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A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

Journal of Arid Land 2013年第1期5卷 118-131页

作者： ShanShan DAI LanHai LI HongGang XU XiangLiang PAN XueMei LI Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism Management Macao University of Science and Technology Macao 999078 China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China School of Tourism Management Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the te

关键词： water resources management sustainable development system dynamics modeling water stress arid river basin

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A system dynamics approach to management of water resources in Qatar

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SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 2024年 46卷 733-753页

作者： Naeem, Khawar Aloui, Sarra Zghibi, Adel Mazzoni, Annamaria Triki, Chefi Elomri, Adel Hamad Bin Khalifa Univ Qatar Fdn Coll Sci & Engn Doha 34110 Qatar Univ Tunis El Manar Fac Sci Tunis Dept Geol LR01ES06 Lab Geol Resources & Environm Tunis 2092 Tunisia Qatar Fdn Qatar Environm & Energy Res Inst Doha 34110 Qatar Univ Kent Kent Business Sch Canterbury CT2 7UL England

Rapid global population growth and extensive urbanization threaten water sustainability, hindering sustainable development. This issue is particularly acute in arid regions such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where the scarce natural water resources are overexploited. Effective water resource management (WRM) is pivotal in overcoming this challenge. This holistic study presents an innovative approach to address water sustainability at a national scale by developing a WRM decision support system (DSS) leveraging system dynamics modeling (SDM). Employing a unique scenario design framework developed in this study, the DSS simulates Qatar's water resource system behavior for 2021 to 2070 according to nine clustered policy scenarios presenting different degrees of sustainability designed accounting for changes in physical, environmental, and socioeconomic patterns. Our results reveal that the "business-as-usual" (BAU) WRM policy can balance water supply and demand for only 32 years. According to the best policy scenario, the sustainability of the water supply could be ensured for up to 50 years by increasing the water supply by 10 % and reducing consumption by 10 %. Additionally, to aid policymakers in fostering water resource sustainability, groundwater conservation strategies are proposed using the unique scenario design framework by limiting the yield to the safe abstraction level and emphasizing the significance of preserving non-renewable groundwater resources as a "backstop" resource for the country. While marking the first holistic research study in Qatar by utilizing the SDM approach to tackle national-scale WRM challenges, the established WRM DSS model is equally applicable to other GCC countries and similar arid regions.

关键词： Water resource management system dynamics modeling Policy scenario design framework Groundwater conservation policies Stakeholder engagement Gulf cooperation council

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Use of system dynamics for proper conservation and recycling of aggregates for sustainable road construction

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RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2014年 86卷 61-73页

作者： Mallick, Rajib B. Radzicki, Michael J. Zaumanis, Martins Frank, Robert Worcester Polytech Inst Civil & Environm Engn Dept Worcester MA 01609 USA Worcester Polytech Inst Dept Social Sci & Policy Studies Worcester MA 01609 USA RAP Technol Linwood NJ 08221 USA

A significant amount of mineral aggregates are used in constructing, rehabilitating and maintaining roads. As local (nearby) quarries get exhausted, aggregates need to be hauled from sources that are at ever-greater distances. Hence, over time the cost of trucking as well as the amount of emissions generated by trucking increases with a decrease of local natural aggregate stocks. The objectives of this study are to construct and utilize a system dynamics model of the depletion of a stock of natural aggregates due to pavement construction and maintenance, and determine the effect of using local and nonlocal aggregates, recycling and project cancellation (slowing growth) on the paving of roads. Long-term simulations are carried out with available aggregate stock, trucking distance and cost data. The quality of roads and a sustainability score, based on engineering, economic and environmental factors (emissions) are evaluated for different scenarios. An optimal combination of the use of local and nonlocal recycled aggregates, recycling and project cancellation is recommended. The proposed system dynamics model could be utilized by agencies to plan for the proper utilization of aggregate resources for road development and maintenance/rehabilitation projects. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Asphalt Recycling Mineral aggregates Road construction system dynamics modeling

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A system dynamics analysis of the alternative roofing market and its potential impacts on urban environmental problems: A case study in Orlando, Florida

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RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2020年 153卷 104556-000页

作者： Kelly, Carolina Sen, Burak Tatari, Omer Univ Cent Florida Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn Orlando FL 32816 USA

Recent advances in sustainable construction and development methods have allowed urban developers to significantly reduce urban environmental problems caused by buildings such as increased energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, urban runoff, and the urban heat island effect. Newer forms of green infrastructure, including alternative roofing (green roofs, solar BIPV systems, etc.), have emerged as potential solutions to these urban environmental problems. However, a number of practical and socioeconomic factors are currently limiting their market penetration to a marginal share. This study employs a system dynamics modeling approach to analyze these hindrances in Orlando's alternative roofing market, as well as the potential of societal, economic, and developmental investments in different alternative roofing markets to address these issues. Conventional roofs have been found to remain predominant in Orlando's roofing market under all policy scenarios, with solar roof system being the most mature out of the three alternative roofing markets considered, and consequently has the most potential for future market penetration. It has been found that the studied alternative roof systems (ARSs) reach only a marginal market share in the year 2040, and for this reason, could not result in significant improvements in the studied impact categories at the city level. However, the studied ARSs yield important reductions in all of the impact categories when analyzed at the building level. The results of this study indicate that the alternative roofing market has significant growth potential, but further research, development, and improvement will be essential to achieve more effective, long-term benefits in Orlando.

关键词： Green roofs Solar PV roofs system dynamics modeling Urban sustainability Sustainable buildings

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Environmental and economic impact assessment of construction and demolition waste disposal using system dynamics

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RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2014年 82卷 41-49页

作者： Marzouk, Mohamed Azab, Shimaa Cairo Univ Fac Engn Dept Struct Engn Cairo Egypt

Construction and demolition wastes (CDW) have increasingly serious problems in environmental, social, and economic realms. There is no coherent framework for utilization of these wastes which are disposed both legally and illegally. This harms the environment, contributes to the increase of energy consumption, and depletes finite landfills resources. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of two alternatives for the management of CDW, recycling and disposing. The evaluation is carried out through developing a dynamic model with aid STELLA software by conducting the following steps: (1) quantifying the total cost incurred to mitigate the impacts of CDW landfills and uncollected waste on the environment and human health;(2) quantifying the total avoided emissions and saved energy by recycling waste;(3) estimating total external cost saved by recycling waste and;(4) providing a decision support tool that helps in re-thinking about waste disposal. The proposed evaluation methodology allows activating the stringent regulations that restrict waste disposal and developing incentives to encourage constructors to recycle their wastes. The research findings show that recycling CDW leads to significant reductions in emissions, energy use, global warming potential (GWP), and conserves landfills space when compared to disposal of wastes in landfills. Furthermore, the cost of mitigating the impact of disposal is extremely high. Therefore, it is necessary to recycle construction and demolition wastes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Construction and demolition wastes (CDW) Environmental and economic impact assessment Pollutant emissions Waste recycling Global warming potential (GWP) system dynamics modeling

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A behavioral theory of insider-threat risks: A system dynamics approach

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ACM TRANSACTIONS ON modeling AND COMPUTER SIMULATION 2008年第2期18卷 7-1-7-27页

作者： Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio J. Rich, Eliot Conrad, Stephen Andersen, David F. Stewart, Thomas R. Argonne Natl Lab Argonne IL 60439 USA SUNY Albany Ctr Policy Res Albany NY 12222 USA Sandia Natl Labs Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

The authors describe a behavioral theory of the dynamics of insider-threat risks. Drawing on data related to information technology security violations and on a case study created to explain the dynamics observed in that data, the authors constructed a system dynamics model of a theory of the development of insider-threat risks and conducted numerical simulations to explore the parameter and response spaces of the model. By examining several scenarios in which attention to events, increased judging capabilities, better information, and training activities are simulated, the authors theorize about why information technology security effectiveness changes over time. The simulation results argue against the common presumption that increased security comes at the cost of reduced production.

关键词： insider threat risk system dynamics modeling behavioral theory signal detection theory judgment and decision making policy analysis security modeling

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An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale

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JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2015年 155卷 11-23页

作者： Liu, Hui Benoit, Gaboury Liu, Tao Liu, Yong Guo, Huaicheng Chinese Univ Hong Kong Dept Geog & Resource Management Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China Peking Univ Coll Environm Sci & Engn Beijing 100871 Peoples R China Yale Univ Sch Forestry & Environm Studies New Haven CT 06511 USA Univ Hong Kong Dept Geog Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China

A reliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and to comprehensively represent a watershed's dynamic features is important. In this study, after identifying lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and Investment Promotion) and three balancing loops (Pollution, Resource Consumption, and Pollution Control) were constituted. Based on this work, we constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant load model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which is the sixth largest and among the most severely polluted freshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative management scenarios on spatial adjustment of industries and population (Si), wastewater treatment capacity construction (S2), and structural adjustment of agriculture (S3), were simulated to assess the effectiveness of certain policies in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective scenario, and the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 10.9, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waihai are 9.6, 1.2, and 0.08 mg/L, with sustained development in the watershed. Thus, the model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Watershed management Socioeconomic development Lake water quality system dynamics modeling

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Using system dynamics to understand long-term impact of new mobility services and sustainable mobility policies: an analysis pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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TRANSPORTATION LETTERS-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH 2024年第7期16卷 751-763页

作者： Fontoura, Wlisses B. Radzicki, Michael J. Ribeiro, Glaydston M. Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro Transportat Engn Program Rio De Janeiro Brazil Worcester Polytech Inst Social Sci & Policy Studies Dept Worcester MA USA

Sustainable transport policies are fundamental to adapt transport capacity to existing and future travel demand. In this context, this study aims to develop a system dynamics (SD), to verify the effects of these policies, focusing on congestion and air pollution. Combined with the SD, the discrete choice utility approach was used to predict the modal share in different policy spaces. In addition, it is carried out a case study in Rio de Janeiro in two realities: pre- and post-pandemic. The results show how mitigation policies can reduce transport externalities (congestion and pollution). The encouragement of high-capacity public transport and car ownership control are the best measures, obtaining high simulation scores. The post-pandemic scenario shows that reducing travel demand is the key to achieving better results. All scores obtained in this scenario are better than in pre-pandemic scenario. Finally, results point out that ride-hailing should be used in a conscious way.

关键词： Transportation planning urban transport systems modal share discrete choice utility system dynamics modeling COVID-19

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Developing a system dynamics model for prediction of phosphorus in facultative stabilization ponds

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AMB EXPRESS 2019年第1期9卷 1页

作者： Shahsavani, Ebrahim Ebrahimi, Ali Asghar Ehrampoush, Mohammad Hassan Maleknia, Houshang Eslami, Hadi Samaei, Mohammad Reza Jahrom Univ Med Sci Res Ctr Social Determinates Hlth Jahrom Iran Shahid Sadoughi Univ Med Sci Environm Sci & Technol Res Ctr Dept Environm Hlth Engn Yazd Iran Shiraz Univ Med Sci Sch Hlth Dept Environm Hlth Engn Shiraz Iran Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci Occupat Environm Res Ctr Sch Hlth Dept Environm Hlth Engn Rafsanjan Iran

system dynamics is considered as a computer-aided approach to policy analysis and design. It includes the response and reaction of a system to external shocks. In the present research, following the sampling and testing phases, a system dynamics model was developed for modeling of phosphorus in facultative stabilization ponds. First, the scheme of soluble reactive phosphorous stock, its specifications and parameters were determined and created in the VenSim PLE 7.1 software. Then, mathematical relations were determined for each process. Finally, the model was calibrated and verified based on the data from the Yazd facultative ponds, Iran. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most important factors affecting phosphorus concentration in the ponds are the phosphorus settling rate, losses caused by algal respiration and excretion, while the losses caused by herbivorous zooplanktons, hydrolysis rate of inorganic carbon, and ratio of phosphorus to chlorophyll-a had the least importance. Results showed that, algal growth rate and phosphorus settling rate were important factors in phosphorus removal. Hence, with appropriate retention time in the pond, it can be managed more properly. The ratio of phosphorus to algae had less importance in the model. The ratio of carbon to phosphorus and rate of respiration of carnivorous zooplanktons did not affect the phosphorus concentration. It is recommended that this model can be used for pond management and overall assessment of facultative ponds.

关键词： Phosphorus modeling system dynamics modeling Wastewater stabilization ponds Facultative ponds

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Food system dynamics structuring nutrition equity in racialized urban neighborhoods

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AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CLINICAL NUTRITION 2022年第4期115卷 1027-1038页

作者： Freedman, Darcy A. Clark, Jill K. Lounsbury, David W. Boswell, Lena Burns, Marilyn Jackson, Michelle B. Mikelbank, Kristen Donley, Gwendolyn Worley-Bell, La Queta Mitchell, Jodi Ciesielski, Timothy H. Embaye, Milen Lee, Eun Kyung Roche, Abigail Gill, India Yamoah, Owusua Case Western Reserve Univ Dept Populat & Quantitat Hlth Sci Mary Ann Swetland Ctr Environm Hlth Cleveland OH 44106 USA Ohio State Univ Dept Geog John Glenn Coll Publ Affairs Columbus OH 43210 USA Albert Einstein Coll Med Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth Bronx NY 10467 USA Nguzo Saba Gardens Cleveland OH USA Greater Cleveland Food Bank Cleveland OH USA Clevelanders Publ Transit Cleveland OH USA Perfectly Imperfect Produce Cleveland OH USA

Background The food system is a social determinant of health and a leverage point for reducing diet-related racial inequities. Yet, food system interventions have not resulted in sustained improvement in dietary outcomes for underrepresented minorities living in neighborhoods with a history of disinvestment. Research is needed to illuminate the dynamics structuring food systems in racialized neighborhoods to inform intervention development. Objectives To conduct participatory research examining the complexity and inequity of food systems in historically redlined neighborhoods to identify feedback mechanisms to leverage in efforts to transform system outcomes for racial equity. Methods We conducted a mixed-methods study in Cleveland, Ohio, USA from 2018 to 2021 using participatory system dynamic modeling with 30 academic and community partners, in-depth qualitative interviews with 22 key stakeholders, and public convenings with 250 local food policy council affiliates. Data were synthesized into causal loop diagrams depicting feedback mechanisms reinforcing or balancing neighborhood-level food system dynamics. Results We identified 10 feedback mechanisms structuring nutrition equity, which was identified as a meta-goal for food systems in racialized neighborhoods. Feedback mechanisms were organized in 3 domains: 1) meeting basic food needs with dignity (i.e., side hustle, government benefits, emergency food assistance, stigma, and stereotypes);2) local food supply and demand dynamics (i.e., healthy food retail, job security, food culture, and norms);and 3) community empowerment and food sovereignty (i.e., community power, urban agriculture, risk of gentrification). Five exogenous factors moderate feedback dynamics: neighborhood crisis, neighborhood investments, household costs, government benefit funding, and voter participation. Conclusions We identified nutrition equity as an overarching goal for local food systems, which reflects a state of having freedom, agency,

关键词： food security health equity participatory research racial disparities food systems system dynamics modeling

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