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input-output modelling with decomposed neuro-fuzzy ARX model

NEUROCOMPUTING 2008年第4-6期71卷 875-884页

作者： Golob, Marjan Tovornik, Boris Univ Maribor Inst Automat Fac Elect Engn & Comp Sci SLO-2000 Maribor Slovenia

This paper presents a new neuro-fuzzy system based model, which is useful for the modelling of nonlinear dynamic systems. The new proposed model constitutes a soft computing method, namely, reasoning with a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and tin optimisation by the neural-network learning algorithm. A structure, named the decomposed neuro-fuzzy ARX model is proposed. This structure is based on decomposition of the FIS. An evolution of a learning algorithm for the decomposed fuzzy model is suggested. A comparative study of dynamic system identification using conventional FIS models and the proposed neuro-fuzzy ARX model is presented for Box-Jenkins data set. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： input-output modelling fuzzy ARX model neuro-fuzzy system

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Macroeconomic, sectoral and financial dynamics in energy transitions: A stock-flow consistent, input-output approach

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ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 2025年 230卷

作者： Jackson, Andrew Jackson, Tim Univ Surrey Guildford England

This paper develops a stock-flow consistent, input-output (SFC-IO) model that is able to simulate a number of the risks and opportunities associated with different types of transitions to net zero. In particular, the model is able to capture transition related impacts stemming from changes in: i) green investment;ii) energy return on energy invested (EROI);and iii) financial transition risks. We use this model to simulate a number of different types of energy transitions (i.e. orderly versus disorderly, anticipated versus unanticipated) to better understand the potential links and feedback effects between these different transition features and how they might generate nonlinear dynamics along the transition pathway. Novel or semi novel aspects of the model include: i) multiple firm sectors and goods types;ii) the integration of a dynamic input-output model into the SFC model;iii) the use of an almost ideal demand system;iv) firms that produce distinct capital vintages which have defined lifespans and endogenously determined levels of labour productivity and material goods inputs;v) endogenous markups which are set to generate a target profit rate on each individual capital vintage (and cover interest payments, retained earnings and loan repayments);vi) the tracking of individual loans (which are linked to distinct capital vintages), loan repayments, and loan defaults;vii) the exit and bankruptcy of the fossil fuel sector during the transition process.

关键词： Climate change Energy transition Transition risk Stranded assets Energy return on investment Stock-flow consistent modelling input-output modelling

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Resilient or fragile? modelling economic disruptions in India's electronics sector due to the Red Sea crisis

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JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY 2025年 123卷

作者： Sarkar, Bishal Dey Gupta, Laxmi Jagtap, Sandeep Indian Inst Management Bodh Gaya Operat Management & Quantitat Tech Turi Khurd Bihar India Bennett Univ Sch Management Greater Noida 201310 India Lund Univ Fac Engn Div Engn Logist S-22363 Lund Sweden Cranfield Univ Sustainable Mfg Syst Ctr Cranfield MK43 0AL England

The Red Sea crisis and the recent attacks on commercial ships have drawn significant attention worldwide, underscoring the need to understand how such geopolitical conflicts can disrupt global supply chains and economic stability. This paper thoroughly examines the complex impacts of the crisis on India's electronics and photonics sector, recognizing the sector's crucial importance as a fundamental pillar in the country's economic structure. The study creates a mathematical model to assess how disruptions in the Electronics and Photonics Sector affect India's economy in light of the Red Sea Crisis. The model uses two specific methods: interval programming and input-output modelling. How disruption in one area of the economy ripples to another is studied using Wassily Leontief's Inoperability input-output Model (IIM). IIM now includes interval programming to handle data uncertainties. The findings disclose that, because of the Red Sea crisis, Indian Sector has experienced a huge economic loss of 605.52 million USD. The study also determines which sectors are anticipated to suffer significant losses due to the crisis, allowing decision-makers to prioritize their investment plans. Further, the research uses the inoperability value to analyse the interconnections between the sectors. Additionally, a decision-support conclusion is included in the research to analyse the sectors under various situations.

关键词： Economy loss Interoperability Interval programming input-output modelling Red Sea crisis Electronics and photonics sector

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Weld optimisation

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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF WELDING AND JOINING 2021年第3期26卷 181-195页

作者： Das, Debasish Jaypuria, Sanjib Pratihar, Dilip Kumar Roy, Gour Gopal Indian Inst Technol Kharagpur Kharagpur W Bengal India Indian Inst Technol Kharagpur Dept Mech Engn Kharagpur W Bengal India Indian Inst Technol Kharagpur Dept Met & Mat Engn Kharagpur W Bengal India

In welding, the concept of optimisation had been used, till date, to serve two specific purposes. To obtain any desired weld attributes, a set of required optimal input parameters could be determined utilising the principle of optimisation. To establish an input-output relationship of a welding process accurately, which might be essential to automate it, the tools for optimisation had been used extensively. These optimisation problems were formulated as either a single-objective or multi-objectives or many-objectives ones. Both traditional and nature-inspired optimisation tools were used for the said purposes. This paper provides an extensive review on the role of optimisation in welding. Some research areas have also been identified for future study.

关键词： Optimisation welding input-output modelling

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Energy cost reduction creates additional socioeconomic benefits The case of Eno Energy Cooperative, Finland

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ENERGY POLICY 2019年 129卷 352-359页

作者： Lehtonen, Olli Okkonen, Lasse Nat Resources Inst Finland Latokartanonkaari 9 Helsinki 00790 Finland Univ Eastern Finland Kuopio Finland Karelia Univ Appl Sci Karjalankatu 3 Joensuu 80200 Finland

The biomass-based heat entrepreneurships and heating cost reductions can generate long-term socioeconomic benefits on a local and regional economy. This analysis focuses on a small community, called Eno, located in predominantly rural region of North Karelia and demonstrate previously unknown socioeconomic impacts of energy cost reduction. We ask in this paper what type of long-term income and employment impacts heat entrepreneurship has from start-up to growth and maturity production stages. According to the socio-economic impact analyses, the total employment impacts of the Eno Energy Cooperative in 2000-2015 were approximately 160 FTE's and the total income impact in the same period was about 6.7 million euros. Results proved that besides to traditional socioeconomic impacts, the energy cost savings, and their induced impacts, can increase and even double the development benefits of bioenergy utilization. Previously known direct, indirect, and induced impacts of the investments and production are only a part of the socioeconomic impact of bioenergy production. These impacts are often analysed without understanding the profitability of bioenergy systems, and public and private benefits of reduced energy costs. This paper concludes with generic discussion on socioeconomic impacts of bioenergy, which can be utilised in local policy advocacy.

关键词： Socioeconomic impacts input-output modelling Heat entrepreneurship Eno Energy Cooperative

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Water Footprint Assessment: Evolvement of a New Research Field

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WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 2017年第10期31卷 3061-3081页

作者： Hoekstra, Arjen Y. Univ Twente Twente Water Ctr POB 217 NL-7500 AE Enschede Netherlands Natl Univ Singapore Inst Water Policy Lee Kuan Yew Sch Publ Policy 469 Bukit Timah RdOei Tiong Ham Bldg Singapore 259772 Singapore

This paper reviews the evolvement of water footprint assessment (WFA) as a new research field over the past fifteen years. The research is rooted in four basic thoughts: (1) there is a global dimension to water management because water-intensive commodities are internationally traded, so we must study virtual water trade and the effects of countries externalizing their water footprint;(2) freshwater renewal rates are limited, so we must study the development of consumption, production and trade patterns in relation to these limitations;(3) supply-chain thinking, previously uncommon in water management, can help to address sustainable water use from the perspective of companies and final consumers;and (4) a comprehensive approach requires the consideration of green in addition to blue water consumption, the traditional focus in water management, and the analysis of water pollution in the same analytical framework as well. The quick emergence of the new field and wide uptake of the water footprint concept in society has generated substantial discussion about what the concept in narrow sense and the research field in broader sense can offer and what not. The paper reflects on the main issues of debate.

关键词： Water management Environmental footprint Water scarcity Supply chain Life cycle assessment input-output modelling

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The Neglected Water Rebound Effect of Income and Employment Growth

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WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 2022年第1期36卷 379-398页

作者： Gkatsikos, Alexandros Mattas, Konstadinos Loizou, Efstratios Psaltopoulos, Dimitrios Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki Dept Agr Econ Thessaloniki Greece Univ Western Macedonia Dept Reg Dev & Cross Border Studies Kozani Greece Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki Dept Econ Thessaloniki Greece

The water footprint assessment, particularly for the agricultural sector, is often a valuable input to water policy formation globally. Efforts on reducing it focus on water-saving actions through adoption of irrigation technological improvements. However, gained water efficiency enhances agricultural output productivity and water consumption remains equivalent as before to attain higher income, causing the so-called water rebound effect. This rebound effect has been addressed in the literature through water pricing scenarios but with ambiguous results. In this work, two water trade-off multipliers are introduced to account for the impact of income increase and job creation on water consumption as a result of CAP 2014-2020 water saving actions. Build upon the knowledge gained in an EU funded project (CARERA , EU FP6), an input-output model is applied to estimate total water requirements with a special focus on several crops for a Mediterranean water-deprived region. Three policy scenarios are developed to measure the rebound effect of income and employment and determine the actual water footprint of the study area. Results indicate that one percent drop of water consumption by agriculture, diminishes the water footprint of the economy by only 0.33%. Furthermore, by incorporating indirect income and employment effects in the model, the water footprint is significantly increased.

关键词： input-output modelling Water multipliers Water footprint Ex-ante impact assessment Rebound effect

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The design of industrial symbiosis: an input-output approach

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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2016年 129卷 537-547页

作者： Yazan, Devrim Murat Romano, Vincenzo Alessio Albino, Vito Univ Twente Fac Behav Management & Social Sci Dept Ind Engn & Business Informat Syst Drienerlolaan 5 NL-7522 NB Enschede Netherlands Vispo Srl Via Turritana 78 I-07100 Sassari Italy Politecn Bari DMMM Viale Japigia 182 I-70126 Bari Italy

Industrial symbiosis (IS) has gained more attention in the production economics as the pressure on companies increases for the reduction of waste emissions and primary resources consumption. In fact, this has forced companies to provide other companies their wastes as primary resources and vice-versa. These supply circles lead to IS that can mitigate environmental impacts and costs in industrial areas (IA). The aim of this paper is to provide guidelines for the future evolution of IA operating on the basis of IS principles. Given a production network within an IA, perfect IS within the network is,defined as a theoretical optimum for IS design where no primary resources is needed from outside and no wastes are discharged outside. Adopting an enterprise input output approach, the conditions for a perfect IS are found for one-waste and multi-waste cases, and the distance between the states of the actual network and of the related perfect IS is measured. Proposed approach is empirically applied to Santa Croce sull'Arno industrial district of tannery where the recycling of chrome liquors, fleshing, and wastewater are investigated. Results show under which conditions perfect symbiosis is achievable for two waste types. Policy implications are also suggested for the design of IA when IS principles are adopted. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Industrial symbiosis input-output modelling Sustainable production networks Waste reduction Environmental sustainability

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Local, regional and national level of the socioeconomic impacts of a bio-oil production system - A case in Lieksa, Finland

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RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS 2017年 71卷 103-111页

作者： Okkonen, Lasse Lehtonen, Olli Karelia Univ Appl Sci Joensuu Finland Nat Resources Inst Finland Helsinki Finland

The aim of this paper is to assess the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts on a local, regional and national economy from forest biomass-based bio-oil production using input output (I-O) analysis. We also analysed the importance of a bio-oil factory on the development of the local economy and determined the type of impacts bio-oil production has on population and employment development and on the public Municipal economy. Our study area is located in a resource periphery far from growing regions and suffers from development problems and stagnating development trends. In terms of employment and income, bio-oil production could have a significant positive net impact on the local economy despite leakages to regional and national economies. The impacts of bio-oil production could enhance the future development prospects for the resource periphery according to positive changes in the net migration and by slowing population losses.

关键词： Socioeconomic impacts input-output modelling Bio-oil production

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Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO₂ emissions in China

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APPLIED ENERGY 2016年 184卷 995-1003页

作者： Hofmann, Jana Guan, Dabo Chalvatzis, Konstantinos Huo, Hong Univ East Anglia Sch Int Dev Norwich NR4 7TJ Norfolk England Univ East Anglia Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res Norwich NR4 7TJ Norfolk England Univ East Anglia Norwich Business Sch Norwich NR4 7TJ Norfolk England Tsinghua Univ Inst Energy Environm & Econ Beijing 100084 Peoples R China

This paper analyses the impacts of the gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs at different penetration rates on petroleum and electricity sectors and their CO2 emissions. The study utilises a top-down-type Environmental input-output (EI-O) model. Our results show that the replacement of gasoline cars with EVs causes greater impacts on total gasoline production than on total electricity generation. For example, at 5%, 20%, 50%, 70% and 100% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, the total gasoline production decreases by 1.66%, 6.65%, 16.62%, 23.27% and 33.24% in policy scenario 1, while the total electricity production only increases by 0.71%, 2.82%, 7.05%, 9.87% and 14.10%. Our study confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions. The CO2 emissions reduction in the petroleum sector is offset by the increase in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, leaving the national CO2 emissions unchanged. By decarbonising the electricity sector, i.e. using 30% less coal in electricity generation mix, the total CO2 emissions will be reduced by 28% (from 10,953 to 7870 Mt CO2) on the national level. The gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs, powered by 50% coal -based electricity, helps reduce CO2 emissions in petroleum sector and contributes zero or a very small proportion of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario 2 and 3). We argue that EVs can contribute to a reduction of petroleum dependence, air quality improvement and CO2 emission reduction only when their introduction is accompanied by aggressive electricity sector decarbonisation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Electric vehicles Vehicle replacement input-output modelling Electricity generation mix CO2 emissions China

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