We introduce a tri-leveldefender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The...
详细信息
We introduce a tri-leveldefender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defendermodel is a mixed- integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attackermodel, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defendermodel is a linear program that re-directs flow in response to insurgent damage. We use open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. We solve this tri-levelmodel by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, we determine the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it.
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