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arXiv 2021年

作者： Carrington, André M. Manuel, Douglas G. Fieguth, Paul W. Ramsay, Tim Osmani, Venet Wernly, Bernhard Bennett, Carol Hawken, Steven McInnes, Matthew Magwood, Olivia Sheikh, Yusuf Holzinger, Andreas Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Institute of Clinical Evaluative Sciences Ottawa Canada Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Department of Family Medicine School of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Ottawa Institute of Clinical Evaluative Sciences Bruyère Research Institute Canada Department of Systems Design Engineering Vision and Image Processing Lab Faculty of Engineering University of Waterloo Canada e-health group Fondazione Bruno Kessler Research Institute department of Psychology and Cognitive Science University of Trento Italy Department of Cardiology Paracelsus Medical University of Salzburg Salzburg Austria Ottawa Hospital Research Institute University of Ottawa Canada Ottawa Hospital Research Institute University of Ottawa Canada Ottawa Hospital Research Institute University of Ottawa Canada Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Institute of Clinical Evaluative Sciences Ottawa Canada Bruyere Research Institute University of Ottawa Canada Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Department of Biology University of Ottawa Canada Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute University of Alberta Canada Human-Centered AI Lab Medical University Graz Austria

Optimal performance is critical for decision-making tasks from medicine to autonomous driving, however common performance measures may be too general or too specific. For binary classifiers, diagnostic tests or prognosis at a timepoint, measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, or the area under the precision recall curve, are too general because they include unrealistic decision thresholds. On the other hand, measures such as accuracy, sensitivity or the F1 score are measures at a single threshold that reflect an individual single probability or predicted risk, rather than a range of individuals or risk. We propose a method in between, deep ROC analysis, that examines groups of probabilities or predicted risks for more insightful analysis. We translate esoteric measures into familiar terms: AUC and the normalized concordant partial AUC are balanced average accuracy (a new finding);the normalized partial AUC is average sensitivity;and the normalized horizontal partial AUC is average specificity. Along with post-test measures, we provide a method that can improve model selection in some cases and provide interpretation and assurance for patients in each risk group. We demonstrate deep ROC analysis in two case studies and provide a toolkit in Python. © 2021, CC BY-NC-SA.

关键词： Decision making

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The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

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Nature Communications 2022年第1期13卷 1-14页

作者： Reiner, Robert C. Welgan, Catherine A. Troeger, Christopher E. Baumann, Mathew M. Weiss, Daniel J. Deshpande, Aniruddha Blacker, Brigette F. Miller-Petrie, Molly K. Earl, Lucas Bhatt, Samir Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Aghaali, Mohammad Aji, Budi Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Saqib Alizade, Hesam Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Saeed Amugsi, Dickson A. Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Catalina Liliana Ansari, Fereshteh Anvari, Davood Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Atout, Maha Moh’d Wahbi Ausloos, Marcel Ausloos, Floriane Ayanore, Martin Amogre Aynalem, Yared Asmare Azene, Zelalem Nigussie Badawi, Alaa Baig, Atif Amin Banach, Maciej Bedi, Neeraj Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhandari, Dinesh Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bijani, Ali Birhanu, Tesega Tesega Mengistu Bitew, Zebenay Workneh Boloor, Archith Brady, Oliver J. Butt, Zahid A. Car, Josip Carvalho, Felix Casey, Daniel C. Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chu, Dinh-Toi Coelho, Camila H. Cook, Aubrey J. Damiani, Giovanni Daoud, Farah Gela, Jiregna Darega Darwish, Amira Hamed Daryani, Ahmad Das, Jai K. Davis Weaver, Nicole Deribe, Kebede Desalew, Assefa Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Dianatinasab, Mostafa Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Dorostkar, Fariba Dubljanin, Eleonora Duko, Bereket Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura Effiong, Andem El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enany, Shymaa Fattahi, Nazir Feigin, Valery L. Fernandes, Eduarda Ferrara, Pietro Fischer, Florian Foigt, Nataliya A. Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin Foroutan, Masoud Frostad, Joseph Jon Fukumoto, Takeshi Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji Gebrekrstos, Hailemikael Gebrekidan G. K. Gebremeskel, Leake Gebreslassie, Assefa Ayalew Gething, Peter W. Gezae, Kebede Embaye Ghadiri, Keyghobad Ghashghaee, Ahmad Golechha, Mahaveer Gubar Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Malaria Atlas Project University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Laboratory Medicine Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Public Health Debre Berhan University Debre Berhan Ethiopia Department of Clinical Sciences University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Population Health Sciences King’s College London London United Kingdom Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa Department of Global Health Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Qom University of Medical Sciences Qom Iran Faculty of Medicine and Public Health Jenderal Soedirman University Purwokerto Indonesia Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research Rochester MN United States John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO United States Clinical Epidemiology Center Department of Veterans Affairs St Louis MO United States Institute of Health Research University of Health and Allied Sciences Ho Ghana Department of Information Systems College of Economics and Political Science Sultan Qaboos University Muscat Oman Infectious and Tropical Disease Research Center Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences Bandar Abbas Iran Department of Health Policy and Management Kuwait University Safat Kuwait International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding National University of Malaysia Bandar Tun Razak Malaysia Department of Epidemiology Arak University of Medical Sciences Arak Iran Medical Research Center

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival. © 2022, The Author(s).

关键词： Biogeography Epidemiology Infectious diseases Malaria

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