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SOME ISSUES IN ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS FROM INCOMPLETE COVARIATE data

Statistics in Medicine 1998年第1期16卷

作者： WERNER VACH Center for Data Analysis and Model Building and Institute of Medical Biometry and Informatics University of Freiburg Albertstr. 26-28 79104 Freiburg Germany

In evaluating prognostic factors by means of regression models, missing values in the covariate data are a frequent complication. There exist statistical tools to analyse such incomplete data in an efficient manner, and in this paper we make use of the traditional maximum likelihood principle. As well as an analysis including the incompletely measured covariates, such tools also allow further strategies of data analysis. For example, we can use surrogate variables to improve the prediction of missing values or we can try to investigate a questionable ‘missing at random’ assumption. We discuss these techniques using the example of a clinical study where one important covariate is missing for about half the subjects. Additionally we consider two further issues: evaluation of differences between estimates from a complete case analysis and analyses using all subjects and assessment of the predictive value of missing values. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Twenty-five thousand-year-old triple burial from Dolní Věstonice: An ice-age family?

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American Journal of Physical Anthropology 1998年第1期102卷

作者： Kurt W. Alt Sandra Pichler Werner Vach Bohuslav Klíma Emanuel Vlček Jurg Sedlmeier Institute of Forensic Medicine Düsseldorf University D-40225 Düsseldorf Germany Institute of Prehistory Freiburg University D-79085 Freiburg Germany Center for Data Analysis and Model Building Freiburg University D-79104 Freiburg Germany Archaeological Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences CR-66203 Brno Czech Republic Department of Anatomy 1 Faculty of Medicine Charles University CR-120 00 Praha 2 Czech Republic Department of Archaeology Kanton Basel-Landschaft CH-4410 Liestal Switzerland

In 1986 a palaeolithic triple burial was discovered near Dolní Věstonice (Czech Republic). The occurrence of anatomic variants in all three skeletons gave rise to speculations that the buried individuals may have been closely related. To test this hypothesis the skeletons were submitted to a systematic kinship analysis based on odontologic and other non-metric traits. Statistical tests showed that the coincident occurrence of several rare traits in the individuals is highly unlikely to occur at random. This and further data included in the analysis therefore suggest that the three individuals buried together were genetically related and actually belonged to one family. Am J Phys Anthropol 102:123–131. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

关键词： kinship analysis upper palaeolithic multiple burial biostatistics odontologic traits non-metric traits

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