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Expansion planning for waste-to-energy systems using waste forecast prediction sets

NAVAL RESEARCH LOGISTICS 2016年第1期63卷 47-70页

作者： Wang, Shuming Ng, Tsan Sheng Wong, Manyu Univ Chinese Acad Sci Sch Econ & Management Beijing Peoples R China Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Singapore 117548 Singapore

We consider an expansion planning problem for Waste-to-Energy (WtE) systems facing uncertainty in future waste supplies. The WtE expansion plans are regarded as strategic, long term decisions, while the waste distribution and treatment are medium to short term operational decisions which can adapt to the actual waste collected. We propose a prediction set uncertainty model which integrates a set of waste generation forecasts and is constructed based on user-specified levels of forecasting errors. Next, we use the prediction sets for WtE expansion scenario analysis. More specifically, for a given WtE expansion plan, the guaranteed net present value (NPV) is evaluated by computing an extreme value forecast trajectory of future waste generation from the prediction set that minimizes the maximum NPV of the WtE project. This problem is essentially a multiple stage min-max dynamic optimization problem. By exploiting the structure of the WtE problem, we show this is equivalent to a simpler min-max optimization problem, which can be further transformed into a single mixed-integer linear program. Furthermore, we extend the model to optimize the guaranteed NPV by searching over the set of all feasible expansion scenarios, and show that this can be solved by an exact cutting plane approach. We also propose a heuristic based on a constant proportion distribution rule for the WtE expansion optimization model, which reduces the problem into a moderate size mixed-integer program. Finally, our computational studies demonstrate that our proposed expansion model solutions are very stable and competitive in performance compared to scenario tree approaches. (c) 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 47-70, 2016

关键词： waste-to-energy systems expansion planning guaranteed NPV extreme value forecast adaptive min-max optimization mixed-integer program

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ROBUST LOCATION PLANNING optimization MODEL FOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

ROBUST LOCATION PLANNING OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR ENERGY AND E...

引用

作者： WONG MAN YU NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE

学位级别：硕士

We consider an expansion planning problem for Waste-to-Energy (WtE) sys- tems facing uncertainty in future waste supplies. The WtE expansion plans are regarded as strategic, long term decisions, while the waste distribution and treat- ment are medium to short term operational decisions which can adapt to the actual waste collected. We propose a prediction set uncertainty model which integrates a set of waste generation forecasts and is constructed based on user- specified levels of forecasting errors. Next, we use the prediction sets for WtE expansion scenario analysis. More specifically, for a given WtE expansion plan, the guaranteed net present value (NPV) is evaluated by computing an extreme value forecast trajectory of future waste generation from the prediction set that minimizes the maximum NPV of the WtE project. This problem is essentially a multiple stage min-max dynamic optimization problem. By exploiting the structure of the WtE problem, we show this is equivalent to a simpler min-max optimization problem, which can be further transformed into a single instance of mixed integer linear program. Furthermore, we extend the model to optimize the guaranteed NPV by searching over the set of all feasible expansion scenar- ios, and show that this can be solved by an exact cutting plane approach. We also propose a heuristic based on a constant proportion distribution rule for the WtE expansion optimization model, which reduces the problem into a moder- ate size mixed integer program. Finally, our computational studies demonstrate that our proposed expansion model solutions are very stable and competitive in performance compared to scenario tree approaches.

关键词： Waste-to-Energy (WtE) systems expansion planning guaranteed NPV extreme value forecast adaptive min-max optimization mixed integer program

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