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2005 IEEE Russia Power Tech, PowerTech

作者： Wu, Zhiyong Ilic, Marija IEEE Engineering and Public Policy Department Carnegie Mellon University Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University

ISBN: (纸本)9781424418749

This paper concerns the problem of capacity expansion and investment as the electric power industry undergoes major restructuring worldwide. In particular, the objectives of investment in fully regulated industry are compared with the capacity expansion in a spot only market. It is concluded that the incentives in spot only markets depend on the rules for bidding functions into the market: If only short-run marginal cost bidding curves are allowed, and no margin on forecast demand is added, basically no new investment will take place. On the other hand, if it is allowed to bid average costs, instead of short-run marginal costs, this would provide sufficiently strong incentive signals to ensure necessary installed capacity. Given that today's measurements of market power in the spot market classify any bids higher than the short-run marginal cost as market power, we suggest that it is essential to introduce other means of providing incentives to install capacity in a timely manner. This can be done by designing longer-term physical and/or financial mechanisms for valuing future investments. In this paper we propose a Stratum Electricity Market (SEM) structure which consists of several sequentially clearing submarkets, ranging from a day-ahead-market (DAM), through month-, season-, year-, five year- and even ten year-forward submarkets. The performance of this newly proposed SEM is illustrated using simulations on a simple power system in which four different types of generation technologies supply system load.

关键词： Investments

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Panel Session - Learning Modules for Security, Privacy and Information Assurance In Undergraduate engineering Education

Panel Session - Learning Modules for Security, Privacy and I...

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Frontiers in Education (FIE) Conference

作者： Daniel Manson Sigurd Meldal Carol Sledge Stephen M. Maurer John C. Mitchell Erich Spengler Janos Sztipanovits Javier Torner Cal Poly Pomona NSF STC TRUST San José State University USA Software Engineering Institute Carnegie Mellon University CERT USA UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy USA Stanford Computer Security Laboratory NSF STC TRUST University of Stanford USA Center for Systems Security and Information Assurance The Institute for Software Integrated Systems NSF STC TRUST Vanderbilt University USA CSU San Bernardino USA

computer trustworthiness continues to increase in importance as a pressing scientific, economic, and social problem. In today's environment, there is heightened awareness of the threat of well-funded professional cyber hackers and the potential for nation-state sponsored cyber warfare. An accelerating trend of the last decade has been the growing integration role of computing and communication in critical infrastructure systems that now have complex interdependencies rooted in information technologies. These overlapping and interacting trends force us to recognize that trustworthiness of our computer systems is not an IT issue any more; it has a direct and immediate impact on our critical infrastructure. Security is often a collective enterprise, with complicated interdependencies and composition issues among a variety of participants. This poses a challenge for traditional engineering education models and curricula. The panel will discuss experiences and strategies to establish curricular foundation elements providing CSET graduates with an understanding of the interaction between cyber security, critical infrastructure systems and public policy

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Distributed model predictive control for the mitigation of cascading failures

Distributed model predictive control for the mitigation of c...

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44th IEEE Conference on Decision Control/European Control Conference (CCD-ECC)

作者： Talukdar, Sarosh Jia, Dong Hines, Paul Krogh, Bruce H. IEEE United States Carnegie Mellon U. Electrical and Computer Engineering Dept. United States Dept. of Engineering and Public Policy United States Carnegie Mellon U. Dept. of Engineering and Public Policy United States

ISBN: (纸本)0780395670

Most large blackouts are caused by cascading failures-sequences of equipment outages, one set of outages precipitating another. We study the application of distributed, autonomous agents for shortening such sequences. Each agent controls a single variable-the consumption of a load or the output of a generator. Each agent uses model predictive control and cooperates with its neighbors in making its decisions. Experiments using the IEEE 118 bus test case illustrate the effectiveness of this method.

关键词： Predictive control systems

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Capacity expansion and investment as a function of electricity market structure: Part I - Generation

Capacity expansion and investment as a function of electrici...

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Power Tech Conference

作者： Zhiyong Wu Marija Ilic Engineering and Public Policy Department Carnegie Mellon University USA Electrical engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University USA

This paper concerns the problem of capacity expansion and investment as the electric power industry undergoes major restructuring worldwide. In particular, the objectives of investment in fully regulated industry are compared with the capacity expansion in a spot only market. It is concluded that the incentives in spot only markets depend on the rules for bidding functions into the market: If only short-run marginal cost bidding curves are allowed, and no margin on forecast demand is added, basically no new investment will take place. On the other hand, if it is allowed to bid average costs, instead of short-run marginal costs, this would provide sufficiently strong incentive signals to ensure necessary installed capacity. Given that today's measurements of market power in the spot market classify any bids higher than the short-run marginal cost as market power, we suggest that it is essential to introduce other means of providing incentives to install capacity in a timely manner. This can be done by designing longer-term physical and/or financial mechanisms for valuing future investments. In this paper we propose a stratum electricity market (SEM) structure which consists of several sequentially clearing sub-markets, ranging from a day-ahead-market (DAM), through month-, season-, year-, five year- and even ten year-forward sub- markets. The performance of this newly proposed SEM is illustrated using simulations on a simple power system in which four different types of generation technologies supply system load.

关键词： Investments Electricity supply industry Power generation Costs Power system simulation public policy Power system economics Capacity planning Pricing Decision making

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Distributed Model Predictive Control for the Mitigation of Cascading Failures

Distributed Model Predictive Control for the Mitigation of C...

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IEEE Conference on Decision and Control

作者： S. Talukdar Dong Jia P. Hines B.H. Krogh Electrical and Computer Engineering Department and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University USA Electrical and Computer Engineering Department Carnegie Mellon University USA Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University USA

Most large blackouts are caused by cascading failures—sequences of equipment outages, one set of outages precipitating another. We study the application of distributed, autonomous agents for shortening such sequences. Each agent controls a single variable—the consumption of a load or the output of a generator. Each agent uses model predictive control and cooperates with its neighbors in making its decisions. Experiments using the IEEE 118 bus test case illustrate the effectiveness of this method.

关键词： Predictive models Predictive control Power system faults Power system protection Optimal control Constraint optimization Power system modeling Stability Large-scale systems public policy

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Preventing future blackouts by means of enhanced electric power systems control: From complexity to order

Preventing future blackouts by means of enhanced electric po...

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作者： Ilić, Marija D. Allen, Eric H. Chapman, Jeffrey W. King, Charles A. Lang, Jeffrey H. Litvinov, Eugene IEEE United States Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 United States Albany NY 12203 United States Endimensions San Jose CA 95129 United States Cambridge MA 02139 United States ISO New England Holyoke MA 01040 United States Engineering Public Policy Department Carnegie-Mellon University Pittsburgh PA United States Newly Formed Engineering Systems Division MIT United States Albany United States EnDimensions LLC San Jose CA United States Market Services Albany State of New York United States Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science United States ISO New England Heading R and D and Technology Strategy in the Organization United Kingdom

This paper concerns the critical role enhanced control will play in the operating of future electric power systems reliably and efficiently. The nonstandard control problems are due to a large variety of controllers, presently acting in a multirate mode at various levels of the system. Today's monitoring and control logic is largely effective during normal conditions. This paper concerns its possible enhancements which might enable the system to operate reliably over broader ranges of loading and equipment status. In particular, it is suggested that major benefits could come from providing computer tools to assist human operators with their decision making when the system is under stress. A multilayered approach is introduced to support: 1) on-line adjustment of available resources;2) monitoring the interconnection based on qualitative indices (QIs) essential for deciding the severity of the operating mode;and 3) using the QIs to adjust structure of control as the system evolves from one mode to the next. An equivalenced model of the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) interconnection is used to illustrate the potential of enhanced control in scenarios that resemble the blackout of August 2003. Also, the potential for efficient use of the resources during normal conditions is illustrated using this multilayered monitoring and control architecture. © 2005 IEEE.

关键词： Electric power systems

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KINGPINS OR MULES: AN ANALYSIS OF DRUG OFFENDERS INCARCERATED IN FEDERAL AND STATE PRISONS

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Criminology & public policy 2006年第3期3卷

作者： ERIC L. SEVIGNY JONATHAN P. CAULKINS Eric L. Sevigny is a Ph.D. student in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. Mr. Sevigny's research interests lie in the area of drug policy with an emphasis on enforcement sanctioning international control and treatment/harm reduction. His previous experience includes substance abuse counseling and substance abuse treatment needs research of special populations including prisoners the homeless and adolescents. Mr. Sevigny received a B.A. in Psychology from Middlebury College. Jonathan P. Caulkins Ph.D. is Professor of Operations Research and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz School of Public Policy. Dr. Caulkins specializes in mathematical modeling and systems analysis of social policy problems with a particular focus on issues pertaining to drugs crime violence and prevention. Dr. Caulkins has also published on airline operations sulfur dioxide pollution trading markets Internet-based advertising flexible manufacturing systems and personnel performance evaluation among other topics. At RAND he has been a consultant visiting scientist codirector of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center (1994–1996) and founding director of RAND's Pittsburgh office (1999–2001). Dr. Caulkins received a B.S. and M.S. in Systems Science from Washington University and an S.M. in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and Ph.D. in Operations Research both from M.I.T.

Research Summary: Drug policy reformers and defenders contest the extent to which low-level drug offenders are being sent to prison and for how long. Using data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 (BJS, 2000), we assess the seriousness of incarcerated drug offenders along dimensions of dangerousness, culpability, and harm—specifically, functional role and drug group participation, type and amount of drugs, firearms involvement, and criminal conviction and arrest history. We find that only about 1.6% of federal and 5.7% of state inmates can be described as “unambiguously low-level.” Alternatively, not many are “kingpins.” Rather, most fall into a middle spectrum representing different degrees of seriousness that depend on what factors are emphasized. policy Implications: Our findings dampen hopes of dramatically reducing prison populations by getting out of prison those who are unambiguously low-level drug offenders. They simply do not represent the majority of incarcerated drug offenders. In particular, most played some role in distribution, so eliminating prison terms for users (decriminalization) would not have affected many now in prison. Indeed, if decriminalization increased demand, it could plausibly increase prison populations by increasing the number of suppliers still subject to imprisonment. On the other hand, “drug courier exceptions” to sentencing laws that apply to minor role offenders possessing large quantities could have a greater prison reduction impact.

关键词： Incarceration, Drug policy, Inmate Surveys, Low-Level Drug Offenders, Culpability

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Transmission reliability and security under open access

Transmission reliability and security under open access

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IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： M. Ilic Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA

In this paper the author suggests that many of the challenges presented are direct result of the institutional dichotomy within the once vertically integrated industry. Namely, while the generation portion of this industry has made major progress toward becoming for profit, value-based industry, both the delivery (transmission) and the end user (distribution) remainders are left without any clear institutional support to adjust and provide their value to the end users in the changing industry. Moreover, since the efficient and reliable operation of the electric power grid is very complex, the engineers have relied heavily over the past 20-30 years on on-line system monitoring (including state estimation), and computer methods for decision-making and system automation. These tools are difficult to develop and use for supporting efficient generation, delivery and consumption without bringing the system closer to the limits of what is possible. The lack of real economic incentives to push the system operations to its limits for efficiency reasons combined with the complexities and risks of operating close to the system stability margins has resulted in the predictable situation the industry is currently facing. Also, the she suggested that in order to move forward and provide some more natural ways of valuing generation, transmission, distribution and customers' willingness to respond to the changing system constraints, several issues must be solved. In this presentation we introduce some possible institutional and technological approaches to solving the system reliability problems in the changing industry.

关键词： Security Power system reliability Power systems Reliability engineering Power engineering and energy computerized monitoring State estimation Grid computing Power engineering computing Decision making

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Aligning simulation models of smallpox outbreaks

Aligning simulation models of smallpox outbreaks

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2nd Symposium on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2004

作者： Chen, Li-Chiou Kaminsky, Boris Tummino, Tiffany Carley, Kathleen M. Casman, Elizabeth Fridsma, Douglas Yahja, Alex Institute for Software Research International School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University PittsburghPA15213 United States Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University PittsburghPA15213 United States Center for Biomedical Informatics School of Medicine University of Pittsburgh PittsburghPA15213 United States

ISBN: (纸本)9783540221258

We aligned two fundamentally different models of smallpox transmission after a bioterrorist attack: A location-explicit multi-agent model (Bio- War) and the conventional epidemiological box model, called a SIR model for Susceptible-Infected-Recovered. The purpose of this alignment is part of a greater validation process for BioWar. From this study we were able to contribute to the overall validation of the complex agent based model, showing that, at the minimum, the epidemiological curves produced by the two models were approximately equivalent, both in overall and the time course of infection and mortality. Subtle differences on the model results revealed the impact of heterogeneous mixing in the spread of smallpox. Based on this foundation, we will be able to further investigate the policy responses against the outbreaks of contagious diseases by improving heterogeneous properties of agents, which cannot be simulated in a SIR model. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2004.

关键词： Autonomous agents

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Transmission reliability and security under open access

Transmission reliability and security under open access

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IEEE General Meeting Power& Energy Society

作者： M. Ilic Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Engineering Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA USA

This paper suggests that many of these challenges are direct result of the institutional dichotomy within the once vertically integrated industry. Namely, while the generation portion of this industry has made major progress toward becoming for profit, value-based industry, both the delivery (transmission) and the end user (distribution) remainders are left without any clear institutional support to adjust and provide their value to the end users in the changing industry. This paper shows that in order to move forward and provide some more natural ways of valuing generation, transmission, distribution and customers' willingness to respond to the changing system constraints, several issues must be resolved. Some possible institutional and technological approaches to solving the system reliability problems in the changing industry were introduced in this presentation.

关键词： Power engineering and energy Electricity supply industry Power systems Investments Reliability engineering Power system planning Power system reliability Economic forecasting public policy Energy management

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