目的分析血压正常、高血压前期、高血压各状态间转移规律,建立血压多状态间的转移预测模型。方法以中国健康与营养调查数据库(China Health andNutrition Survey,CHNS)中1991-2009年数据为训练集,2011年数据为模型验证集,运用R软件中的&...
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目的分析血压正常、高血压前期、高血压各状态间转移规律,建立血压多状态间的转移预测模型。方法以中国健康与营养调查数据库(China Health andNutrition Survey,CHNS)中1991-2009年数据为训练集,2011年数据为模型验证集,运用R软件中的"msm"包对血压多状态间的转移建立多状态Markov模型。结果本研究基线共纳入5265人,共有17640人次观测数据,基线人群男:女的比例为1:1.17,平均年龄为37.54±13.80岁。10年内,血压正常状态平均有30.7%的可能发展为高血压前期,3 1.1%发展为高血压;高血压前期状态平均有23.4%恢复到血压正常,41.5%发展为高血压;高血压前期的平均逗留时间为6.929年(95%CI:6.885-7.181,P<0.001)。多状态markov模型拟合情况显示10年内预测能力较好,运用该研究模型对2011年各血压状态人数的预测人数与观测人数差异无统计学意义(x2=1.883,P=0.390),预测效果很好。结论多状态Markov模型可以考虑到血压多状态间的转移情况,可以很好对队列人群若干年后血压正常、高血压前期、高血压人数进行预测。
Aims To evaluate the prevalence of elevated blood pressure (BP) in school children in relation to their parental *** A total of 2,025 sets of parents and their children (981 boys and 1,044 girls) were enrolled in this...
Aims To evaluate the prevalence of elevated blood pressure (BP) in school children in relation to their parental *** A total of 2,025 sets of parents and their children (981 boys and 1,044 girls) were enrolled in this cross-sectional study conducted in five schools in Shanghai,in *** the children included were bom full-term with normal birth weight and aged 7-13 *** of students were ***'s birth weight and parental weight and height were obtained by ***-HTN and HTN was defined as SBP and/or DBP≥90th but ＜95th and ≥95th ageand gender-specific percentile,*** regression model was used.
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