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Examining Organizational Functioning Through the Lens of Complexity Theory Using system dynamics modeling

JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SERVICE RESEARCH 2012年第5期38卷 591-604页

作者： Fitch, Dale Jagolino, Noel C. Univ Missouri Sch Social Work Columbia MO 65211 USA Dept Publ Hlth Minneapolis MN USA

The methodologies associated with complexity theory might serve as an adjunct to some of our more traditional behavioral social science research methods. While the latter has a well-established history in social work, the approaches related to complexity theory are just now gaining a foothold. One such approach is system dynamics modeling. This article will describe the application of system dynamics modeling to a well-known early intervention program. The manner in which it complements traditional research approaches will be discussed, and its unique contribution to understanding the organizational aspects of complexity theory will be highlighted.

关键词： Complexity theory system dynamics modeling organizational dynamics positive and negative feedback

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Study of Reverse Logistics for Household Appliances Industry Based on system dynamics modeling

Study of Reverse Logistics for Household Appliances Industry...

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16th International Conference on Management Science and Engineering

作者： Zhao Zhong-ping Fu Zhuo Huang Fu-hua Cent S Univ Sch Traff & Transportat Engn Changsha 410075 Hunan Peoples R China Hunan Univ Commerce Sch Management Changsha 41025 Hunan Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9781424439706

This paper is focus on reverse logistics system of china Household Appliances industry, A system dynamic model has been developed to complement with prior models and is validated using data collected from a Color TV company manufacturer handling returns with volumes transacted over a period of two years. The results from the model indicate that part replacements from suppliers are more profitable than refurbished Household Appliances parts. In addition, transportation delay and supplier delay in processing returns have a significant impact on the viability of reverse logistics regardless of return volumes.

关键词： decision-making household appliances industry reverse logistics system dynamics modeling

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Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives

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AMERICAN JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY PSYCHOLOGY 2007年第3-4期39卷 239-253页

作者： Hirsch, Gary B. Levine, Ralph Miller, Robin Lin Creator Learning Environm Wayland MA 01778 USA Michigan State Univ Dept Psychol E Lansing MI 48824 USA

Community psychologists have a long history of interest in understanding social systems and how to bring about enduring positive change in these systems. However, the methods that community psychologists use to anticipate and evaluate the changes that result from system change efforts are less well developed. In the current paper, we introduce readers to system dynamics modeling, an action research approach to studying complex systems and the consequences of system change. We illustrate this approach by describing a system dynamics model of educational reform. We provide readers with an introduction to system dynamics modeling, as well as describe the strengths and limitations of the approach for application to community psychology.

关键词： system dynamics modeling systems thinking system change methods educational reform

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Assessing Bioethanol Production to Fulfill Energy Demand in Indonesia Using system dynamics modeling

Assessing Bioethanol Production to Fulfill Energy Demand in ...

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IEEE-Region-10 Conference (IEEE TENCON)

作者： Mayasari, Fitriyanti Dalimi, Rinaldy Univ Hasanuddin Univ Indonesia Dept Elect Engn Makassar Indonesia Univ Indonesia Dept Elect Engn Depok Indonesia

ISBN: (纸本)9781538654576

Bioethanol is a liquid biofuel, produced from biological organism that contains appreciable amount of sugar or any material that can be converted into sugar. Indonesia had been producing bioethanol from 2007 - 2010 from molasses. The research aims to give the projection of bioethanol supply - demand in Indonesia to fulfill the mandatory target of bioethanol utilization in 2025. Using system dynamics modeling, bioethanol production is modeled by identifying the variables and the relations. The modeling and simulation is conducted in STELLA. The research shows that E5 blending will be achieved, but it will not meet E10, therefore it is suggested to expanding the cassava cultivation land at least 12.2% per year, starting from 2019 then 5.7% from 2020. But the scenario cannot cover E20 in 2025. Thus the government should expand 2.8 million Ha of cassava land. Other scenario is choosing other feedstock with higher productivity than 21.8 Ton/Ha/year and conversion efficiency more than 0.1527 kL/Ton.

关键词： Bioethanol Production Bioethanol Suppy-Demand system dynamics modeling Bioethanol Utilization Mandate

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Qualitative system dynamics modeling to Support Community Planning in Opioid Overdose Prevention*

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RESEARCH ON SOCIAL WORK PRACTICE 2023年第3期33卷 282-295页

作者： Sabounchi, Nasim S. Lounsbury, David W. Iftikhar, Pulwasha Lutete, Priscila Trajkoska, Biljana Estrada, Weanne Myrrh El-Bassel, Nabila Rapkin, Bruce Gilbert, Louisa Hunt, Timothy Goddard-Eckrich, Dawn A. Feaster, Daniel J. Huang, Terry T-K CUNY Grad Sch Publ Hlth & Hlth Policy Ctr Syst & Community Design Dept Hlth Policy & Management 55 W 125th St7th Floor New York NY 10027 USA Albert Einstein Coll Med Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth Bronx NY 10467 USA Columbia Univ Sch Social Work Social Intervent Grp New York NY USA Univ Miami Miller Sch Med Dept Publ Hlth Sci Miami FL 33136 USA

Purpose: We aimed to help community stakeholders develop a shared understanding of the opioid crisis through qualitative system dynamics (SD) modeling to inform local strategies for prevention and treatment. Methods: As part of the HEALing Communities Study-New York State, we used secondary qualitative data from community stakeholder interviews and coalition meeting notes to develop qualitative SD models that elucidate the interdependencies and feedback structures underlying the opioid epidemic in each community. Results: The synthesized model revealed multiple balancing and reinforcing feedback loops that influenced the adoption and reach of evidence-based practices to reduce opioid overdose and fatality. Conclusion: SD modeling is a novel approach to helping community stakeholders to see the inter-connectedness of actors, factors and sectors and the need for multiple mutually reinforcing strategies to avert opioid overdose and fatality. Social workers could play a key role in linking actions across sectors in such a complex system.

关键词： system dynamics modeling community action planning opioid overdose

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Using Participatory system dynamics modeling to Examine the Local HIV Test and Treatment Care Continuum in Order to Reduce Community Viral Load

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AMERICAN JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY PSYCHOLOGY 2017年第3-4期60卷 584-598页

作者： Weeks, Margaret R. Li, Jianghong Lounsbury, David Green, Helena Danielle Abbott, Maryann Berman, Marcie Rohena, Lucy Gonzalez, Rosely Lang, Shawn Mosher, Heather Inst Community Res Hartford CT 06106 USA Montefiore Med Ctr Albert Einstein Coll Med Bronx NY 10467 USA AIDS Connecticut Hartford CT USA

Achieving community-level goals to eliminate the HIV epidemic requires coordinated efforts through community consortia with a common purpose to examine and critique their own HIV testing and treatment (T&T) care system and build effective tools to guide their efforts to improve it. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling offers conceptual, methodological, and analytical tools to engage diverse stakeholders in systems conceptualization and visual mapping of dynamics that undermine community-level health outcomes and identify those that can be leveraged for systems improvement. We recruited and engaged a 25-member multi-stakeholder Task Force, whose members provide or utilize HIV-related services, to participate in SD modeling to examine and address problems of their local HIV T&T service system. Findings from the iterative model building sessions indicated Task Force members' increasingly complex understanding of the local HIV care system and demonstrated their improved capacity to visualize and critique multiple models of the HIV T&T service system and identify areas of potential leverage. Findings also showed members' enhanced communication and consensus in seeking deeper systems understanding and options for solutions. We discuss implications of using these visual SD models for subsequent simulation modeling of the T&T system and for other community applications to improve system effectiveness.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Human immunodeficiency virus Community viral load Participatory Test and treatment Group model building

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Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling

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HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH 2020年第1期18卷 85-85页

作者： Morii, Yasuhiro Furuta, Seiichi Ishikawa, Tomoki Fujiwara, Kensuke Yamashina, Hiroko Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Hokkaido Univ Fac Hlth Sci Sapporo Hokkaido Japan Hokkaido Univ Sci Dept Pharm Sapporo Hokkaido Japan Inst Hlth Econ & Policy Tokyo Japan Otaru Univ Grad Sch Commerce Otaru Hokkaido Japan

Background Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people's health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population's needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. Methods The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015-2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. Results The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. Conclusion Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015-2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversu

关键词： Health human resourcing Pharmacists Forecasting system dynamics modeling

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Simulation Techniques on system dynamics modeling of Production-inventory Control Model

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JOURNAL OF INFORMATION & OPTIMIZATION SCIENCES 2008年第1期29卷 17-28页

作者： Roy, Supriyo Mukhopadhyay, S. Sengupta, P. P. Bengal Engn & Sci Univ Sibpur India Univ Burdwan Burdwan W Bengal India Natl Inst Technol Durgapur India

The purpose of this research is to simulate the system dynamics modeling approach in areas related to production-inventory management. Present inventory system is based on order rate which is proportional to the discrepancy between the desired inventory and the actual inventory and time between orders are negligible. Asymptotic growth/decline are the perplexing behavior of this type of production-inventory control model. Considering the complexities of proposed inventory control model, solution approach comprises Euler's integration algorithm to simulate under the platform of system dynamics modeling. Coding is developed in C++ platform and results are demonstrated in Graphics mode by considering object oriented concepts. Numerical example with graphical output is presented to show the efficacy of Euler's integration algorithm in simulation for solving real life complex problems under system dynamics environment.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Production-inventory control model Euler's integration algorithm continuous time simulation optimization

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modeling Consumer Behavior and Forecasting the Automobile Market: A system dynamics Approach for Sustainable Mobility

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ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 2025年 1-26页

作者： Shbool, Mohammad A. Alhmsi, Khalid Amr, Mohammad Hajeer, Rama Hamed, Areen Al-Bazi, Ammar Rawabdeh, Mohammad Univ Jordan Sch Engn Ind Engn Dept Amman 11942 Jordan Amer Univ Bahrain Coll Engn & Comp Ind Engn Riffa Bahrain Aston Univ Aston Business Sch Birmingham B4 7ER England

The shift in the automotive landscape has led to inconsistent consumer behavior, challenging forecasting the market's future. This work aims to develop a model utilizing system dynamics to predict how the market will behave and how the attractiveness of electrical, conventional, and hydrogen vehicles will fluctuate. Variables, such as fuel price per km, the average electric vehicle range, and the average hydrogen tank capacity, are considered in the model. Data were collected using various techniques such as experts' opinions, surveys, governmental entities, and web scraping. This study employs a system dynamics (SD) model, which facilitates scenario analysis to explore complex, dynamic interactions and provides insights beyond what traditional methods like regression or time series can offer. The results revealed an anticipated rise in the annual percentage of electric vehicle purchases relative to conventional vehicles. (The CV share dropped from 56.4% to 31.5%, whereas the EV share increased from 43.4% to 68.5% in ten years from 2022.) This growth was brought on by higher gasoline costs, technology developments that enable faster charging, longer electric automobile ranges, and lower electric vehicle prices. However, there would be no significant increase in hydrogen fuel cell automobiles due to the lack of infrastructure and government support.

关键词： Automotive market prediction system dynamics modeling Consumer behavior Sustainable transportation Electric vehicles (EVs)

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system dynamics simulation model of price transmission in collaboration market of electricity, carbon, and green certificate driven by multiple policies

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ENERGY 2025年 323卷

作者： Zhang, Shuo Xu, Zhenhao Li, Yingzi Zhang, Jiayuan Hu, Jiang North China Elect Power Univ Sch Econ & Management Beijing 102206 Peoples R China Univ Sci & Technol Beijing Sch Econ & Management Beijing 100083 Peoples R China North China Elect Power Univ Beijing Key Lab New Energy & Low Carbon Dev Beijing 102206 Peoples R China Guizhou Power Grid Co Ltd Power Grid Planning Res Ctr Guiyang Peoples R China

The new-type power system (NTPS) serves as the foundational support for constructing new-type energy system (NTES) and achieving dual carbon goals of China, within market-oriented operation driven by multiple policies. Based on the collaboration market of electricity, carbon and green certificate (CMECG), an orderly price transmission mechanism is the key issue for NPTS. In this paper, a system dynamics simulation model of price transmission in CMECG is proposed, driven by key multi-policy factors including green electricity consumption quota (GECQ), pre-allocation quota distribution ratios (PQDR) in the carbon market and offsetting ratios of Chinese certified emission reduction (ORCCER). Firstly, a collaborative operation framework of CMECG is constructed. Secondly, the causal loop diagrams and the flowchart for price transmission of CMECG are established. Finally, adopting the research path of China between 2025 and 2035, the collaborative operation processes of CMECG are simulated. The price transmission relationship of carbon and green certificates to electricity are separately fitted and sensitivity analyses are conducted. Relevant recommendations have been put forward to promote CMECG. The results show that the transmission of electricity price influenced by carbon price and green certificate follows linear and exponential relationships respectively, and that GECQ and PQDR have the most significant influence on carbon price, whereas the ORCCER has the most significant influence on green certificate price. The price transmission model of CMECG in NTPS based on system dynamics has obvious theoretical and practical significance for mechanism study of CMECG under multi-policies.

关键词： New-type power system Multi-market collaboration Price transmission system dynamics modeling

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