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Effective policy mix for plastic waste mitigation in India using system dynamics

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 2021年 168卷 105455-105455页

作者： Dhanshyam, M. Srivastava, Samir K. IIM Anusandhan Indian Inst Management Lucknow 226013 Uttar Pradesh India Indian Inst Management Operat Management Room 134Chintan Fac BlockIIM Rd Lucknow Uttar Pradesh India Cent Pollut Control Board CPCB Delhi India

Mitigation of plastic waste is a serious concern for policymakers. The present waste management system in India is grossly ineffective, with a significant proportion of mismanaged plastic waste. This paper identifies the effective policy mix to mitigate the plastic waste problem in India using system dynamics modelling. It simulates four major policy interventions - charging disposal fee, provision of recycling subsidies, provision of kerbside recycling facilities and a new intervention - imposing a plastic ban - and studies their relative impacts on the accumulated plastic waste stock under different implementation scenarios and combinations. The findings suggest that while composite combinations of policies offer more effective policy mix than individual policy interventions, a suitable choice of policy mix along with its timing and extent is crucial. Phased implementation of policies has a better impact than the constant rollout of equivalent magnitude. A phased composite mix of the provision of kerbside recycling facilities with either charging disposal fee or provision of recycling subsidies is the most effective policy mix, followed by the phased mix of charging disposal fee and provision of recycling subsidy. The plastic ban has a detrimental impact in the absence of proper enforcement mechanisms and substitutes. The paper presents a reliable roadmap to policymakers for the rollout of the effective policy mix. It contributes to theory-building by providing few novel insights about different policy mix and suggests new research directions.

关键词： Waste management Plastic waste system dynamics modeling plastic ban Policy mix

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Strategies for Mitigating Urban Residential Carbon Emissions: A system dynamics Analysis of Kunming, China

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BUILDINGS 2024年第4期14卷 982-982页

作者： Xu, Jian Qian, Yujia He, Bingyue Xiang, Huixuan Ling, Ran Xu, Genyu Yunnan Univ Urban Construct & Digital City Teaching Expt Ctr Sch Architecture & Planning Kunming 650550 Peoples R China

To effectively combat environmental challenges, it is necessary to evaluate urban residential building carbon emissions and implement energy-efficient, emission-reducing strategies. The lack of a specialized carbon emission monitoring system complicates merging macro- and micro-level analyses to forecast urban residential emissions accurately. This study employs a system dynamics (SD) model to examine the influence of social, economic, energy, and environmental factors on carbon emissions in urban residences in Kunming, China. The SD model forecasts household carbon emissions from 2022 to 2030 and establishes three scenarios: a low-carbon scenario (LCS), a medium low-carbon scenario (MLCS), and a high low-carbon scenario (HLCS) to assess emission reduction potentials. It predicts emissions will climb to 4.108 million tons by 2030, significantly surpassing the 2014 baseline, with economic growth, urbanization, residential energy consumption, and housing investment as key drivers. To curb emissions, the study suggests enhancing low-carbon awareness, altering energy sources, promoting research and development investment, and expanding green areas. The scenarios indicate a 5.1% to 16.1% emission reduction by 2030 compared to the baseline. The study recommends an 8.3% to 11.4% reduction in MLCS as a practical short-term target for managing urban residential emissions, offering a valuable SD approach for optimizing carbon strategies and aiding low-carbon development.

关键词： carbon emissions urban residential buildings system dynamics modeling Kunming low-carbon scenarios

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A system dynamics framework for mechanistic analysis of flexible pavement systems under moisture variations

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TRANSPORTATION GEOTECHNICS 2021年 30卷

作者： Mousavi, Sayedmasoud Ghayoomi, Majid V. Dave, Eshan Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn Durham NH 03824 USA

The infiltration of water in pavement layers due to heavy precipitation, snow melting, surface water flow, or ground water fluctuation can lead to a substantial change in pavement performance under traffic loading. The extent of this change depends on several complex and interdependent factors such as climatic and mechanical stressors, hydro-geological material properties, and traffic loads. Due to a very large number of variables and their interdependencies, a system dynamics approach can holistically capture all significant variables and provide a tool to study and visualize governing factors and their effects on pavement response under variable initial and boundary conditions. The objective of this study is to develop and program a system dynamics model (SDM) to study the performance of pavement systems under extreme moisture variations in real time. The application of the model is illustrated by evaluating surface deflection of a conventional flexible pavement system with hypothetical material and precipitation conditions. A parametric study was also conducted to illustrate the capability of the proposed SDM to simulate moisture movement in subsurface and estimate pavement performance at variable initial conditions in real time. Results demonstrated that the pavements weakened through water infiltration may suffer a considerably high surface deflection. This indicated that the proposed SDM can be potentially used for load restriction decision making which results in provision of safe traffic passage as well as preservation of pavements' structure during extreme climatic events.

关键词： system dynamics modeling Flexible Pavement Flooded Pavement Assessment Seasonal Load Restriction Soil Moisture Effects Surface Deflection

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A ONE-STOP LOGISTIC SERVICES FRAMEWORK SUPPORTING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN COLLABORATION

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Journal of systems Science and systems Engineering 2016年第2期25卷 229-253页

作者： Amy J.C. Trappey Charles V. Trappey Sandy W.C. Chang W.T. Lee Tun Nien Hsu Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management National Tsing Hua University Hsinchu Taiwan China Department of Management Science National Chiao Tung University Taiwan China Technology Center for Service Industries Industrial Technology Research Institute Taiwan China

A global enterprise must continuously improve the efficiency of logistic operations between supply chain collaborators. Integrating logistic services, resources, and necessary information flows in the supply chain to ensure efficiency and efficacy is critically important to these companies. Global logistic service companies face challenges from their clients to provide logistic services that are cost effective, accurate, and seamlessly integrate material, information and cash flows. In this research, an improved framework for one-stop logistic services is systematically designed, analyzed, and evaluated. The one-stop logistic service framework, defmed in four models, is developed to provide enterprises with integrated and comprehensive services within the global supply chain context. The levels of service importance are assessed using a four categories questionnaire. This research provides a case study of the implementation of one-stop logistic services in the distribution industry and demonstrates the framework operating under different demand conditions. Finally, system dynamics causal evaluation is used to evaluate the advantages of the logistic service framework.

关键词： One-stop logistic services logistic management supply chain management system dynamics modeling

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The Impact of SOA Implementation on IT-Business Alignment: A system dynamics Approach

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ACM TRANSACTIONS ON MANAGEMENT INFORMATION systemS 2013年第1期4卷 3-3页

作者： Choi, Jae Nazareth, Derek L. Jain, Hemant K. Pittsburg State Univ Dept Accounting & Comp Informat Syst ACIS Kelce Coll Business Pittsburg KS 66762 USA Univ Wisconsin Milwaukee Lubar Sch Business Milwaukee WI 53211 USA

With firms facing intense rivalry, globalization, and time-to-market pressures, the need for organizational agility assumes greater importance. One of the primary vehicles for achieving organizational agility is the use of agile information systems [IS] and the close alignment of information technologies [IT] with business. However, IS is often viewed as an impediment to organization agility. Recently, service-oriented architecture [SOA] has emerged as a prominent IS agility-enhancing technology. The fundamental question of how SOA can enhance organization agility and foster closer alignment between IT and business has not been adequately addressed. The dynamic interaction among external business environmental factors, organizational agility, and IS architecture makes the process of keeping IT and business aligned more complex. This study uses a design science approach to build a system dynamics model to examine the effect of employing alternative SOA implementation strategies in various organizational and external business environments on the IT business alignment and IS cost. The results provide insights into the shaping of IT-business alignment. Additionally, the system dynamics model serves as a tool for supporting managerial decisions related to SOA implementation.

关键词： Service-oriented architecture IT-business alignment information systems agility system dynamics modeling

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Bridging Complexity: Business Incubators in the Preliminary Lens of system dynamics Simulation

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Procedia CIRP 2024年 130卷 1216-1220页

作者： Diogo Costa Almeida Paulo Afonso Ana Maria Soares L.P. Ferreira School of Economics and Management University of Minho rua da Universidade 4710-057 Braga Portugal School of Engineering University of Minho av. da Universidade 4800-058 Guimarães Portugal ISEP Polytechnic of Porto rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida 4249-015 Porto Portugal

system dynamics simulation has been a field of study with applications in various areas and whose main objective is to study complex and dynamic systems and, more specifically, to determine the impact that certain configurations of controllable inputs have on the various output measures of these systems. Business incubators are organizations with the aim of promoting entrepreneurship and the success of the start-ups they host. The environment in which these organizations operate is complex, involving a series of agents that relate to each other, with the impact of many of these relationships still to be discovered. By aligning the literature on system dynamics with the literature on business incubators, it was possible to see that business incubators can fit into a system dynamics vision, approach and methodology, thus answering in the affirmative to the main objective of this study. The use of system dynamics modeling is therefore one of the next steps for future research. Despite this possibility, the application of this type of methodology still has some limitations due to the lack of quantitative data that would allow relationships to be modeled between the various agents that are part of the incubation process.

关键词： system dynamics simulation Business incubators system dynamics modeling Incubation process

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Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data

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JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 2021年第3期25卷 614-626页

作者： Herrington, Gaya KPMG LLP 550 South Hope St Los Angeles CA 90071 USA

In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical-data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity's goal in the twenty-first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines in these variables, but only one-where declines are caused by pollution-depicts a collapse. The scenario that aligned most closely in earlier comparisons was not amongst the two closest aligning scenarios in this research. The scenario with the smallest declines aligned least with empirical data;however, absolute differences were often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggesting that the window to align with this last scenario is closing.

关键词： collapse industrial ecology limits to growth system dynamics modeling systems thinking World3

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The water-energy nexus at water supply and its implications on the integrated water and energy management

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018年 636卷 1257-1267页

作者： Khalkhali, Masoumeh Westphal, Kirk Mo, Weiwei Univ New Hampshire Dept Civil & Environm Engn Durham NH 03824 USA CDM Smith Boston MA USA

Water and energy are highly interdependent in the modern world, and hence, it is important to understand their constantly changing and nonlinear interconnections to inform the integrated management of water and energy. In this study, a hydrologic model, a water systems model, and an energy model were developed and integrated into a system dynamics modeling framework. This framework was then applied to a water supply system in the northeast US to capture its water-energy interactions under a set of future population, climate, and system operation scenarios. A hydrologic model was first used to simulate the system's hydrologic inflows and outflows under temperature and precipitation changes on a weekly-basis. A water systems model that combines the hydrologic model and management rules (e.g., water release and transfer) was then developed to dynamically simulate the system's water storage and water head. Outputs from the water systems model were used in the energy model to estimate hydropower generation. It was found that critical water-energy synergies and tradeoffs exist, and there is a possibility for integrated water and energy management to achieve better outcomes. This analysis also shows the importance of a holistic understanding of the systems as a whole, which would allow utility managers to make proactive long-term management decisions. The modeling framework is generalizable to other water supply systems with hydropower generation capacities to inform the integrated management of water and energy resources. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Water-energy nexus system dynamics modeling Water supply Hydrologic modeling Hydropower generation Climate change

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Air transportation in a carbon constrained world: Long-term dynamics of policies and strategies for mitigating the carbon footprint of commercial aviation

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE 2011年第10期45卷 1077-1091页

作者： Sgouridis, Sgouri Bonnefoy, Philippe A. Hansman, R. John Masdar Inst Sci & Technol Abu Dhabi U Arab Emirates MIT Dept Aeronaut & Astronaut Int Ctr Air Transportat Cambridge MA 02139 USA

With increasing demand for air transportation worldwide and decreasing marginal fuel efficiency improvements, the contribution of aviation to climate change relative to other sectors is projected to increase in the future. As a result, growing public and political pressures are likely to further target air transportation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The key challenges faced by policy makers and air transportation industry stakeholders is to reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions while sustaining mobility for passengers and time-sensitive cargo as well as meeting future demand for air transportation in developing and emerging countries. This paper examines five generic policies for reducing the emissions of commercial aviation;(1) technological efficiency improvements, (2) operational efficiency improvements, (3) use of alternative fuels, (4) demand shift and (5) carbon pricing (i.e. market-based incentives). In order to evaluate the impacts of these policies on total emissions, air transport mobility, airfares and airline profitability, a system dynamics modeling approach was used. The Global Aviation Industry dynamics (GAID) model captures the systemic interactions and the delayed feedbacks in the air transportation system and allows scenarios testing through simulations. For this analysis, a set of 34 scenarios with various levels of aggressiveness along the five generic policies were simulated and tested. It was found that no single policy can maintain emissions levels steady while increasing projected demand for air transportation. Simulation results suggest that a combination of the proposed policies does produce results that are close to a "weak" sustainability definition of increasing supply to meet new demand needs while maintaining constant or increasing slightly emissions levels. A combination of policies that includes aggressive levels of technological and operations efficiency improvements, use of biofuels along with moderate levels of carbo

关键词： Aviation Environment Carbon constraints system dynamics modeling Policy analysis

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Predictive simulation of the water-energy-food nexus for the City of Cape Town

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SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024年 934卷 173289页

作者： Egieya, J. M. Parker, Y. Hofmann, V. S. Daher, B. Gorgens, J. Goosen, N. J. Stellenbosch Univ African Res Univ Alliance ARUA Ctr Excellence Energy CoE Private Bag X1 ZA-7602 Matieland South Africa Texas A&M Energy Inst College Stn TX 77845 USA Stellenbosch Univ Fac Engn Dept Chem Engn Stellenbosch South Africa Texas A&M Univ Dept Biol & Agr Engn College Stn TX 77845 USA

The City of Cape Town (CoCT), South Africa faced a critical situation between 2015 and 2018 in which the municipal water supply was almost completely exhausted. This situation, commonly referred to as Day Zero in South Africa emanated from a decline in rainfall, resulting in one of the most severe droughts in history. The crisis was also aggravated by rapid population growth and urbanization. CoCT was on the verge of becoming the first city in the past decade to experience a complete cessation of water supply for urban and agricultural purposes. In addition to the effects of low rainfall and population surge, urban energy consumption and increased food demand impacted directly the available water resources. To evaluate the interlinkages between water utilization, water production, energy supply and demand, and food production and demand, this study employed a system dynamics modeling (SDM) approach. The model was developed as a stock and flow diagram utilizing Stella Architect and encompassed five interconnected nodes: water, energy, food, land, and population. The findings revealed that by the end of the 20 -year modeling period, the volume of accessible and stored water in all the major dams will be approximately 459 million cubic meters, with residential use accounting for about 85 % of urban water use and agriculture accounting for approximately30.37 % of total water demand. The model illustrates the impacts of precipitation rate, runoff, and evaporation on variables such as land -use change and population dynamics. It is anticipated that the outcomes of this study will serve as valuable inputs for decisionmaking processes, not only within the CoCT as it aims to mitigate or prevent the recurrence of Day Zero, but also for other cities facing similar challenges.

关键词： WEF nexus system dynamics modeling Climate change Water planning Simulation

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