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Machine learning algorithms predict bark coverages on saguaro cacti (Carnegiea gigantea)

FLORA 2020年 263卷

作者： Evans, Lance S. Shackley, Alexander Printy, Olivia Manhattan Coll Lab Plant Morphogenesis Biol Sci Res Labs Bronx NY 10471 USA

Bark coverages lead to the premature death of saguaro cacti (Carnegiea gigantea). Bark coverages on surfaces of more than 20 species of tall, long-lived cacti occur throughout the Americas. This study analyzed data of bark coverages on twelve surfaces on 1149 saguaro cacti from four sampling periods over a period of 23 years. Bark coverage starts on equator-facing surfaces and progresses to polar-facing surfaces. For this population, 45 % of all cacti were dead by the end of the 23-year period of study. In order to understand how bark coverages are related to cactus death, four machine learning programs were used to analyze the data obtained. Decision trees predicted rates of bark coverages and death with time as a variable with probabilities of 90 % and 99 %, respectively. Trough surfaces were better predictors of bark coverage and cactus death than crest surfaces. Left troughs of both polar- and west-facing surfaces were the best predictors of bark coverage and cactus death with probabilities above 99 %. The four machine learning programs gave complimentary results to present a unified view to predict future bark coverages over time and predict eventual cactus death with more than 99 % accuracy.

关键词： validate model algorithm WEKA 3.8 decision trees Random Forest algorithm kNN algorithm Cactus death

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algorithms predict morbidity and mortality of Saguaro Cacti ( Carnegiea gigantea ) from sunlight exposures

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FLORA 2021年 276卷

作者： Evans, Lance S. New York Bot Garden Bronx NY 10458 USA

Bark coverages on stem surfaces lead to premature death of saguaro cacti (Carnegiea gigantea). Bark coverages have occurred on surfaces of more than 50 species of tall, long-lived cacti throughout the Americas. This study analyzed data of bark coverages on 12 surfaces of C. gigantea. Among 1,149 saguaro cacti, from four sampling periods over 23 years, data of four independent algorithm programs were used to predict bark coverages and cactus death. On saguaros, bark coverage originates on south-facing surfaces and progresses to north-facing surfaces, prior to cactus death. For this population, bark coverages increased over time and 45% of all cacti were dead by the end of the 23-year study period. validate model and WEKA 3.8 predicted bark coverages with over 96% accuracy. Random Forest predicted cactus death with 99.6% accuracy and kNN predicted cactus death with 100% accuracy. Since trough surfaces occur after crest surfaces, trough surfaces were better predictors of bark coverages and cactus death. Cactus death was best predicted (above 99%) with north-right troughs with west-facing surfaces. Taken together, the four machine programs gave complimentary results and predicted (above 99%) both increased bark coverages from south-facing surfaces to north-facing surfaces over time and death of individual cacti over an eight-year period when north-facing right troughs had more than 80% bark coverages.

关键词： validate model algorithm WEKA 3 8 decision trees Random Forest algorithm kNN algorithm Cactus death Machine learning program Bark coverages

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