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Partitioning Uncertainty from Climate Change Inputs on Streamflow Projections in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines

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SSRN 2025年

作者： Bañares, Ernie Nograles Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat Panda, Manas Ranjan Engineering Graduate Program School of Engineering University of San Carlos Cebu City6000 Philippines College of Engineering and Architecture Sorsogon State University Sorsogon City4700 Philippines Department of Civil Engineering School of Engineering University of San Carlos Cebu City6000 Philippines Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Yonsei University Seoul Korea Republic of

Increasing threats to global water resources from climate change emphasize the importance of comprehending its impacts on hydrology for effective water management. This article quantifies climate input uncertainty in streamflow projections for the Libmanan-Pulantuna Watershed (LPW) in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines. Using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, we simulated streamflow based on future climate projections (FCPs) from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three bias correction techniques (Linear Scaling, Quantile Mapping, and Detrended Quantile Mapping) were applied. Results showed significant differences between the CMIP datasets, with raw CMIP6 better capturing historical climate patterns. Bias correction methods reduced projection biases in precipitation and air temperatures. Projections revealed increasing low flows and decreasing high flows, especially under high-emission scenarios, worsening water shortages during critical periods. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) showed that climate models were a major source of uncertainty in hydrological projections. Combined FCPs and GCMs contributed to 50%-75% of total uncertainty across flow percentiles and future periods (near-future, mid-future, far-future). These findings underscore the importance of careful model selection and effective bias correction for reliable hydrological projections, crucial for water management strategies in areas like the Bicol River Basin, where water resources are essential for communities and ecosystems. © 2025, The Authors. All rights reserved.

关键词： Rivers

Study on accumulated deflection caused by inelastic earthquake response in large-span moment frames made of H-shaped steel

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Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering 2018年第748期83卷 819-826页

作者： Iwasawa, Ryo Yamashita, Tetsuo Architecture Program in Graduate School Kogakuin University Japan School of Architecture Kogakuin University Japan

Large-span steel moment frames are used as the main structure in many gymnasiums. Several studies pointed out that significant deflection in such moment frames was caused by inelastic seismic response for horizontal earthquake ground motion. This paper explains how horizontal excitation causes large accumulated deflection, and theoretically formulates the relations between vertical deflection and inelastic deformation. The moment frames made of H-shaped steel is considered herein, where shear yield of panel zones occur in advance to forming flexural yield hinges. Since gymnasiums are used as shelters in earthquake disaster, we need a method to evaluate the structural damage quantitatively, by inspecting and measuring the deformed gymnasium. By measuring the deflection after earthquake, we might be able to estimate the plastic deformation. In this paper, the possibility is discussed using FE dynamic response analysis. The mechanism how horizontal deformation causes accumulated deflection is summarized as follows. In elastic behavior, the moment distribution in the beam for horizontal load is antisymmetric. After forming two yield hinges at two ends of the beam, the moment distribution does not change and is also antisymmetric. In the both cases, the deflection does not increase. However, when only one yield hinge is formed at the leeward side, the deflection increases with the horizontal load due to the change of moment distribution until two hinges are formed. In this paper, bi-linear constitutive relation between the shear strain and moment acting on the panel zone is assumed and theoretical solution on the behavior is derived. The theoretical solution was verified by pushover FE analysis and good agreement was observed. By applying the derived theoretical formulas, ductility factor on the both panels can be estimated from the deflection. Dynamic response analysis was also performed to verify the estimation. This could be a useful method to estimate structural dama

关键词： Strain hardening

FORMFINDING AND BUCKLING ANALYSIS OF THREE-WAY KAGOME TIMBER LATTICED SHELLS USING GENERAL-PURPOSE FE SOFTWARE

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Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering 2023年第809期88卷 1145-1155页

作者： Shiratori, Kan Yamashita, Tetsuo Architecture Program in Graduate School Kogakuin University Japan School of Architecture Kogakuin University Japan

In this paper, a simple and practical method is proposed which enables formfinding analysis of a timber three-way latticed kagome shells and following buckling analysis, using general-purpose FE software without using specialized software for formfinding. In addition, the elastic buckling properties of the kagome shells formed by formfinding are investigated. In-plane shear stiffness of three-way lattices is so high that fixing the intersections does not allow the lattice planes to deform into a shell geometry. Therefore, the formfinding is carried out with virtual slide mechanism at the intersections enables slide of the members along the shell-surface without additional axial stress. © 2023 Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.

关键词： Buckling

Study on seismic response of large-span cantilevered roofs considering vibration characteristics of main structures

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Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering 2019年第762期84卷 1073-1080页

作者： Arai, Yudai Yamashita, Testuo Architects and Engineers Architecture Program in Graduate School Kogakuin University Japan School of Architecture Kogakuin University Japan

This study demonstrates a method for seismic response evaluation of large-span cantilevered roofs excited by horizontal seismic input. Firstly we identified the vibration characteristics of an actual cantilevered roof by performing microtremor measurement. By analyzing the data, we found that the cantilevered roof had two major vertical vibration modes, the vibration of cantilever itself and the vibration exited by the sway deformation of the main building. When the main structure and cantilevered roof resonate, the response of cantilever increases. In this paper, the method for specifying that response characteristics of cantilevered roofs is discussed. © 2019 Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.

关键词： Seismic response

Modeling supports the implementation of urban greening as a response to the challenges of sustainable spatial planning

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Journal of Environmental Management 2025年 386卷 125648页

作者： Kim, Eun Sub Hyun, Jung Hee Kim, Na Yeon Heo, Su Jeong Kim, Da Seul Lee, Dong Kun Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong Tat Chee Ave Hong Kong Kowloon Tong China Systemic Risk and Resilience Research Group Advancing Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Austria Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering Seoul National University Seoul08826 Korea Republic of Integrated Major in Smart City Global Convergence Program Seoul National University Seoul08826 Korea Republic of Forest Disaster & Environment Department National Institute of Forest Science Seoul Korea Republic of Interdisciplinary Program in Landscape Architecture Seoul National University Seoul08826 Korea Republic of Specialized Graduate School of Intelligent Eco-Science 4 Dept. of Landscape Architecture Seoul National University Seoul08826 Korea Republic of

Urban greening is critical for sustainable urban development, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation. However, the effectiveness of urban greening varies depending on the specific goals (e.g., enhancing biodiversity, reducing urban heat, or both) and their spatial implementation. To address the spatial variability in the effectiveness of greening, we propose a spatial decision support model based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). This model aims to optimize urban greening locations to maximize biomass density, mitigate urban heat stress, and improve landscape connectivity. Applied to Suwon City, South Korea, the model's effectiveness was evaluated against a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario across four scenarios: connectivity-based, biomass density-based, heat stress-based, and an integrated-based scenario. The integrated approach, balancing trade-offs between ecological benefits and implementation costs, outperformed the BAU scenario by 8.84 %. Despite highlighting a weaker correlation with heat stress mitigation, this outcome indicates significant improvements in biomass density and landscape connectivity. Our findings underscore the necessity of an integrated planning approach to urban greening, as it can contribute toward attaining urban development goals. Additionally, by proposing an app-based model for policymakers, our outputs should enable the reconciliation of multiple environmental objectives in urban landscapes. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

关键词： Biotic

Elastic buckling behavior of spherical triangular grid shells composed of H-shaped steel on rectangular plan

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Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering 2019年第759期84卷 659-667页

作者： Kageyama, Kai Yamashita, Tetsuo Kanebako Structural Eng Architecture Program in Graduate School Kogakuin University Japan School of Architecture Kogakuin University Japan

Latticed shells made of H-shaped steel have been constructed all over the world. This study investigates elastic buckling of spherical latticed shells made of H-shaped steel. Out-of-plane shell-like buckling and in-plane member buckling dominantly occur in the elastic buckling of rigidly jointed latticed shells. An H-shaped section has strong and weak axes. Since bending stiffness on the strong axis is several times of that on the weak axis, in-plane member buckling is more likely to occur than the buckling of the shells made of pipes. In the present study the latticed shells for study were on the square plan of 20m × 20m. The shells were relatively flat where the rise-span ratios of the two central arcs were between 0.075 and 0.125. In the linear-buckling (eigenvalue) analysis, in-plane member buckling appears in the 1st buckling mode in all the FE models. The depth, area and second moment of inertia on the strong axis were uniformly set to 20cm, 25cm2 and 2000cm4, respectively. On the other hand, the second moment of inertia on the weak axis was parametrically changed so that the higher order linear buckling load where shell-like buckling firstly appeared was 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 times of the 1st linear member buckling load. In addition, two boundary conditions, pin and roller were assumed since roller is often used in actually constructed shells. The higher order linear buckling loads agreed well with the classical shell-like buckling loads calculated using the continuum analogy. To estimate member buckling load itself, the buckling length is required. The buckling length calculated using the linear buckling analysis, is 0.7 and 0.5 times of the member length for the roller and pin supported shells, respectively. In the pin-supported shells, uniform compression is realized but in the roller-supported shells, compression and tension mix especially on the peripheral where the member buckling occurs. The tensioned members connected to the compressed member interfere the

关键词： Buckling

Equivalent flexural rigidity on composite beam with ⇘reduced beam section⇔ on lower flange

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AIJ Journal of Technology and Design 2021年第65期27卷 242-246页

作者： Kabuki, Taiga Yamashita, Tetsuo Architecture Program Graduate School Kogakuin Univ. Japan School of Architecture Kogakuin Univ. Japan

The Reduced Beam Section (RBS) is used as an effective method to improve deformation capacity on steel moment frames. However, study on flexural rigidity on composite beams with RBS has not been performed. This study proposes a useful method to calculate the equivalent flexural rigidity of composite beams with RBS on lower flange. The formulas were derived based on the energy method. FEM analysis was used to verify the theory. In addition, an eigenvalue analysis on a building model using the equivalent elastic beams with RBS was performed as an example. © 2021 Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.

关键词： Flanges

Study on strength and out-of-plane buckling of steel hexagonally latticed plates subjected to cyclic shear deformation

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Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering 2018年第753期83卷 1647-1654页

作者： Yamashita, Tetsuo Oyobe, Hiroyuki Miyazawa, Ryosuke School of Architecture Kogakuin University Japan Completed Master's Program in Graduate School Kogakuin University Japan

This paper finds and discusses the features of buckling and inelastic response on steel hexagonally latticed plates for cyclic shear deformation. Cyclic tests of four steel latticed plates with various hexagonal shapes were performed. The elastic rigidity, yield strength and strain concentration at hinges specified in the tests, can be evaluated theoretically. The various buckling behavior is explained by introducing the generalized slenderness calculated using FE linear buckling analysis. The shear strain at the onset of out-of-plane buckling is approximated by a similar function of generalized slenderness, which was originally proposed for steel panel dampers. © 2018 Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.

关键词： Shear deformation

ANALYSIS OF ROCKING COLUMN BEHAVIOR CONSIDERING STRESS DISTRIBUTION OF COLUMN USING FIBER ELEMENTS

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Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering 2022年第802期87卷 1201-1212页

作者： Hu, Rong Muramoto, Makoto Graduate School of Science and Technology Doctoral Program of Architecture Kyoto Institute of Technology Japan Faculty of Design and Architecture Kyoto Institute of Technology Japan

In this paper, a numerical model considering the embedment reaction of column foot by the beam-column finite element method was proposed for evaluating the restoring force characteristics of the rocking column in traditional timber structures. Wood compression tests in contact with stones were conducted to investigate the characteristics of the embedment reaction and initial deformation generated at the end of the wood, and these characteristics were considered in the column foot numerical model. The validity and applicability of the numerical model were verified by analyzing several static loading tests of the rocking column. © 2022 Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.

关键词： Finite element method