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A robust risk analysis method for water resources allocation under uncertainty

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 2013年第3期27卷 713-723页

作者： Chen, C. Huang, G.H. Li, Y.P. Zhou, Y. MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization Sino-Canada Energy and Environmental Research Academy North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization Resources and Environmental Research Academy North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China Advanced Manufacture and Processing System Program Faculty of Engineering University of Regina Regina SK S4S 0A2 Canada

A robust risk analysis method (RRAM) is developed for water resource decision making under uncertainty. This method incorporates interval-parameter programming and robust optimization within a stochastic programming framework. In the RRAM formulation, penalties are exercised with the recourse against any infeasibility, and robustness measures are introduced to examine the variability of the second stage costs which are above the expected levels. In this study, a number of weighting levels are considered which correspond to the robustness levels of risk control. Generally, a plan with a higher robust level would better resist from system risk. Thus, decision with a lower robust level can correspond to a higher risk of system failure. There is a tradeoff between system cost and system reliability. The RRAM is applied to a case of water resource management. The modeling results can help generate desired decision alternatives that will be particularly useful for risk-aversive decision makers in handling high-variability conditions. The results provide opportunities to managers to make decisions based on their own preferences on system stability and economy, and ensure that the management policies and plans be made with reasonable consideration of both system cost and risk. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

关键词： Decision making

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MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SUBMARINE PROPULSION systemS

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NAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL 1991年第3期103卷 141-157页

作者： SWALLOM, DW SADOVNIK, I GIBBS, JS GUROL, H NGUYEN, LV VANDENBERGH, HH Daniel W. Swallomis the director of military power systems at Avco Research Laboratory Inc. a subsidiary of Textron Inc. in Everett Mass. Dr. Swallom received his B.S. M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in mechanical engineering from the University of Iowa Iowa City Iowa in 1969 1970 and 1972 respectively. He has authored numerous papers in the areas of power propulsion and plasma physics and currently is a member of the Aerospace Power Systems Technical Committee of the AIAA. Dr. Swallom has directed various programs for the development of advanced power generation systems lightweight power conditioning systems and advanced propulsion systems for marine applications. His previous experience includes work with Odin International Corporation Maxwell Laboratories Inc. Argonne National Laboratory and the Air Force Aero Propulsion Laboratory. Currently Dr. Swallom is directing the technical efforts to apply magnetohydrodynamic principles to a variety of propulsion and power applications for various marine vehicles and power system requirements respectively. Isaac Sadovnikis a principal research engineer in the Energy Technology Office at Avco Research Laboratory Inc. a subsidiary of Textron Inc. He received his B.S. in engineering (1974) B.S. in physics (1975) M.S. in aeronautics and astronautics (1976) and Ph.D. in physics of fluids (1981) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Sadovnik has been involved in research work funded by DARPA concerning the use of magnetohydrodynamics for underwater propulsion. He has built theoretical models that predict the hydrodynamic behavior of seawater flow through magnetohydrodynamic ducts and their interaction with the rest of the vehicle (thrust and drag produced). In addition Dr. Sadovnik has been involved in research investigations geared toward the NASP program concerning the use of magnetohydrodynamic combustion-driven accelerator channels. Prior to joining Avco Dr. Sadovnik was a research assistant at MIT where he conducted experimental and

Magnetohydrodynamic propulsion systems for submarines offer several significant advantages over conventional propeller propulsion systems. These advantages include the potential for greater stealth characteristics, increased maneuverability, enhanced survivability, elimination of cavitation limits, greater payload capability, and the addition of a significant emergency propulsion system. These advantages can be obtained with a magnetohydrodynamic propulsion system that is neutrally bouyant and can operate with the existing submarine propulsion system power plant. A thorough investigation of magnetohydrodynamic propulsion systems for submarine applications has been completed. During the investigation, a number of geometric configurations were examined. Each of these configurations and mounting concepts was optimized for maximum performance for a generic attack class submarine. The optimization considered each thruster individually by determining the optimum operating characteristics for each one and accepting only those thrusters that result in a neutrally buoyant propulsion system. The results of this detailed optimization study show that the segmented, annular thruster is the concept with the highest performance levels and greatest efficiency and offers the greatest potential for a practical magnetohydrodynamic propulsion system for attack class submarines. The optimization study results were used to develop a specific point design for a segmented, annular magnetohydrodynamic thruster for an attack class submarine. The design point case has shown that this thruster may be able to provide the necessary thrust to propel an attack class submarine at the required velocity with the potential for a substantial acoustic signature reduction within the constraints of the existing submarine power plant and the maintenance of neutral buoyancy. This innovative magnetohydrodynamic propulsion system offers an approach for submarine propulsion that can be an important contributio

关键词： Ship Propulsion

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