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Non-deterministic multi-level model for planning water-ecology nexus system under climate change

Cell Reports Sustainability 2024年第3期1卷

作者： Ma, Yuan Li, Yongping Wang, Hao Zhang, Yufei Zhou, Yanxiao Huang, Guohe State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Institute for Energy Environment and Sustainable Communities University of Regina Regina S4S 7H9 SK Canada

Water scarcity and ecological degradation impede sustainable development in Central Asia, which urgently calls for synergistic planning of water-ecology (WE) nexus system. However, existing management models may have large uncertainties, restricting their effectiveness. Here, we develop a copula-based flexible fuzzy multi-level programming (CFMP) method, which tackles uncertainties, such as water demands, and balances trade-offs among competing managers in top-down decision-making processes. Next, we formulate a CFMP-WE model for Central Asia (2021–2050), considering objectives of economic development, food security, and ecological restoration, and design 243 planning scenarios. We found that ecological water allocation would account for 5.9%–12.2% to support sustainable development;however, policymakers need to reduce agricultural water allocation, forgoing 7.8%–20.1% of the system benefit (i.e., economic benefit for WE nexus system). Agricultural water use would still be the largest (with 25.6%–29.4% for cereal crops to ensure food security), but its share would decline to conserve water for users like industry. © 2024 The Authors

关键词： Central Asia climate change copula-based programming multi-level programming multi-uncertainty sustainability water-ecology

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