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Application of distributed hydrological models for predictions in ungauged basins: a method to quantify predictive uncertainty

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hydrologicAL PROCESSES 2014年第4期28卷 2033-2045页

作者： Cibin, R. Athira, P. Sudheer, K. P. Chaubey, I. Purdue Univ Dept Agr & Biol Engn W Lafayette IN 47907 USA Indian Inst Technol Dept Civil Engn Madras 600036 Tamil Nadu India Purdue Univ Dept Agr & Biol Engn W Lafayette IN 47907 USA Purdue Univ Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci W Lafayette IN 47907 USA

Stream flow predictions in ungauged basins are one of the most challenging tasks in surface water hydrology because of nonavailability of data and system heterogeneity. This study proposes a method to quantify stream flow predictive uncertainty of distributed hydrologic models for ungauged basins. The method is based on the concepts of deriving probability distribution of model's sensitive parameters by using measured data from a gauged basin and transferring the distribution to hydrologically similar ungauged basins for stream flow predictions. A Monte Carlo simulation of the hydrologic model using sampled parameter sets with assumed probability distribution is conducted. The posterior probability distributions of the sensitive parameters are then computed using a Bayesian approach. In addition, preselected threshold values of likelihood measure of simulations are employed for sizing the parameter range, which helps reduce the predictive uncertainty. The proposed method is illustrated through two case studies using two hydrologically independent sub-basins in the Cedar Creek watershed located in Texas, USA, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The probability distribution of the SWAT parameters is derived from the data from one of the sub-basins and is applied for simulation in the other sub-basin considered as pseudo-ungauged. In order to assess the robustness of the method, the numerical exercise is repeated by reversing the gauged and pseudo-ungauged basins. The results are subsequently compared with the measured stream flow from the sub-basins. It is observed that the measured stream flow in the pseudo-ungauged basin lies well within the estimated confidence band of predicted stream flow. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： predictions in ungauged basin predictive uncertainty distributed hydrologic model SWAT model

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Forest ecohydrological response to bimodal precipitation during contrasting winter to summer transitions

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ECOHYDROLOGY 2014年第3期7卷 998-1013页

作者： Mahmood, Taufique H. Vivoni, Enrique R. Arizona State Univ Sch Earth & Space Explorat Tempe AZ 85287 USA Arizona State Univ Sch Sustainable Engn & Built Environm Tempe AZ 85287 USA Univ Saskatchewan Ctr Hydrol Saskatoon SK S75 5C8 Canada Univ Saskatchewan Global Inst Water Secur Saskatoon SK S7N 3H5 Canada

The ecohydrological response of forested landscapes in the Southwestern United States depends on the relative magnitude of precipitation during the winter and summer seasons. Prior climate studies have identified an inverse relation in the bimodal regime such that wet winter periods are followed by dry summers and vice versa. Despite this key prediction, the impact of contrasting winter to summer transitions on hillslope hydrology has not been investigated. In this study, we use the Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator distributed hydrologic model with modifications in the snow module to generate a consistent set of high-resolution hydrologic estimates in a ponderosa pine hillslope in northern New Mexico, United States. The model is evaluated against available observations of snow depth, soil moisture and runoff over two water years yielding reliable spatial distributions during the winter to summer transitions. We find that a wet winter followed by a dry summer promotes evapotranspiration losses that gradually dry the soil and disconnect lateral fluxes in the forested hillslope, leading to soil moisture patterns resembling vegetation patches. Conversely, a dry winter prior to a wet summer results in soil moisture increases that promote lateral connectivity and soil moisture patterns with the signature of terrain curvature. An opposing temporal switch between infiltration and saturation excess runoff is also identified. These contrasting responses indicate that the inverse relation has significant consequences on hillslope water availability and its spatial distribution with implications on other ecohydrological processes including vegetation phenology, groundwater recharge and geomorphic development. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： forest hydrology hillslope soil moisture snow depth distributed hydrologic model Southwestern United States

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On noise specification in data assimilation schemes for improved flood forecasting using distributed hydrological models

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JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2014年第PartD期519卷 2707-2721页

作者： Noh, Seong Jin Rakovec, Oldrich Weerts, Albrecht H. Tachikawa, Yasuto Korea Inst Civil Engn & Bldg Technol Dept Water Resources & Environm Res Water Resources Res Div Goyang South Korea Wageningen Univ Hydrol & Quantitat Water Management Grp Dept Environm Sci NL-6700 AP Wageningen Netherlands UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res Leipzig Germany Deltares NL-2600 MH Delft Netherlands Kyoto Univ Dept Civil & Earth Resources Engn Kyoto 6068501 Japan

We investigate the effects of noise specification on the quality of hydrological forecasts via an advanced data assimilation (DA) procedure using a distributed hydrological model driven by numerical weather predictions. The sequential DA procedure is based on (1) a multivariate rainfall ensemble generator, which provides spatial and temporal correlation error structures of input forcing, and (2) lagged particle filtering to update past and current state variables simultaneously in a lag-time window to consider the response times of internal hydrologic processes. The procedure is evaluated for streamflow forecasting of three flood events in two fast-responding catchments in Japan (Maruyama and Katsura). The rainfall ensembles are derived from ground-based rain gauge observations for the analysis step and numerical weather predictions for the forecast step. The ensemble simulation performs multi-site updating using information from the streamflow gauging network and considers the artificial effects of reservoir release. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impacts of noise specification in DA, comparing a different setup of random state noise and input forcing with/without multivariate conditional simulation (MCS) of rainfall ensembles. The results show that lagged particle filtering (LPF) forced with MCS provides good performance with small and consistent random state noise, whereas LPF forced with Thiessen rainfall interpolation requires larger random state noise to yield performance comparable to that of LPF + MCS for short lead times. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Streamflow forecasting Rainfall ensemble generator Lagged particle filtering Numerical weather prediction distributed hydrologic model

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Addressing uncertainty in reflectivity-rainfall relations in mountain watersheds during summer convection

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hydrologicAL PROCESSES 2014年第3期28卷 688-704页

作者： Moreno, Hernan A. Vivoni, Enrique R. Gochis, David J. Arizona State Univ Sch Sustainable Engn & Built Environm Tempe AZ 85287 USA Arizona State Univ Sch Earth & Space Explorat Tempe AZ 85287 USA Natl Ctr Atmospher Res Boulder CO 80305 USA

The use of precipitation estimates from weather radar reflectivity has become widespread in hydrologic predictions. However, uncertainty remains in the use of the nonlinear reflectivity-rainfall (Z-R) relation, in particular for mountainous regions where ground validation stations are often lacking, land surface data sets are inaccurate and the spatial variability in many features is high. In this study, we assess the propagation of rainfall errors introduced by different Z-R relations on distributed hydrologic model performance for four mountain basins in the Colorado Front Range. To do so, we compare spatially integrated and distributed rainfall and runoff metrics at seasonal and event time scales during the warm season when convective storms dominate. Results reveal that the basin simulations are quite sensitive to the uncertainties introduced by the Z-R relation in terms of streamflow, runoff mechanisms and the water balance components. The propagation of rainfall errors into basin responses follows power law relationships that link streamflow uncertainty to the precipitation errors and streamflow magnitude. Overall, different Z-R relations preserve the spatial distribution of rainfall relative to a reference case, but not the precipitation magnitude, thus leading to large changes in streamflow amounts and runoff spatial patterns at seasonal and event scales. Furthermore, streamflow errors from the Z-R relation follow a typical pattern that varies with catchment scale where higher uncertainties exist for intermediate-sized basins. The relatively high error values introduced by two operational Z-R relations (WSR-57 and NEXRAD) in terms of the streamflow response indicate that site-specific Z-R relations are desirable in the complex terrain region, particularly in light of other uncertainties in the modelling process, such as model parameter values and initial conditions. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： error propagation watershed hydrology mountainous regions convective precipitation distributed hydrologic model reflectivity-rainfall relation

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Comparison of Single-site and Multi-site Based Calibrations of SWAT in Taleghan Watershed, Iran

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING 2014年第11期27卷 1645-1652页

作者： Noor, H. Vafakhah, M. Taheriyoun, M. Moghaddasi, M. Tarbiat Modares Univ Dept Watershed Management Engn Tehran Iran Tarbiat Modares Univ Fac Nat Resources Dept Watershed Management Engn Noor Iran Isfahan Univ Technol Dept Civil Engn Esfahan Iran Arak Univ Coll Agr Dept Water Engn Arak Iran

Calibration of model is a critical role for hydrologic modeling in a large mountainous watershed. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated in single-and multi-site approaches to simulate streamflow. In single-site calibration, a streamflow measurement at outlet of watershed was used for calibration of SWAT. Whereas in multi-site calibration approach, we used streamflow measurements at three stations namly Galinak, Joestan and Dehdar stations. The results showed that the single-site calibration was able to sufficiently simulate the streamflow for Galinak, Joestan and Dehdar stations (Nash-Sutcliffe criteria (NS: 0.66-0.81). The results of multi-site calibration method also showed slight improvement in Galinak, Joestan and Dehdar stations, whereas it was improved in upper stations i. e. Joestan and Dehdar (NS: 0.70-0.82). But, in validation period, there were clearly adventage of results provided using multi-site calibration procedure (NS: 0.78, 0.63 and 0.64 for Galinak, Joestan and Dehdar stations, respectively) compared to single-site calibration method (NS: 0.74, 0.61 and 0.50 for Galinak, Joestan and Dehdar stations, respectively). The results of this study showed that the multi-site calibration method improved calibration of SWAT.

关键词： Multi-site Evaluation Taleghan Watershed distributed hydrologic model SWAT

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Radar Rainfall Application in distributed hydrologic modeling for Cypress Creek Watershed, Texas

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JOURNAL OF hydrologic ENGINEERING 2013年第2期18卷 219-227页

作者： Teague, Aarin Christian, Jason Bedient, Philip San Antonio River Author San Antonio TX 78283 USA US EPA Off Res & Dev Gulf Breeze FL USA Univ Georgia Fac Engn Athens GA 30602 USA Rice Univ Dept Civil & Environm Engn Houston TX USA

Recent advances in hydrologic models have depended on the use of radar rainfall input in physically based, fully distributed models. Previous research conducted for case studies near Houston, Texas, have focused on the use of radar rainfall for large storm events such as tropical storms and hurricanes. A fully distributed model, Vflo, was used to model streamflow during small storm events in the Cypress Creek watershed, near Houston, Texas. Two events were simulated both with rain gauge-corrected radar data and exclusively with rain gauges. Then a third event was modeled exclusively with rain gauge data to assess model performance with only rain gauge data. The modeled streamflow was then compared to the USGS observed streamflow, using peak streamflow, time to peak, and volume streamflow, to evaluate the model performance between radar and rain gauge input. A comparison of the models for the events shows that the radar input results better match the observed streamflow for the streamflow volume and peak streamflow. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000567. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

关键词： Radar rainfall distributed hydrologic model Physically based models

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Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone

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hydrologicAL PROCESSES 2013年第23期27卷 3292-3300页

作者： Ishikawa, Hirohiko Oku, Yuichiro Kim, Sunmin Takemi, Tetsuya Yoshino, Jun Kyoto Univ Disaster Prevent Res Kyoto Japan Kyoto Univ Grad Sch Engn Kyoto Japan Gifu Univ Grad Sch Engn Gifu Japan

The damage to society caused by tropical cyclones depends largely on the storm track relative to geography. A procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks deviating from the original track of a given reference case. In this procedure, the position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before landing in a physically consistent way by applying potential vorticity inversion methodology. After shifting the typhoon position, the subsequent progress is again simulated by a mesoscale weather model. The procedure is applied to a strong typhoon that emerged in a global warming experiment using an atmospheric general circulation model. Various realizations of typhoon landfall cases are generated. Using the output of a suite of realization of different tracks, the worst case scenario is discussed in terms of the river discharge in the Tone River basin, Japan. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： global warming typhoon the worst scenario flood distributed hydrologic model potential vorticity WRF down-scaling

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Essential Terrestrial Variable data workflows for distributed water resources modeling

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ENVIRONMENTAL modelLING & SOFTWARE 2013年 50卷 85-96页

作者： Leonard, Lorne Duffy, Christopher J. Penn State Univ Dept Civil & Environm Engn University Pk PA 16802 USA

This paper discusses a prototype infrastructure, HydroTerre, that provides researchers, educators and resource managers with seamless access to geospatial/geotemporal data for supporting physics-based numerical models. The prototype defines the supporting data as Essential Terrestrial Variables (ETV's) and includes data fusion tools necessary to predict and manage surface and groundwater resources that resolve important dynamics of upland stream networks. The evaluation of ecosystem and watershed services, such as the detection and attribution of the impact of climatic change, provides one of many examples of the pressing need for high resolution, spatially explicit resource assessments in upland catchments. However, the current infrastructure for supporting models and data anywhere in the continental USA (CONUS) must overcome important problems of: efficient accessibility to high resolution geospatial datasets from multiple sources, scalability of geospatial data in support of distributed models and data-intensive computation for multi-scale, multi-state simulations. We discuss data workflows for web access to ETV data processing in support of catchment modeling, as part of a larger strategy for consuming this data within a framework that enables hydrological modelers to build and test models with fast data access at a United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrography Dataset hydrological Unit Code (HUC) level-12 scale. Given the prospect of petabytes of existing high resolution environmental data (NRC, 2012), we limit our investigation to a limited set of ETV's necessary to provide the first level of support for model implementation anywhere in the CONUS, and that resolve important features of upland watersheds (e.g. hill slopes within 1st-2nd-3rd order streams). The paper demonstrates HydroTerre tools for fast ETV data access to web users, and describes the computational resources necessary for using ETV's as the basis for implementing spatially distrib

关键词： HydroTerre Data workflow Essential Terrestrial Variables Web services distributed hydrologic model PIHM Geographic information systems

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Deforestation impacts on discharge of the Ji-Parana River - Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation impacts on discharge of the Ji-Parana River - ...

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International Association of hydrological Sciences Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology / IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Joint Assembly

作者： Bayer, Debora Missio Collischonn, Walter Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul Inst Pesquisas Hidraul BR-91501970 Porto Alegre RS Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9781907161377

hydrological impacts of land-use changes have been studied for several decades in relatively small basins using the paired catchment experimental approach. In large river basins this kind of experiment is of limited use, and the assessment of impacts can only be done by applying physically-based hydrological models. We analysed impacts of deforestation on streamflow of the river Ji-Parana (southern Amazon) using the MGB-IPH hydrological model. Three forest cover scenarios were simulated: pristine condition with predominant (similar to 100%) forest cover;current condition with about 57% deforestation;and a hypothetical 100% deforestation scenario. Results suggest that average annual discharge of the river Ji-Parana increases by about 31 mm for each 10% of the basin drainage area that is deforested. These results are consistent with worldwide experimental studies, but are not verified in observed streamflow records of the Ji-Parana River.

关键词： land use change MGB-IPH model distributed hydrologic model

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modelling runoff response to land-use change using an integrated approach in Xiangjiang River basin, China

Modelling runoff response to land-use change using an integr...

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International Association of hydrological Sciences Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology / IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Joint Assembly

作者： Xu, Hongliang Xu, Chong-Yu Zhou, Bin Singh, V. P. Univ Oslo Dept Geosci N-0316 Oslo Norway

ISBN: (纸本)9781907161377

Economic development and urbanization have affected both water quantity and quality in many regions of the world. Understanding and quantifying the hydrological response to urbanization and land-use change have become a major focus in studies of the impact of human activities on hydrology. This study employs an integrated approach that combines the land-use change allocation model (CLUE-s) and a physically-based distributed hydrological model (SWAT) for examining the impact of various land-use change scenarios in a region undergoing rapid change in land-use - the Xiangjiang River basin in China. Results indicate that various land-use policies have different levels of impact on the simulation of streamflows. Land-use change can lead to significant changes in the distributions of water resources and hydrological processes. Results of this study will be helpful for land-use planning and watershed management. The integrated modeling approach is shown to be a promising tool for land-use impact studies.

关键词： land-use change distributed hydrologic model SWAT CLUE-s Xiangjiang River basin

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