoples R China

Beijing, the capital of China, has a fast-growing economy but is known for water scarcity. Therefore, relieving plans such as wastewater utilization and South-to-North-Transfer are implemented. Therefore, relationships are complicated among components in Beijing's water supply-and-demand system. Maintaining the water balance in Beijing is crucial both economically and politically. However, few have directly addressed the problem systematically recently. Therefore, the system dynamics (SD) approach is applied for modeling of the water supply-and-demand system. The objective is to investigate and forecast water balance, and to identify and propose solutions for potential challenges. The SD approach is a popular computer-aided systematic method for investigating intricate behaviors of complicated systems. A serious water shortage in Beijing in a few years is forecast because current relieving plans will reach their limits. Restricting certain water demands and improving water reclamation is recommended. There is an urgent need to develop and implement sustainable methods for Beijing.

关键词： Water supply and demand balance system dynamics modeling water shortage Beijing forecast and sensitivity test

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system dynamics modeling-based Study of Contingent Sourcing under Supply Disruptions

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systems Engineering Procedia 2012年 4卷 290-297页

作者： Minfang Huang Miaoying Yang Yuankai Zhang Bingyi Liu North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China

In this paper, using the methodology of system dynamics modeling, we separately build two models for a supply chain under two circumstances of supply disruptions, without backup supplier, and with a contingent supplier. The retailer's total profits are also compared under these two circumstances of supply disruptions to help the decision-makers better understanding the backup purchasing strategy. The supply chain studied only involves one retailer and two independent suppliers that are referred to as major supplier and backup supplier. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a better understanding of the impacts of supply disruptions on the system performance and by shedding insights into the value of a backup supply.

关键词： system dynamics modeling simulation modeling supply disruption backup purchasing strategy

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Using qualitative system dynamics modeling to understand overdose bystander behavior in the context of Connecticut's Good Samaritan Laws and identify effective policy options

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HARM REDUCTION JOURNAL 2024年第1期21卷 124页

作者： Thompson, Rachel L. Sabounchi, Nasim S. Ali, Syed Shayan Heimer, Robert D'Onofrio, Gail Heckmann, Rebekah CUNY Grad Sch Publ Hlth & Hlth Policy Ctr Syst & Community Design 55 West 125th St New York NY 10027 USA CUNY Grad Sch Publ Hlth & Hlth Policy Dept Hlth Policy & Management 55 West 125th St New York NY 10027 USA Univ Pittsburgh Med Ctr Sch Med 200 Lothrop St Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA Yale Sch Publ Hlth Dept Epidemiol Microbial Dis 60 Coll St New Haven CT 06520 USA Ctr Interdisciplinary Res AIDS Yale 135 Coll StSuite 200 New Haven CT 06520 USA Yale Sch Med Dept Emergency Med 333 Cedar St New Haven CT 06510 USA Yale Sch Publ Hlth Dept Chron Dis Epidemiol 60 Coll St New Haven CT 06520 USA

BackgroundGood Samaritan Laws are a harm reduction policy intended to facilitate a reduction in fatal opioid overdoses by enabling bystanders, first responders, and health care providers to assist individuals experiencing an overdose without facing civil or criminal liability. However, Good Samaritan Laws may not be reaching their full impact in many communities due to a lack of knowledge of protections under these laws, distrust in law enforcement, and fear of legal consequences among potential bystanders. The purpose of this study was to develop a systems-level understanding of the factors influencing bystander responses to opioid overdose in the context of Connecticut's Good Samaritan Laws and identify high-leverage policies for improving opioid-related outcomes and implementation of these laws in Connecticut (CT).MethodsWe conducted six group model building (GMB) workshops that engaged a diverse set of participants with medical and community expertise and lived bystander experience. Through an iterative, stakeholder-engaged process, we developed, refined, and validated a qualitative system dynamics (SD) model in the form of a causal loop diagram (CLD).ResultsOur resulting qualitative SD model captures our GMB participants' collective understanding of the dynamics driving bystander behavior and other factors influencing the effectiveness of Good Samaritan Laws in the state of CT. In this model, we identified seven balancing (B) and eight reinforcing (R) feedback loops within four narrative domains: Narrative 1 - Overdose, Calling 911, and First Responder Burnout;Narrative 2 - Naloxone Use, Acceptability, and Linking Patients to Services;Narrative 3 - Drug Arrests, Belief in Good Samaritan Laws, and Community Trust in Police;and Narrative 4 - Bystander Naloxone Use, Community Participation in Harm Reduction, and Cultural Change Towards Carrying *** qualitative SD model brings a nuanced systems perspective to the literature on bystander behavior

关键词： Opioids Opioid use disorder Overdose Harm reduction system dynamics modeling systems science Good Samaritan Laws

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