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A Public Traffic Demand Forecast Method based on Computational Experiments

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS 2017年第4期18卷 984-995页

作者： Chen, Xi Peng, Lei Zhang, Minghong Li, Wei Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Sch Automat Key Lab Image Proc & Intelligent Control Minist Educ Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Sch Automat Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Coll Publ Adm Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol Nontradit Secur Ctr Wuhan 430074 Peoples R China

The conventional mathematical models that are used for traffic distribution and traffic mode choice forecasts consider neither the individual heterogeneity on the micro level nor the changeable traffic scenes. This prompted us to propose a new forecast method composed of a traffic survey, an artificial transportation system (ATS), and computational experiments. We introduced a BDI modeling method in the agent-based ATS. This method considers an individual's psychological characteristics in combination with logical thinking, which was introduced to individual passenger agents, to deduce each passenger's decision-making process when choosing the traffic mode and route. A series of computational experiments were conducted on the ATS by using a school bus system as a case study to validate the feasibility and superiority of our method. Several computational experiments were conducted to predict the traffic distribution in normal and abnormal traffic scenarios and to analyze the extent to which each factor influences the travel modal split. Furthermore, the outcomes of various vehicle-scheduling plans were predicted and analyzed by using computational experiments to determine the optimal plan and support the establishment of transportation policies in the real world.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation belief-desire-intention (BDI) model computational experiments traffic distribution forecast traffic mode choice forecast

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How to benefit from a common European electricity market design

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ENERGY POLICY 2017年第Feb.期101卷 629-643页

作者： Ringler, Philipp Keles, Dogan Fichtner, Wolf Karlsruhe Inst Technol Inst Ind Prod Hertzstr 16 D-76187 Karlsruhe Germany

The realization of an Internal Electricity Market in Europe is currently, on the one hand, progressing, in particular thanks to the wide-spread implementation of market coupling solutions for cross-border congestion management. On the other hand, diverging national market designs pose a threat to the continuation of this process. Given the challenges to electricity market design in a multi-regional context, we analyze how different design aspects, namely cross-border congestion management and capacity mechanisms, affect welfare and generation adequacy in Europe. In doing so, we rely on an agent-based simulation model for electricity wholesale markets which we apply within several numerical, computational case studies for the region of Central Western Europe (2012-2030). Our results confirm the benefits of market coupling in terms of welfare as well as generation adequacy. Furthermore, we find indications that coordinating market designs across regions supports these targets. Therefore, we recommend that European energy policy forms a stable, transparent regulatory framework with cross-border market coupling as an integral component. In this context, energy policy targets should be clearly defined and operationalized, which also needs to consider potential conflicts between them. Finally, electricity market designs need to be coordinated among states to benefit most from a common European market.

关键词： European electricity markets Electricity market design Market coupling Welfare analysis Generation adequacy agent-based modeling and simulation

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agent-based modeling and simulation for Open Complex Systems

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation for Open Complex Systems

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2nd International Asia Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics (CAR)

作者： Zhang, Guangjun Li, Yaodong Chinese Acad Sci Inst Automat Key Lab Complex Syst & Intelligence Sci Beijing Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9781424451944

agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) offers a promising approach to deal with complexities of open complex systems. This article proposed an approach of agentbased modeling and simulation enhanced with pattern-oriented modeling strategy for open complex systems. An agent-based meta-model and its relevant model structure provided a unifying model basis of pattern-oriented agent-based modeling and simulation. This article implemented the agent-based meta-model and its structure to build a prototype system model of forest fire, a typical open complex system. The forest fire model integrated with different patterns such as CA for fire spreading, and network for fire suppressing. Dynamic simulation of the forest fire model revealed influence of these interdisciplinary patterns towards forest fire system. The results show that patternoriented agent-based modeling and simulation can be applied for open complex systems effectively.

关键词： open complex systems agent-based modeling and simulation pattern-oriented modeling meta-model forest fire model

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agent-based simulation of the dynamics of malware propagation in scale-free networks

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simulation-TRANSACTIONS OF THE SOCIETY FOR modeling AND simulation INTERNATIONAL 2016年第7期92卷 709-722页

作者： Hosseini, Soodeh Azgomi, Mohammad Abdollahi Torkaman, Adel Rahmani Iran Univ Sci & Technol Sch Comp Engn Hengam StResalat Sq Tehran Iran

agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) has been used in wide range of application areas as an effective modeling paradigm. In this work, we have used ABMS to study the dynamics of malware propagation in scale-free networks (SFNs). Firstly, we use an analytical model to formulate the malware propagation process that considers the diversity of nodes in SFNs. Secondly, for the same problem, we use agent-based simulation to model the outbreak of malware based on the rumor diffusion process. The proposed agent-based model considers a set of heterogeneous agents and interactions between them that may allow malware transmission. This model helps us to study the effects of defense mechanisms, such as software diversity and immunization, in controlling the malware propagation and thereby reducing the impacts of attacks in networks. We also investigate the effect of the vulnerability function related to the degree of network nodes to explain the diversity of node anti-attack ability in the agent-based model. The results of the agent-based simulation are nearly the same as the analytical model, which can be used to validate the simulation model. However, the agent-based model has some notable advantages, such as flexibility and dynamic reconfiguration, over the analytical model.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation malware propagation modeling scale-free networks

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Everything you need to know about agent-based modelling and simulation

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JOURNAL OF simulation 2016年第2期10卷 144-156页

作者： Macal, C. M. Argonne Natl Lab 9700 S Cass Ave Argonne IL 60439 USA Univ Chicago Computat Inst Chicago IL 60637 USA

This paper addresses the background and current state of the field of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS). It revisits the issue of ABMS represents as a new development, considering the extremes of being an overhyped fad, doomed to disappear, or a revolutionary development, shifting fundamental paradigms of how research is conducted. This paper identifies key ABMS resources, publications, and communities. It also proposes several complementary definitions for ABMS, based on practice, intended to establish a common vocabulary for understanding ABMS, which seems to be lacking. It concludes by suggesting research challenges for ABMS to advance and realize its potential in the coming years.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation multi-agent system modeling human behavior computational social simulation

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A simulation Knowledge Extraction-based Decision Support System for the Healthcare Emergency Department

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND INFORMATICS 2016年第2期11卷 19-37页

作者： Saoud, Manel Saad Boubetra, Abdelhak Attia, Safa Univ Bordj Bou Arreridj Dept Comp Sci Bordj Bou Arreridj Algeria Univ Bordj Bou Arreridj Dept Comp Sci Res Grp Comp Simulat Bordj Bou Arreridj Algeria

Nowadays, healthcare systems services have become a serious concern for many countries across the world. Due to its complexity and Variability the Emergency Department (ED) is considered the most critical unit of the hospital and the healthcare systems in general. Increasing the patient satisfaction, reducing as much as possible the patient's waiting time and the patient's length of stay, and optimizing the resources utilization are the overriding preoccupation for any ED manager. To support the performance enhancement in the ED, simulation studies have profusely been involved. In this paper the authors describe a decision support system based on the combination of a simulation and a temporal knowledge extraction model for the operation improvement of the emergency department in the public hospital Lakhdar Bouzidi in Bordj Bou Arreridj (Algeria). Their methodology points out how agent-based modeling simulation can benefit from data mining analysis methods to provide a powerful decision support system that can help managers to improve the functioning of the ED.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation Data Mining Techniques Decision Support System Emergency Department Temporal Knowledge Extraction

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Reflex-SMAS, a Complex Adaptive System: An Empirical Evaluation 7th

Reflex-SMAS, a Complex Adaptive System: An Empirical Evaluat...

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7th International MCETECH Conference on E-Technologies

作者： Assoudi, Hicham Lounis, Hakim Univ Quebec Montreal UQAM Montreal PQ Canada

ISBN: (纸本)9783319590417;9783319590400

Despite the profusion of approaches that were proposed to deal with the problem of the Automatic Schema Matching, yet the challenges and difficulties caused by the complexity and uncertainty characterizing both the process and the outcome of Schema Matching motivated us to investigate how bio-inspired emerging paradigm can help with understanding, managing, and ultimately overcoming those challenges. In this paper, we explain how we approached Schema Matching as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) and how we modeled it using the approach of agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) giving birth to a new tool (prototype) for schema matching called Reflex-SMAS. This prototype was submitted to a set of experiments which aimed to demonstrate the viability of our approach to two main aspects: (i) effectiveness (increasing the quality of the found matchings) and (ii) efficiency (reducing the effort required for this efficiency). The results, came to demonstrate the viability of our approach, both in terms of effectiveness or that of efficiency.

关键词： Schema matching Complex adaptive systems agent-based modeling and simulation

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A Hybrid Pedestrian Motion modeling Approach for Crowd simulation 10

A Hybrid Pedestrian Motion Modeling Approach for Crowd Simul...

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10th International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design (ISCID)

作者： Li, Tianlin Yao, Yiping Tang, Wenjie Yao, Feng Natl Univ Def Technol Coll Informat Syst & Management Changsha Hunan Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9781538636756

Crowd simulation are widely studied in computer graphics, games, public safety and emergency treatment fields, playing an important role in simulating crowd movement behavior and guiding crowd evacuation. The existing agent based crowd simulation approaches usually require large amount of calculation, and the real-time performance is poor. Crowd simulation based on cellular automaton (CA) model need less calculation relatively and has good real-time performance, but each individual is not autonomous, they cannot make decisions by themselves. In view of the above problems, this manuscript presents a hybrid pedestrian motion modeling approach called HACA, which is the hybrid of agent and CA model and integrates the advantages of the two modeling approaches. Through experimental validation, HACA can effectively simulate the real crowd behavior and achieve about 12% performance improvement compared with CA model in terms of simulation running time. Besides, each pedestrian is modeled as an agent and they can make decisions according to their own state and surrounding environment.

关键词： crowd simulation agent-based modeling and simulation cellular automaton

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How Bounded Rationality of Individuals in Social Interactions Impacts Evolutionary Dynamics of Cooperation 17

How Bounded Rationality of Individuals in Social Interaction...

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IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence (WI)

作者： Koohborfardhaghighi, Somayeh Romero, Juan Pablo Maliphol, Sira Liu, YuLin Altmann, Jorn Seoul Natl Univ Technol Management Econ & Policy Program Seoul South Korea Seoul Natl Univ Coll Engn Inst Engn Res Seoul South Korea

ISBN: (纸本)9781450349512

In this study, we explore the emergence of cooperative behavior in the prisoner's dilemma evolutionary game. In particular, we investigate the effect of bounded rationality of individuals on the networking topology (i.e., the individuals' personal networks). For this, we highlight the evolutionary dynamics of cooperation on top of different graph topologies with respect to their baseline properties such as average shortest path length and clustering coefficient. In addition, we test the effect of a new variable, called memory of interactions, on the changes in behavior and decision-making of the players as well as the networking outcome. For this purpose, we use agent-based modeling, which allows studying how changes in the environment or changes of properties of networked actors affect the evolutionary dynamics of cooperation among them. The results of our analysis confirm that the networking topology and the memory duration are important in affecting the emergence of cooperative behavior of players. They also impact the total utility that can be obtained from playing the Prisoner's Dilemma evolutionary game. Although the Prisoner's Dilemma game simulations tend towards full cooperation, if they are run over graph topologies with short average shortest path lengths and low clustering coefficients, the number of steps needed to reach equilibrium increases. This new result provides an understanding of the interactions of actors in a game.

关键词： Prisoner's Dilemma Game Cooperative Games agent-based modeling and simulation Average Shortest Path Length Clustering Coefficient

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Supporting the Development of agent-based simulations: a DSL for Environment modeling 41

Supporting the Development of Agent-based Simulations: a DSL...

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41st IEEE Annual Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC)

作者： Santos, Fernando Nunes, Ingrid Bazzan, Ana L. C. Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul Porto Alegre RS Brazil Univ Estado Santa Catarina UDESC Ibirama Brazil TU Dortmund Dortmund Germany

ISBN: (纸本)9781538603673

Domain-specific languages are a means of speeding up and easing software system development. agent-based simulations are simulation systems in which autonomous entities, namely agents, are developed in order to reproduce, analyze, or predict a phenomenon under study. Despite its potential, available alternatives for agent-based modeling and simulation benefit from recurrent domain-related concepts, such as domain concerns and standard strategies for creating and initializing entities, in a limited way. Such elements, when represented in models, can potentially ease the modeling and simulation. We propose a domain-specific modeling language that provides ready-to-use concepts for these recurrent agent-based simulation elements with a modularized notation. The language is targeted to the agent-based modeling and simulation domain and is currently focused on modeling the simulated environment. A user study provides evidence that our language decreases the time needed to understand agent-based simulations.

关键词： Domain-specific Language agent-based modeling and simulation Environment User Study

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